December 2020 CFNAI Super Index Moving Average Index Shows Little Change The economy's rate of growth marginally improved based on the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) 3 month moving (3MA) average - but the economy remains below the historical trend rate of growth. Analyst Opinion of the CFNAI This Month This index is likely the best coincident indicator of the U.S. economy. A coincident indicator shows the current state of the economy. This month, three out of the four broad categories of indicators improved. The economy has slowed from its rate of growth in 2018 but now has moved above territory associated with recessions [a level below -0.7 indicates a recession is likely underway].