O n a very warm welcome indeed to quadriga coming to you from the heart and what a week it has been in german politics with the country plunged into an unprecedented period of uncertainty and upheaval this after the dramatic breakdown of talks to form a new Coalition Government that in turn dealt what seemed to be a major blow to Angela Merkels hopes of pressing ahead with a fourth term in office fresh elections now looks to be the likeliest option and that means it could be months before europes leading nation has a functioning government so our question on this edition of course is medical under pressure how stable is germany and to discuss that question im joined in the studio by three astute observers of german politics beginning with matthew condit snake who is politicos chief europe correspondent he says germany will remain stable with or without a macro what this crisis shows is how mature germanys democracy has. Come also with us is judy dempsey senior fellow at Carnegie Europe and editor in chief of the strategic europe blog judy believes that germany is europes newest problem the collapse of Coalition Talks in berlin will have serious repercussions for the rest of the u. And the woman of concern for hundreds of right opinion editor with spiegel newspaper and the contributing writer for the New York Times now anna says that germany is not turning into weimar thats not just as well but there is she cautions and you distain for compromise in this country is deeply worrying and its not a. Duty to thank you all for being with us here with me here today in the court quadriga studio and let me begin with you have just referred to the New York Times the New York Times as spoken of germanys crisis it is to an extent your newspaper how do you assess the gravity of the crisis well i think to speak in american terms there are still enough adults in germany to manage this crisis and i think somebody is going to come around eventually so i dont think it goes very deep but what i am worried about is the political culture and the political culture and the disdain for compromise that we see still fit with the political system that is based on compromise so in the midst term i am pretty much worried that i think were going to solve this crisis that judy its very interesting if a short termism has come to categorize a german politics country even though tense america has been a part of it is that we are going to preserve thats right but you saw even even during the start of the Coalition Talks everybody was trying to get in front of the cameras and we can do this we can give that but i think and as i think the idea of the of of it a culture of consensus and compromise is giving a way to perhaps political opportunism. Matthew well i actually disagree that thats a bad thing i think it is happening but i think it could be it could be a good thing for germany because there are a lot of people over the past eight years over the past twelve years even said that you know these big parties in germany theyve become much too similar to one another its very difficult for voters to distinguish between the s. P. D. The social democrats and Miracles Party the christian democrats and so forth and what we saw over the weekend with the collapse of these talks is that theres a party out there that looked at this potential coalition and came to the conclusion that they couldnt in good conscience continue on with that if you take christian winter the leader of the free democrats at his word and i have no reason not to so i think this kind of soul searching now about the future of germanys consensus driven model might be a little bit overdone it this stage. Maybe sort of. Now i have to think of the box because if you live here you get used to this consensus you get just this feeling of a certain muddling through actually because over the last couple of years leaving aside the Foreign Policy the domestic agenda is minimal there is very little happening and theres a kind of fatigue and also i think an intellectual to take on the voters they were wondering well what is governing about what walk and the various Political Parties offer us maybe this explains some of the support for the far right wing alternative the third germany im surprised how sanguine you all are about the Current Situation the crisis what crisis you to be saying i mean i dont i wrote down a list of words that are being used by your fellow journalists to describe the crisis gridlock deadlock meltdown or political limbo matthew from your current quote at the beginning of the show you seem to be suggesting that its an opportunity for germany to move on to a higher level of mature democracy a little thing less yeah i mean there is political limbo but this also means that germany is becoming a normal country i mean if you look around europe at the sort of length of time it takes many countries to form a government you dont need to go to the lengths of. Belgium which i think to over over a year the last time but you know its not out of the ordinary to have a minority government if you look at denmark they have a long tradition of that there this is a normal democratic process and just because germany has been dominated by these two big parties since World War Two doesnt mean that democracy is falling apart you now have more voices in the mix youve got the far right in the mix and people can think about that what they will but you also have the liberals coming back into the bundestag its going to be a livelier discussion and i think weve seen that in the first sessions of the buddhist talk over the past several weeks its more interesting to be honest its real debate people are making you know their points and you can tell the difference between say a call on the one hand and somebody. Saying i love. I with you that it was boring for you because weve had two parties that seem to get along pretty well also personality wise and they had a contract and they sort of very in a very german way they went about it and sort of. The bullet point live but then when you look at why he blew off those Coalition Talks its not i mean the most contested issue in this Coalition Talks was the refugee policy and apparently the greens really came around and gave the f. T. P. And the Christian Social Union very much so i dont think he really made it about issues it was about strategy and thats what its depressing about it that he would not take on the rest of the responsibility to form a government in hard times just so the f. T. P. Gets a couple of Percentage Points plus in the next elections or maybe in four years before we continue lets just go back a little bit in time because this all began this chain of events began with the collapse of those Coalition Talks that weve mentioned perhaps just perhaps they would do from the very start it was certainly never going to be easy to square the circle and bring together four parties with very different political cultures lets have a quick look at how the talks evolved. The German Parliamentary Association behind the reichstag in berlin for weeks the eyes of germany had been focused on its balcony and reading lips and thoughts has become a kind of national sport. From the initial talks and got the impression there is a willingness to find common ground. If in. At some point everyone had to get down to business starting their own senseless deadlines is not a compromise. My contract is this mission that these gentlemen have no real desire to negotiate constructively and successfully if not i should say so. The frustration grew as did the weariness. If i just fall over from exhaustion theres no point in continuing. Is the idea of a three way call it gone with the wind. Youre shaking your head well i want. My initial comment was how germanys proceed from outside and i think whats happening in germany is extremely bad for the European Union because the leader has been waiting for im going to record to deliver has been the president of france and hes given two major speeches about europe and those speeches about europe have been absolutely linked to the german the fact that im one of those speeches came two days after the storm an election thats not on speech it was a very disciplined speech was very important because. Something that the big siemens deal with china a big frankly german trade deal joint venture deal but he was saying. We need the german relationship we need to be much tighter and he said come over colvin give me your thoughts about your opinion got your government together. Im going to reckon hes never given a serious speech about europe and back home was beijing and now you have to wait a bit more his his options are limited if you think about those options and then theres his options are limited for his big and this is planned for europe. Well i mean i think its true that there is some disappointment on the french side and certainly in brussels and around europe to a degree although i would also say that the expectations of what america would have been able to have done with this three Way Coalition with the liberals and the greens might have been a little bit high elsewhere in europe because parts of merkels own party were never going to agree and are never going to agree to the kind of broad integration plans that mccrone has outlined not to mention the free democrats who are totally against many of if not all of what he has laid out when we interviewed lintner recently he compared the macro plan to soviet style economics so i mean there there is. Well it might be it might might seem a little bit over the over the top but it doesnt it doesnt show really a deep willingness to compromise with france on these issues i do think that they would have to reach some sort of compromise somewhere and i still think that will that will happen and it is certainly true that the europeans are very worried about this not just because of my call but just to keep sort of the daily business of the e. U. Running without germany there without a government in germany that has real digital busy its going to be very difficult on all kinds of fronts from defense to the euro to the expansion of the e. U. And so forth just to keep things running so i think that is a real issue and maybe that will give president steinmeyer in his discussions with s. P. D. Leader martin short some leverage in playing this european card and saying this isnt just about germany its about europe and taking responsibility for for for the e. U. Here. Just like to go back just to mention christian a couple of times and matthew. Youve indicated that you believe that always of his motives were honorable and pulling the plug on the Coalition Talks we have no reason to believe otherwise there are many of those however who asked the question is Christiane Limbaugh who has suddenly become a sort of a relatively central figure in german politics is he charismatic or is he a rabble rouser is here is he a modernizer or is he. Another wild fringe populist. I dont think hes a fringe populist but hes certainly an opportunist and i think what what you have to see is that when i took his career and his very young age and all this energy to rebuilding a party from scratch that was kicked out of the bonus talk in two thousand and thirteen and was basically at the point of vanishing i mean to the delta and thats what i really give him credit for is that he took up the task and he went for it and he did it and excellent job on that and it was a Great Campaign and he got the party back into the bundestag and i can completely understand that he does hes afraid of his. To crumble again so thats what i what i get i give him credit for but yet now hes at the point where hes in the center of whats happening and whats important to the world and so he now has to take on a different perspective and he can stay in to sort of the Party Perspective onto what is happening in germany right now thats it and also he really i think hes sincere about this the f. T. P. Was a terrible Junior Coalition partner in angloamerican Second Coalition it didnt deliver on anything and it became a party of zopyrus and of especially bush for interest and i think at the back of in his mind is i dont want to say the voters again and actually germany is desperately to change. Absolutely i think we need to move on a little bit now and just have a look at the when we talk about change the big question is what happens next and there are really three options for how this crisis might evolve lets have a look at those free options. First scenario medical forms a minority government together with the greens or the free democrats postwar germany has never had a minority government the downside a minority government would have to build majorities case by case second scenario the grand coalition. But the social democrats chairman says no he prefers the third scenario new elections the downside a long period of uncertainty with no real prospect of the vote turning out any differently which scenario is the most likely. And lets begin with the scenario of a minority government how promising is that for germanys future for europes future were going to what youre both. I think that europes future not the best option but for a germany it will be an experiment worth trying maybe though im not really in favor it because i think the ability is more important right now but what matthew said about germany sort of. Falling asleep over the grand coalition it would be really interesting to see a government that really has to work on issues that has to find new majorities on each of the issues it wants to realize so that would really energize the political debate and maybe. Also be a good thing with regard to the fringe parties that weve seen springing up maybe also in part for this sort of or done with politics. However matthew there are those i was reading an academic the other day from Kiel University saying that german stone dont favor minority government because he reminds them too much of weimar but also it doesnt promise stability well i doubt most germans living can actually remember weimar at this stage it doesnt have to be as stable as weimar was and if it only lasts for a couple of years that might not be a bad thing especially for a party like the s. P. D. Which would have time to regroup to rebuild itself its in complete disarray right now and its prospects if there were a new election are or are pretty dim to be honest so i think that given the options out there for the s. P. D. In particular which has three bad options going back into a grand coalition a minority government or new elections they might decide a minority government with the social democrats would be a minority. If the social democrats got into bed with the with the conservatives until americans considered youve got a grand coalition the numbers add up. Right and they have made clear that they dont want to do that again this was the government weve had over the past four years and still havent and a caretaker basis and for various reasons they feel that they were voted out the last time they only got twenty percent they lost a huge portion of their voters and so they dont think that they have the legitimacy to enter another government and there is something to that and another important point there though is that their membership really is against a lot of rank and file people in the s. P. D. Do not want to go into a coalition again although i think many of their m. P. s would welcome the opportunity and many of their form for former ministers and current ministers would like the opportunity to serve again but now i think a grand coalition so debilitating for germany we have to remember i think the figure is im just doing the math in my head but i think the grand coalition the parties that made up the grand coalition that lost out at this last election as you were mentioning they lost fourteen percent together that. You know its very high but really the social democrats would be moved the same could be no debate no discussion about migration you dont think i could sort of military could deep breath and we havent and the social democrats would be decimated in the next election if they were visible enough this past election could be completely destroyed in the next election and so just of testing new elections. One doesnt know the outcome i reckon by going to new elections damaged goods in some ways i think corruption is a minority government give it a try just politics a selffulfilling prophecy its also its going to just going to disappear. Give it a try and might be very very interesting so your vote is for the minority government what or what or what about fresh elections on a would do so to that prospect i dont think it would change that much i mean if we look at the service right now if it of course is going to be some movement and the liberals seem to profit from their step but i think it would still pretty much be around same figures that weve seen in the last election and for a. Coalition of the liberals and the christian democrats to be realizable they would have to gain some six or seven Percentage Points and i dont see that right now so wed have pretty much the same situation with two possibilities the grand coalition or another john mica coalition and then i think it will be much more likely that we see another grand coalition because there has been so categorical about what he did and this is what he stands for and i dont think hes going to come up with the first the key player of the moment in all of this is weve mentioned him already is germanys federal president for former foreign minister very familiar face many people hes been hes hes had everybody round to his residence here in berlin both of you polis hes given them a smack on the legs and send them back out there and so negotiate make it work you know so that could still happen possibly jamaica i cant i cant. If you look at the gray dawn it was quite radical for parties agreed on i mean the tone and the Coalition Talks was actually the Christian Social Union