Discussion on election 2020 and its implications for u. S. Foreign policy. Obviously over the weekend there have been rapid developments theres now a president elect joe biden after a tumultuous days for everyone and an election that was pretty close for many days, but now looks like we have a clear a clear winner. So we have a terrific panel this morning to discuss not so much the election, but really looking forward to next year to see what the implications are for u. S. Foreign policy for International Order and to pars maybe some of the nuances of last week and what they may mean, particularly the fact that trumpism is alive and well even though the president did not receive a second term and that the senate could be in the hands of republicans. We have eric edelman, practitioner in residence of johns hopkins. And a nonsenior fellow at brookings, and the important china center. Tamara, a senior fellow at center for middle east policy at Brookings Institution and victoria noonen, nonresidency new fellow for United States. All served either served in senior positions in government which i wont go into at the moment, but you can rest assured that they come equipped with decades of experience at the highest levels and evan has recently written a book on joe biden, which is titled im sorry, the title escapes me, but its sits off my jean there, joe biden life and times, what it means for the 2020 election. Evan, lets start with you, if we can. Joe biden has been an around long time as weve heard repeatedly from donald trump, hes been in office, out of office 47 years. He has a long track record, u. S. Foreign policy. In some ways, hes a very known quantity, but in other ways a bit of an enigma. His views have evolved a bit over time. He has a large team that has the debates about foreign policies that have been obscured a little by the trump show and many people bidens world were expecting a repudiation of donald trump an overwhelming victory that would send a message to the world. He has won a clear victory, more close and marginal than anticipated and he may well have a Republican Senate. He, of could,has said that his super power is working with republicans, working with people on the other side of the aisle. So as he sort of contemplates the first few days of his condition and the beginning of his term. How do you think he sort of intemperatures the results of last week, particularly with the view to what it means for his Foreign Policy and for the future sort of of americas global role. Thank you. Its great to be with my colleagues up here and all of you tuning in. Look, i think there are, as tom mentioned, i think there are in some ways elements of joe bidens mind, his approach to diplomacy as to domestic policy that we sometimes overlook or havent really studied in detail until just now and they can help us anticipate some of the things that i think were likely to see. Ill talk just for a minute here what i think we can broadly describe as an era of division at home and abroad and i think thats important as a defining piece of this, as a way of sort of understanding this period of structural and sustained hostility in the u. S. And many relationships which will have implications. Before we do that, i want to talk a minute about president elect bidens theory of diplomacy because when you talk to him about how he thinks about diplomacy, which is something he cares a great deal about, he will tell you that he draws somewhat of a distinction between the way that is conventionally practiced. He said to me at one point. Sometimes diplomates get tired because i will say to them im not going to go into a room and say what you want me to say exactly as you wrote it herement and his basic view, baghdad, beijing, dont tell another person what their interests are. Thats his fundamental idea. Theyll have a notion of their interests and people said, in my experience, people are generally not open to being persuaded that their own calculations and interest is wrong. You have to show them the basic elements of recognition that youre hearing. Youre listening. You dont have to pretend you agree, but if you continue begin from the position that they understand their interests, you have an advantage other why you tell them theyre wrong. I think another piece of this thats meaningful is, joe biden and barack obama actually had some a very important thing that bound them together when they were joined together on this ticket. Now, often times and vicepresident s and president s, it was the basic unification, they used different tools to do it. In president obamas case he had a kind of transcendent story, his own literally his own personal story and the power of his eloquence, of his political rhetoric was able to at home and abroad trying to restore some element of the american image and american credibility. That was his approach. And you saw that in the significance of his speeches and so on. President elect biden has a different view. He does not pretend, frankly that, he has that kind of american story that can communicate what the future of the United States is likely to be. What he says is, in fact, i have the relationships, i have the kind of fundamental person to person contact and most of all, i believe that if you go back to that first principle, that you acknowledge that somebody elses interest may be legitimate that thats the basis for a meaningful discussion and ill just very briefly mention one other thing with his it is significant that he knows a lot of these people. And one point to me, used to have foreign leaders that went in the senate with joe biden for a long time. We had have foreign leaders come all the time to the senate and my job was to go around and introduce the foreign leaders and over here is senator soandso and then the foreign leaders would say, hi, joe. They just knew him and at a moment like now, when the United States looks frankly unfamiliar in so many ways now, in the nature of its politics, the nature of our division, to our friends and opponents abroad, an element of recognizability is a political asset that i think we sometimes discount. Im going to save specific comments about all of the various specific domaindomains, china, europe, elsewhere because i think my colleagues will get them and go to specifics in q a. Thank you, evan and tamara you served as Deputy Assistant secretary of state for the middle east for middle Eastern Affairs in the first term of the Obama Administration. You had the opportunity to work with then vicepresident bide p. Well get into the middle east part of it later on, i think, in the discussion. Just as a question on his sort of outlook, how it might have changed following the election last week. What hes sort of thinking what do you think hes thinking about the problems hes facing the world with a still very divided country at home and is his Foreign Policy likely to be different this week than it might have appeared just before the election . Oh, wow. I think that last is a difficult question, but let me try on start with the broader outlook question. I think that one thing weve seen from joe biden throughout his career, whether its in domestic policy, Foreign Policy, or in politics itself, is an ability to learn and grow and change. You know, this is not his first run for the presidency. And he, you know, across his career, i think, has just gotten better and better and better at what he does. What evan pointed out about his determination to empathize and to seek out Common Ground, i think these are elements of practical diplomacy that will serve him very well. And you know, hes got the background to hit the ground running, but the challenge he faces coming in in january is how much the ground has shifted since he was in the vicepresidency. Thats very true in the middle east, where weve seen historic developments over the last deca decade, some of which he was in office for, some of which he was not, but its true across the board. The global geo politics have changed. Transatlantic partners are in a different place than four years ago and theres a degree of uncertainty in Global Politics that i think has led a number of our traditional partners to engage in selfhelp over the course of the Trump Administration and its not simple to unwind that. So i think his capacity to learn and grow is going to be put to use very, very quickly. But i think that hell probably root himself in some of the Common Ground hes found with partners in the past. Whether that is, you know, on the iranian channel, on counterterrorism, on strengthening our port of coalition of democracies across the world, which is something he spoke about a lot during the campaign. But its hard to see how to put meat on the bones of all of those good intentions without those deep conversations with his foreign interlocutors to hear from them and find that Common Ground. No doubt, theres a lot of prep work thats been going on, but he will be reaching out and having had a lot of conversations. Hell want to hear it for himself and, you know, hes not going to be able to put these things on pause while he figures it out. Thank you. Thank you tamara. Thats fascinating. If we could turn to you next. I mean, you have served in very senior positions in the republican administrations. What do you think Mitch Mcconnell and, i guess, the Foreign Policy oriented senators are thinking at the moment . I mean, theres a id say a better than 5050 chance that they retain control. Senate following the runoff in georgia january 5th and we need to see the results. If youre looking at it now, theres probably a decent chance theyll remain in control and theyll have control basically of the nomination process, nell have considerable oversight and obviously, theyre necessary for any legislation to pass, its been a pretty divided election, weve already seen some senators come out and basically back Donald Trumps theory of the case. So, what do you think mcconnell and some of the other senators are thinking . And is there sort of a prospect for cooperation between a Biden Administration and Republicancontrolled Senate . Well, thanks, tom. First, its great to be here with you and all of my colleagues here with whom i have all sorts of unusual ties. I mean, we succeeded each other in a variety of positions in government. Tammys parents were exceedingly kind to me when i was ambassador in turkey and evans grandparents lived in the same neighborhood that my grandparents in manhattan. Its a great panel and im thrilled to be part of it. The Republican Party, certainly the Republican Party of Ronald Reagan has been shattered and is beyond recognition in terms of its approach to National Security policy. I think that for those of us who were never trump republicans and i was part of two different groups of that ilk that endorsed vicePresident Biden, we had hoped as you said a bigger repudiation of trump and trumpism and we didnt get it. I think that vicepresident is going to win a pretty solid victory when all votes are counted, likely to have a slightly higher margin than barack obama did against mitt romney, but its still not the repudiation of trumpism that might have served as a helping cleanser of the republican tendency to, particularly in the senate, to enable president trumps worst instincts and you can see that already in whats happened in the postelection period when a number of republicans in the senate have jumped like trained seals to respond to tweets from donald, jr. , et cetera, about defending his fathers, you know, totally undemocratic efforts to cast doubt on the results of the election, which i think is really dangerous for our democracy. And benefits only one person, which is vladimir putin. Might also benefit xi jinping. Might be more than one. What will happen in senate, i think senator mcconnell, i think leader mcconnells instincts remain sort of traditional, internationalist, conservative internationalist. He does have a longstanding relationship with vicePresident Biden. I think hits instincts is going to want to be pragmatic to get some things done. And i think, in fact, probably some contacts are already beginning to happen between vicePresident Bidens folks and congressional staffers on the republican side. So, i think thats, you know, all to the good, but leader mcconnells going to have a very large challenge and that is going to be that the Election Results are likely to have ratified in the minds of a number of people that the problem was not the message, it was the messenger, that this was a, you know, repudiation of trump, but not necessarily of trumpism. And that therefore, a hostility to trade agreements, hostility to our alliances are, you know, going to be the ticket to success in 2024 and that trump lane, i think, is going to be very crowded with a number of candidates. And many of them are going to try and soak the trump base and win it over for themselves and to win donny, jr. And president trumps impremator by leading resistance to a Biden Administration. I think that mcconnell is going to have a tough row to hoe himself. Hes going to need some help from the biden team in helping manage that. Particularly i dont think its going to be as big an issue in confirmation for cabinet positions, but the subcabinet positions, i think, na are open for confirmation are going to be a bigger batt battleground and thats going to require some very dexterous cooperation on both sides which i hope happens because that will be good for the country. Thank you, eric. Victor victoria, youve served not just in the Obama Administration as assistant secretary of europe, but also in several other administrations in both parties as a Foreign Service officer, very senior levels. Picking up where eric left off, if we are likely to see sort of a continuation of trumpism in the Republican Party and in the senate, would you still have some of those internationalist elements there and you have a President Biden who is sort of naturally inclined to bipartisanship. What do you think the best prospects are to sort of recreate, if not the bipartisan concensus, at least sort of a strong bipartisan view, maybe not shared by everybody in each party on americas leadership role internationally . Welcol, thanks, tom, its great to be with everybody on this morning and patriots and served their countries so well. Listen, biden came up, along with most of the senior members of the senate, in a period where the fundamental underpinning was that political fights ended at the waters edge and when you went out into the world, you went out as a unified and ideally a bipartisan front to talk to allies and adversaries alike about the challenges and about and to represent the United States. I think that will be bidens instinct trying to reach out to the mcconnells and burrs and cornyns and traditional republicans of his generation, but i think that eric is not wrong that on the Foreign Policy and security side, we dont know yet what those who will posture for the trump voters of 2024, the younger folks will take from the Foreign Policy agenda of trump. I thought it was pretty interesting that throughout the trump period even as some of the more trumpians punishing those on the trade side, the trump hostility toward nato, even toward the eu as an institution or towards allies in general, and over the period of the Trump Administration, this america go it alone, america unilateralism did not have popular support. Public opinion polling for institutions like nato and the u. N. Went up over this period. And i think that reflects the fact that the American People never really did buy that its better for us, cheaper for us to take on issues like china, issues like the new National Security challenges from hightech like artificial intelligence, kwquantum, et cetera, if we could do it with allies it would be cheaper and more persuasive for us, secondarily, doing it all alone puts all of the burden of things like sanctions on china put it on america than a broader, and i think biden will try to build a Bipartisan Coalition for american leadership, i think there will be a demand on the republican side for a more rigorous approach to some things, china in particular, than they may have seen from the Obama Administration, but as tammy said, i think thats where president elect biden as his team have evolved, anyway, that its time to be far more organized structured, rigorous and strong as a Democratic Community in the way we approach russia, china, and some of these other challenges from authoritarians who want to change the rulesbased system in their favor. So, i think he will make a strong effort. I just wanted to underscore a couple of things that evan said as somebody, you know, who had the honor of travelling with biden and watching him work as a u. S. Diplomate in the last in the Obama Administration. Not only does he start from the premise that you cant tell somebody else what their interests are, he starts by trying to understand what the other person on the other side of the table thinks their interests are. And then what their political environment is. Where their room to maneuver is. And then to try to call the interlocutor on the other side of the table to their higher angels