Excellent panel and were start off with heather. Thank you so much. I think the arctic is the best place to talk about the intersection of climate stress and security. In many ways, the arctic is telling us, both polar regions are telling us theyre under the most stress as the arctic is warming two to three times faster than anyplace on the planet. In many ways, were now dealing with a very new ocean. In fact our former coast guard commandant called the arctic americas fourth coast. I thought that was a powerful way of thinking about it because Many Americans do not know the United States as an arctic nation to bring it home, this is homeland security. We now have a new coast that requires our protection. That is what in many ways the nexus between the rapid diminishment of the arctic polar ice cap is now creating new borders, new coasts to protect. Which is why we need enhanced coast guard presence. Certainly thats through the enhanced ice breaker component, what we call a polar security cutter. This always required deep water ports. Greater domain awareness. Were seeing an increase in commercial and human activity in the arctic. Its also this new ocean and the opportunities that this new ocean provides is really requiring a much more rethought i would argue about sovereignty in the arctic. This is certainly the russian governments perspective because russia is now developing a very ambitious Economic Development plan for the russian arctic. Which not only includes the development of oil and Gas Resources in the russian arctic, but also the creation of a major transit route, the northern sea route. What were seeing is russia needing to enhance the protection of the northern sea route. Theyre reopening oil fields, putting search and rescue Centers Across the northern sea route. Theyre also making important chan changes to the structure and how they regulate the northern sea route. Of course, what underpins all of this, both the science and environmental change were seeing in the arctic, as well as the economics, its all underpinned by science. Science is power in the arctic. Using traditional knowledge of the indigenous communities is power. Of course were trying to understand the Science Behind the changes were seeing in the arctic. Im going to touch on some of the key Security Issues. Its the good, bad and ugly if you will. There is some very good things that are happening in the arctic to manage this nexus between climate stress and security. First and foremost, i think at this point the arctic is wellgoverned. The United Nations convention of the law of the sea provides that maritime space with good legal frameworks for territorial waters, exclusive Economic Zones, as well as the high seas area around the north pole, the Center Arctic ocean. One of the most important forms of monitoring and innovating governing the arctic is through the arctic council, the Intergovernmental Forum that was created in 1996. It brings the five coastal states together. Plus iceland, sweden and finland. Whats important about the council that gets missed is that at the center is the indigenous communities. They have a seat at the table. Its their way of the table thats dramatically changing. The council has been groaning under the changes, both the Climate Change and the new demand on it. Right now there are 20 plus observers to the koucouncil. I would argue that very much changed the dynamic. The arctic is not just for the regional countries, its becoming a global issue because what happens in the arctic impacts the global environment. As chinas role became more and more apparent in the arctic and russia began to assert itself, now were at a point when were viewing the arctic through a lens of Great Power Competition. That was framed by secretary of state mike pompeo in finland of may of this year. He gave a stem winder of a speech that surprised some of the us where it came from, describing this Great Power Competition in the arctic. Nats chinas growing economic presence through infrastructure, thru i and of course russias increased military presence. These are challenging how the u. S. Thinks about it. But i always want to end with good news. So often in our line of work were just talking about challenges. I want to say the arctic has demonstrated great resilience and governance innovation. When we needed to strengthen the maritime shipping code in the arctic, it took it a decade, created the polar code which strengthens demands and mandates that ships must be hardened for traversing the arctic. Weve created an International Oil spill response agreement. We negotiated a fisheries agreement for the central arctic ocean. There are no finish in the central arctic ocean. This agreement puts a moratorium on that for 16 years until science tells us it could be okay if we needed to do that. We have innovations like the Arctic Coast Guard Forum which helps do that search and rescue, that oil spill response. Something whit and i have been looking at is getting to the high seas challenge to protect the biodiversity beyond the national jurisdictions, beyond the exclusive Economic Zones thats targeting those high seas area. Fisheries, biodiversity, shipping. You know what . Its a little chaotic right now, i dont think we have it all exactly the right place. Im very worried about the military dimension. Im worried about chinas dual use infrastructure in the arctic. Im heartened when i see innovation, pragmatic governance thats helping to protect the arctic. I want to end on a high note but looking forward to your questions, thanks. Thats great. Were going to turn to asia and the pacific. Asia is a crucible for Climate Change and security. If you think about it, its got two thirds of the global population, many of those are a poor populations. They live coastly. They rely heavily on seafood for nutrition. Theres already overexploitation of those fishing resources and its intensifying. The governments typically have low capacity to deal with those issues and then these in Southeast Asia, especially, these are the countries that are going to be hit hardest by Climate Change where some of those impacts will be felt the greatest. To put this in context i want to use indonesia. Ill start with that and ill back up a little bit. Indonesia is the second largest fishing power in the world in terms of amount of wild fish harvests. China is the first, obviously. Its a country that struggled with poverty, has 10 poverty rate of its 270 million people. 10 live below the poverty line, which indonesia is about 0. 76 a day. The fishing is often referred to as a last resort occupation, when agriculture and other jobs dont work out. You can go fishing. And so many of these postal communities depend upon fish for nutrition and for climb out of poverty. If youre not certain how important fisheries are at indonesia, google ministers, and ill sure youll pull up the photograph of the boats, the fishing boats that have illegally traversed into indonesian fishing waters. Its made her one of the most popular politicians in indonesia today. As an example of the role that fisheries play, i can tell you a little bit about a blue swimming crab fishery that edf works in. Its the third most important export commodity economically. Swimming crab. If you go to the chesapeake and order a crab cake sandwich, chances the local supply cant keep up with demand. Chances are very good youre eating blue swimming crab from indonesia and perhaps one from the java sea. 808 of the product goes to the y u. S. There are 300 people in that fishery as far as supply chain workers there. It brings in the country about 300 million. 300,000 people, 300 million, you do the math. That keeps these people just above that poverty line, but only hovering just above it. They remain vulnerable. Climate change, impacts will be very serious for communities like these. Sea level rise. Some of these communities are not just coastal, there is a fishing village that we work with thats literally built on a sand bar ten kilometers from shore with sticks sort of put down in the sand and theres a platform and women and children and fishermen live there so they can get further access to the fishery. Sea level rise is going to be challenging. The losses in productivity you heard about in the first panel, we heard global fish production may decline by about 4 or so. But regionally in places like indonesia could decline by as much as 50 . Thats because of the loss in fundamentally productivity and also because of fish migrating to cooler waters and polar northward and southward. So this is, of course, potentially catastrophic for these poor communities that are hovering on the poverty line. This will create a potentially downward spiral. If theres a loss of catch, the logical response is to fish harder. That makes these fisheries even more vulnerable to Climate Change. Theres an interesting link to understand here and its talked about in the report. Overfished fisheries are more vulnerable to Climate Change. And Climate Change will have a negative impact on fisheries. These communities that experience drops and catches will then make their own resources more vulnerable by overfishing. The governments in many of these places have little capacity to control that. So these communities have the potential to spiral downward. Another response to declining catches will be for fishermen to go further and further abroad. Many indonesian fishermen go right up to the border of the eez of australia and they fish along the line. Australias fisheries are wellmanaged and indonesian fishermen get the benefits. Weve seen choina do the same thing. This of course creates huge challenges in asia where the eezs are packed in so tightly that it will create a lot of potential for tensions to grow among countries. Turning to solutions. What can we do about this . The Number One Solution is to mitigate Climate Change, to reduce pollution number one. Number two, i would say is to promote low carbon energy, wind energy, wave energy, and perhaps thermal water energy as well. Solutions that promote blue carbon. The report speaks well to the issue of mangroves, salt marshes, sea grasses. But theres also the carbon thats found in increasing fish stocks. Reviving those to historic labels. There was a paper i saw recently that estimated that if you could replenish whale populations, thats two gig atons of carbon. Thats a startling number. Another potential way to mitigate is to eat more fish. This may sound controversial. We can talk about it in the q a. Beef is about 20 times more emissions per gram of protein in a life cycle analysis than seafood. Okay. But critically, as we heard in the last panel, we cannot just mitigate, we also need to adapt and manage. This is an urgent issue because of the link between fisheries abundance and resiliency. Its urgent we put in place good Fisheries Management in the countries that lack it. This is a food skirt issue. Numb we need to build capacity in these countries who dont have the experience to put in place management. Number two, we need to strengthen International Agreements because as they fish migrate, the countries that host fish that are leaving have every incentive to fish those populations down before they get across the border. The countries that might receive the fish are not going to want that to happen. There needs to be what we know again and again from observing fisheries around the world when theres unmanaged competition. It leads to a decline in the fish population. So there really needs to be an effort to strengthen these International Agreements. There are many International Agreements on fisheries, almost none of them contain climate provisions. Lastly, we need to develop solutions for some of these local communities like aqua culture, blue carbon and perhaps some Energy Solutions as well. There needs to be new Solutions Like that that can provide 92trition f9 nutrition for these communities. There is hope. There are examples that u. S. Fisheries are one of the best managed in the world. Its one of the greatest conservation Success Stories no ones heard of. Management can lead to fisheries rebounding. Its not just the u. S. , of course. Australia has done this, new zealand has done this. Namibia, chile and peru. You can rebuild fish populations. This increases resiliency to Climate Change. In asia theres hope as well. Japan last dates december passed resolutions. China has been implementing dramatic reforms to control overfishing and over exploitation of aquatic agriculture. Theres a lot happening. If countries gather together and promote aid to these countries to build capacity and can share their experiences, can share their experts and their financial resources, i think theres hope to avoid the worst for Climate Change for these countries. Excellent, thank you. Sarah, you can talk a little bit about thei endo pacific and eas africa. Im talking primarily about africa and the indian ocean. John provided an excellent segue into what is happening in countries around africa and the adaptive capacity that needs to be built. I agree kpleecompletely. In countries that are facing extreme impacts, their resources is not the driving factor. Theres a mismatch between the drivers of Climate Change and those in the world who will face the greatest impacts. The new special report makes that clear by showing the greatest impacts will be in the tropical latitudes. Arctics as well. When were talking about the number of people who live in given areas, the tropics are facing a disproportionate impact from Climate Change. Compared to other parts of the world. Some of the mid latitude regions. We wanted today give three examples of recent impacts of Climate Change there are happening in africa. The first was a tropical cyclone, the Hurricane Dorian of east africa. It happened in march of 2019. Over 1,300 people were killed in mozambique and several other countries around there. Currently they estimate over 2 billion worth of damage. And those type of events are made worse as we know by Climate Change. But they destroy the resilience of communities. We talked about ecological resilience, but Community Resilience is extremely important. Thats something we have a much greater ability to impact. The second challenge is whats happening in Central Africa between chad and nigeria. That lake has lost 90 of its water volume over the past 15 years. Thats not solely due to Climate Change, its also due to irrigation. That illustrates the problems were facing. The way we deal with lands creates positive feedbacks. In the area of lake chad in particular, the changes that are being seen in fishing communities and different agricultural communities that rely on rain fed water and the lake for irrigation, have created such levels of poverty Food Insecurity that these areas are becoming a bit of a recruitment for violent extremism. Theres not one direct line between Climate Change and violent extremism or even between poverty and violent extremism. I wish it were that simple. These issues are connected to one another. The third example ill mention is the ongoing drought in the horn of africa which is a terrestrial impact. Given the monsoon seasons, the drought that has been happening there for the past several years that has resulted in the displacement of millions of people internally and has put millions of children at risk from drought impact is made worse by climate warming. This is what africa and thei indian ocean is facing right now, carbon emissions. Part b of the special report looks specifically at the projected risks for people and ecosystems. And one thing that is incredibly valuable to the ipcc report, it puts levels of confidence around things. I wish those of us who look at the human impacts could be as confident in what we think the impacts will be as the people who study the physics and the biology. Its not a simple math equation. Theres a lot lower levels of confidence around what we expect those impacts to be on communities. But thats where the opportunity exists. That because we have the ability to impact through governance, policy changes, the way that human beings may changes in relation to their own behavior. That being said i want to put a pin on that and say it must be incumbent from us whos are creating the most emissions to not rely on developing companies to be the ones that fix our problems. We need to enable them and provide technical expertise. It cant be on developing countries to fix the problems weve created. I think there are three primary mechanisms i see in africa and the indian ocean that are linking Climate Change to Security Issues in the maritime realm. The first is direct competition for fimobile resources. The movement of fish, the changes in eezs. There was a great question from the audience about eez boundaries. Those boundaries will change slightly but with sea level rise. In africa there are 12 different maritime disputes over Economic Zone boundaries, which extend from the shore line out to 200 nautical miles. In Southeast Asia they overlap a lot.