Turkey. That was my only thanksgiving joke. Ill leave it at that. Today was supposed to be the start of a trial. Seemingly disa. Why it is such a big deal in turkey. Im very pleased to have an expert panel with us to help discuss that. I wanted to announce a couple of products. Were lain chi launching a broa initiati initiative. It allows you to explore the links. With that, let me go to our panel. We have respected turkish journalist. And nick danforth. Can you give us a summary of what the case is all about . What are the allegations in this case. Sure. Thank you for the invitation. He got arrested in march 2016 but also was arrested in 2013, december in turkey and became very, very famous in turkey. I think he stayed in jail in turkey about, i dont know, couple months. Then he was kind of forgotten in turkey but he still is married to the pop star in turkey. Last year march 2016 he got arrested in miami. It was a shock to everyone. Hes been in jail since then. We know hes under u. S. Federal custody right,000. Whether hes in hotel or somewhere else, hes under custody. A day before u. S. Elections expanded second indictment. The third one when the second person got arrested. He has been still also in jail. Fourth one came out early september. The most expanded one and included former finance minister. So total of nine people. Its really hit turkey. What are they charged with . They are six counts and four charges, separate charges. One of them conspiracy against United States. The second one is banking, defraudsing u. S. Banking. The other one is money laundering. The fourth one is will come back to me. There are about 75 years they are asking for. Experts say actually if the judge counts every transaction in this money laundering, it could be really, really long which is how these things go. We are looking at maybe more than a century of jail sentence. All this allegations, of course. The prosecutors who launched those investigations also dismissed and i think many of them either fled or in jail. We have seen dozens of trials, conference, hearings. We have not so far have a person that we can say. These a allegations. Sort of the back story of this and the arrest in turkey in 2013, can you tell us about the context for that. Sure. I think for me the case is very symptommatic because if you are in turkey or if youre in the United States, you are living in different planets in many ways. What you interpret when you see the case or the details of the case will be completely different. That is you cant understand the case without understanding the rule of movement and the conflict between them. The superficial, this is an issue about corruption and sanctions. Therefore, this is a legal case and has judicial process. Im not saying that anybody in the u. S. Would see this is purely out of politics but its mainly a legal case. This is not only an issue of manipulating political things. We have to remember that the way that the whole case came out, his proxies and family members and close associates. We know theres an economy thats been built up in turkey. We had the cases of Al Qaeda Linked saudi financiers that has been raised. These raids targeted specifically those things. The spervcific things that woul be damaging are very important. We know the prosecutors that were solved beyond any reasonable doubt were affiliated with the movement. This is why it was understand stood as a judicial coup. This is the background to how they see it. Obviously, then following this we have a, weve had election, referendi. Its much more complicated than that. In in case this means from the perspective when suddenly reza zarrab gets arrested in the United States and indicted, this is not just an ordinary legal procedure in the u. S. This is about a continuation of a coup against him. What we have to understand in what most people may not fully internalize is from the supporters perspective, hes not an autonomous actor. Id suggest to anybody interested in Turkish Affairs to read a book that has nothing to do with turkey. How Conspiracy Theory pervades thinking. This is not really relevant for turkey today but it may be in the future. That future has arrived. Therefore, we have to whether we agree, disagree, we have to understand that for supporters the Glen Movement is an american controlled operation and a orchestrated coup against him is an american coup against him. This is what they appear very strongly to believe. Can you talk about how this turkish view of what the case is about has played out in recent months and where it might go from here. Right now were in situation where people in turkey, not just people reading the papers but people at high levels of the government and the United States are living in different realities both in regards to this case and the u. S. Turkish relationship. You ever to understand this case is worth looking at both how this case has helped perpetuate the realities and exacerbate and will continue to exacerbate many of very deep divides in u. S. Turkish relations but also to trace back and show beyond the issue which im fwlglad you highlighted how the incipient divergent opinions about turkeys role in the world going back to 2012, 2013 when this case came into being. How this case and the crisis we find ourself in now wasnt itself a result. Right from the United States perspective people look at this as a very simple legal matter. How zarrab violated u. S. Law and now they are being tried for in u. S. Court. To make it against the law for us business wthis was a bilaterl trade. Up to a point i think its worth acknowledging where this is coming from. Its a vast sweep of the Financial Sector does have a unique ability to make our National Interest into a matter of universally enforcement law. That only goes so far. The point is worth mentioning and this is where the problem really goes back to how the akp approached this issue this 2012. They may not have agreed with the United States laws. They may not have agreed with the United States sanctions against iran. They made it clear they did have concerns about u. S. Sanctions against iran. However at the point when these sanctions were put in place at the point where people in the tu turkish Banking Sector knew these laws were in place, they were aware of the consequences of breaking them. At that point the decision to go ahead with this scheme, the decision amongst member s of th turkish government were taken against the actions were against u. S. Laws. Thats why they tried to hide the actions. As a conspiracy against turkey. These are the results of actions taken by turkish government officials offered for profit. Im sure they believed they were doing it for turkeys National Interest in a conscious decision to violate u. S. Laws. They should have realized were going to have consequences. In addition to the legal issue id make a similar point about the broader geo political. Turkey has had a long complicated relationship with iran. They have been rivals and neighbors for centuries now. At the time this scheme was taking place, turkey was in a period of considerable tension with iran their very divergent positions in the syrian civil war. People in turkey have pointed out tur ski not the only country to maintain profitable relationships. Tur skey is not the first count to maintain good relations with oppressive but hydro carbon rich state fp turkey is not alone in doing this. However, whats worth noting is this happened in the context of turkey being a nato ally. This happened in the context of turkey being irans neighbor. Having deep geo political differences with iran. Turkey would have had every reason to be terrified of Irans Nuclear program. No country would be excited about declaring Nuclear Weapons when it did not have them. The reason turkey was not as concerned is because it was nato member. Because it had nato protect it from any Nuclear Weapons that e iran might get. In the case that iran did develop Nuclear Weapons, for it to then take actions that undermine natos or nato countries efforts to stop Irans Nuclear program, seems like a pretty deep violation of the spirit of the alliance. I think thats a really interesting issue and maybe we can bookends this question of turkeys position between the u. S. And iran and maybe how that shifted because it also gets us to events over the last couple of days. If we can bracket that and talk about the case itself and what it means. A couple of questions. For much of the last year, when turkey has talked about its concerns about u. S. Legal issues, its been talking about asking for the extradition to turkey. It hasnt so much talked about the zarrab issue until recently. Why is that is the question. Is there greater emphasis . Is there less concern for zarrab . There are two ways to answer that. One is that theres an obsession which is an unable obsession because after all it is very it is sdsh he was the person to enabled the movement. Those other sunni muslims would support me and they wont bepray me. What turned out is there was a power struggle between these two elements, if you will, within this coalition. That struggle has almost destroyed the turkish state. That is quite damaging. At the same time i talk to a very good friend in turkey last week. Its very strange. For example in the akp has not been purged. A lot of different state institutions have not been purged. What im trying to get to is that the maintaining the pressure on the issue is for the domestic political regime stability and necessity by its also something that united him with his new coalition partners, if you will. Even more so after the coup went to a strong tactical alliance. Deeply nationalist. They are highly skeptical, if not hostile to the United States and to the west and this focus unites them and i would say also the tensions with United States and the suspicion that the case generates strengthens the power of these neo nationalist forces in the turkish government and puts them in the same bed, if you will. So, if you want to speculate, do you think that he really wants him back. Is it just this tactical political ploy . I do believe he wants him back. The reason i do believe that the latest revelation to try to get him through. If you were to believe these arent claims had not been confirmed yet. At the same time he wants that is the question. In september 21st of 2016 when the president spoke to Vice President biden only two months after the coup, 65 days. Still the trauma was being felt very much in turkey and obviously, apparently about the meeting. Sit down and talk about the case. He wanted zarrab. I think he wants it more. Nick, i guess, a, would you agree with that assessment and why would he want zarrab more. This is one of the strange things about focus on this case that a lot of people in washington have wondered about there has, it seems like in private meetings, hes opinion very focused on this. Very mump wanted zarrab off, wanted the case to go away. Many explosive revelations could come out of this. Looking from the outside my assumption has been any revelations coming out of this would be easy. Very easy to dismiss. Some people trying to understand why this might be the case. Ive pointed to the fact that if the case results, if it proves that turkish banks for involved, there could be heavy fines. This could have damaging impact on the turkish economy. Its still unclear were the case to result in fines. It seems odds that he would try to deal with the risk by making the case go away. I guess this is a long winded way of saying i dont have an answer. Any insights . I think the reason hes workinged about this case is speaking, talking to prosecutors and if hes talking to prosecutors which right now every indication shows that he is talking to prosecutors and we dont know yet whether they got a deal but if hes talking to prosecutors that means he has to give up everything. By everything. Everything means names, the people who work with in the sche scheme waiving sanctions on iran. That probably is going to implicate a lot of key officials or key allies. Thats why hes very much sensitive. T possible he might be talking. Maybe dozens of close allies will have a lot of limitations whether inside turkey or outside turkey. Sgr hes concerned. I think thats because he see this is as a gate way of things that will lit cloetsser thoem. Whats important is to look at this in the context of like nick was saying, he shouldnt be this concerned. Maybe he should. Hes weaker than he looks. If you scratch the surface a little, what appears is first the little dirty secret that i keep talking about is he never had enough people to run the turkish state. He always had to rely on others. First, that was the whole rationale for bringing in the movement. He could base his regime. When he, so to speak, fell out he didnt have fluff people of his own to run state. He had to lean on the nationalists and these type of people to run various state agencies. Turkey, in spite of referendum is still not a president ial republic. It will only become a president ial republic after the next election. In the meantime everything he does is illegal. Every decision he takes. Thats the prime ministers perogative to run the government. Its illegal. We also know that when in 2015 he almost lost power. He lost an election and manage ed nullify that election. He sent family members out of country to run it. His behavior suggests that he actually had much more reasons to be concerned about these kind of things and what would appear to be the case. So, weve sort of heard, you just told us there might be some sort of deal brewing. I feel like we have been talking about this for a while. Theres the strange question of why did this for a while. He gets arrested in turkey for basically breaking u. S. Laws, released. He comes to miami to take his kids to disney world. It seems like a bit of a gamble. Weve been talking about a potential deal for a while. Why do you think this is happening now . There have been a lot of scenarios and talk and lots of speculations why he came to the u. S. Knowingly. I do not believe that scenario. I believe he came to the u. S. Not because i dont believe that scenario, i have seen the messages published by the court, he was found having talking to ibanian until the last minute and talking about different ideas and the planning in miami. But its been 20 months. If he came here to get a deal, i think hell be spending that much time in the jail. The bigger question is who was actually going on trial starting today . Yes. I think hes going trial, i think thats for sure because his lawyers have been battling fiercely and he turns out to be a witness against him that would really weaken his defense because basically zabarb will confirm much of the allegations against him if that was the case. You raised the question why he came to the u. S. Do you have a good answer . I think he came to the u. S. Because he got away with everything in turkey. He has been reached all his life and he did not get good advice from his lawyers. I dont know who hired his lawyers. He came to have fun and told all these allegations and fraud and all the other claims he told that the u. S. According to some sources, he also checked his he checked his status that hes clear, he got his visa and got on the plane. I think he said there was nothing ventured, theres no danger for him. Assuming there is a deal, what do you see as the legal consequences . What would happen next . Lots of unknowns. Ive been talking to quite a few experts including financial crimes expert. It looks like if he got deal again he is to give up names and information, every single bit of it. He needs to convince the u. S. Prosecutors he got really good information. And as stated yesterday, he needs to be qualified substantial assistance either he will help with big amount of money, plus he is going to give intel information of this money, big money, billions of money around the world. Not only turkey, but abu dhabi, but people are talk ing about malaysia, uk, germany. There are a lot of players around the world right now very much worried that he might talk. He has already been in jail for 20 months. If he gives good information, according to people who know these cases he might get out very soon, in maybe a couple years, depends on what he is going to say. So let me ask you about the potential political consequences of a deal. You talked about how it might be seen from the turkish side. Love to hear more on that. What about the turkeys side . Will it really matter with sanctions busting, i think you said turkey will not be the first country to do business with a corrupt state. The u. S. Has done this several times. Does the revelation of corruption in turkey really matter for the United States . I would give two answers to that. One specific and one more general. The fact this corrupt country was iran i think really will matter. There is even before the most recent election in the United States, before trump came into office and afterwards, certainly, one of the approaches turkey has used for the United States is present itself as a potential ally to america confronting iranian regional influence in the middle east. This from the outset might have been a tough sell. Turkeys response from the qatar crisis didnt convince anyone turkey would be a tougher line on iran and clearly, turkey wanting a tougher line on iran, it is open to it. Were it to be so obvious turkey had been sabotaging our most recent effort to constrain iran, that would make that much more difficult. I also think more broadly, the details of the corruption and extend of the corruption are going to have an impact on the way the United States sees turkey as a potential partner. This is something we explore in the paper i encourage everyone to take a look at. Corruption and consequences, you can grab a copy at the table out there. One of the things that seems most troubling, the United States problems with turkey has been not cooperating on u. S. Policy goals. The United States wants their support on dealing with iran and turkey has refused to cooperate. Corruption raises the issue of not turkey voluntarily to cooperate, if turkey becom