[background noises] think you guys so much. Thank you for being here. Im Lisa Freedman report on the some reporter for the New York Times and im very gratefulul to have 2dollar pans beginning with this one that is really going to drill down into a lot of the things that are covered. First let me introduce our panel all the way to my far right that director at the center and regulation markets at the Brookings Institution. The bernard l. Schwartz chair of policy development and the fellow in economic studies at berkeley and the fellow for the initiative for disabled energy policy. Adie tamer in the center is a senior fellow at Brookings Metro and an expert on infrastructure policy and urban economics. With a particular focus on transportation and digital technology. He hedine is working to better understand infrastructure policies from theic federal levl and how they Impact Economic Development social prosperity and and directly to my left Glenn Rudebusch a senior nonresident senior fellow at the Brookings Institution with a volatility and risk institute. And glenn played a key role in Climate Centers for cash considerations on research and policy but i think all of you for being herere today. I had a larger introduction planned but im think theres much i can say about the Inflation Reduction Act that john podesta didnt go over so im going to repeat a couple of key statistics. Companies have announced over 115 billion in Clean Energy Manufacturing investments in the last year that have created 170,000 Clean Energy Jobs and document more than foreign 70 billion in the supply chain and 10 billion in manufacturing. This isnt just industrial policy but but this is Climate Policy and want to start with President Biden has said he would cut u. S. Emissions 50 to 52 below 2005 levels by the end of the decade. The ira combined with regulations is estimated to get us to about 40 . First lets start with what has happened already. Whatrt do we know about how far the ira has gotten in reducing the emissions. This is the billion dollar question. As you mentioned the first part is what are they intending to do and when you look at the life of models that came out before the ira they take us from 25 to 28 reduction in business as usual to 40 to 44 . And this is the plan. The question is how much does that plan materialized in here its much more complicated because we dont have a central tracking system or Accounting System to see how many emissions are happening what are these investments facilitating in the economy so this is the keyed difference from the europeans because the europeans had a price in 2000 lives of every facility had to publish admissions data. Its easier to count for it and the ira what we need is very good date in very Good Research to see whether its working or not. Allow the Big Investments worked in a much longer timeframe so we cant say yet whether the emissionsr reductions are happening as planned. What we do see a is definitely e ira has catalyzed a lot of Market Forces that existed before h the ira as a conditiono a lowcarbon economy and the Market Dynamics and these original Market Forces in an accelerated way towards decarbonization has attracted lot of investments that we talked about the europeans before. They are worried aloud that companies are deciding to invest in the u. S. Rather than europe echoes of the ira so the biggest effect weve seen so far is the dynamism in the marketplace and investors to put private and public money into the at market. Do we know if its working as an emissions reduction tool. We will have the way to few years to see if cars for instance. Well get a better sense in the power sector is its more visible. Again allowed that depends on permitting like i mentioned before lot of it depends on whether its being taken up bush was baked into the models but we can only see it as it plays out. Thats an excellent point Emissions Reductions are not guaranteed. Does depend on whether people take up the electric vehicles as opposed to combustion vehicles and whether we use the electric heat pumps in solar panels and the like. Adie david bret up in the last panel with john podesta that. Though recognition rate of the ira. What did you see as john seemed to indicate its just a matter of time. You thinkk thats true and is this the failure of the administration or the failure of media and whats happening. First of all thank you and thanks brookings for putting us on and for all of you for joining us today. With the level of humility i think this is going to be a permanent challenge. Youve got all the recipes here to have difficulty breaking through to the public that has a certain amount of skepticism of what government delivers for it. I am reminded and flipping through the brookings cedar key will the prior recovery. And how difficult it was in many the pop of remember they put logos on Infrastructure Projects under the t tyga Grant Program d Others Program and other senate really struggled struggle to break through. Those are publicly owned apps. Now we are talking about tax credits moving through the system where you are often procuring a privately manufactured product for seeing a change in the energy coming into your system and is this clean food delivered by a private Company Along with transmission and Distribution System youve never understood and that is the challenge. You pack all of that up where Peoples Trust in civic institutions is way down. And you have an entire twoparty system one side of the coin trying to throw shade of east and public messaging and back home they are more willing to cut ribbonss and facilities in their district. Thats all wrapped up in communication challenges. Frankly i think its far bigger than any administration can solve. Its inherent in the process so i think we have got some kind of the underbrush here to deal with and i say this as a noncommunication expert. We work in infrastructure though and theres a joke on the right side which is a huge actual carbon emitter that freight doesnt things should up your home and never expected to work in but it doesnt its hard to understand why. The ira is a perfect metaphor for what they will try to bring through here. We heard from john podesta this is not going away. I want to get to thego Financial Markets and you were saying and we were talking backstage while consumers are learning about the ira possesses notes that we was available. We see a lot of interest in the Business Community and the venture capitol and as i mentioned vlad affirms have production plants in europe and the u. S. Sending the production to the u. S. Because of the ira. Pete these credits are there and people know that they are there and they are capitalizing on that but i want to go back to your point the announced drops we have seen so far by republican districts. If people dont make that connection. If i could jump in with one thing really quick totally agree. The distinction are local businesses. We will be responsible for of it to thech best we can do showing theres not an awareness on each that companies. Lets come back to this. Glenn youve studied the role they went to sector will play to tell us more and youve done a study recently on the stock Market Reaction to the early assumption that there would be no clean energy measure. Can you tell us a little bit more . And its important in the Financial Sector is under appreciated her often overlooked areamp and the rule and the hour sustainable economy for allocatingll funds or sustainabe investment also towards managing risk. Whats useful about looking at the Financial Sector and sanjay said it would take a decade but we seen some progress over the last year. We wont know for several years may be a decade out the investment projects have gone through leading up to the Emissions Reductions and positive climate effects. So the forwardlooking nature of the Financial Markets gave us an early read on how useful and effective the ira is. Financial markets have been allocating funds managing risk but they also have this aggregation of information so they can leverage that. So there were two events during the just station in the eye or a. There wasio a whipsaw of that lk like all hope was lost july 14, 2020. Excuse me i have ptsd from covering this. All hope was lost in the probability of major Climate Policy seem to go to zero and two weeks later on july 27 of 2020 to the ira was released the entire bill was released so that was a surprise so that makes it a great case study and a greatit event study. Typically the Climate Policy comes out in dribs and drabs thats negotiated. Before why oxman markey was tortured it was a long time before it was put to the test. So its a great study and we see in this research work, its a Brookings Institution working paper and the Hutchins Center with Michael Bauer and ericas coauthors. We are looking at the stock market responds to events where the probability of Climate Policy went to essentially zero it jumps to essentially one. Looking at both the broad indexes and individual firms and you really see the green affirms, it of lowcarbon firms and the low emissions firms measured in terms of emission intensity or a Rating Agency that the greener firms really did much better when the ira was announced. That was a huge jump in relative value,e relative certainly to more carbonintensive firms. You dont expect that. You might expect outside if thats what youre looking for but i think its an early indication that disasters are expected to have important effects in terms of profitability with these firms. You can do a cost channel where the investment was subsidized or demand channel where there Clean Energy Products were being used for instance for the cost channel and demand channel. Makes perfect sense in terms of the pricing perspective. You dont even see dont always see that in the data. I think thats an early sign that the ira is going to have this positive benefits. If its implemented as so. Lets turn to what some of the are and you want to dig in to permit thing but what do you see at this stage that the next hurdles are towards implementing the ira conditions. Its two main things and one is to uptake tax credits on the consumer and not many people are using it. And the second is permitting. We need to bring in a lot of infrastructure materialize those things that theas ira is adding. That could take a long time. We hardly see anything in congress that focuses on reforming it and just to give an example we did a different timeline for a lot of those projects it takes nine years. And thats great. You need to speed it up much more. I think s thats a major challee in the third when baby is unintended consequences. And you had to be very careful that they costs are low for low income and middle income families. I dont want to put words into your that you indicated to me is that enough and does it require congressional action or can the administration on its own address the transmission modes. I dont think it would be enough. Allowed that happens at the state level in the local level too. Well get the permittingg for instance for new power plant its up to the federal state and localer level. So i think this would be a concerted effort to improve it into speed it out. To give an example we have assistance from natural gas pipeline. We dont have transmission line so that allows lines in with the states were made at the line is going through but they dont get much electricity. With an act in congress that could really prolong things. The other major issue of course john mentioned as well, adie what problems are still remaining . G those are trouble questions. There is a lot of trouble on the workforce for their team has a runon infrastructure work and whats defined as green jobs of the jobs of the saint of work to jobs of those things that were defining green jobs next to each others problematic t too. Folksan cannot agree on what a green job is. We tried our best in the past so by a study we did if years back on judgment side of what could be inclusive to the economy by our estimation they are 6. 5 Million People that already work in her cleaner could be clean jobs. That stretches it and its more more important than the jobs number over 300 unique occupations. This is an exhaustive setpa up. And we need to deliver what the ira promises. John podesta mentioned two numbers and youll quickly find them in a press release as well over 170,000 jobs and this is really the key then you go to the hyperlink. We are talking about announced jobs and went. 5 million over 10 years. I dont know about each of you but i dont want to announce jobs. Thats going to be the question Going Forward is how many jobs are sustainable and try to work with metaphors again or whatever you want to call it. We often talk about construction in the industry of the green job but its mostly constructing a stadium. Those are not sustainable jobs. Its shortterm infusion of cash and good for those workers. We are looking for sustainable employment which has real opportunities. Essentially whats going to happen on the energybased transmission on generation and transmission. It can take time to see how many sustainable jobs we will get here and what is the green nature of them . We have some work that has just come out to make a final point on it at the local level which is really important in delivering jobs there are continuous breakdowns in the Climate Action plan on the actual connections between workforce intermediaries and infrastructure related agencies thatat would employ these folksn the Public Sector site. Increasingly theres a lack of money so even if they have workforce ambitions theres no idea where the money will come from so to connected off the top of the new jobs much of it by other Economic Data tied up in the construction facilities. We wont know the total durable Mount Johnson is not just related to ev and other manufacturing investment but all through c the entire economy. Some are declining the Inflation Reduction Act because of money. Beyond that and what are some of the differences we are seeing in how i states that want to accept money or an ability to do so where is that variation that we are seeing in the local government both with the willingness to embrace the ira and. We are seeing a big mix and workforce is just one of them. I mentioned it in the global media and they say one thing publicly and understandably. I think its been said its your job to vote in one way but you need to protect things. My 2 cents on this is that unlike what we saw in this recovery act went governors actually were sending money back to washington. So far including the state of florida, that is not the general attitude we have seen is that theres a willingness and acceptance. Part of it is because so much is on the ira through the tax code. Also i worked in washington long enough to know that anything can be seen as reduction as so i think we will do state and local being able to take it from the system that they will need to put more laws into place in one final to point again john mentioned the Home Rebate Program and whats going to happen there. The feds have done their job and we are going to know which states are best equipped to get the word out to their Home Retrofit actors that would be responsible to make sure the cache gets back to those consumers and they can make the choices. In terms of implementation certainly there is a lot of implementation hurdles and details to be worked out and theres a political element just like the aca. There is the possibility of a reversal or repeal or partial repeal. That is certainly a possibility. Can we reflect on that for a moment . Should the be a republican elected in a trifecta what are the most likely, well a it was very difficult to repeal the ira and more likely the precedent would be exempted to repeal and do you agree in what is portable and what do you see in the white house and congress . I dont think we will get so much a wholesale repeal. Of course they are issues in terms of some of the specifics but i think its more of an administrative sort of implementing the details that couldor be reversed and any regulations over time could be developed. Give the sure thoughts on what is vulnerable. Fits up to the agencies and the regulatory agencies. I think thats one reason it takes time to be implemented so that something the administration can slow walk. Death by 5000 cuts. You slow walk it so that would hamper it and we have seen in many areas over the last 15 years because congress often doesnt act what happens is we have one administration coming in to implement and i think thats why. I want to inject a positive note. I thought i better inject a positive note began coming up of our study Financial Markets also are important terms of thinking about the Financial Risks