Buckeye broadband support cspan as a Public Service along with thesether television providers. Giving you a front row seat to democracy. [background noises] [inaudible conversations] [inaudible conversations] [inaudible conversations] good morning everyone. Welcome to the launch event for 202323 Agency International outlook. The director of the Climate Change program and i cannot tell you how excited i am for todays event. This is an event on a biannual basis. One of the things we get most excited about not just in the United States but the world. As we try to consider plans for our Energy Future. I have to say our colleagues at the eia gets harder and harder each year to think about the pace of Prospective Energy and think about the challenges. And im obligated to buy you ice cream. So thank you very much for joining us today. If youre watching live, there should be a question live on the event page. We will see some of the key outputs this morning from director and colleague angelina. We will talk about how policymakers, industry people, how Civil Society should look where it fits into the broader constellation. Thank you again for joining us and director, if you would like to come up. The podium to you, sir. All right. Yeah. All right. Good morning, everyone. Its an honor to be able to kick off our presentation of the International Energy outlook for 2023 and before i get started i just want today give a huge thanks to the eia staff, theres just enormous amount of effort that goes into doing the analys delivering, delivering reports so i want to thank them and i also want to thank joseph and the csis staff for hosting this event. I want to talk a little bit about what eia does. Among other things that means that we ar vested with the unique authority to collect energy data fm u. S. Industry and that data published. Its used by skeholders. One of the things that we do is use data intnally to inform our model projections and so we view our data as a critical source of infortion within the United States. The other thing is that by law all of our products are independent of approval by any other officer or member of the u. S. Government and we really prize that independence, its very important to us. The Energy Outlook explores longterm trends and Energy Supply and demand around the reworld. Okay, so whats new in this years report, well, youll see similar looking field. Youre going to see improvements in the narrative so i have a background in modeling myself and i think its really important that analysts and modelers be able to explain results and translate into a realworld context and the oy way to do that is to foc on e narrative. So theres that. You will see technical notes appear in the light blue boxes within the narrative and thats an opportunity t te a deeper tenical diver on particular subjects for readers who might bee interested. Inhiwe have 3 technical notes, there one focused on our electric vehicle projections, representation storage in the Electricity Sector and then our representation of global refineries we also emphasize the range of results around the cases that we that we model, again, similar to the adl and this idea we are also introducing new cases that focus on examining the capital cost societied with associated with zero Carbon Technologies. We have 16 different regions and we think they offer better geographic alignment. We have a brandnew oil and natural gas supply module thats been incorporated into our modeling framework so you will be seeing the results from that. We have increased the resolution in our electricity model. So we nowtr model Electricity Supply and demand across 288 separate time slices and thats really important to model wind, solar, battery and dispatch and russia whole scale invasion of ukraine. you will see a whole appendix where we go sector by sector and what assumptions we have made and how we informed our analysis. I want to talk a little bit about the case that is we model in the ido. The first thing i want to poi out is that we only model current laws and regulations and we freeze our consideration of current laws and regulations as of march of 2023. Okay,his isas looking at policiund the world. For United States in particular the resultst we present are from our annual gy outlook. The results will be same and those policy assumptions frozen in november 2022. These assumptions about policy carry through all of the cases that we model. Okay, getting onto the specific cases. We have our reference case. In the reference case we are assuming that gdp grows at 2. 6 annually. We assume that the prize of crude start at 102 a barrel. Varies a bit and ends up close to 102 a barrel again in 2050. We also assume that there are reductions in the cost of zero Carbon Technologies and i should mention those technologies are wind, solar, batteries and nuclear. And they can achieve Cost Reduction up to 20 in the reference ca the way we handle this is t technological learning, so e time the capacity of one of those technologies doubles, theres theres a reduction theres a red in cost. So second set of cases focuses on Economic Growth. High case its 3. 4 and i will say the macro cases have a big impact on the results because when you have high macro both that leads to high enduse demand and in turn requires higher supplies of energy and then the congress is true when you have lower macro growth it means lower enduse demand and, before, less Energy Supplies is required. Next we have our Oil Oil Price h trajectory. We have low and a high. These are formulated outside of the model framework and they become an input. So on the low case we assume that brink crude, high case, 187 a barrel in 2050. And then finally, again, the zero Carbon Technology cost assumptions, this is new to this ido. In the low case we at what the cost that was achieved for each of those technologies in reference case and then we look at a trajectory that t us 40 below that cost. And then the high case we just assume constant constant cost through the projection horizon. These are the highlights from this years report. The first is that increase in population and income offset the effects of carbon and emissions and i will providing details in a moment on tha regional Resources Technology s costs an policy and finally, Energy Security concerns, transition from fossil fuels in some countries although they drive increase consumption in others. Im going to give, you know, some highlevel view of that and angelina is going to add some additional detail. Theres some things that i want you to keep in mind. It looks like okay. Theres some things that i want you to keep in mind as you as youu look at these at these results. When we model these cases we take a deliberately restrictive approach in the ieo and the way i would characterize cases that are plausible but silver. Here are some of the assumptions we have made. As i said we only account for current policies and we are looking at policies that are legally enforceable, right, we dont model aspirations or targets unless theres a legally enforceable policy that backs backs it up. Second, we look at evolutionary rates of technological change that are based on recent history and then third, we dont consider sweeping changes and Consumer Preferences or major geopolitical event that is can produce change or shift trajectory of the system. Now, its certainly possible that those things can happen, entirely policy, we could get newsi policies, there could be unforeseeable events that we dont model and thats exactly why you should not think of the ieo as a forecast. Were trying to do something here. What we are doing is providing a set of policy neutral baselines that focus on the current trajectory of the Energy System and i think that that actually provides a really useful point of reference for decisionmakers against they canhi judge future acts and developments. Okay. The so this brings us to our first set of results. Across most of the cases we find that Energy Related to admissions continue to rise through 50 under current laws. So,h again, we have regional models, 16 h regions. Im showing the results aggregated to the global scale and the bands around the reference case show the full rangecross all of the cases that we model. So moving left to right, we have global versus domestic product rowhich is which is you cn tell its growing very rapidly, okay. H in the mide we havein primary energy usage, ain, you can see upward trend a then finally into the rig we have energyrelated co2 emissions in each of the 3 panels are due to high a low macro cases. They are setting the bounds on each of these. One thing thats interesting is as you look from left to right you notice that the slope of the the cone keeps decreasing, right, so gdp is growing the fastest and then primary energy and finally Energy Related co2 has the least slope. So to get some more insight we can further break this those 3 panels down into four panels and some of you might immediately recognize this as the terms inhe identity so, again,oving from left to right,e have global population, you notice theres no gray band therere because we assume oops, sry. One population projection that carries through all the cases that were that were melg. Next gdp for capita which is a rough measure of per capita annual income. Next Energy Intensity and next Carbon Intensity whi i the amount of carbons you get f unit of energy. The uncertainty bounds inhe two middle panels, again, are being set by the high and low macro cas and for Carbon Intensity not surprisingly by zeroCarbon Technology cost cases. If you take the product of the first 3 terms you get total Global Energy consumption. If you take thehe product of the four terms which is the way the identity is designed you get total global co2 emissions. You can see clearly that population perla capita they are increasing at a pretty fast rate and this makes sse. You can see at the same time we are getting we are able t use less dolrer value and for every unit of erg we consumer with admitting less Carbon Emissions and that brings us to the insight of the title which is the upward pressure of population and gdp tends downward pressure from reduced energy Carbon Intensity over time. Again, we can disaggregate further. This is looking att gdp growth rates by region in the model. Again, 16 regions. We have the highincome countries on the left. We have the lowincome countries on the right. And i will just point out that india has the the highest average gdp growth rate but it vari quite a while by region, so when i prese results at a global scale remember that theres all of this detail under the surface. We can also look at total energy and break that disaggregate that a little bit. Here we are looking at fossil fuels versus nonfossil fuels and what we find is that increase in demand in current policies drive steady growth and fossil energy but even faster growth in ennonfossil sources. So, again, you can see the reference cases aligned, the bands represent the the range across the cases. With fossil which is the black and gray, it start at 505 quads in 2022 and then it grows anywhere from 1 to 40 depending on the case and then with nonfossils, this would include all of the renewables and nuclear, we start at 133 quads but that grows anywhere from 70 to 125 by 2050. So wind and solar in particular are growing at a remarkably fast rate and, again, you can see that by this increase slope associated with the blue line. Okay. We can break it down a little bit further here. So we are looking at fossil versus nonfossil but we have broken that down to specific fuel types. So you see the stacked bar for 2022, the black outline represents all the fossil sources t gray outlines represents all of the nonfossil resources so weveot 2022 all the way to the left and a the other bars represent a snapshot across the cases i 2050. How eh of these fuel types is is chaing over over time. Generally what we find is that fossil fuels hold onto the share throug time but the renewables really pick up and and most of that Renewable Development is taking place in the Electricity Sector sopm we find that if you look at the Electricity Sector renewables plus nuclear combined represent roughly 55 to to 65 of global Electricity Supply in 2050 across, again, across the cases. Now, obviously theres a lot going on here at the regional level. There are regional pat herbs patterns and that will depend on trade patterns and the cost of global resources. Okay. With that, im going to go back to the highlights and turn it over to angelina la rose who is stour assistant administrator. Good morning. Im going to keep on with the trend of breaking things down and go into more details surrounding our highlights. I do encourage you all to take a deeper dive into our website following this event where we have a lot of data and analysis that we will be posting. But for now im going the walk you through some of the interesting finds that were made highlights starting with the first one about increasing population and income driving the growth and consumption Energy Related emissions despite energy and carbon intensities. So what this slide is showing Energy Consumption by sector. As joe orient today you all, the solid line reference case in a range the the area represents the range of productions from our side cases. So any Energy Consumption growth across all sectors through 2050 and across all cases. As you can see on this slide, the industrial sector shown in green which includes manufacturing, refining and other sub sectors has the largest share of Energy Consumption and also has the largest share of growth through 2050. The industrial sector hashe widest range of consumption across thes cases due to the broad range of industrial output assumptions across the cases and sectoral sensitivity to economic drivers. Ke the highest growth we see in the industrial sector comes from our highest case reaching 1. 7 year but even in our low Economic Growth case we see increasing windustrial Energy Consumption. So this slide is very similar to what we just saw but its looking at liquids consumption across cases and sectors. Similar to what we saw in the last chart, liquid consumption also continues to rise through 2050. And the fastest growth in liquid consumption comes from our industrial sector. Following use of the industry, like chemical production as well asas diesel fuel, construction d agricultural equipment. So those transportation still maintain largest share of liquids consumption. Its growth is tempered by efficiency gains and the shift toward electric vehics, however, overall theres growth in theal liquids consumption driven by the growth in industrial and transportation. So im going to take a closer look at the industrial consumption. This slide is looking focusing on industrial consumption in china and india in particular. So across the goal while we are projecting increasing Energy Consumption in the industrial sector we a seeing declining Energy Intensity. At a regional level there are two prevailing drivers of Energy Consumption in the industrial sector. These are industrial growth outputs which is a measure of Economic Activity and Energy Efficiency or eney intensity. So we see different trajectors in china and india. As you can see on the left, in china some cases industrial sector consumption declining or leveling off compared to india where we have growth in all the cases. In china, slowing industrial growth output aft 24 combined with Significant Energy deficiency gains slows and decreases industrial Energy Consumption in some cases. In particular, china is projected to significantly increase its production of recycled fuel which is significantly less than Energy Intensive. In india the growth and industrial growth output which more thanh triples in most cases and even quinttuples, its the main driver of that sectors increase in india. India specifically sees growth and Energy Intensive industries so primary metals, chemicals and not metallic minerals. Im shifting to the transportation sector. Theres a lot on thislide. On the right travel demand by mode in 2025. Index 20250. When we project travel demand its prepandemic levels. Loing at the graph on the left the tvel demand is growing, travel demand isov highly sensitive to changes in disposable income per capita as well as employment and there are several interesting findings at the regional level. Much of this growth is concentrated in india where both disposal income and employment has grown over the projection period. Regions with slower Income Growth such as africa continue to see growth and travel demand because off increases in inemployment but to a less degree. A in regions w