Good morning. Todays open hearing is the fourth in a series the committee is skukting to examine the intersection of Key National Security challenges and intelligence. In our prior hags we explored the rise of authoritiarianism, russian intelligence trade craft and chinas use of technology as a actual of oppression. This morning we will look at Climate Change which is the greatest longterm it National Security threat to the u. S. And affecting every dimension of National Life for decades and possibly centuries. In the unclassified 2019 worldwide threat assessment director of National Intelligence coates submitted this finding to Senate Counterparts on behalf of the the community. Quote Global Environmental and ecoology aldid he grey graduation and Climate Change are likely to fuel competition for resources economic distress and social discontent through 2019 and beyond. Climate hazards such as extreme weather, high temperatures, droughts, floods, wildfires, storms, Sea Level Rise owe sooz rise oop soil did he graduation and acid fieing oceans are intensifying threaten attention infrastructure, health abwater and Food Security in the past the i. C. Partnerwood climate scientists to the Mutual Benefit of both. In the 1990s the cia managed to public acknowledge Environmental Intelligence program called nadia granting clearances to climate scientisting to take advantage of technical collection capabilities to inform research. In public remarks about the Initiative Former cryocia grerkt 2k0i67 said in 1996 that madia gave the cleared scientisting oengaening record of changes in the earth understanding of the environmental processes and provide their ability to strategic wagener of the poengtsly catastrophic threats to the health and welfare of sins. It was halt unthe george w. Bush administration and resorted for a time under president obama. Exemplar fieed the ic a commitment to endzoning impacts about the changing chiemt are based scientific observation and Peer Reviewed the data. The National Intelligence counsel as the dni lead for strategic analysis has been at the forefront of publishing analytical finding about the National Security implications of Climate Change, projected against a longterm horizontal and finding dominates which we must take action tos avert the direst Climate Crisis in areas. Process in 2008. The nic release add National Intelligence assessment judging the fakt are likely exacerbate poverty, societile toengs and shortcomings in governance appear spurring domestic strive in some countries or interstate competition for resources. Eight years later in 2016 the nic published pennsylvania subsequent community coordinated memorandum tweeted to Climate Changes marshfield impacts op National Security interests. Unspraysingly the top line finding hued to those of 2008 further under squoer the ledgeages between frequent and intense weather events appear humanitarian upheaval. Community is also warned that that there is ins inned stresses on military. And hard hit parts of the or because extreme weatherfily threaten bases or other capabilities. Meanwhile, that youing in the arctic and anticipated new narmt access lain lanes could spur china and russia to project competition in miller power in a region much emerging geostrategic significance. Newly reachable Mineral Resources or oil reserves in dan dem with easier accessibility for commercial naval vest vessels could create friction shun among arctic claimants and undercut the efficacy of the multilateral Arctic Council to peaceably resolve dputs computes and the middle east and subsaharan african regions are likely to suffer from extreme temperatures and scarcity of water and may face growing levels of inability, poverty, hunger and migration as desperate people seek a port life. One place where this is apparently is yemen which is has wantsed repeatingly seen recollect arcos actors on the ground weaponizing water shortage. Other concerns are cad radicalization of populations against weak or failed governments, increase the new migration patterns, future instability or unwillingness of International Organizations to muster the requisite responses to Climate Change and the role and consequences of unregulated and emerging technologies such as geoengineering techniques designed to manipulate weather. That could carry lamarful sell sbil overexpects without properly established frameworks in place. Before turning to the Ranking Member i want to close with a sentiment expressed by Theodore Roosevelt more than a century ago of all the questions coming before the fwhags short of the actual preservation of existence in a great war there is none which compared with the task of leaving the land even a better land for our descendants than for us and with that is recognize Ranking Member nunes for his opening remarks. Thank you mr. Chairman id like to thank the witnesses for being here here and ill submit my statement for the record so we can begin the hearing from the Witnesses Today because i know we have votes that little while. Yield back. Thank the gentleman. Without objection, the openings statements will be made part of the record. Its a pressure to welcome todays panel of analysts from the intelligence committee. First mr. Peter kemil. Counsels to the National Intelligence kpunl and director of national belkys. Next rod skroon overover a Senior Analyst with the at the bureau of intelligence and research at the department of state. And finalry mr. Jeffrey hinge howson senior Naval Intelligence manager for russia and eurasia at the office of National Intelligence. Thank you for being here. I i understand you consolidated or Opening Statements into a single statement. And mr. Assessments kemil are you limping dlifrpg the Opening Statement. Thats correct. Ill deliver the Opening Statements if the committee would like jeffrey can also add contents on the arctic in particular as part of the Opening Statement. Okay, great. Why dont you begin. Thank you. All right. Well thank you, mr. Chairman. And thank you Ranking Member nunes and zing wishtd members of the committee for the opportunity to discuss the Intelligence Community ace assessment of the National Security implications of climb Climate Change. In my opening remarks i will speak broke briefly about how the ic reproaches this topic and then highlight several key implications for National Security. Its the role of the ic to provide timely objective and relevant insights to advance National Security. Our jobs is to consider all factor atlas could aircraft the Global Threat Landscape and that includes Climate Change. We examine how climb trends aircraft National Security against krs a variety of dimensions and to inform judgments we revelle on reports produced by ugs federal science agencies, Peer Reviewed science journals and reports from skrievg organizations and panels. The ic uses this reporting stream in conjunction with all Source Intelligence reporting. Our abilities produce intelligence assessments focusing on implications for National Security on work is reflected in my testimony today. As we discuss these assessments i would like tounder score a couple of points about what we do and do not know. First, it is difficult to discern the National Security depictions of climb changes in ice laying. It interacts with other environmental conditions and Human Factors the in many cases it exacerbates kissing stress resist such as Natural Resource constraint that contribute to water and Food Shortages. And the second point is its difficult to project when and where specific disruptive events and other climate affect haves the most National Security impact because the complexities of the earths systems are so great there is upper back o uncertainties in modelling and human cahoices are unprohibit predictable. We do however make judgments about risk factors in the next several years we assess the Security Risk for the United States will arise primarily from zinged extreme weather events and from worsens preexisting problems such as waerd water and Food Insecurity around the world as the chairman alluded to. The various studies i mention germ generally agree during the next 20 years and beyond Climate Change will compound sfreem worpgt events. Many scientists warn that the risk of abrupt Climate Change which would have the most severe National Security implications will increase over the next year next several decades and beyond although currently it is assumed to be low. I would also like to remind everyone that the Intelligence Community does not assess the direct kbalkt of chiemt change on u. S. Homeland we are faceningen oh the National Security glikss for the United States. Ive submitted a statement of record that provides our assessment on the effects of climb trend on various facets of National Security including the unwithes the committee the submitted . Writing annually highlight three areas of particular concern. Good and water security. The arctic and u. S. Military basesing and operations over the next 20 years Climate Change is likely to exacerbate food and water security in a number of countries. This has the potential to contribute to political turmoil as governments struggle to cope with food or water crisis. We already have seen water crisis exacerbate social unrest in the middle east and narcissistic sauchs syria and libby and these crisis contribute to increased migration flows. And it has the potential to increase disputes over resources. Disputes over land and Water Resources increasingly trigger social violence and conflict when they build on existing social and political grievances. As the Climate Change disputes over water and land are li rowe likely to grow in the sahel and sudan. Second the changing conditions in the arctic will have significant secure economic and social implications for arctic and nonarctic states. Scientists tell us the arctic is wrmg as rates at rates morp twice as fast as the rest of the earth making for pnzingly navigable arctic that could be tree of ice cover in the summer sometime between 2030 and 2040. These conditions would drastically authoritien maritime routes between asia europe and north america attracting increased commercial interests. Mining exploit arrogant of energy and fishing. Its a new centrally ig strategic competition russia and china and others are increasing developments and invites region. Finally climate related phenomena will affect some u. S. Military capabilities and facilities. Including military bases and training ranges globally. One example is the Marshall Islands where both u. S. Bases are expected to be flooded annually by 2040 process the globalee level continues to rise at the durant cut in interest of time i will turn it over noy micallying i want to thank the committee for convening this hearing. We appreciate the to cues discuss analysis and share our work with congress and the american people. I look forward to your questions. Thank you. Mr. Kiemel did you say your colleagues want to make comments in terms of the arctic. Thats correct. And i think inr is also prepared to make an opening as well if the committee would like. That would be great. Thank you. Thank you very much chairman schiff, Ranking Member nunes, everyone here today thank you for inviting mo he to speak today. As an Intelligence Officer my job is to provide clear, objective independent analysis to policy makers to advance u. S. National security as a scientist in the ic i work to blend insight from Peer Reviewed science with daily intelligence to provide science informed analysis. My work has benefitted greatly from the cadre of talented dedicated officer in the ic mo quietly serve u. S. Interests. A large part of thework has been to better understand the National Security implications of a wide range of environmental and ecological stress from a National Security perspective i fret most about two environmental concerns. Risks from instabilities to the bioatmosphere, for example, ongoing species exstings and Climate Change, the topic of the hearing today. The earths climate is unequivocally undergoing a long term warming trend as established by decades of scientific measurements from multiple independent lines of evidence. Global temperatures are set to continue to increase over the next two few decades due largely to emissions of the green louz glass it produces fallout only hot dehnenings and had melting ice caps. Rather temperature is one of fundamental control vashls of the planet and attacks more than just the weather and climate. Rising temperatures drive changes in a wide array of earths processes, in the atmosphere or the ocean fresh water, soil, i. C. E. , perm a frost and organism comprising the biosphere, including humans some are familiar by like Sea Level Rise and declining arctic ice. Others are under appreciatinged like dpleting oceanic oxygen, redistribution of plants and zm thele on lan and in the ocean pps we are a long way from fully understanding thousand hees factor also intertwine and affect societies and governments. We expect many many linked stresses to mum and societile systems to intensify or emerge, many with outcomes important for National Security. And a critical factor, determining the degree of harm is how people in Societies Act to decrease their vulnerability or exposure to ongoing and anticipated climate linked hazards. We expect it to affect ugs National Security interest through multiple concurrent and compounded ways global difficult puce perturbations is certain to ripple across predictle, social, economic and Human Security dplans worldwide. Including economic damage, threats to human health, Energy Security and Food Security. We expect no country to be immune to the effects of climate ainge over 20 years. But some populations will be able to cope, adapt or respond more effectively than ever. Fragile states in subsaharan africa, middle east, sell central and Southeast Asia are specially vulnerable as are small island nations. Climate change could undermine Important International systems on which the sus compensate, trade routes, food and Energy Supply that is global kbhe and domestic stability abroad. Most countries if not all are already unable to fully respond to the risks posed by climate linked hazards. Under present conditions countries with weak institutions low governmental legislate macy or where the potential for conflict or strive is already present will have increased risks of inability. We can expect heightened tensions in some places over Natural Resources such as water ob ar abel land or fisheries. Kplkss are many wrekts to human movement. But the net effects on my drags and statelessness could be dramatic. Even events amplified by Climate Change may pose humanitarian challenges particularly with greater frequency or severity in the same reason. Two words that get the attention of most