Transcripts For DW Conflict Zone - Guest Michael OFlaherty 2

DW Conflict Zone - Guest Michael OFlaherty February 18, 2018

Is moving in and we have fought both types of militant islam. Israel contributed mightily to. The battle against the battle against isis by giving unmatched militant military intelligence that has prevented dozens of terrorist attacks in dozens of countries and we are absolutely determined to prevent iran from creating a new base in the west i call it isis west obviously egypt is fighting it as well to prevent isis from shifting its base from. Iraq and syria into the sinai or into somalia and to africa and other places this is one battle that we are fighting successfully the unfortunate thing is that as iran as isis compresses and iran moves in its trying to establish this continuous amp are surrounding the middle east from the south. In yemen but also trying to create a land bridge iran iraq syria lebanon gaza this is obviously a very Dangerous Development for our region it is creating this new realignment of israel and arab states precisely because we all recognize they recognize that israel is no longer their enemy but their indispensable ally in fighting these twin forms of militant islam that threaten them as much as they threaten us specifically what iran is doing now is this and this is recently this is just in the aftermath of the. Defeat of isis the territorial defeat of isis in syria and iraq iran is trying to colonize syria. It is trying to move military bases into syria to move its army fifteen hundred kilometers from iran to israels backyard it wants to establish a naval bases in the mediterranean can you imagine a rain in submarines next to the six or off the coast of life and wants to establish Shiite Militia bases. Bring roughly one hundred thousand fighters into syria and it wants to establish air bases and bring the aircraft Fighter Aircraft helicopters and the like right to our vicinity with the express goal of attacking us so we want is changing the ground rules in syria ive said we will not allow them to do that and ive backed our words with actions so far that has not progressed and mr us understands that if he invites iran in. Then obviously he is. Challenging us. To a different position than the one weve had during the. Five to six years of the internal conflict in syria we have not involved ourselves at all in that conflict except for helping with humanitarian aid wounded civilians wounded Children Women weve helped thousands of them in israeli hospitals but weve not entered into any conflict there except preventing rainy and transport of dangerous weapons to hezbollah through syrian territory if mr us invites iran in militarily that changes our position so thats up to iran and to mr also then the second thing that iran is trying to do is to change the ground rules inside lebanon what it wants to do there is to. Add to lebanons to cause problems armory in addition to one hundred thirty thousand statistical rockets to precision guided munitions which change the. Balance of power by having a Game Changing weapons that could hit any spot in israel with an accuracy of ten meters thats very very dangerous for a small country like israel so were committed to prevent the two in other words what is changing is the wrong status quo iran is trying to change and start a school both in lebanon and. Syria if they dont change or start a school then i think peace will be preserved or at least nonbelligerent will be preserved if they do change the school well we have i follow or rules by the early zionists who saw the problem of anti semitism brewing in europe and thats why they wanted to establish which was they said nip bad things in the bud stop them before they get big thats basically what our policy its up to the wrong. Prime minister we have time for maybe two more questions the next one is actually a direct follow on to what you have just said. Read the question what is the view of the Israeli Government on the future of the chain c. P. I. A those of you who are not familiar with. Technical talk this is the socalled Iranian Nuclear deal and most specifically why would the security of israel be more secure without the j c p o e than with the j c p a way question mark. I dont particularly care about the agreement. Keeping it or mixing it. That is fixing it or an accident i want goal in mind to prevent iran from having Nuclear Weapons such a radical regime would be unrecognizable in its aggression once it has atomic bombs and the means to deliver them so you have to fix it whether you can do it within the context of the deal fine if you cant you should scrap it but heres whats wrong with what iran is doing first i mean to have Nuclear Weapons you need three things you need a gun you need a bullet and you need gun powder the gun are the Ballistic Missiles theyre developing them outside the deal in contravention of u. N. Security Council Resolutions they should be stop they should be slammed with the toughest crippling sanctions to prevent them from continuing the development of these weapons of these guns these Delivery Systems the second thing is a weapon. The casing of the bullet if you will. They may very well be hiding that i dont think its covered affectively because theyre known specs and there are inspections in the deal but you cannot inspect effectively military sites and what do you think iran is going to hide and i think theyre doing in this realm or any other realm you dont go into military side so you can expect them to put things in military sites. The way to get around it is that the i. A. E. A. Has not asked to go into military sites but if you dont go there and inspect them you know where its got at whats going to happen there so i think you have to change inspection regime the third thing is the most important one it is this. Within less than a decade iran effectively gets on the highway of producing. Massive enrichment of uranium thats the gunpowder thats the toughest thing to make a Nuclear Weapon it is the most difficult thing to manufacture it requires big plants it requires a lot of Precision Engineering its hard to do iran has been given. After the calendar passes free reign to affectively enriched uranium without limitation and to do research that prove that allows them to have what they say theyll have two hundred thousand centrifuges some of them forty times more advanced than the current generation of centrifuges this was allow them to produce a lot of fissile cores necessary for the production of that bullet that nuclear bullet and so the combination of Ballistic Missiles. Lack of inspections and free and richmond down the line i think is very dangerous i think rather than just have irans ability to rescind the limitations on its Nuclear Agreement happened by changing the calendar it should happen by a change in iran behavior this is the main thing i dont think you should have an automatic sunset clause in this deal i think it should be linked to a change in irans behavior a ceasing of its aggression that is going through the window in the region. Can that be done. By iranian can said i doubt it but i for one do not think that if these. Conditions are put forward that iran will break away to the bomb i dont think thats going to happen i think that would be very foolish on their part to do so because they have now enough. They have only enough enrich material for one device. If they wait ten years which is the whole problem with the deal theyll have enough material for one hundred devices or two hundred four whole arsenal of Nuclear Weapons i could just break into in a very short time i think theyll be very careful if i have to guess what theyll do if the deal is not reapproved in washington i think theyll do nothing and countries of course will have to choose what they do should this be the case irans economy is not big its a little bigger than this really economy eighty Million People we have a little more than eight but our economy is almost the same size so i guess people will have to choose whether they want to go with the iranian economy or with the. Larger economy called the American Economy i think this is i think its time to stop them theyre aggressive theyre developing Ballistic Missiles theyre not inspecting and theyre going to have a free highway to massive enrichment this has to be changed if you do it within the agreement fine if you do it if you cant do it without the agreement scrap it but its better to stop it now i thank you Prime Minister i wish we had more time because if we did i would invite john kerry as one of the architects of this deal to join as i said but we did we are running out of time i have a third question which id like to read to you is there its a very simple question to john and i never had the opportunity to talk about a. Third question is and im afraid is the last one is there a future for the two state solution or not a question like. Heres my position i think the palestinians should have all the powers to govern themselves except the powers to threaten us so it means that theyll have control over their lives but we will have control over security and any peace or agreement. Should there be one now the american governments american governments have steadily tried to facilitate such an agreement you mentioned john kerry he did this president clinton did this president obama and john kerry did this before president clinton did that before you remember of course the carter administrations role in camp david first of all i think no one can facilitated other than the United States. I think we should dispose dispose of any possibility there and always people will say but the u. S. Is tilting this way or tilting that way and one can make that argument i never did i never chose not to engage with are American Partners for that kind of excuse i think you have to. Actually deliver it in a serious way and see if there are proposals that are put forward by the United States government that could help begin launching negotiations. The company ministrations been working on their plan for the last year i dont know if theyre going to put it forward in the next weeks or months they havent said that they will but they havent said that the they wont they say theyre working on it and theyre committed to putting it forward i think the very least we should do is give it a shot lets look at it lets not throw it out the window before we even saw and i think this is the unfortunate and. I think and disappointing position of president abbas i think we should give it a chance see if we can enter into discussions based on this because i think that we owe our people this effort i myself have dealt with this over the years very seriously very conscientiously with great detail and sometimes of considerable ingenuity but i think we owe it to our people to give this a chance the other thing that i would say is that the fact that we have this newfound relationship with the arab countries something that mr chairman i would not have imagined in my lifetime its. This is not what they call a spin this is real its deep its brought. It doesnt necessarily cross the threshold of a formal peace and i doubt that would happen until we get some formal progress with the palestinians so the two are linked but i think that the opportunity to bootstrap an agreement having progress with the arab countries in certain areas having progress with the palestinians in certain areas and just keep doing this i think this is more promising because of the arab component because of the strategic realignment that is taking place due to the causes that ive just described here there is Something Different happening and i think we should we should give this a chance so the response to your question is i dont categorize the agreement some will say its less than a state it is a state because i want security to be continuously held in israels hands and ill tell you why the middle east is littered with failed states and you see that everywhere that you have. The main Security Authority removed what you have is the flow of militant islam either isis or iran or amounts to saying we dont want that we did this we went out of gaza we got iran through hamas we want out of lebanon we got iran through his bottle so we certainly are not going to do that. A third time but it is possible to have this peace which allows israel to maintain security and allows the palestinians to govern themselves and i think that we should let the americans put forward their proposal if they dont lets talk about other paths preferably direct ones but i think we should give this a chance. Let me just briefly address the audience we have run into considerable overtime here the coffee break will start after the conclusion of this and then please be back in fifteen minutes at Eleven Oclock because we will need to have a larger panel and we have than two other speeches speakers including the Iranian Foreign minister so weve just been listening to a question and answer session. With the israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu whos been addressing Munich Security Conference so lets get some instant reaction to his words from our chief Political Editor michaela couth now standing by for us in munich. A forceful speech a hardline speech from mr netanyahu give us an idea how its going down in munich. All this today was a scathing condemnation of the Iran Nuclear Deal we had john kerry the former u. S. Secretary of state sitting in the audience that is one of his biggest diplomatic it sequence as he sees it himself forging that particular deal is not news to him that have been innocent you know is against this but basically he spent most of his speech warning of iran as a rising force in the region with israel very concerned of iran seeking a new power base in syria after that drone was shot down last week which the israelis didnt say was bringing the rain to night that it is one of the drones of the actually quite impressive the actually produced a piece of that shot down drone addressing irans foreign minister zarif who was not in the room as you to speak it later. Basically asking him to do you break do you recognize this you can take this home so that much for so affect everybody but what we just heard now was i would say almost a hot faucet pledged to the concert. Of the two state solution that netanyahu has been increasingly ambiguous about in the past with pledges to that concept here quoting him as saying we should give it a shot but also with the clear condition that israel would maintain Security Control over any palestinian state and him stating as a reason that basically the middle east is littered with failed states now this particular condemnation of the iran Nuclear Agreement which is seen in europe as also a landmark agreement pointing towards the potential of resolving other conflicts just to mention the Korean Peninsula concerns with north korea which we are watching very closely what happens to this deal well this basically sends a shiver down the spine of european diplomats also democrats in the u. S. And the big question is how long the United States will maintain this deal. Basically of elimination yow he is saying if security guarantees are possible within that deal thats fine lets keep it going but he has very big question marks and he would like to see it ended rather sooner than later for two very different perspectives just bearing in mind that the grand nuclear deal was it really has a as a cornerstone the socalled sunset clause that gives the world at least a couple of months time if there are warnings any kinds of alerts coming out of those inspections that iran might be working on a nuclear bomb to then take measures. To see out turn the reasoning really on its head saying well this really means that this is almost like a map towards a nuclear deal although there are this spectrum is in place so clearly. Once again pointing towards this very large gap in understanding of how the conflict how the spread of rons influence in the middle east can be. Result peacefully ok mckayla many thanks for that snap reaction been human. Speech of Munich Security Conference the israeli Prime Minister. Thank you very much. Now our chief Political Editor with me in the studio middle east analyst shaunie rose on his shiny let some go through netanyahu speech what i want to ask you is what in your view were his key messages in what hes just been saying well we need to keep in mind i want to bring in something he country did not mention but he did mention many times saudi arabia hes talking about arab countries about how the relationship has warmed up his you know closer ties he said at the end with a q. And a part that he never imagined in his lifetime he will manage he will leave to see that day he never mentioned saudi arabia by its name hes smart enough to know that weve been too much trouble on saudi arabia on himself but of course this is this is something that he sees as a breakthrough he sees an opportunity to prove that there is a way with the muslim countries if we find the right countries you find the moderate sunni countries in opposed to iran which of course you run saudi arabia thats a very big rivalry we see right there and if that aspect to israel my enemys enemy is my friend when we talk about saudi arabia so thats a key component in understanding the ten yahoos view of the region and the future of the region and how can it be resolved he also ties the palestinian future or the statehood of the palestinians to that he understands of concessions with the palestinians are necessary in order to neutralize or or edge bands in a

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