Good morning. The rok u. S. Strategic forum will begin shortly. Please start taking your seats. We would like to welcome all of you to csis, but before we begin todays events i need to make a few brief security announcements. We feel very safe and secure in our building here at csis. In the very unlikely occasion of an emergency, we ask that you remain calm and follow any instructions and alarms that are made. Please also take a moment to look at the safety card on your tables and locate the nearest exit. Csis is very proud to cohost this Fourth Annual rok u. S. Strategic forum with the Korea Foundation. Thank you ambassador lee and welcome to our distinguished delegation from the Korea Foundation. On behalf of csis and the korea chair, i would also like to extend a very warm welcome and thank you to our sponsors, our silver level sponsor, the American Chamber of commerce in korea, our gold level sponsor, the Korean Chamber of commerce and industry and our special sponsor corestone. To begin todays events i would like to invite to the stage csis trustee and president of armitage international, Ambassador Richard armitage. Please join me in giving him a warm welcome. [ applause ] well, good morning. Good morning. I think weve got some fun planned for you today. Im rich armitage. Im a trustee here and standing in for our president dr. Jon hammer for this mornings festivities. Weve got a big day ahead of you, and as marie said, this is our fourth strategic forum. Were delighted to be with the korean foundation, and were delighted with the collaboration, and delighted to have them sailing alongside of us for this. And then tonight, of course, were going to have the commemoration of the tenth year of the korea chair. That will be a reception, a presentation, and then another excellent panel. So weve got three panels this afternoon. Youve got an excellent speech by congressman dr. Ami barra who will follow ambassador lees remarks, and i think we can promise you some real fun. Now, i cant prove this to you, but im thinking somethings going on. Let me see, our president gets a beautiful letter and kim 3. 0 gets an excellent letter. And our president also gets a birthday card or a letter from kim 3. 0, so it seemed osaka is coming up. President trumps going to going to seoul on the weekend and finally, xi jinping had a state visit to the dprk, so i think somethings afoot, but heres the rub. It looks to me like we are going to have step by step moves to denuclearization. The trick is how do you do that in a way that doesnt in some way fudge our equities with the republic of korea or with japan, so weve got to be very careful and approach this very carefully, and im sure that the three panelists this afternoon and our panel this evening will be addressing those issues and an awful lot more. So again, let me welcome you to csis with the warmest welcome to ambassador lee and korean foundation, and i think without fear of any contradiction, youre going to find it a pretty fulfilling day. And youll get lunch as well. So when is that ever wrong . So welcome. Thank you. [ applause ] thank you ambassador armitage. Please now welcome to the stage Korea Foundation president ambassador lee. [ applause ] what a change. I thought i was in beijing. It must be the color of celebration of tenth anniversary i guess. Not bad. I have blue ties but i like red colors also. Well, many familiar faces. Ambassador Richard Armitage thank you for your kind introduction and president john henry and congressman ami barra and mark lippard, i saw ambassador tom herbert here. Distinguished delegates, guests, ladies and gentlemen. Very good morning and welcome to the rok u. S. Strategic forum 2019. The fourth iteration of this annual forum cohosted by csis and the Career Foundation. Ill first and foremost on behalf of the Career Foundation, i would like to express my sincere gratitude to all of you for joining today, despite your busy schedules. My special thanks go to professor victor char and staff of career chair at the csis for their exceptional preparation for this event. Im also particularly glad that congressman ami barra chair of the Congressional Study group on korea has found time to share his views with us today. Im honored that i could receive him not once but twice in seoul recently. Ladies and gentlemen, the Career Foundation had organized forums in conjunction with other institution, institutes in washington, d. C. , for some years before launching the rok u. S. Strategic forum in 2016 in partnership with csis. In less than three years, we have successfully this event to serve as a dialogue channel between expert from the u. S. And korea allowing for discussion of critical matters that affect the common interests of both nations. Without a doubt, this forum stands head and shoulders above the more than a dozen similar events that Career Foundation annually presents in cooperation with its foreign partners. I have a personal attachment to this rok u. S. Strategic forum. In 2016 upon assuming as the president of the Career Foundation, i found csis to be the best partner with which to launch this event. It was not difficult to come to that conclusion considering the csis career chair was already well established at the time. I have since participated for four consecutive years, and it has always been my honor and privilege to have the opportunity to open the forum and welcome you. This ear marks the tenth anniversary of the csis career chairme chair. Congratulations. Through the establishment of the in 2009, csis has initiated indepth discussions and carried out important policy Research Related to career at every critical moment for the Korean Peninsula and northeast asia. For all this, my special thanks goad to president jon hammley as well as his step members and all of csis for their dedication and hard work in making this forum possible for the fourth time. Through csis and the Career Foundation strong partnership, the career chair will no doubt continue to play a significant role in fortifying the rok u. S. Alliance into the next decade and beyond. When the first rok u. S. Strategic forum took place in late 2016, maximum pressure and strategic patience were still almost the only policy options em employed by the u. S. Towards north korea. At the time i tried to convey a message to my american friends that the window of dialogue should be kept open to north korea while maintaining our basic partition. I believe that the pressure without dialogue was unlikely to change north koreas behavior. In september 2017, the rok u. S. Strategic forum was held during an exceptionally dramatic moment. Only two days before the scheduled date of our forum, north korea tested their sixth Nuclear Weapon, which they claimed was Hydrogen Bomb. It was too early for us to ensure felt tested Nuclear Weapon really a Hydrogen Bomb or really if the test had been successful. The current delegation tried to deliver a message that peace should be the top priority in any case and that it was time for the u. S. And rok to seriously engage north korea to stop their provocation, but for the Trump Administration, was still an option, and tensions between the u. S. And north korea escalated until the winter Olympic Games in february of the following year. In 2018, last year, the Career Foundation and csis agreed for our forum to be held in the wake of singapore summit no matter when it would take place. The summit was scheduled, canceled and finally revived. So was our meeting accordingly. We finally gathered a week after the singapore meeting. Assessment of the summit varied from person to person, but in my view it was hard to deny that at least the risk of physical conflict on the Korean Peninsula had been further reduced as a result of this meeting. Then came the hanoi summit, trump and kim was shot at the par addition of the u. S. Which was far tougher than what he had expected. Instead of slamming the door behind him, however, he kept it open for an additional round of talks. It is taking chairman kim several months to appraise the result of the meeting and to see his next move. In the meantime, he and President Trump have repeatedly confirmed their intentions of holding another round of meetings. According to media in seoul and beijing, chairman kim related to president xi jinping during his visit to pyongyang last week that he had made several positive measures throughout the year to ease tensions, but they did not seem to have been duly considered by the relevant country. While expressing his disappointment, he stressed that he would remain patient to solve the issues facing the peninsula, which is i think a good sign. While it is not yet clear if or when the third u. S. north korea summit will take place, President Trump keeps sending kind words to chairman kim, but also recently signed a document to renew u. S. Sanction measures against north korea. Still, expectations for a sustainable peace would remain high in seoul as a series of contacts between the leaders of the republic of korea, north korea, the u. S. And china have been made and planned. I suppose professional analysis will be provided by the panelists during the sessions today. There are many topics open to consideration including last weeks summit between china and north korea, planned summit between the u. S. And china in osaka and scheduled visit by President Trump to seoul. While in addition to monitoring interactions between the leaders of the region, it is interesting to note that president moon jay publicly sent a message to chairman kim during his recent visit to scandinavia. In his speech to the Swedish Parliament exactly ten days ago, he urged north korea that if sanction measures were to be lifted, the country would need to prove its genuine intentions for peace building. To this end he said continue the dialogues with members of the International Community for north korea are vital in building trust. President moon emphasized the importance of trust between the International Community and north korea as well as trust between south and north korea and trust in the value of dialogue itself. Well, ladies and gentlemen, the path to complete denuclearization and peace on the Korean Peninsula is never an easy one. Some of you may say it is an impossible job, but koreans believe these goals can be and should be achieved with the determination to stride forward unwaveringly and to overcome the obstacles ahead. Ultimately there is no alternative for koreans both south and north to live in peace. I believe koreans have learned enough lessons from previously missed opportunities to achieve these goals. The dialogue between the u. S. And north korea at the highest level is history of opportunity never seen before and may not come again if it fails this time. Korean dialogues and reconciliation measures cannot be sustainable unless the u. S. , north korea relations sets l tl a peaceful manner, no matter how limited role are and president moon may have to mediate, facilitate or expedite the dialogue between the u. S. And north korea, it will not be spared. Before closing, i would like to once more express my gratitude to csis for their efforts in preparing this conference and to all participants from both sides who participants from all sides. Thank you very much. [ applause ] thank you ambassador lee. For our keynote conversation and address i would now like you to join me in welcoming ambassador mark lippert and u. S. Congressman of california. Please join me in welcoming them. [ applause ] thats what the plan was. Okay. So, i thought i would open with a few remarks then we would get straight into conversation. Can you guys hear . Mic on . Ill just stand and do what i did as a College Professor. One. Of the Dangerous Things is when youre in a room of folks that are smarter than you and have more knowledge on the subject matter, we got to be really careful. So i thought i would give you the congressional perspective of how were looking at the Korean Peninsula and looking at long term Strategic Decisions because when youre talking about congress you set the bar kind of low and then well exceed it. So, i think a couple of thing. First off, i do want to thank csis and the Career Foundation for pulling this together, but also for your exceptional work in creating a body of balance that we use on congress but also being a resource for those of us on the hill. So thank you for that work and that sustained effort. Let me touch on a couple of areas. One, you know i do have the privilege of being the cochair, the democratic cochair on the Congressional Study group for korea. Now we have four study groups in congress. Japan, germany, europe and korea is the fourth study group. Folks have said well why korea . And the reason why i think we form this fourth study group is because when we think about the peninsula and we think about that path forward we know its going to take a long term sustained level of engagement. And the reason why i think that is so important from the congressional perspective is when you think about a United States president , youre thinking about four years or eight years. When youre thinking about a korean president youre thinking about a five year one term. And if were to take a realistic view of finding piece on the peninsula, it wont happen in four or eight years or a single five year term. It will require the long term strategic engagement, the long term goal and a study group and again thank to you the Career Foundation for being an integral part of helping us form the study group. I want allows members of congress in a sustained way to get to know their counter parts in the korean parliament, in the assembly. And build those long term relationships as well as the leaders. For me this is my seventh year in congress, my fourth term. It is conceivable ill be there for a while. And, you know, the best piece of advice i received when i first got elected to congress is you cant know everything and know every region of the world but find a few key areas where you can do a deep dive and become expert and build those relationships. And, you know, when i think about the peninsula, were thinking about long term. The ultimate goal is peace on the planet and on denuclearization. It wont happen by the end of the Trump Administration or the end of the Moon Administration. But its conceivable that a decade from now, a decade and a half from now, youve achieved that goal. Thats where congress is really important and thats where the study group i think gives us a vehicle by which we take members of congress of korea as well as welcomed members of the Korean Department to the United States and build those relationships. Thats one long term sustained engagement. A second piece is lets be realistic here. I dont think any of us sees as immediate next step chairman kim say im going to get rid of all my Nuclear Weapons. I also dont see as an immediate next step President Trump saying were going to lift all sanctions. But can we frame a long term goal of that is the long term outcome, the long term goal. Its going to take multiple steps to get there. What is that first immediate next step that starts to build a little bit of trust, a little bit of goodwill, because if we think about posthanoi, i dont believe we can have a third summit dialogue between the United States and north korea and walk away without some sort of victory. So that could be a small victory, that could be a small first step. But failure in having another hanoilike collapse i think would actually put the dialogue in a deep freeze and really, you know, maybe not permanently damage the relationship but probably set the relationship and dialogue back for several years, probably until the next administration. So, you know, that would be the second thing. Lets not focus on the end goal. Lets agree on what that end goal is and victor and i have had a privilege of writing an oped and laying this out in the korean press. Lets think what that first step is to get at least some forward momentum. A third piece is when we think about President Trump and chairman kim, the dialogue gets complicated because in most of these dialogues you would have folks at the staff level working out most of the agreement, getting to 95 of the greechagr and then the principals would gather together. With chairman kim, President Trump we have two folks who want to be negotiators. That adds an element, you know. On our side we have to have that sustained engagement from the satisfy level, from our special envoy, et cetera. And thats the level of complexity on the north korean side who is empowered to speak for chairman kim and lay things out and youre seeing some of that turn over in their negotiating team. But that has to be a prerequisite at the staff level guesting close to a place where if we go into a third dialogue there arent going to be any surprises and both the principals, President Trump and chairman kim c