Conference today on north korea. As we think about what might be coming down the road on the Korean Peninsula and the broader region, its very easy, i think, to succumb to the temptation to be pessimistic. In fact, as we sit here in washington today, it seems like theres all kinds of reason to be pessimistic. We seem to be facing on the home front a variety of challenges. Were in the midst of a wrenching president ial impeachment process. The broader country seems to have some deep cleavages societally. We have a big problem with mutual distrust in the country. When we look abroad internationally, the headlines we were reading this morning suggest we might be on the brink of a very dangerous war with iran. We last week read about the development of hype tr sonic weapons in russia and coupled with the demise of arms control and the return of great power competition, it looks like the world is getting ever more dangerous. Even American Relations with some of our longstanding allies seem to be strained to the breaking point. And i need hardly tell you all, experts on korea, that the news out of the peninsula is hardly encouraging these days. But if theres one lesson that i think we can take from the past several decades its that wise leaders and creative experts can manage and reduce the dangers that were facing internationally. Here in the United States, we overcame the domestic vitriol and violence that we faced in the 1960s during the vietnam era. We managed to avoid Nuclear Catastrophe with the soviet union. And end the cold war peacefully. We helped germany to pivot from being a potential nuclear battleground into a united regional leader. We transformed our relations with vietnam fundamentally. None of these problems at the time seemed any less daunting than the challenges we seem to face today in the world. So even though its attempting to stand aghast at the dangers that were facing, to marvel at the problems that confront us, we need to remind ourselves that its not our job to contemplate the problem just for the sake of being scared. Our challenge as experts is to think creatively about these problems, to understand the opportunities that are hidden amidst the dangers that appear so obvious. And to use our expertise, our understanding of these problems, to identify and take advantage of opportunities that are there even if theyre not evident on the surface. So i look forward to hearing your ideas today about these challenges. I want to thank harry kazianis, our senior director for korean studies for putting together such an impressive agenda today for discussion. And for gathering such an Impressive Group of experts today. I look forward to hearing your ideas. And i want to introduce harry who will talk more about the specifics of todays event. Harry, thank you. Good morning, everyone. Thank you all for coming. Welcome back to d. C. , if you are just coming back. I know everybody, this is the type of year where, you know, everybody takes extended break and comes back, and we have congress in session today, so thank you for spending your morning and maybe your afternoon with us. Im going to keep my comments very brief. Im just getting over bronchitis. I promise, im not contagious, but i do after about speaking for about five minutes, i lose my voice, and i want to give these guys a great panel and moderate that so im going to keep it very brief, and very short. Welcome to all of you. Welcome to those who are watching us now on cspan 2, for our event, north korea in 2020, fire and fiery or path towards peace. Very important, this event is cohosted and sponsored by the Korea Foundation thanks to a generous grant by them. To thank them for all their support, you know, and great efforts in this area, somebody thats really great to work with, and we appreciate that partnership. So what we want to do today i think is very straightforward. Over the course of, i think, three different panels, a lot of different speakers, different perspectives, different ideas, to really get a sense of where things are going to go with north korea in 2020, and look, i think its an open question of where this goes. Obviously the International Arena keeps moving with events outside of the korea peninsula. As george indicated, we have a lot of problems that are occurring in the middle east with the death of general soleimani, a lot of people have questions about where trump Foreign Policy is going at the moment. Those are a lot of things that i think are going to factor into issues on the peninsula. I think im going to just set the scene for a moment here, and talk a little bit about things, where they stand on the peninsula right now, and then i think we can move forward into dr. Moons keynote address. You know, at the moment, we have a north korea that continues to build more fi sil material, for 30 to 65 nuclear warheads, i think thats up for dispute, we have a u. S. North korea policy that unfortunately right now is essentially stagnant. We dont really have a clear understanding of where the Trump Administration wants to go in the next couple of weeks, and months. As many of you obviously know, were under a situation where the president has been impeached. Theres going to be a trial in the senate thats very hard to understand of where, you know, trumps Foreign Policy is going to go because of this. Will it stay stagnant the next month or two months, tough to say. On the other hand we have to factor in what will kim jong un do, will he for the next six, eight, nine months, hold back missile testing or Nuclear Testing and try to engage will trump be reelected, we dont know. These are open questions i think we have to sort of factor in. Also we have other events that are happening. In south korea we have elections that are coming up. Does this limit president moons ability to try and engage more with north korea, does he pivot to more domestic issues with the south korean economy looking to grow more in the coming year. These are all open questions. With that, let me just get to the, some of the procedural things that are going to happen today. All of you are think tank event experts but im going to lay these out anyway. Obviously with the number of cameras today, we are on the record, so keep that in mind. You know, as you can see by the conference itinerary, dr. Moon is going to open up everything and im going to introduce him in a second, then were going into our panels, three panels today, each one of our panelists, starting off with doug bando, jessica lee, they will be speaking for 10 to 15 minutes, and well go into the classic q and a. One thing i ask, while we may all know each other, our Live Audience on cspan does not know you. If you can give your name and affiliation, thats important, so everybody understands where youre coming from, news outlet, whatever. Then after our panel were going to have coffee breaks, a onehour lunch break, and well move into the afternoon session, so with that im going to introduce dr. Moon. Many of you know him, know him well, over the last year, 18 months, ive gotten to know him quite well. Great to call him my friend, one of the architects of south koreas sunshine policy and now in the government of moon jaein. He is special adviser to moon jaein. I will have to ask if hes speaking under his personal capacity or a different capacity, but its great to have you here dr. Moon, and we look forward to your remarks, thank you. Thank you, harry. I speak for myself not for the government. Let me clif thank you, harry. I speak for myself, not for the government. Therefore, let me clarify on that one too. And harry give me the topic of my talk as president moon jaeins peace initiative, challenges and opportunities. Ill try to sum it up his policy and the challenge his government is facing in less than 20 minutes. Okay. And then maybe we can have an open discussion. President moon was inaugurated on may 9th, 2017. First year, 2017 was nightmarish year. It was a crisis for him, but in 2018, he opened a new horizon of peace by holding three talks with chairman kim jong un. And then 2019, particularly since the hanoi talk, now hes facing major stalemate. Up and downs, and if you look at the korean history, it was the history of the one year good, the other bad, and were having constant living under the uncertainty. But you know, going through the ups and downs, president moon jaein made it clear, his goal is to make Nuclear Weapons free, and set four major principles, first principle is no war at any cost. The premise of peace has been the fundamental base of his policy line. It is quite obvious because hes a refugee from north korea during the korean war. Therefore he himself witnessed the tragedy of the war. He wanted to avoid war for whatever means. Second, no nukes. He wanted Nuclear Weapons free Korean Peninsula. He support peaceful use of at Atomic Energy but opposed transport, testing of Nuclear Weapons. He stick to 1991 joint declaration under the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. We have been abiding by that declaration, north korea has not been abiding by that declaration. So no nuke is his second principle. Third principle is that the no regime change in north korea. And he wanted to build a constant with north korea. He wanted to have new ways of communicating and coexisting with north korea. I would say no regime change. He made it very clear, that point, when he give a speech at in berlin on july 6th, 2017. He still abide by that principle. Finally, he believes that the south korean economy is dependent on the north korean economy. North Korea Department on south korea too. We can prosper. Those are the four principles. Then he has laid out the four main strategies. First strategy, the strategy of Peace Keeping. Here Peace Keeping means that suppressing the possibility of war through military deterrence and strengthening of our alliance. This idea of Peace Keeping really arose out of the crisis in 2017. It was a kind of past dependence he formed preceding conservative govr government. He strongly believed one way of preventing war is having Strong Defense capable. And he believes in the alliance with the United States. Second strategy is called a peacemaking strategy. He wanted to reduce tension with north korea. He wanted to build a constant with north korea. He wanted to adopt an end of war, end of korean war declaration. He wanted to transform an armistice agreement into some sort of Peace Agreement or treaty, and he wanted to sustain viable peace regime in the Korean Peninsula. In fact, that has been one of the most important strategies of the moon jaein government. Third, hes interested in peace buildings. Peace building refers to the elimination of codes of war on the Korean Peninsula. He strongly believes that the peace economy can lead to peace building. Okay. Its north and south korea make economic corporation, okay. And if they agree to come up with some kind of arrangements through which people, goods and services can move freely across the dmz, and if north and south korea can pursue common prosperity, he strongly believes that there wont be any war on the Korean Peninsula. In a sense, it is like emanuel kant in a Permanent Peace theory, particularly article one of Permanent Peace theory, trading state. And finally, he emphasized proactive diplomacy. Korea has been sandwiched between china and the u. S. , between dplk and the United States. He want to pursue more proactive diplomacy. He want to be a mediator, facilitator, arbitrator or pace setter of the Korean Peninsula destiny. Okay. Therefore, he doesnt want to be a passive dictator, to changing external security environment. He did it in 2018 when there was a complete impasse between washington and pyeongchang, he played a crucial role of facilitator between washington and pyeongchang. Those are the four major strategies of moon jaein government peace initiative. What are the challenges and opportunities, you clearly saw and witnessed the new horizon of peace, particularly on april 27 last year. I was there. I saw the great possibility of peace on the Korean Peninsula. North and south korea adopted a military agreement on september 19th in pyongyang. There was article i of a declaration. Since then, last year, showed up in west coast, and ordered test exercise of missiles. There was perhaps the only violation of military agreement adopted in 2019 2018. In a sense, there has been progress. But overall, moon jaein government is facing several dilemmas and challenges. First is the dilemma of Peace Keeping. A way of enhancing Peace Keeping capability, he was strengthening the current capability, and then our government had been purchasing 35, we have a Security Global hub, high altitude, you know, unmanned drone, surveillance, in a device, and strengthening, and will be spending almost 50 trillion. There is a slightly larger than defense spending of japan in this year. North koreans are angry about it, saying the south korea not sick, and the military built up, but because of what happened in 2017 and also decisions made by the previous government, he had to follow to strengthen the line. Therefore, the idea of Peace Keeping is extremely selfdefensive but north korea think it is really offensive. Which is well orchestrated with the United States. Therefore Peace Keeping has been sort of backfiring. Okay. Peacemaking, president moon proposed parallel approach, denuclearization and peacemaking, but we are not making any progress in denuclearization, peacemaking has become start. Okay. Of course we are maintaining september 19ths military agreement to some extent. However, we are not able to adopt end of war declaration. To have no discussion about the transformation of armistice agreement into some sort of peace treaty among major stake holders. Okay. We talked about peace regime, but we havent really touched peace regime. Therefore peacemaking is undergoing major difficulty. Peace building, you know, peace building, we got to have what, peace economy working, you know, to make a peace economy working, but International Sanctions prevent south korea from engaging with north korea. For example, president moon strongly desired to have Railroad Connection reconnected between north and south, he even had a Ground Breaking ceremony in january last year. But Nothing Happened afterwards. Okay. And he wanted to reopen complex at mount project, okay, because, International Sanction regime he couldnt do anything. The North Koreans argued that south korea hasnt delivered anything to north korea. Therefore, hes having a real hard time in pushing for the idea of peace building through peace economy. Proactive diplomacy, contrary to what conservatives have been criticizing, we have been betting on the United States 100 , particularly since november 2018, we have been 100 coordinating with the United States. We have shown 100 transparency to the u. S. , we got into korean economy exchanges incorporation. As a result of that interkorean relations have become completely frozen. Now we have a dilemma, what should we do, if you can not make a breakthrough in his talk with north korea. I dont know what action president would take but both sentiments in south korea, if the u. S. Reopen negotiation with north korea and come up with some kinds of negotiated settlement with north korea, moon jaein supporters, south korea should take an independence action. Okay. If i would say we are going through critical period. Okay. And moon jaein needs continuing support from his supporters. If president moon cannot deliver to his supporters, then hell face political dilemma. So in a sense, hes complete right now, but even hell be giving new years speech, i think tomorrow, washington time, and i will say that he will continue to rely on the United States in solving the problem, okay, but i dont know to what extent he can really go along that line. In conclusion, i would say that his Korean Peninsula initiative has been bold, ambitious and timely. But hes encountering all those challenges, facing numerous impediments, can you overcome them, i do not know, but it all depends on to what extent he can communicate with the United States and come up with a common strategy to solve the problem. Okay. But i really hope that north korea would come back to the negotiation table. North korean grievances, now it is time for north korea to come back to the negotiation table and try to find out some kind of a negotiated settlement. The United States needs to be more flexible and realistic. Okay. You cannot really, you know, pursue the strategy of denuclearize first that wont work. Okay. Tell you why north korea has responded by saying you permanently, and ir reverboth s to come up with some kind of compromised approach, and also need to be more bold, okay. Very interesting report under the name of risk realism, and he was arguing that yes, we can set the goal of denuclearization, but an approach to north korea, we mi