Transcripts For CSPAN3 Trump Administration Diplomat Others

CSPAN3 Trump Administration Diplomat Others Discuss Iraqs Political Outlook July 13, 2024

Good morning and thank you all for joining us. Also our livestream audience. Im Atlantic Council president and ceo fred kempe. Thanks for joining us both here in the room and virtually for our conversation. If you want to use social media, use aciraq, aciraq. You know its an important event when the ambassador is here, when key members of our board are here and its always such a pleasure to have our International Advisory board member mijid jafar here. Thank you, Crescent Petroleum for this, for iraqi Global Energy center. Miji dichlt has been a person ive been stealing ideas from for a long time. He happens to be one of the best thinkers and actors both in the Business World and analyst of the region. And its always a pleasure to have him here as well. Todays event was organized by Iraq Initiative and global initiative. Our Iraq Initiative is led by abbas kadhim, who will be our moderator. Its been a game changer having abbas working with us. Hes one of those rare individuals who understands the workings of the country hes covering, iraq, to intimately, but also the workings of washington, which in many respects is sometimes more difficult to follow. This mornings discussion is very timely. Iraq is facing its most daunting crisis since isis with protests under way and citizens demanding reform as well as the news just yet that Prime Minister will resign. Despite the current unrest and unserpt about the future, iraq has made significant progress in recent years by carrying out elections and a peaceful transfer of power in the region where this is not the norm. We have to keep reminding ourselves of how unique that is. The United States and iraq have a long and complex history. We all know that. Iraqs relations with iran have strained aspects of u. S. iraq relations, yet its more important than ever for the United States and iraq to Work Together as partners. As we saw during the u. S. Mission last weekend that resulted in theof isis leader abu bakr al baghdadi. U. S. iraqi cooperation was one key ingredient for the success of that operation. We dont spend a lot of time on individual bilateral relations at the Atlantic Council across our 13 programs and senders that act on issues in all regions of the world. What we do is we focus on the bilateral relations we think have outsized importance. There is no doubt thats the case in iraq and, therefore, our Iraq Initiative. Today our expert panel will help us understand these dynamics and more. Before i turn the floor over to abbas to moderate the discussion with our panelists, id like to briefly introduce them. Rend al rahim is a former ambassador to the United States as well as a member of our Iraq Initiative Advisory Committee. Shes also the cofounder and president of the iraq institute. Joey hood, were always happy when someone can break loose of their government offices to come here. We know how demanding your jobs are. Hes the Principal Deputy assistant secretary of state in the state Departments Bureau of near eastern affairs. He spent much of his career working in the middle east and particularly on the arabian peninsula. He has served as deputy chief of mission in iraq and in kuwait as well as consulgeneral and principal officer in daran, saudi arabia. Mijid jafar is vice chair of the Crescent Group of companies. In addition, he serves on the board of trustees of the queen foundation, kalamat foundation, arab forum for environment and development and the iraq energy institute. He also sits on the board of fellows of Harvard Medical School and the International Advisory board of the Princess Trust international and, of course, the Atlantic Councils International Advisory board. The just to show the reach of the work that we do together with mijid and crescent, today in singapore we held the third workshop for a project called the role of oil and Gas Companies in the Energy Transition. It was held during the Singapore International energy week 2019 as part of their think tank roundtables sessions. The workshop gathered a number of individuals from a variety of Southeast Asian Research Institutions and local representatives of International Oil and Gas Companies and yielded key insights. I wont go into them here but they are issues mijid has pushed us to look more closely at, which is how oil and Gas Companies actually can take a leading role in a very positive role in an Energy Transition driven by broadening and enriching the energy mix through the companies that produce and market them to face challenges such as Climate Change and other issues, really thinking into the future. So, with that, ill turn the floor over to abbas and our panelists. But before i do that, let me salute will wexler, who has masterfully led our middle east programs, and his Principal Deputy and stephanie, who has been instrumental in working with abbas on this set of work around iraq. So, over to you, abbas. Thank you for being here. Im abbas kadhim. Thank you, fred, for the introductory remarks. Were honored to have an allstar panel today. You know, it is it takes that kind of an allstar panel to talk about iraq and the complexities of this country. So, without any introductions, we will have a discussion a little bit from the stage and then open the floor for the audience for questions. Im sure everyone has many questio questions. And the panel will indulge these questions and will answer and we will do our best to decipher or demystify what goes on in iraq. We really have to recognize everybody in the room. All of you are friends, and people who help us a lot with your presence, with your ideas, but i would be remiss if i do not recognize my good friend and the Advisory Committee member for the Iraq Initiative, ambassador who flew from indiana to join us for this event. Thank you, sir. And, again, the ambassadors and friends, all of you are welcome here and thank you for being here. Let me go with the rule of ladies first and talk to ambassador rend al rahim. Ambassador, youve seen these events unfold and you are one of the people who have been in this town and elsewhere, very informative and contributive to the debate. How do you see the protests, context regional and international, and where do you think they are going in terms of their influence on the political scene in iraq, the governments future, possible changes or are we going to have another wave of protests that will go home and then we will relive this once again . Hopefully not. But im interested to know where you see the future. Lots of questions. First, lets establish we are at a crucial and possible turning point in iraqs political development. There is no question, i think, from october 1st the protests have created a new narrative and new scenario and projected a new vision for iraq that we havent had. I wont say since 2003, we havent had for decades. The protests started, of course, as a demand of services, of jobs and so on. But what was interesting is that as they progressed and as violence began to be practiced against the protesters, the demands changed and then they became a demand for Holding People to account for corruption, a demand for resignations and so on. And then the final thing was a demand for wholesale change in the political system. So we really are now at a point where theres a direct ideological confrontation between protesters and between the Political Class that has vested interest. The protesters want complete change in all the principals, the system of governance weve had. The electoral law, the constitution, elections and a whole mass of institutions and documents that were, at the basis of the state after 2003. They want an overhaul of all of this and yet an overall is diametrically opposed to the Political Party and political interests that have become entrenched in iraq. Ideologically, not only physically, but ideologically, we have a confrontation. There have been attempts by the Prime Minister, by the president , of course by the majadia, there are attempts to say, we will reform, we will do the things the protesters are asking for but so far theres no indication from the establishment they really intend to go through this wholesale change in the political system. And, therefore, if we dont have a breakthrough in this confrontation, i dont were at an impasse and i think if the institutions of government and if the Political Class dont respond, we are going to have a continuation of the protests and my concern is theyre going to become more violent. Partly because there are signs now that some of the protesters are so fed up that theyre willing to go into armed conflict. More serious, more imminent, in my view, is there may be a confrontation between armed political groups themselves. Weve already seen some settling of scores, particularly among the shia militias. This has not been declared publicly but it has been understood on the street and in political circles that there are these efforts or actions of scoresettling. And i think that is the most dangerous thing that can emerge. That you have rival militias going against each other under the cover of the protests but really trying to gain the upper hand in a situation of chaos. Will go back through these and talk to them in our conversation. I would like to turn to joey. Last time we sat down in the embassy in baghdad, we had that beautiful outside seating and, you know, baghdad was looking more peaceful. That was in may of 2019. I went back in september and october. I witnessed the first week of the protests. And i visited the ambassador and we were talking about how things were looking better. There were two forums in baghdad in september. Both were talking about the economy and energy and unlike what used to be conferences about security and all of the other things, the green zone was open and you could drive through and it wasnt like youre driving through tunnels. And all of a sudden something just one thing led to another and like a volcano and things changed completely. I was counting days, would i be able to get out of the airport on time before they take it over. Thats the nature of iraq. From the American Point of view, United States has been the agent of change in iraq in 2003, has provided time and again so many assistance, packages to iraq on security and on other aspects, there is some strategic framework, and the u. S. Was instrumental in the help with the defeat of isis even though the iraqis did all of the heavy lifting and fighting. But it was very important for u. S. And International Communities engagement. Secretary pompeo made a statement of support for iraq in general. But my question is, where is the United States government now as it stands in terms of the protests, the government measures and also in light of the fact that, you know, the United States sensitivities must be considered. Some people think the United States should not publicly give any support for protests or any of that support, will not be viewed in different lens, but on the other hand, the u. S. Has its own long tradition of support of Democratic Change and reasonable pace which iraq has been going on and off on. What do you see the u. S. Government or where is the u. S. Government position right now on both these issues . First of all, thank you for having us here, abbas. Its an honor to be with you. And to be among so many mentors and friends and to once again say hello to the iraqi viewers who are watching. We are watching very carefully and closely whats happening in the country. Were very concerned about it. I think you heard us say several times that we call for nonviolence by all sides. That the rights of the protesters to protest peacefully should be and the demonstrators should not be violent, should not be carrying arms. Iraq is lucky to be one of the few places in the middle east where people can express their views loudly in the streets. As long as they do it peacefully, this is an extremely good way for the government to really know what theyre thinking and what theyre passionate about and to adjust course. And we recognize that we have to be careful about how we talk about these things because theres always people ready to criticize us and involve us in all sorts of conspiracy theories. But the reality is that we remain ready to help iraq built a stable and strong and sovereign government just like weve been doing. We think this is what the protesters want. This is what we want as well. Were ready to work with the government in putting together the any sort of reasonable response to the protesters demands, which we started to hear some of from his excellency, the president , yesterday. We would be interested to know what kind of timeline hes thinking about. We would be interested to know how we can be of assistance through the International Organizations or directly bilaterally. Were ready to help. Thank you. Mijid, youre the most important secretary in iraq because if not all at least, you know, the numbers go from 85 to 95 of the iraqi revenues come from the petroleum industry. And this cannot really stand without the support and participation of International Corporations that work in iraq and that contribute to the iraqi economy. There are also other businesses in energy like the ones who will deal with electricity and other projects that iraq is trying to accomplish. And also the rest of the industri industries. Now stability is very important for the work of these organizations and for your and companies corporations. Yours is one of those. And you take an important part of the iraqi industry there there is also stability is not only important for the International Corporations. We so even, you know, things like sports events. The Iraqi National team was supposed to play in basra and its either moved to another city or probably out of the country. So it is stability is really important. How do you think the International Business without their investors or corporations who work in iraq on the field view this and what are their sensitivities, their apprehension, maybe, or their fears, if you will also around the risks that can be coming out of this threatened stability and also to the continuation of the government . Thank you. Thank you for the easiest question so far. I am never going to do easy question. Its easier to talk about, you know, iraq taking whats below the ground and getting it up rather than, unfortunately, those who are above the ground being put into it. I hope and pray iraq achieves more of the former and less of the latter. So, the Energy Potential for iraq is huge. The proven reserves are 140 billion barrels of oil. That number, i believe, is well below the reality. Theres still hardly any exploration has been done. Its still very much in its infancy, the industry there, despite the fact were in the 21st century. And despite all the challenges, iraq is now achieving 5 Million Barrels a day, half a Million Barrels a day also from the kurdistan region. Really other than the United States, its been the big growth Oil Production and certainly the Fastest Growing in opec. That is despite the lack of legislation, the war on isis, the internal political wrangling over revenue sharing, the corruption, the lack of infrastructure. All those challenges, it has achieved such an incredible growth and maintenance of production. So, it just gives you an indication, if it can sort out some of the other necessary things, what is possible. I think you we as a company, were certainly very committed to iraq. Weve never stopped producing in the kurdistan region. We were awarded three more blocs with the federal government, including a difficult area which has been liberated from isis but we feel able to work there. Its really about Service Delivery. Jobs is key and the fact that growth has been sufficient is one of the reasons not only for iraq, around the world youre seeing a lot of these demonstrations because of insufficient growth and job creation. Service delivery in iraq has been a major drive since 2003. In particular, electricity, and clean water in the south was a big issue, especially in basra. And you know, it is a shame that despite such amazing resources, that hasnt been achieved yet. A lot of work is under way to try and, you know, achieve better delivery of these basic services. But the political system also needs to ge

© 2025 Vimarsana