Looking as carefully as is humanly and scientifically possible, we have put the state of mississippi into the Carter Carter column, and that is that. The electoral vote, by our calculations, 272 electoral votes to 153 so far for gerald ford, the opponent. Election 1976, day of decision. This is Richard Scanlon in washington. With me here today in our studios is professor Howard Penniman of georgetown university, mr. Stephen hess of the brookings institution. Today, we are going to try to discuss tuesdays bicentennial president ial election here in the United States. Not every last vote has even been counted now, though the provisional final totals are posted behind me, both in electoral and in popular votes for mr. Carter and for president ford. As you know, in this bicentennial president ial election, as in all of our elections in the long history of the republic, the actual winner is determined not by the millions of people who vote for but ratheror ford, by the 51 elections held in the states and district of columbia. Each state has assigned to it a number of Electoral College votes equal to its congressmen and senators combined. Alaska, thus has three, minnesota has 10, the big states even more. The combination of these electoral votes to a majority of 270 is what determines the winner. On wednesday morning very early, jimmy carter reached that 270 and a bit more, and was projected as the next president of the United States. He is now president elect carter. Today we want to talk about why he is president elect carter, why president ford did not make it in his campaign for a full term on his own in the white house. We are going to be joined in a sense this morning by a fourth participant, our map, red and green colors, light and dark to indicate how those 51 separate elections were decided in this country on tuesday. To tell you about that, my colleague professor penniman. If we look at the map now, the green colored states, the ones which went for carter, are predominantly here in the east, but as we move westward it is the red states that went for ford. What we will notice also is that in the Eastern States where the green colors are, the numbers in them are very large, for the most part. Top, and those are the number of electoral votes. New york, 41, ohio, 25. And down to this area of the south is macron area that has voted democratic in this election, but had been divided in the preceding elections. Years ago it was always democratic. But it began to break with the democrats in the 1960s and has stayed as a divided area until this time. Moving out west, what we have is the big farming area there in the midwest, and the west, and finally out to california with 45 electoral votes, and still further out the island of hawaii with four and alaska with three. The east went heavily for carter, the south also. The west went heavily for ford. I think, too, as we look at this map and see red and dark and light colors, we can see the relative value of carrying the east with its big states. When you get out into idaho and utah and wyoming and nevada, you have a great deal of land, but you do not have many people. And it is the people who count in this democracy, as in any. Only when you get out to the far west coast when you come into california do you have that huge block of 45 votes, which late, late Election Night it was determined would go for the president in his Reelection Campaign. As you look at the geography of that campaign, what you will see is that of the really big states just look at them with me. 45, 26 for mr. Ford. 25, 27, 26 for mr. Carter, 21, again, michigan for mr. Ford. They were pretty evenly divided and that is why weve got a close election. When you get those big states both in the quadrangle of the northeast and in california and texas, you get those big states going solidly one way or the other, you end up with a landslide, republican or democratic. But what we got on tuesday night was a fairly Even Division of those big states and the Electoral College count, which is reflected on these boards just behind me. I think it is important we stress this was a close election. Mr. Ford actually won more states than mr. Carter, as we have stressed. They have been small states, in terms of electoral votes. Out of some 80 Million People who went to the polls, there are less than 2 million votes separating the two candidates. Mr. Ford received 48 of the vote. Mr. Carter, 51 . Another 1 went for eugene mccarthy, an independent candidate. The question is then, in part, is there a clear mandate for the president who wins this narrowly . In fact, it is even narrower than those figures. Because of the Electoral College somem, you could work out formula in which only 5000 votes spread over two states would have made a difference. Some people say a president who has won by such a small amount may be more cautious, may not feel he has a clear mandate. Only time, of course, will tell. My own personal view the president no matter how closely they win the election, they operate as if 100 of the people voted for them. Yes, i think if you go back to John Kennedys election in 1960 when he won by 100,000, 125,000 votes, his view was that the mandate went with the oval office, it did not go with the size of the boat. I feel mr. Carter will feel he is there, just as mr. Nixon was there in 1968. Margin of whater , one third we have posted up here for mr. Carter. I dont think that there will be any problem on that. The generalization is very few people who run for president are timid. And these are not timid men, as they intend to rule and lead the country when they seek the job in the first place. I think this is certainly true. If you have got the pride and guts to run for president , you are not going to once get in the office and start biting your fingernails in frustration. You are going to say, look, the people put me here, as they did under our constitution by only a percent over half, and a very real sense here, but there they are. These big states, as i say, going 43 for mr. Carter with the margin. I think this is a useful point to make to friends overseas, some of whom are in parliamentary systems there are coalition governments, where there are not fixed elections, but a combination of opposition parties can bring down governments. This was a very close election, but mr. Carter is the president for four years and can be expected to act decisively , regardless of how close the election was. Yes, i think we could not emphasize this point enough, because there is not a tiny coalition which is going to be in theown by some cabal corridors of the congress. God willing, he will stay president during his full term. Whether he will be good or bad, we will be willing to make a judgment. At that will be up to the people to make a judgment in 1980. The size of his vote or absence of a mandate would affect him, i just do not believe it. With 51 , he has a good deal more than many a Political Party that forms an actual government, and i think he will go ahead with it. I suppose that there is one other thing should be said. He has the majority in both houses, democrats. It should also be said that the democrats in the house and senate are also elected separately and independently, and there may be times in the next four years when the president and congress will disagree, and he may indeed feel it necessary to veto the letters passed by the two houses. It is a system of separation of powers, and it is one therefore thehich, in spite of agreement at a party level in terms of policies which they may support or oppose, there sometimes be differences between may the white house and the government. Want to get back, if i can, to the anarchy of our party system in a moment. Right now, lets turn to some of the scenes of election day, tuesday, november 2, 1976, when the bicentennial of america was celebrated by the election of a new president. The first tuesday after the first monday in november is election day in United States , and like millions of other americans, the candidates themselves went to the polls. President ford voted in his home town grand rapids, michigan withre he and misses ford votes hoped by the end of the day would maintain him as president for a full term. Carter and his wife cast their ballots in georgia. As early returns started to come in, both candidates were optimistic. Although carter held an early lead, there were many votes yet to be counted and key states with a large number of electoral votes to be won. He feels ok. Right now, the president has not lost any state that we consider to be necessary for him to win the election. He is still optimistic he is going to win the election. It is really coming down to those eight big states, and the results in those big states have not been determined yet, except for new jersey, which the networks have declared for the president. But we still have pennsylvania, ohio, illinois, michigan, texas, and california to go. Obviously those states are going to determine the outcome, and the president is looking good in those states. A slight National Trend towards carter was becoming apparent, but neither candidate was filling a substantial majority in the key and does some of the states. Industrial states. Gerald ford and jimmy carter each knew to win the presidency they had to carry at least some of the heavilypopulated Eastern States, with large blocs of electoral votes. I think jimmy carter is going to win. We feel very good tonight. We have had no unpleasant surprises. We have had several very pleasant do you think this surprises. Election will have to go all the way to the california coast . Are you hoping to wrap it up earlier . We are hoping that by the time we reach well into midwest, we are looking well in michigan, well in illinois, pennsylvania, ohio. They can do it. 270 electoral votes would constitute a majority and indicate a victor. As the hours went by, jimmy carter got closer. How do you like the results so far . I love it. I love it. Is jimmy carter going to lose this election, miss lillian . Heck no. The best thing we had today was the large turnout. Regardless of who wins tonight , whether president ford is reelected, if jimmy carter is elected, the American People expressed themselves today and turned out in large numbers. I think that is the big story thus far today. We have been through this for the last couple of years, the fight between Big Government and you, the individual. And returning the country to the American People. This is what president ford is, the American People. [applause] John Chancellor of nbc news looks at the remaining states. And of those remaining, aside from california with 45 electoral votes, oregon has six, but carter is behind in oregon. South dakota has four, that is not enough. Maine has four, that is not enough. Mississippi has seven. That would be enough to put him over the top. And as of the moment, it is a very complicated and tight race in mississippi, jimmy carter is ahead. James earl carter of the state of georgia elected the next president of the United States. We base that on our projection that carter wins mississippi, seven electoral votes, which gives him the total of 272 electoral votes in this election. To repeat, looking as carefully as is humanly and scientifically possible, we have put the state of mississippi into the carter column, and that is that. [applause] thank you very much. Thank you, everybody. [applause] let me say just a word. Let me say just a word to you. [cheers and applause] this tremendous crowd at 4 00 in the morning represents hundreds of millions of American People who are now ready to see our nation unified, and i want to congratulate the toughest and most formidable opponent anyone could possibly have, president gerald ford. [applause] it is perfectly obvious that voice is not up to par and i should not be making very many comments, and i will not. Betty, mike, jack, steve, susan me gail to come down with and listen while eddie rose read a statement that i sent to governor carter. The president asked me to tell you that he telephoned president elect carter a short time ago and congratulated him on his victory. The president urges all americans to join him in giving your united support to president elect carter as he prepares to assume his new responsibilities. I would like to read you the telegram the president sent to president elect carter this morning. Dear, jimmy. It is apparent now that you have won our long and intense struggle for the presidency. I congratulate you on your victory. As one who has been honored to serve the people of this great land, both in congress and as president , i believe that we must now put divisions of the campaign behind us and unite the country once again in the common pursuit of peace and prosperity. Although there will continue to be disagreements over the best means to use in pursuing our goals, i want to assure you that you have my complete and wholehearted support as you take the oath of office this january. I also pledge to you that i and all members of my administration will do all that we can to assure that you begin your term as smoothly and as effectively as possible. May god bless you and your family as you undertake your new responsibilities. Signed, gerry ford. I deeply appreciate the call from president ford and his gracious expression of congratulations and cooperation. I express my admiration for him and for the strong, wellplanned, and Effective Campaign that he ran. I am particularly grateful for his offer of close cooperation during this transition period between the election and inauguration day, and also during the next administration. I look forward to working with president ford and others like him, who even though divided partisan affiliations, are united by common devotion for this country and for the wellbeing of our people. Thank you very much. I deeply appreciate your confidence in me. [applause] that was jimmy carter in plains, georgia, in a sense accepting the duties and obligations of the presidency of the United States. But here in our studios, we want to talk now about what it was who was it, how was it that he got elected. Who in the electorate supported him . Who did not . If he owes anything anybody, personally, to whom would it be owed . I would like to start our discussion by giving a personal view which came back from watching elections in the 1940s roosevelt was in his elections. As i saw that map coloring as it is here today, what we were really seeing is a rebirth of the Old Roosevelt Coalition of those elections of the 1940s. Attenuated a bit, pressed down perhaps, the south not as strong for carter as it was for roosevelt, the north not as strong for ford as it had been for the republican candidates of those days. In a sense, this election was a return to normalcy. It was a circumstance in which the older issues, largely economic, introduced by the depression of the early 1930s , came so to dominate american politics in the 1930s and 1940s that this was the base upon which men like roosevelt were elected. I think this may well be what elected jimmy carter in our bicentennial year. Well, the map certainly looks alike. The elements then would be primarily what used to be called the solid south, that is solid for the democratic party. Helped in the fact that the democratic candidate was from the Southern State of georgia, but this is an area in which gradually over the years there has been an erosion, particularly in the more industrialized, larger states of the south and around the border states of the south. Again, we see something on the map that looks like the solid , democratic south. The other elements of the old new deal and Roosevelt Coalition would be minority groups. They were certainly an overwhelming vote for carter and the democrats on the part of black americans, on the part of spanishspeaking americans, those from puerto rico and so forth. Combined with that, you had strong support from labor unions. This was particularly important this year in a close election, and election in which there was not great enthusiasm for either candidate in the degree that the labor unions were able to mobilize forces for get out the vote drives in Major Industrial states. You have at least these three elements uniting. You have bigcity machines that have been strongly in the roosevelt column. City machines are certainly less strong now than they were 40 years ago. But in philadelphia, for example, the democratic governor was able to mobilize a goodsized effort for mr. Carter and he was able to win that very important state with 27 electoral votes. The labor unions were able , as you just pointed out, to get out the votes in the big cities and Industrial Areas. Turnout this time was a little lower than it has been in recent years. Around 54 of the total voting age population in the United States, which is considerably greater than the number who are actually eligible to vote, registered and therefore could vote. Figures that are misleading to people who are used to having the total population and registration being virtually identical. Includingrn states, the home of jimmy carter, are the states where the turnout actually went up. In many of the other states it went down somewhat. The pattern is a pattern not terribly different from that of the 1940s. In fact, in the Southern States, it is the First Time Since 1944 that as many as 10 of the old Southern States have gone for the democratic party, and the First Time Since then that consistently the border states it is a reversion to the 1940s but one no one should expect to depend upon the development and economic develop it that will occur over the next years. Whether they will shift out it mi