I have the pleasure today of moderating this conversation between two outstanding policymakers and scholars. And the us china relationship. And working in the Defense Department and mongolia and the commissioner congressionally mandated Security Review Commission and the author of a terrific new book which is called the china nightmare. And we will be talking about it with him and with retired Lieutenant General hr mcmaster. And a reputation and military service one of those adaptive mines in the American Military i am delighted to have both of them here with us today. I am sorry neglected to say hr is also the author of a new book called battleground. Thank you both for making time for china policy. Thank you very much thank you for your leadership at aei and mr. Mcmaster for joining us. And to have reshaped china policy last few years. I am very thankful as we all are for doing that. The china nightmare, what does my book mean by that . China certainly has grand ambitions and power but also and with those chinese language documents and then nightmare the tagline is a strong nation and a strong power beset by weaknesses and those that are much more known to the crowd are the strengths they had the weaknesses. Often is overworked it is arguably the last remaining empire in the world if you look very carefully at the map of the last chinese dynasty juxtapose the people republic of china today with a very very similar imagine the Ottoman Empire that turks claiming the middle east and never broke up. Thats important because china claims the territories and taiwan is considered the last holdout of the chinese dynasty dynasty. And then that genocide a way that they are considered places that china needs to keep hold to maintain the empire. Meaning president xi has exhorted a nervous control over this empire. No doubt is a powerful figure. And then as we get into soon as opposed to his weaknesses. And the constitution of china if he had no successor. And pratt inject ability into the system. So strength and ambitio ambition, military power and has become a lethal military force. Maybe not passive the use of that military power every day. And to push the territorial ambition around india. And then to reshape with extremely beneficial to the world with the community have, and destiny which we all know very much about. With these initiatives to reshape the order with the geopolitical forum. With a Strategic Network partners that are part of this initiative more political and economic. Other strategies and tactics including our friends in australia and new zealand in europe and with that chinese agents trying to coopt the elites and to bring western elites into line with their own policy and to have a very strong view the way it once the world order to look and it would be much more corrupt. Them out for good purposes or nefarious purposes. And those are the ambitions that china has. It is competing with the United States. And elsewhere as well. But then to talk about this in some detail china also weaknesses of securities and from abilities and in that lead document in 2013 and it identifies in some degree of detail and with the law and governance to crack down on the education and system. And with those western ideas. And the economy has been slowing for a very long time. And 2008 depending on when you calculate it and then they decided to stop under tremendous political pressure and stop the process of political and economic reform. So now the state sector has come roaring back and talks about how is a socialist economy. And a state run system creating a lot of debt in china with a drag on the economy. And a misallocation of capital and Property Rights and with that question of demography in china. China is getting old as we speak the largest country to get old before it gets rich. The demography will look like europes by 2030. The only growing cohort in china is that 50 through 64 yearold cohort so that generation will be very large. And with the fiscal strains on the system. The key weakness in china. Was 700 billion with safe places like the United States and australia they are trying to send their kids abroad not depending on the future in china. And there are more fractures in the regime which my book gets into the detail. And the struggle with legitimacy. It is terribly afraid. And president xi tries to play against that. So whats the nightmare . That doesnt mean the show sitting back and then acting aggressively on the international stage. That is prominent right now. And in the International System and that so on officials realizing there was an epidemic on their hand or the pandemic they were too afraid because of the incentives of the political system to report the problems to president xi and clampdown on any bad news. It was festering in one anyone who discussed or came forward to say we could have a pandemic was silenced. Millions of people left wuhan before the rest of the world was told about the nature of the problem. People left and infected the rest of the world. We still dont know to this day how many people were infected in china or have died from the disease or the real story of the economic wreckage. We may never know. And to embed in the International System in china does not sit still one is under pressure president xi is under tremendous pressure to face a eternal backlash at home. And the tycoon following millions of people and criticize for being incompetent and an emperor who has no close. And then to mishandle covid with the International Backlash against them. They dont back down from the pressure. Meant to be suffering from covid to pick a fight with india. And to bully australia to have the temerity to have an investigation of the origins of covid. And with the chinese disinformation campaign. Marching into hong kong to remove the hope for any democracy during this time. So then nightmare scenario that is a get more frustrated they would try to compensate with more external aggression and that is what we have seen. I will wrap up before i turned over to general mcmaster for comments. And then questions. The book doesnt have that many suggestions for policy which is to say that any competitive strategy by definition has to put her strength against chinas weaknesses and has tremendous weaknesses there is a lot more we can do to show china that fear will come to fruition and working more closely with allies to make sure we keep military power strong around china. And more emphasis the delegitimization and then to defend itself with propaganda and those that we can press on the key is to moderate china as behavior to make sure its on a defense and not the offense rather than having to defend the health system. Hope to get more into that in the question and answer period. I hope you read the book. I will turn it over to general mcmaster. And with aei and we been here many years and they have the best scholarship thinking of the challenge we are facing internationally. Its great to be with you and to celebrate the gift you have given us. Is not a happy story but it is important and at the right time. Is arriving just in time in connection with the Chinese Communist party to have a global pandemic. And it is a dangerous time as leaders, despite those weaknesses and concerns also believe the United States is weekend with a combination crisis we are going through and the pandemic recession the social and political divisions from George Floyds murder and the environment here during a president ial election because those leaders are of relative advantage that describes so much in the book to believe theres only a fleeting window of opportunity. Dangerous because the party not only celebrates the effort with that power internally but exporting more aggressively as it employees the strategy of concealment. It is dangerous because the system the Party Leaders envision and has exclusionary areas across the pacific and beyond and also dangerous because of persuasion and sophisticated forms that threaten to reshape the International Order toward china it is dangerous because this is the ambition to achieve supremacy because many leaders across the endo pacific and the world are not doing enough to compete effectively and if they help the party conceal the aggression with freedom of societies of the false promises and then to go across the free world the recent opening of the Financial Markets to compensate for those weaknesses especially those associated with increasing levels of debt. And then the achieving economic privacy so that burke has arrived just in time with the call to wake up from then nightmare and realize we do have an agency and influence with the Chinese Communist party. What your book argues for is what the party views as a weakness that we have a say of how we are governed and freedom of speech antennas into competitive advantages. We have an approach to the competition of the Chinese Communist party to be engaged in. But the time is come to reject the false dilemma and then the false dilemma that you are accommodating with the party and that would be a disastrous war. It plays out in the book between those extremes and i would argue the accommodation would make conflict more likely that it advocates and those that from china and the free world word argue in favor of accommodating with the free world the client to see the party strengthen those weaknesses with regard to that as monolithic. Just in time for a new administration. And with those false promises of cooperation. And with missile programs. Not only a grave threat of the party design but also weaknesses that are extremely compelling and realize that we do not compete effectively the Chinese Communist party from what they described to be less free and less prosperous and less safe we have work to do a look forward to the conversation and thank you again for producing the right book at the right time. Your comments are a nice reminder and i have long been a fan in the journal our survival. You make a strong case with a change of american attitude. I would be curious when she will notice that change . If you are the architect of the Trump Administration foreignpolicy the National Security strategy i would be interested in both of your perspective. When that realization first came for you . When did china do something that alerted you that the notion that we card cooperate and include them into being a responsible stakeholder went to the rest of us notice . I am a bit of an outlier i was at the pentagon. Look at the military buildup the number of people advocating a more intense focus chinas focus on us of how successful we were and how they were going it is quite open about the fact so some caution back then you can go through the list looking back to join the 1000 ship navy that could be tougher action with the provocative anti satellite test in 2007 so in china started to push at the South China Sea and so forth. But by 2000 and are 2010 or 2011 and then they started to throw their weight around and that they are really trying to undermine the influence and the position. As a National Security advisor to be associated with china spending my career in europe and south asia. As a military officer and a student of International Relations and then to have the Reform Movement if that is and discernible that china would be more aggressive. Going back to the was a military competition. With the hundred percent increase since the mid nineties. They were little bit ahead. And from the responsible stakeholder speech that is criticized to become a responsible stakeholder and then also laid out and those that are aware of it in those certainly it all came to a head on 2017 especially in connection with the South China Sea and then it goes back to the financial crisis when china was emboldened and to have some things to teach them as other financial crisis they thought maybe they would be more aggressive. But then right at the breakpoint President Trump had run on the china position already and of the National Security council i had a couple of excerpts in the fundamental assumption and with that governance to hold true and with that British Foreign policy since the end of the cold war. And with that bipartisan approach with a strong recognition across both parties we have to compete we have vacated that competition so that is reentering a lot of these arenas. It seems that whether you disagree to still have the same objective that china plays by the rules of the international economy, the existing International Order. But in the National Security strategy you are advocating the what you are arguing for it is a different strategy that doesnt believe that you have to abandon the trajectory and then to follow the chinese from their strong suits. Is that a different objective from before . Yes. Good question. Some of them are very shortterm with the enormous momentum over the course of the last decade. And for what tools are necessary to put china back on its heels which china has started to a certain extent. And playing by the rules, i would say that as long as the ccp under president xi or others doesnt want to play by the rules. They have a lot of rules. They are very clear with those rules should be. So we have to either create tremendous pressure on the system so china decides by itself its moving in the wrong direction while absolutely pulling out the welcome hand to say weve always been on the side of china to quiet and extent from those missionary emissions from world war ii and into the charter member of the un Security Council weve always been on the side of china. We cannot be on the side of this china but we can foresee a china that has a more decent and just government from within a more moderate see ccp then we can see them to accept many of the rules benefiting them to see the f no plausible path. But those are pretty slim. But what you are laying out is the right approach with the chinese leadership over time to have enough of their dream and to achieve enough without doing so at the express rights of their own people or at our expense with that model to remake the International Order with the profound disadvantage. Going forward, its important for us to recognize the nature of this competition in perpetuating it. And our discussions are selfreferential. Just because donald trump is so mean that president xi is acting out. Thats not it at all. The Chinese Communist party only ambitions are independent. So dont think like that first of all. And its important to recognize this is not a us china problem. That it is a world china problem and will require international cooperation. So we can compete with the Worlds Largest economies coming together and to tell china you cannot do the new world order that a stable to you and unfavorable to us. There is a saying or the phrase that obama used during the last days of the engagement strategy was a hopeful strategy not grounded in reality. We have more fear from a week china. Not trying to keep them down the part of that direction of the Chinese Communist party requires us to be much more competitive. We have had an avalanche of Great Questions from people participating so with the suppression of driven by the local see ccp officials and the implications within the party. Great question. Absolutely. Fear reporting to the central authorities so as president xi has created a party and bureaucracy that cannot function without his decisionmaking and a few of the key lieutenants. So that is not to bring that information. Not a big surprise to combine that with the great point but the system has changed. It has really changed. And then to open up for cooperation. But there is no question that wuhan officials were waiting for guidance and afraid to give them bad news or wouldnt act without guidance from the system and with the totalitarian system and the implications, thats why it is so hard and im not giving up on reforms in china but many people are. Because there is a room for localities and provinces to experiment on those policies of Public Health. Shows president xi is paralyzing the functioning of the chinese state. So can you take a swing at this one if china was to change the world order then if its difficult to govern a large country like china can they take on the Greater China area . Thats a great question. I think china has been successful creating relationships with people in the region but its also soliciting the way we hear from our friends from singapore the vietnamese friends. Dont ask us to choose between the United States and china. We are asking you with the servitude because and the citizens of these whether physical so i think china is actually succeeding. But typically they have success in corrupt regimes because of the new vanguard that is a Bank Official holding back on the cash. So this goes to the point and then to help countries develop the rule of law and freedom of press and pull the current back. And people having a say. One of the best journalist on china and australia was groundbreaking and the full range of the parties activities that there was a government and so there are many examples of. But we are not help us here we can compete effectively with a free and open society. I really love the way you framed the choice not just the us china but between sovereignty and servitude that is really pow