Day. Look we can alle down to turn out. Polls are showing nikki haley within 30 points of donald trump, right there. I time on this, but ill ask you three questions t each to respond to. Relative to polling, you all right there, sparky . I was apparently unscrewing my microphone instead of pulling it out. In New Hampshire, nikki haley won democratic voters who crosseover, 865 will she do better than that or worse today than that South Carolina in South Carolina. Worse. Im going to better level or better. She won independent voters 5839. Will she do better with independen today . Level or better. Sara . Noworse hold on. Are we talking we talking like absolute numbers . Because here is the thing, in new hampshir are way more independents who culturally are used to vot i need percentages, im trying to norm it out. The point im trying to get at. A higher percentage, but lower absolute numbers translate into better showing. And im saying the more these of her, that the less they land i dont think thats true. And with republicans, she got 39 of selfidentified republicans in New Hampshire. Give me her number with selfidentified republicans today. 30 . 28 . Ab. Im in that window definitely worse. Ill take the under. Last question. Youll take the under. This is the price is dollar one dollar. Does any of it nikki haley strike you as the person whos going to stand up to marco rubio and Mitch Mcconnell and ron entire rest of the party and say you guys are the crazy ones ioing to do this. I dont know let me go to bat for for a second. I think shes going to do worse not because i think that i think shes a much better she was when she was doing her middling thing in New Hampshire, right . The problem is that South Carolina which is her home state, which is going to hurt its going to hurt more for her to underperform in South Carolina since she was the governor e, state thats a good fit for her. New hampshire was a much better nikki haley, even the republicans in New Hampshire fit for somebody like nikki haley. Yu in South Carolina im amazed. We did a focus group in south carolind its with tim, who wrote that really amazing profile ofey a couple of years ago, whats so conversation i had with alberta about nicky is that that piece haley, a time for choosing. And it was about this question was she going to choose to burn the boats . Was she to basically because albertas thesis nikki haley was a decent p wanted to do the right thing, the Republican Party to be sort of can leadership in the world, free markets kind of s she going to choose that or was she was going end up back in trumps corner right . The reason the they voters in South Carolina and nobody was going to vote for her, there was one woman who was going to vote for her because she wanted her to have a good enough showing that trump might pick her to be vicepresident , but anted to vote for trump. This person liked she was a trump person, but the thing that they all say, they say her. They cant trust nikki haley d the reason they think they cant trust her because nikki haleultiple sides of the trump question now for a long time right . They heard her say, i wont run for president if donald trump doesnt want me to. Like remember when she was asked if she was going to run and she said well talk to trump first and sort of get his permission. That doesnt exactly scream strength and authenticity and things she needed to win, but shes she hasnow, i think, to be burn the boats nikki. The problem is shes been both those things for so long people cant trust her, whe right now, i think shes doing a good job. I think shes running as the wanted to be and i hoped she would be, and going to stay in un that. Ive got problems with the way herself, but stay in and im going to fight for it. Okay i was mean. I take it back. All right, enough time in sou ivf, which is suddenly the most important issue in america, the Alabama Supreme Court rules, they dont exactly rule illegal, not a ban on it, but they issue a ruling probably drive ivf out of the state ofe have what should be a weird moment of ivf is wildly popular, here i have the pol down here somewhere. Hold yeah 86 of americans are in favor of Something Like 72 78 of p advocates are in favor of ivf. Evangelical christians in favor of ivf. So you would think this is going to be a problem and nikki when asked about she got herself on the wrong side initially, and shes been scurrying to back off of that since then and has trade to then frame it as a states rights issue, but you know like personally think that ivf is great and we have to respect states and every state is going to come to different decision abouts it trump does and i do think thatple misunderestimate trump, hes a demagogue demagogue, sure hes good at findin of things. This is have so many people think hes prochoice. Because he is. Also because he is. But, you know he immediately just popped out and was like yeah great. What just happened in alabama is a travesty and i call on the Alabama Legislature to pass a law to protect ivf. Is that going to work . So i think that this isbeginning of the issue for democrats, and not the end of the you saw steve gaines who runs the national senatorial committees candidates up fighting for swing states and put out statements, including terry lake they just want so many babies and pro family and pro ivf so theyreow champions. The fact that the republicans are im sorry, i didnt ask you, does it matter that steve gaines bill granting full constitutional protection for embryos . And mike johnson has the fact, life begins at the as long as donald trump changes and the republicans, they people think i have dementia because i confused nancy pelosi and i change names around and have fun and no one has a sense of humor, so this ivf pivot will help them in the near term, but if the democrats are smart, they will start running ads saying are your in mississippi, are your eggs safe inand they need to do this because it is the logical next question about what authoritarians want a huge menu. They need to be verytrumps been working really hard and might not have known its coming, but hes been working very hard to throw theangelical leadership under the bus on abortion and say were going to loseissue. If theyve already let him do this yeah the iss probably technically over within the movement and within evangelical christrt him nonetheless, but for the democrats, i thinks wide open. I mean these stories, the last couple of days of these women finding out that this had happened to them in this i have two children from my three, foo ind the middle of the course youve spent time and money preparing for and so much emotional duress the injections youuve had to cancelled. The secret youre keeping from your family and coworkers and your friends, hanging the hope on the retrieval, the harvest, the transfer all of these things its so completely overwhelming and the idea theyre sitting in alabama not how to control their future for your family with these embryos freezer somewhere is it knocked me over watching these people and this is a devastating story for them that i insist did not end with trumps truth social post yesterday. Im going to be super dark, but im going to let you first. Youre kidding. So here is the im going to defend nikki again. And she also said that she had her kids via and thats not uncomplicated in the sense i also haveids that were done via ivf, altho lesbians the thing that they tell you when you go to ay clinic is its like you dont suffer from infertility, you suffer from lack of exposure to sperm. [laughter] i call that suffering. [l since were going to get to some of that and then and then, but actually what of a personal story, but i got explicit approval from my wife to tell it we started out under that start of feeling like oh and then we tried for what close to two years and it didnt happen and we had to move to ivf and also we had miscarriages in and it was like its one of the hardest times when you children badly and its not happing, eventually obviously, it worked and now i have two kids boys who i love more tnd i think that like youre messing with something in peoples livesou do this that goes people think like this is your job, tommy tuberville. Tuberville does not get to have a say in the thing thats happening. [applause] so i agree withab. The problem with democrats, they are allergic to you do when you take an issue and say, no r we these guys arent prolife. Th werent prolife during covid. You made this theyre not prolife on taking your kids when theyren its a message there and its up to them to jump on it. [applause] all right, i think this is 10 for democrats. Okay. Whoa. I want to hear it. So donald trump has basically come out and openly defied the furthest elements of prolife, incorporated on this. Ivf is great. Hes called on the Alabama State legislature to rectify this horrible law horrible wrong and pass a law protecting ivf. And nobody from trad prolife world is going to crack back on him. Theyre all going to say its fine. And this is then going to create a haloffect for the rest of the republicans running. Because r you have a split. Some people in the senate are now reversing t pretend they dont like this, but youve got 125 republicans in the house who board with a cosign to a bill that would essentially creatersonhood for embryos. And those people i think, will get to benefit from trumps halo right . Sure my rep says this crazy thing, but i dont have to worry about it because trump, you know trump is really super pro ivf. Do you want me to rit the yeah. Its funny. I took as trumps speech writer on threads and i i bet you 1,000 trump couldnt tell you wha and my understanding is that they take the baby the very small baby some say, even smaller than thejesus, and they inject it right into the mother and its beautiful, its a beautiful thing. We love babies. Maybe not the mexican ones cant say that fake news very upset when you say that, but an ivf should stay in mexican. Do this and every minute that youre litigating this stuff youre not tal ut dobbs. Right, i think its lose lose lose for democrats. And thats sayingould prosecute this case, but if they right about, donald trump is perceived by a cultural moderate by voters and very much misunderstood and here is the thing about why voters 2e think that hes a moderate on abortion they believe he esntngage in any kind of sexual morality. Theyre like look foc groups i dont say this, paid for abortion. They dont think hes like the rest of the part don more popular than the Republican Party perceive him not to be a mike jmoderate. The more like triangulate against that the court that overturned roehe do think this is going to be impo its going to be ing. You have to run agasttrump, but youve g the whole Republican Party. Youve got to run against what it has turned into under trump and mike johnson because when you do that if you canrosecute thatase thinkthat. I mean i just we live in a wor where nobody remembers the ic right . Cans died. Standing out there bleach ivermec and blame trump for it. This is what jbl does to bait me into the website. He publishes other people true. He did a group with pro trump, pro choice women from swing states and they all thought, trump is great, hes right with me i feel good about trump and his position on abortion and when asked the dobbs things dont you maybe think he had something to do they all hated dobbs, they think that dobbs is bad. Three of 15 said maybe trump bore some partial responsibility for it. You know what . That sound about right to me. Ive seen the people i lived with the people. Thats what they think. They cant have all of t things in their heads. Thats true part of the problems with democrats and here is where i think its going to help and be aggressive on it you may have noticed na joe biden i doing great with people age 29 and younger, right . Young folks, remember the focus group we did with the younger people. You know,s like the same age of my grandma and she says a lot of problematic stuff. [laughter] and i think maybe hes like that. And you know so, but the thing that will get those people out, its not going to be joe biden, but it is going to be those issues that its going to be the contrast between joe biden saying ill protect reproductive freedom and prosecute a case against republicans who want to get rid of it and donald trump will point to the justices that overturned roe. It does a lot for the enthusiasm and showing up in his sort of lackluster poll numbers. I think you actually argued this months ago, hes kind of effectively won on the, you know distancing himself from dobbs and the abortion issue. I think its so powerful for the democrats to tie when they try to explain to people and youre right, they have to say, these are the justices that he appointed with posts from him, were going to overturn roe v. Wade and pictures, but ivf is so much more tangible to people when you explain to them what has happened sense dobbs in terms of women withe canith ectopic pregnancies and doctors calling their lawyers. And its complicated unless its been in their community or family or circle of friends, ivf is so much more accessible an issue to tie to dobbs, to talk about dobbs, and to talk about the Supreme Court that he set up to repeal roe v. Wade. And i think its just i think its a slamdunk. You just basically say it doesnt matter what donald trump is telling you, these are the people in red state legislatures theyre coming eventually for birth control, but right now they want your frozen eggs if youre a single woman and your frozen embryos if youre a married couple if youre trying to conceive. They can pretend to fix it, but theyre dystopian and radical to trust the guy i dont think its over as an issue for them. I really dont. And one thing to understand about this race it hasnt started yet. Its not even it feels to us like oh because its already over. Stop it you stop it laughter there are reasons that people run campaigns, there are things that they teach voters who are not paying attention yet and as somebody who talks to a lot of voters theyre not paying attention yet. The dynamics of the upcoming race if you listen to me i talk about it a lot. Its not like persuadables and there are two people that people dont know about. And thats not what the race is about unfortunately. This is why, i talked about not getting exhausted and we had to keep our blood up and energy up because its easy to get like oh i cant believe we areway going to do this again with these two guys and the voters that are persuadable hate both of them. Okay. The persuadable voters this time are different than other times. They are doubledoubters, doublehaters, a pox on both their housers. Its a race who they dislike more and i dont like when things are just about hate. Its not my favorite. But give into the hate jedi. It will make you powerful. Negative hilarity is going to rule the day. The campaigns really going to matter. Joe biden is old, but you know what . He can either be yoda old. At the old . You know what . He can be yoda old, wise there to protect us teach a new generation or he can be name the character, name the character. I dont know the bad guy save it somewhere and now youre trying to do your scifi analogy, but youre not a heard, you cant fake it. Whats the name of it. The emperor. Okay, that guy. This is why i didnt have a girlfriend until i was 30. [laughter] very very nice segue because i was hoping to rope you all very nice people into being codefendants with me with no labels lawsuit. Its not a lawsuit, okay . Listen no label youre all coconspirators to listen to us talking about us. Do you guys know this jbl once on a podcast we were doing, an insane rant against no labels talking anybody involved with no labels should never be able to get a table at spago, they should be just ruined their credibility and it was and i was could go like simmer down simmer down. Just before i was supposed to debate Nancy Jacobson the head of no labels supposed to be a public debate and she used jbls rant to cancel the debate and sent me a note that said i watched your despicable podcast with your despicable cohost who said check true. And then they sent a letter to the department of justice claiming there was a rico conspiracy against no labels that included our podcast and jbl and a bunch of people trying to educate in no labels would have a spoiler candidate effect. And jbl kept calling me am i going to jail. I said buddy, anybody can send a letter to doj. Its not a real thing. Im stereo typed based on my new jersey heritage. So ab. I want to talk about this. Yesterday we had a piece by sergeants in the new york public arguing the bottom is falling out of no labels and manchin pulled the plug on maybe ill run and one is running and thank you, larry hogan for not running as a third party spoiler. What do you think, you took a contrary opinion to greg sergeant. Explain to the people . Im sorry, the new republic piece claims that the effort is in meltdown. Its very wellfunded and wellorganized and already on 16 ballots, which is more than our its intentional and pretty competent and the they wanted Romney Romney would have been obviously the ideal candidate with hogan and manchin out, it clearly looks to the casual observer like its over, but there are other people that theyre pursuing and so at that point your challenge, if you go to a lower tier by a name i. D. Problem, someone who is competent and could appeal, but is not rfk, jr. Or mitt romney or i guess larry hogan, so it doesnt mean that its over and i think that so the theory that its in meltdown is wrong. Theres an interesting kind of theyve just invested so much money i dont think theyre not going to go through with it and dick gep heart and others working against it are trying to get them to back out. No labels said theyll do this if theres a path and they maintained that they dont intend to be a spoiler for trump. The exit ramp for people pushing for, can you get out at the last minute if it looks like its not viable . By july. Thats pretty tricky so you get someone in and you have to work up their name i. D. And thats mid march soon early april the latest and then i dont i just obviously, were in a new world. You know theres a lot concern about this going to the house and becoming a contingent election scenario where the house decides it which i truly believes would break the country in half and burn it down. And that the american electorate is not prepared to accept an election by the house right now. So they have a lot of decision toss make whether they want to go forward. I think like i said because the o