Coming up on American History tv, a discussion with the author of the book 1948, Harry Trumans improbable victory and the year that transformed america. Good morning, everyone. Welcome to the clifton park half moon public library. We are very pleased to have david patrusia to talk about his latest book 1948. Harry trumans improbable victory and the year that france formed america kwoo. Hes been here in the past about his book about Arnold Rothstein and the book of 1920, the year of six president s and 1960, lbj versus jfk versus nixon, the silent cowls almanac and the homespun wit and wisdom of vermont, Calvin Coolidge and ted williams, my life in pictures. He produced a wmht documentary, local heroes, baseball and Capital District diamonds. Reviews for his harry truman book talk about how lively it is and illuminating portraits and the evenhanded appraisal for truman is especially compelling. What it takes to get us to election day is one thats definitively become the best at leading and in his past his work has been compared to theodore whites passing the making of the president s series. After three straight home runs i think he is the undisputed champion of chronicling the campaigns. He holds a masters degree from the university of albany and served on the city council of amsterdam, new york, and is the recipient of the 2011 excellence in letters and arts award of the Alumni Association at the university of albany. In addition to doing president ial biographies and elections, he is also a member of sabra, the baseball historian organization. He is a casywinning judge and jury and an edgar Award Finalist for his book on Arnold Rothstein. Ladies and gentlemen, david patrusia. [ applause ] thank you, natalie, and its great to be back here again and the question that people always ask me about my books is why did you write this book . And americans claim to hate politics, but we love elections. We love sports. My sports background, your sports background. The whole country is crazy about it. We love the competition. We love the 162game series and the the things going down to the seventh game of the world series. We love mazeroski hitting the home run and we love bill butler and Mookie Wilson and 1948 is one of those mazeroskimookie bill butler elections and this is when the underdog comes back and pulls out when everyone has written them off. Thats Harry Trumans improbable victory. Thats the year that was, thats the election that was and the great iconic comeback. The great surprise, the great surprise when the pundits are proven so spectacularly wrong. Thats another thing we love. We love to be smarter than all of the guys you see on tv and writing the newspaper columns. And harry truman who was just an ordinary harry, the only the only president of the 20th century who doesnt go on to college. Hes a high school graduate. Not the only one since, not the last one. The only one of the 20th century. You have to go back to andrew johnson, to Abraham Lincoln to find such a common man and not just a common man, but a fellow who has been a failure at business, his famed haberdashery shop and pays them all off. He wont declare bankruptcy. He has a standard of honor and he will pay all his debts. He also has a standard of honor which marks him in his earlier political career where he is the product and hes known for really most of his active political career as being the product of one of americas most spectacularly corrupt, political machines this is something by al smith is never able to transcend. Hes the product of tameny and he gets whooped by Herbert Hoover for that and many other reasons. He is the product of this machine in kansas city. Hes the head of the county government for them. They steal millions and millions of dollars and harry truman never gives a dime and he has to wink at what goes on in some cases and he has to get things done. He would sit down. He would sit down and pour out his soul to private letters which he never sent to anyone. He was holed up in this hotel and write out these letters that were found decades after his death as he would wrestle with these questions. Am i a Public Servant or am i a crook . Am i doing the right thing . Hes conflicted by this, but he stays in this machine and it was to get out of local government and he wants to be a congressman and hes such a puppet and such a nobody even at that time that its, like, no, harry. You cant be a congressman. Can i be can i be governor . No, you cant be governor. When the machine cant run for the United States senate in 1934. Okay. We now return to our regularly scheduled programming. [ laughter ] so the machine cant find anyone to run for senate, United States senate in 1934. Youd think they could. Its going to be a big democratic year. Harry pulls it off, but he goes into the senate again. Hes, like, a nobody. A nobody, and then disaster strikes. 1939, pendergast on good friday goes to the federal pen for corruption and people say, well, thats the end of harry truman now. Whos going to want him . Who will want this pendergast puppet to remain in the United States senate . His mentor is finished and so is he. He faces a threeway primary and wins. He goes to all the small towns and courthouses and masonic temples and every other place he knows in missouri and wows them. Pulls it off and its a valuable lesson when it comes to 1948 and the Democratic Party is split once again, but hes still back in the senate. Who is he in hes given an assignment. Look into all these military bases, the defense contracting things were doing to win the war against hitler and tojo. Are we giving them the bang for their buck . Are we spending money wisely . Harry truman goes around, gets in his car and really, no staff, no expense, delivers a remarkable report that no, were not. Were wasting a hell of a lot of money while our boys are fighting and dying in europe and north africa and the South Pacific and we have to stop it and heres how. People say gee, whiz. He did that intelligently, honestly in a nonpartisan manner. Maybe theres something to this harry truman guy which takes us to 1944. Franklin roosevelt is looking for a fourth term. The war is still on and in 1940 he had dumped his Vice PresidentJohn Nance Garner who had grown a bit too conservative for a new deal, and he puts in henry a. Wallace as secretary of the agriculture who is a very leftwing, kind of new age kind of guy for back then, and he forces wallace on the ticket in 1940. The democratic 40 does not really want him and in 1944, roosevelt is getting his war back. You keep this guy on the ticket and he can cost you a million votes. Roosevelt is a great politician. He knows what this means and he says, ive forced Henry Wallace on the party once. I cant do it twice. I cant do it twice. Hes got to go. Not in so many words. Not in so many words, but he eventually slits wallaces throat. So who do you replace him with . The guy you replace him with is a guy thats not too southern, not too northern, not too conservative. Not too liberal. Respected by the unions, but not really in the pocket of the unions and thats harry truman. He fits in all the slots. They put him on the ticket in 1944 and by april 1945 Franklin Roosevelt is dead and harry truman goes to the white house and says to eleanor roosevelt, can i pray for you and she says, no. We need to pray for you because you are the fellow who is in trouble now. He starts off very popular. The war is won. The atomic bombs are dropped on japan. Theres v. J. Day and america is at peace, finally, and harry truman reaches a por lairity level of 27 . It goes downhill real fast and people, some of that is beyond his control, but there are there are reasons why his popularity drops. Hes not Franklin Roosevelt. Rid now all of the republicans are saying who is the next reagan . Boy, we miss reagan a lot, and back then it was, by god, by god how we miss fdr among the democrats and harry truman was no fdr. So theres a longing for the lost leader there, and also hes prone to certain gaffes and his appointments are not always the strongest and theres talk about the missouri gang of people that are hangers on and small timers who are put into positions way above their abilities. You see the old new dealers being shoved out of the cabinet and not just Henry Wallace who was fired by harry truman for being a prostalinist, really, giving speeches against the truman Foreign Policy, but you also have where with harry truman the country turns against the party and the leader which brings us into war. If you dont believe me, ask either bush. Ask lyndon johnson, Woodrow Wilson after world war i, what happens to the Democratic Party. What happens to winston churchill, a pretty good war leader in 1945. Hes out the door. So this is a normal thing. The readjustment means a lot of things gets thrown out including parties in power. Republicans take the house and the senate in 1946. They were on a roll. Harry truman keeps going up and down in the popularity. By the bring of 1948 hes down in the low 30s in terms of popularity and its not only a republican democrat thing going on here. The Democratic Party is splitting three ways, not just two ways, not just youve got some sort of oh, carter Teddy Kennedy thing going on, not a george bush pat buchanon thing going on, but its being split, the left, the center and the right. On the right, you have the southern segregationist democrats. Franklin roosevelt had talked a good game with black civil rights, but he really hadnt done anything. Remember that the army, the navy in world war ii are still segregated. Theres no move to desegregate anything in the country. Harry truman proposes a big Civil Rights Program at the 194. The southern democrats are simply aghast by this. And beyond that, they feel personally betrayed because they thought as harry truman as one of their own. His mother had been in an internment camp run by the union during the civil war. Confederate sympathizers. If you look at harrys statements and you look at his privacy correspondence, hes not exactly a bleeding heart liberal on the topic. But he puts this forward and the southerners are aghast. They Start Talking about a strategy in which they will punish harry truman. They will punish the Democratic Party. They will make the Democratic Party come to its senses on civil rights and states rights and all of these things. And they will do this by putting the election into the Electoral College and brokering a deal. And one of the people involved in that is a young man, a young governor of South Carolina named jay thurmond. Considered at the time to be a progressive, liberal, newdeal kind of democrat. The new face of the south. Once he gets caught up in this, when the South Carolina legislators and such Start Talking against the truman Civil Rights Program, he joins with the dixiecrats in going to these regional meetings in saying, what can we do about harry truman. Now the irony of this when thurmond starts being carried away by this, talking about how the federal governments bayonets will not force black people into our swimming pools, homes, schools, is that jay Strum Thurmond has a black, illegitimate daughter. Thats one wing of the Democratic Party in 1948. The other wing which seems actually to be more troublesome to harry truman is the Henry Wallace wing. And that is the extreme left wing of the Democratic Party beyond the new dealers, beyond the eleanor roosevelts, beyond the Hubert Humphries which is in many cases communistdominated, communist party of the United States of america. Not just left wing, not just radical whatever. But actual party members. And as Wallace Wallace has a problem in that hes been cast aside not once but twice and both times involving harry truman. You would not be human unless you were bitter about this and you have this bitter former Vice President of the United States with leftwing proclivities anyway and now he has two reasons to be against harry truman personally and hes talked into not a primary challenge against truman, but a thirdparty challenge. Whats their strategy . Again, whats their strategy . Since the strategy is being dictated from the extreme left wingers, from the people being controlled by really moscow, when you get down to it, its got to be that there again, trying to not win an election, but to send a message to truman and say, look, you change your Foreign Policy, Democratic Party. You change your Foreign Policy harry truman because we will punish you and give the election to the republicans. And then well go back to the way it was under Franklin Roosevelt with a guy we can deal with. In 1944, the communist party of the United States had actually endorsed Franklin Roosevelt. Did not run a candidate. It was kind of one Big Happy Family at one point. So truman is being squeezed on the left and on the right. Hes in trouble. And how can he hold together a coalition which will have enough electoral votes to win if the south is going to be stolen away by him by the dixiecrats and where does Henry Wallace hold his strength . Not all over the country, but in big states like new york, in new york city, in southern california, in illinois, where he can be the balance of power in those states and tip states which a democrat should win into the republican column. So the republican column. Who is the republican going to be . Same answer at some point as we have now, looking forward to 2012, a very crowded, confused field. Typical, typical when you have a president who an incumbent who is vulnerable. When the opportunity is there, then a lot of opposition candidates come out and the four frontrunners that year governor thomas e. Dewey of new york. New york is the big kahuna. 45 electoral votes. You take that, you have a big leg up on the presidency. Harold e. Stassen, former governor of minnesota, now a punch line in american political history because he ran and lost so many times with absolutely no chance of success. Robert a. Taft. Senator from ohio, leader of the congressional republicans, de facto. Mr. Republican, mr. Conservative, but as they say, dull as paint. Not charismatic, and the fourth is not even in the country, douglas mcarthur. In tokyo running the former or i guess still present, empire of japan. And a popular guy. But can he pull it off from faraway . He doesnt. Hes entered in the wisconsin primary. He should win that. He doesnt. He stumbled. Hes out fairly quickly. There arent a lot of primaries that year. Theres a New Hampshire primary. Theres always the New Hampshire primary. Theres the wisconsin primary which mcarthur should win and doesnt. He loses it to harold stassen. Stassen is an outsider. Hes a boy wonder. In 1938, he had been elected governor of minnesota. He was the youngest governor of any state ever. Then he quits. Hes reelected saying, you know, if you reelect me, im going to quit in four months and go in the navy. And hes so popular, hes still elected. Imagine being elected with a platform like that. He comes out, hes an internationalist. Hes a youve got the debate still going on, internationalism, versus isolationism, stassen is on the extreme end of the republican internationalist brigade at that point. Hes an outsider. He wins in wisconsin, he wins in nebraska and hes poised to take the frontrunner status away from Thomas E Dewey as the campaign heads into oregon. Again, know this, ive only named four states. These are about the other four important primaries they are. Most of these things are being done at party conventions, in the back room, places like albany or columbus or wherever or when you get to the convention. Now, oregon is where we see something happening which is being repeated again this year. Debates. Were debating, were debating, were debating. And you see newt begin rich saying i want a lincoln douglasstyle debate on one topic. It doesnt matter who the guy or gal is, hes calling for that sort of debate. What he should be calling on historically, because hes a great historian, is a Stassen Dewey model debate. The Stassen Dewey debate is the first broadcast debate in president ial history. Its held in a Radio Station in portland, oregon, and its held on one topic. Two guys in the room in the iron cage on the top, should the communist party of the United States be outlawed . Harold stassen, the great liberal, in the affirm