Robots taking over all jobs . How many of you are actually afraid of that . Can i see a bigger show of hands . So how many of you have heard about it on the news all the time that youre not going to have a job because robots are taking all of you really seriously . And how many of you are of that, that it might actually happen happen . Okay. About three quarters of you maybe kind of sort of a little bit. Well, lets start off by just dispelling the myth. So this is a graph that shows us the Employment Level in the United States from january 1948 to march 2023. And were taking a look at the thousands of persons employed. And when we take a look at the long term picture of the Employment Level in the United States, you can see that the Employment Level the United States has always increasing. Yes, its true. Our has been increasing as well. But so have jobs and so has the Employment Level in the United States. These shaded represent recessions and as you are aware during recessions though we do see an increase in the unemployment rate. So its important for us to stay focused and whats going on in the long run as opposed to whats going on during these short term disruptions in our economy. So hopefully this helps you feel a little bit about that. But you know, the fact that we have seen an increase in Employment Levels over time and do expect to continue to see an increase in these Employment Levels over time as well. When you think about all the changes that we have experienced in our economy from the 1950s to the nineties sixties, this is about when computers were being started to be used by businesses in communications to the 1970s and the 1980s. So heres where people started relying on personal computers 1990s, 2000s, or we start relying on the complex mobile phones that we have. And yet you continue to see the number of people employed in our country increase. So we should not think about computers and robots as substitutes for human skills. Rather, we should think about them as complements to human skills. And this graph does show us what has happened to the percent of in the Manufacturing Sector. As you can tell over here we have seen a decrease in jobs in the manufacturing. Well we take a look at the percent who are employed in the sector between january 70 to january 2012. You notice how about a quarter or slightly more than a quarter of our labor force was employed in the manufacture sector in early 1970s and we see a steep significant decrease of in the manufacturing to about 10 or so by the end of this period in 2012. So total employment has increased. There has been a shift in the types of jobs that people working in our economy today, as you can tell right here, the Manufacturing Sector has been shrinking and this is where a lot of those middle class jobs are, when you think about this, these jobs many of these jobs are in the midwest. Midwest, like michigan, perhaps. And you know, in the midwest, we have seen a decrease in employment within the Manufacturing Sector, but we have seen increases in employment in other sectors. So in the next graph, im going to show you what has happened to employment in selected sectors. So got this graph from the st louis federal reserves website or its pretty easy to go out and graph out a lot of the data from the bureau of labor statistics, for example and i put some specific sectors in our economy such as construction leisure and hospitality, retail trade, professional and business services, financial activities, private education, Health Services, transportation, warehousing and manufacturing, and in this graph, i went back all the way to 1940 to today, the latest data that i could find. In march 2023. So top line over here shows is all employees in the Manufacturing Sector. So what was going on in the Manufacturing Sector was until up to about the mid 1940s or so. We saw an increase in employment in the Manufacturing Sector after which it stayed pretty much stable pretty much steady. And then we have started to see a drop or a decrease in the more recent decades. But were seeing jobs in other sectors opening up. For example, this right this line right over here, you see a steady growth. Growth, you see a steady growth and jobs jobs with sectors this this. Is private, private education and Health Services and theres a few others as well. So because im interested in the shift that has been happening more recently, i decided to just go break this graph just so we could take a closer look at whats happening more recently and start this graph. From january 1970 and it where we were ending in the previous graph in march of 2023. So you know, you can continue to see the trend of a decrease in employment in the manufacturing. We do see a deep decrease during recessions the shaded areas in this graph are recessions such as the 2020 covid recession. But these are short term decreases and eventually you know, we go back up to r all levels. So when you look at these graphs, i want you to focus on whats been on in the long run, whats been going on over a ten year period, 20 year period, over a decades or even over a century. And as billy mentioned over there the private education and Health Service sector has been growing, what are some of the sectors that have been growing . Yes, the professional services, professional and business services. Instead, the second line on their professional and business services. Yes, i think so. Yes. So this has been growing and which one is this over here . Because it seems like its been growing as well. Right. How has it been growing . Oh, well, maybe not. Yeah, i think thats been a long term trend of growth. And this one. So which one is this one . Yes, its leisure and hospitality. Leisure and hospitality. But its really interesting to take a look at what happened during the recession, during the covid disruption, when a lot of businesses were shut down. We saw a really deep drop in the leisure and hospitality industry. But in the long term we are seeing a long term increase and that as well. And then theres some level here that i just pretty much steady right and you maybe theyve been growing by a little bit but its pretty much just you know, pretty steady. So what are these sectors here. Yeah, its like construction, transportation and warehousing and activities, construction and transportation and warehousing. Finance, all activities. So, no, they seem steady. So its important for us to understand that while some sectors, as the Manufacturing Sector has been shrinking, it has been decreasing. That does not mean that other sectors, theyre going to be Jobs Available in other sectors. You do see this shift thats taking place in our economy with the types of jobs that are available in our economy. So whats really going on in our economy over time over the last few decades has been structural changes in the labor markets. These early structural long term changes in our labor market there has been different types of jobs that are being created. Were seeing growth in certain industries, but were also seeing other industries and these rapidly changing labor markets are due to two things technological progress. And heres where you youre all concerned about computers taking over jobs. But i want you to think about the types of jobs in the Manufacturing Sector. What are the types of jobs in that sector that so easy for us to to to for example, to have a computer take over or to program a computer to do. Yes, Like Assembly or organizational tasks, Like Assembly, organizational tasks. Why do we think those kinds of jobs are easier for us to get to do . Yes, theyre very routine. So you get a computer to like. Do that pretty easily. Perfect their routine. So, you know, jobs that are really routine, you can really easily Program Computers do all right. To give them rules. Do this then do that. Then you do that and you do that. And its very easy for a computer to take over. Now its these types of jobs that can also be outsourced to cheaper wage countries, because these are types of jobs that we can specific rules to worker in these countries and they can just those rules very routine rules that theyre going to be following and and complete the tasks. So given that these jobs are disappear in our economy, the job is in the past in our economy are going to be very different from types of jobs in the future. And since these jobs are going to be we are going to require a different a different set of skills from humans in todays labor market as well as in future labor markets. Were seeing some labor market polarized zation where the types of jobs that we find cannot be substitute suited by technology or computers or cannot be outsourced are either the very low skilled jobs or the very high skilled jobs. And many of these middle skill jobs been automated or theyve been sent abroad. And we expect this pattern to continue in the future. What we need today is we need skills that complement technology or skills that computers cannot substitute for. So lets think about what computers can do and what computers cannot do. How many of you tried out that Robot Cleaner . Oh yeah. What do you think about it . I think convenient. Like the kind that goes around and does its thing. Like you kind of like its very hands off, which i think is good if youre, like, busy. Yeah, its really convenient. Its really fast. It really helpful. Were busy. We dont have to worry about it. So thats why i love it. I bought one last year. I was like, oh, i a busy person. Im just going to have no time vacuum my house. Im just going to turn on the robot vacuum cleaner and it swallowed up my phone charger, swallowed it up. It didnt even stop. Kept going and going, going till the end. Now lets think about how human would have been different once you see phone charger and sometimes you do accidentally vacuum by the phone charger. But once you see that something is happening with it and the vacuum cleaner is swallowing up your phone charger, you stop. You pull out the wire right and youre pretty much you. Youre going to try to find a solution to a situation is unfamiliar to you and that youve never that youve never been in before. Thats something that robots cannot do because know robots are being programed based on information thats available so lets think about you know computers and robots can do and what they cannot do. So computers, as you mentioned speed and accuracy. And i make mistakes sometimes when im tired. I mean, sometimes its sitting around a cat i figure out what two times two is because im tired. But, you know, the computer can be going on all and you know, its pretty accurate. Its going to continue to be accurate. But heres the weakness of the computer. It can only process. They are given and they make inferences based on commands. So there needs to be some kind information thats been given to them and then based on that information, its going to follow specific command or a specific rule on what to do next. So the computer executes rules. Computers are programed with series of rules that specify an action for each contingency. You have to tell a computer what to do, and there needs to be Information Available for the computer to be able to execute rules. Humans, on the other hand, we process information cognitive poorly. Then we decide what to do next. So our brains are capable of analyzing new and unfamiliar situations in a way that computers cant, our brains are very flexible and or able to adapt to new situations. We can also draw upon our past experiences and then use past information and that information based the situation were currently facing and come up with what might be the best solution for it. So lot of the information that we are going to talking about in the next few slides come from a paper titled with robots humans skills computerized work by levy and rain in their work, they discuss how the types of jobs and the types of skills that required in economy has changed over time. Lets go back to discussing computers what computers can and cannot do. Computers can substitute for human in performing a particular task. Two conditions are satisfied. The first condition is information condition. The computer to have some preexisting information, a computer needs to have the information necessary to carry out a task. The second condition is the processing. That information has to be processed in. A specific set of rules for the computer to be able to execute it. The information or rules could be deductive or the ones are the ones that were all familiar with because this is just rules based logic or its a logical step by step instruction. Thats programed into a computer. This is pretty easy to computerize and, to outsource a good. Can you think about any examples where were just programing the computer step by step to follow a specific set of rules. Yeah i like the way you program like thermostats a house movie so i guess i was you want to keep like just the temperature above below a certain threshold its oh yeah so computer its all the computer i want it at 70 degrees so on my home at 70 degrees so if the temperature in the house is above 70 degrees, thats a very good example. Thank you. If the temperature in the house is about degrees, then then the ac turns. If its below 70 degrees, the ac does not turn. So now thats where were giving the computer computers specific rule by rule, step by, step procedure to follow. But rules could also be inductive. Inductive rules would be Something Like pattern recognition, where the information process cant be articulated. A series of logical steps with petrushka mission, we could use statistical modeling to look for patterns in, data and based on these patterns, data from the past, we could then try to fosee and we could then try to predict a solution for something that has not happened before. Right. When you think about a. I. And all that and, you know, writing the essays and so on, the teachers are concerned about with, you know, plugging in a write an essay. The economics of education. I actually tried that out. I got a bunch of junk. Try it out one day. But what the computer does is it goes out, you know, and it takes out information that is already in the internet on the on the specific topic. And then it processes information and it spits out something based on what it thinks we want. Its not always correct. You know, thats a little bit harder to program, but thats something that where theyre using their theyre trying to use information from the past, processing that information, and trying to come up with something brand new or what i like to call maybe new output perhaps. But what tried it out. I found that it was not able to process those words into deeper meaning. Doesnt have that ability to be able to get to that point yet. So thats something that computers are unable to do and inductive rules are a little bit harder for us to program computer to do some of it. We have figured out how to do but theres still you you know a lot of it the computers at least at this point or in the near future might not be able to do so. Here are some uniquely human brain strengths, flexibility. We have the ability to process and to integrate many kinds of information to perform a complex task. We can solve problems for which theres no standard operating procedures. We can work with new information. We can sense of it. So if you already do the same thing and i asked you to write an essay on the economy of education, your output will be very of course, you will go online. You could take a look at the internet and youre using it as a complement to your learning and then you will process all information in a deeper you would make sense of it and youll communicate it effectively in a way that answers the prompt that i wanted. And dont forget, we have common sense. We know when to stop with when you know, with when your vacuum cleaner is swallowing up the structure. So, you know, these are some things that that computer do noe yet. And this is a table that i did also borrow from the work by a morning and theyre talk about the varieties of computer information process it theres rules based logic as we mentioned before those deductive rules and with deductive rules its pretty easy to program computer to do such as calculating basic income taxes turbotax anybody use turbotax. Yeah its very just plug in the information step your w2 whats your income step to your step three did you have any savings . Its a rule by rule thing. You savings . Yes. Enter in the information. No move on to the next step. So that will be an example of rules based logic or issuing a boarding pass. In the past, you would have to go up to the Airline Attendant lineup, give your passport or your id to the attendant and the attendant would plug things into the computer and issue a boarding pass. Today, you could just get your credit card, stick it at one of those computers and the computer, your name to their system and issue a boarding pass if the computers to match your name to the system, then youll get a message that says, go see the attendant. So these are the types of jobs that are very easy for us to program those with these step by step to deductive rules. And these are the types jobs that are easily replaced by and will continue to be replaced computers. And then as we move here, increasingly difficult program will be pattern recognition. We cant it is possible for us to Program Computers up to a certain point with these inductor rules such as speech recognition on siri. Everybody has a slightly different accent and you know, lets say that were asking. So your question series programed we can program to recognize these words that are pronounced slightly differently across different people but it is it is not easy as the deductive rules that we are programing to computers predicting a Mortgage Rate with predicting a mortgage default rate. If a bank would like to predict whether a customer default on the mortgage, what they would do is will get information about the customer such as, you know, maybe the custome