Transcripts For CSPAN3 Politics Public Policy Today 2024062

CSPAN3 Politics Public Policy Today June 22, 2024

For a long period of time focused on arabic and palestinian, visavis, the israeli. Now, at least you have got three, the palestinian, israel confrontation still there. We have the gulf region and the east coast and the west coast. They are opposing each other. The third one is about the traps significance. Started from tunisia, now to many countries. So the missions are changing. And the United States meeps areans are changing. Secondly the mekchanisms, the ways of dealing with the complex situation are changing as well. For instance, the United States used to rely very much on the socalled quartet which excluded china from that. Now, with this Iranian Nuclear issue, we Work Together for p5 plus 1. This also shows china wants to play a role. Although the United States still is the first fiddle and china is the third one. The second one is the europeans but we are learning. We are still in internship to have a digression. You have your American University in beirut for more than 100 years and you have American University in cairo. We even dont have many confucious institutes there. You can help us for that. The third one is, there are emerging new overlapping interests in the Corporation Like our corporation against piracy. Navigation safety and security and our corporation on the chemical weapon issue of syria et cetera. So i still believe the you states is the most important fact there but you will change your ways of thinking and practicing. Thank you. Brian, i think spoke very insightfully that the p5 plus 1, if a deal is done the first question becomes can it hold together for enforcing and supporting a deal . Then, another question starts to emerge, which is can this sort of a structure be the basis for a different kind of forwardlooking cooperation . Do you see that as something. Is that a mechanism that can do more than just one deal . Should we be looking at it that way . A coral larry question, thats the diplomacy question. The core larry question is the defense and security question. Rudy, i think the United States is of two minds on welcoming and expecting china to build its military capabilities but then feeling great doubt about how china may choose to use it. Great if it is for counter piracy. Maybe not so much if it is for enforcing disputed claims in the South China Sea. Where do you see that going and is the middle east a different kind of an opportunity compared with other areas . First, this diplomacy question. Everybody seems like they want to jump in. Let me start. I think were coming out of a period where it has been dominated by the security questions for the last 15 years. Sips the 9 11 attacks and afghanistan, we have had major elections focused on the wisdom of iraq. There are some enduring issues some enduring objectives in the region that i think dont expire and where if we can use the economic and the diplomatic, thats to our advantage. The Security Issues still remain. So this is a resolution of the palestinian question but security for israel. It is the economic path for egypt Going Forward. It deals with population bulges and an economy that used to have a big risk middle class that no longer does. To the gulf side, it is the security of Energy Supply globally. Were in a global environment. The right to navigate in International Areas becomes important whether it is the South China Sea or the straits of hormuz. Those things are not likely to change. I think america will continue to lead but if we do want to move and solve problems and not just simply go with the muscular approach then i think we need to be on the same page with or allies. I think china is no longer rising. It is, in fact, a global stake holder. Their engagement becomes very critical. What about the p5 plus 1 question . Can it do more . I think p5 plus 1 is not a one shot. This is already a process that countries in the world have been cooperating on the nonproliferation issue. For this i think it will gradually evolve into a more lasting, or permanent mek mechanisms. On the other china is learning. China is working hard. For instance at the one time, the differences between the United States and iran were so big and they could not any longer to continue the discussion and china use its diplomatic wisdom. Okay. If we could not continue talk at this level we propose we have the working group lower level js the to make just to make it survive. Now, our foreign minister, mr. Wong ye is shadowing and back and forth. They kept good and regular contact between Chinese Foreign minister and other Foreign Ministers including secretary of state, john kerry. Also china wants to have the outcomes. We are a stakeholder. For instance, because of the iranian issues, china was being sandwiched between the two sides and we could not make a longterm project in our political, diplomatic and economic relations related to iran. It also hurts our relations with saudi arabia and other gcc countries, et cetera. So the outcome and the sustainability of the outcomes are in the benefit of china as well. Thank you. Madame could you speak a little bit to the enforce ability of the deal and other things beyond that . I think p5 plus 1 is a good format to discuss and even to enforce that kind of out come of the dialogue. A very important feature of the p5 plus one is the multination. It would be good to organize the stakeholders to Work Together to push forward the process. Iran Nuclear Issue is kind of a Nuclear Issue. It is a very critical that kind of very, that kind of weapons system is very special. Other issues like folks with afghanistan and other issues, we need to involve more regional countries for multinational process. The regional countries have more interest in that kind of issue the solution of that kind of issue. So maybe afghanistan at least some of my colleagues in shanghai institutes think we need to consider about that kind of multinational dialogue on the afghanistan issues so we can apply that kind of p5 to other areas. I would say we should you encounter the chicken before it hatches. A real test will be whether this iran agreement is, afrmthsa, if there is an agreement and b, if it sustains itself. There are still not concluded discussions on the u. N. Security council arms embargo. With he know where russia stands on this. This is a terribly important issue to highlight. With the iranians bringing it up at this moment, and we also know any arguments that say, for instance, that iran would need more weapons to fight isis, doesnt make much sense. The arms embargo does not include small arms and things like this. So i think potentially, i would never disclose or cut off the possibility of p5 plus 1 cooperation on other issues. I would say, first things first. Even if a deal is inked in the next hour or two thats just when the real work begins of monitoring verification andal of these other issues, which i highlighted of can outside powers help actors in the region essentially stay the hand of vengeance. I think extremism of the sort we talked about in isis comes out of sectarianism in which very well think actors in the region have invested in. Those investments have yielded negative returns for all of us for the cause of global security. So, deal or no deal on the iran nuclear front, this framework is good. It is important. Maintaining the cohesiveness and getting into the details of whether these things work is essential. Two more questions from up here and then kick it over to the audience. The first will be on the overall macro dynamic of the region which is at some level the sunni, shia divide and the heart of the conflict between iran and saudi arabia. You, dr. Young were saying how the Current Situation makes it difficult for china to pursue constructive relations with iran and saudi arabia. This makes it complicated. You do unlike the United States, have relations with both and increasingly deep relations specially with saudi arabia. Does china see any kind of constructive avenue for engagement with countries that are essentially trapped in proxy wars and this sort of major this major competition that is on balance pad for all of us or does that just seem like it gets too much into internal affairs or other issues that are insoluble. I think it is very challenging to china but still china can walk on a very thin line because as you said china maintains relations with both iran and the gcc countries. That is to say china is in a better position to talk each other and to understand that their mentalities, their concerns, and also we can Work Together and thirdly, china and the United States now already have the Strategic Dialogue on the middle east affairs. So we can Work Together. The most important thing here is that for the major issues major consensus and propositions china and the United States should compare our notes first, not at the end. Also we would like to let the other parties know and so this is very important. China Still Believes now in interference in those affairs fundamentally speaking belong to the internal affairs. So there is still a margin that the china can be flexible and have reinterpretation of these long, persistent supports. My final question is actually to pakistan. Ryan has spent considerable time when we were speaking about it a little bit. China has embarked on actually an endeavor with pakistan. Chit napakistan economic corridor, which is very much in line with what u. S. Policy on the proactive constructive side has been with pakistan over many years, which is to help pakistan and invest in its people, infrastructure, energy water, the things it needs to be a Thriving Society and a little lesson the military side of things. That seems like where you could see a link between a new silk road and chinese projects. There is always a little concern and ambivalence in the United States. Do we welcome an aaib . Do we welcome a Major Initiative with pakistan or are we worried about it . I would like any of you to comment on this particular investment in pakistan. Not to exploit the pakistan issue but i think pakistan can play a very Important Role in specially issues related to have a a afghanistan situation. China generally has a very Good Relationship with pakistan. I think actually from the chinese perspective through that kind of economic cooperation, we can join today with pakistan to play some kind of constructive role in the afghanistan issue. Of course, at current stage, it seems that the u. S. pakistan issues relations have missed some problems. If we look at the history, we usually find that usually you states has quite Good Relationship with pakistan. It seems that maybe to some degree United States and pakistan can still a little bit readjust their relationship. They can unite pakistan and india to input constructive role in the how to say dealing with that kind of afghanistan issue. So thats a kind of general thinking in Chinese Research circles. Of course through that economic cooperation, have a balanced relationship with pakistan, india and then can unite. Or the positive elements in the region to deal with that for terrorism or other difficult issues for afghanistan. Three quick points. First, the political talks that are underway right now, the diplomacy between the Afghan Taliban and the Afghan Government with the involvement of pakistan, in our pages of the newspaper but not top of mine amazingly. Chinas role and the u. S. Being involved with this this is something that john podesta and steve hadley, when they did joint pieces two or three years ago, it was politically fraught here back at home. Now, the fact that this diplomatic engagement which you have been involved in personally. Vicram, is essential. Second, on the new silk road and pakistan again i would restate what i said before. To the extent all of these things are helpful in generating job growth in pakistan and create prosperity and an opportunity for the economy of pakistan to open up and flourish, thats great. If the approaches are more along the line of making basic investments that facilitate trade but making these countries flyover regions for other parts, then i think it doesnt address it. Finally, on the broader and we will get to questions. U. S. china cooperation. We have said it before. It is essential to underscore it. I think it makes it very difficult for the u. S. To talk about cooperation with china in pakistan or the middle east when there are all these big issues, including the cybersecurity issue, which has Great Potential for souring the overall strategic discussion. It makes it har. It is essential to explore these but it becomes more of an academic, think tank and less practical if these sorts of perceptions create so much distrust. Any comments before we go on . We have a lot of hands and we have 10, 12 minutes. Lets start with the gentlemen way back on the left. Yes, you. Im bill jones in executive intelligence view. I would like to focus on one road and one belt issue. The way the u. S. Attitude toward one road one belt will determine the course of human history. If it is willing to join this and work in this, we are going to have a flourishing of Economic Growth, the likes of which we havent seen. We saw at the eufa conference, nearly 50 of the World Population has said we have to move in a different direction towards this infrastructural investment, road development, highway development. This is what the world wants to do. The United States has been invited to this. President xi has extended an invitation to be a part of this. The attitude we get from the u. S. Is mainly critical or even kind of paranoid about it because it is china that is pushing this proposal. The new silk road as it has been put forward is largely a myth at the present moment. There is nothing being built. There is nothing being developed. It was used, i think, as ai ploy to say, we have our silk road and you have your silk road. I dont think thats going to get it. The idea is if the United States is willing to participate in this the hand of president xi is open to that type of participation. I dont think we have really got our act together in understanding the significance of this because we are mired in a debt crisis with europe and the United States and until we see asia moving ahead we dont know how to deal with that. Until we can get our act together, we ourselves will not develop. Infrastructural development, how much do we need in our highways, our railroads. We havent done that in a long time. If the u. S. Policy were oriented toward that, we could take that extended hand and work with china in trying to develop the world and to realize the common aims of mankind. I think we have to somehow reexamine our own attitudes towards this and understand the significance of this project. Just a little time. Let me take two more questions and come back to the panel. The gentlemen up here in the front. Hi. I just want to continue what dr. Young has started. Could china and the u. S. Reconcile on this different approach . It is a starkly different approach, intervention or intervention. For example, china see very different the arab spring compared with the u. S. Or when china see the u. S. Views of security consul resolution. So china is very mindful of any serious concept on syria, for example. So the other is you know, actually according to the pew center survey, china is more popular in the middle east than the United States. So there are slightly different policies. How you you the chinese scholars interpret this . Does that mean they like china approach or dislike the u. S. Approach . Thank you. Lets go right to the middle the gentlemen second in there. Im the assistant director for asia and the americanjewish community. I wanted to ask our scholars from china. China and india have had a very traditional walk, close ties with the Palestinian People and also since 91 have had growing ties with israel. How could both countries join the p5 plus 1 in trying to help forge along the middle east Peace Process as well as ensure israels security with the kinds of threats that iran makes . Really simple questions. The first is on the belt and road. Is the United States welcoming or not welcoming and should it . Second on how do you reconcile theez deep differences . I think the key there is different approaches and perception about the arab spring between the United States and china . The third is can china and india help with the Israeli Palestinian Peace Process . Very interesting. I am going to go down the row and you can pick and choose of what you want to answer. You want me to start. Just briefly, very good questions on the difference of perceptions of the u. S. And china, the popular level. Let me start with are second question first. Ive looked at the data a bit. I think part of it may be this issue of familiarity breeding some contempt. If you recall in turkey, 2010, 2011, 2012 specially after the first year of the arab spri

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