Transcripts For DW To The Point 20240712

Thanks very much indeed for joining us here on to the point and my guest in the studio are belarus born all of her granddaughter from the Research Center for Eastern European studies at the university of broome and she says active support for the wounded belarus leader would only damage russia the mood in venice because neither pro russian nor pro choice european also with us is in a dorm flute experts on russia and Eastern Europe and a former moscow correspondent she says its almost inconceivable that russia would simply tolerate a democratic turn around. And a woman dont you bellos own vladimir who is from the russian desk he argues that so. Nothing has happened in belarus that putin really needs to react to. An interesting comment will come to that shortly 1st of all the old girl will go through and over dramatic events in your home country are we seeing the final days of Alexander Lukashenko. Where i think we have to make a difference what the people you know these brutus decided that it is protesting and what the president and his elites are seen because i think there is quite a huge difference there so for me to its obvious that the vast majority of people there is do not see the president as the legitimate president anymore i mean its not for the 1st time that the elections were falsified and valorous will know that it has been happening for 20 years already the recourses of these the last days of president lukashenko. These could be the last weeks months whatever but i could still imagine a scenario where when he would come back to the oppressions and a lot will depend on his communication with russia its a very important Factor Analysis so there could be a return to the status quo of 26 years. Not in that sense maybe for him but not for the society of the society has already changed and he will never be that the legitimate anymore and as he used to be quiet for a long time. But we definitely see that the relations between state and society has to have changed and that there is and we also see that you know also on the level of local office or it is and also some cases within the elites people start consider a 1000 if its really of the lads days of him so its a very good question that you ask and i think that everybody in belarus is asking now this question a lot really depends on what those people who are asking this question now will do it tomorrow because it is in the door blew do you say you are worried for the brave people of belarus why the next. I mean i have been last time to been out in 2011 and there i witnessed already how people react how all men and so on react on very small protests i saw in 2011 and i mean we saw the videos and photographs from torture from torture of people in jail in their rules and i dont know if i would be so brave as a bit of those in to go on the streets today and to protest especially given that you are convinced that voting to putin is not going to allow democracy to take hold in belarus what makes you so convinced. This is a threat to his own power because. Putting in hes an author or tarion leader and hes had several times that he would not tolerate a system of regime change provoked by mass protests on the streets because if that would work and there was this what the sign and its already assigned to the opposition and to normal people in russia that they could also that this is possible not only a theory but in practice its a big issue for russian government because russian government see whats happening in the. Street protests next in the role of mass protest in the former soviet republic right georgia ukraine even care just on for years trying to prevent such scenarios in russia so its going to moscow 201120128 was similar happenings on the streets similar must protest with the huge in 2000 from losses in russian government and Security Forces were very professional in their suppressing these protests no im afraid i hope for. The best but im afraid that could be not be the last they saw. Let me put it its going to very long an interesting political biography and there was a time when he. Sort of flirted with democracy do we know so we agree that he now does it no longer does democracy. Put you clear its deliberate on saturday couple of couple of years ago an interview with Financial Times he pronounced liberal democracy that liberal side enemies of the russian state since this street protest in russia 2011th 2012 and it we have a grave of state repression in russia since the time. Why even though given this sort of this cautious or feeling that you have been expressing why have people been willing to go out onto the streets no way in such numbers why have they been willing to take beatings and be in prison. Well there are quite a lot of reasons for that and actually it happened long before the election sell we have to understand that this society ballerinas was politicized at large months before the election so i mean what what what was saw in the last week and also several weeks before with this new you know female trio that were mobilizing people in their regions they just gave a new dimension to the health protest most people willing to politicize and that not as due to the in consequent information policy during the pandemic so people were either not tech by the actions taken by the state that were not techie by the way expressions of the president himself because he made really some victim blaming expressions in terms of people who died from coronavirus or exam for example well of he told people Something Like ah how can you leave if your weight is a 130 kilos or why are walking on the streets if youre already over 70 or 80 years old he was talking about you know that for my actor and beat up ski this person was a real a well known and he never apologized so its really a people were shocked and its one of the factors and now we have also comic actors a new faces in politics and it just coincided all those factors that coincided. I think is just you know best thing for the question that he had all those factors at the year of election so people will broaden not to contend with it state and also there are there and great personally with look at the so that united under the slogan everybody but one which means everybody but the question and thats why they were actually ready to to give their votes with one of the who is not a political you know. Housewife the wife of a famous little blogger that it is a fine for me very highest high protest most people just dont care who they just want to get rid of the president whos in power for 26 years ok everybody but one Alexander Lukashenko the. Strongman is however still in power he only troublesome by helicopter these days were told lets take a quick listen to how he can visit is the situation developing. We need to approve a new constitution so the opposition wont be against it it needs to be approved in a referendum because our previous constitution was approved in a referendum. And based on the new constitution and if you want it we will hold new elections for the Parliament Presidency and local government bodies. Because you know what to say the prospects of fresh elections would the opposition accept the elections if president look im trying to were going to stand again for the presidency. I heard. You told you before maybe you were answer because if you read this news about it was reported today that marina krisna was one of the few girls of the. Joint staff amount of the opposition declared that they are in a position would allow the question could to take part of the new election. Interesting. But i mean what. Was said i guess is only he wants to win time and hes not alluding to the it is all about me its all about momentum here because. Its only about how important a momentum is because the opposition only seems to happen quickly in them it was hugely important or youre completely right that it was then i think of the 1st that youre so very dramatic pictures with great completely different then i mix that 10 years later then they slater because now they have like a kind of a slowing economic and the numbers of people on the streets are decreasing in the European Union to 10 days dorgan has a special summit on about was 10 days and. Yesterday before 5000 people in the streets in the Bennett Place in the pen its very means which is like a very low number compared to the previous administrations and the next one will be. 4 days without street actions interesting as weve already seen that have been protests in the past and very few people would accept that this is not a time for change but some have been absolutely euphoric and thats becoming a little bit more questionable as things as regards momentum change in the way that weve just been hearing. I think this is incredible weve never seen the people of belarus this happy this free delivery since you are incredible we love you. This shows that were all united and that we want to protect our right to vote freely and stage free elections. The protesters are related but they have still not one. Line of tikhonov sky has become their leadership figure her husband who had actually been a candidate was arrested in a statement from exile in lithuania she confirmed. Paired to take on the responsibility and the role of leader of our country. The nation must calm down. We must stay united. So that new elections can be held. And the protests are continuing and many workers in states and threes and that state t. V. Are going on strike how long can look at shingle hold out. The answer to that question will depend on how much the opposition can remain united is the opposition united or is dead a beginning to see period well i have i think we have to be cautious when you say position because its not really you know this classic Party Position and it would think about when we say a position here in the best its really kind of a Grassroots Movement that we are observing now and so i mean it is a former house wife and we have they were presented different from other teams of the most public candidates but this nation can lead to that we are observing now its really not the you know this position that we used to so there are people from you know people from Civil Society. People from also from striking teams from the state on enterprises there are just people well known people you know who have you know again some popularity that. Prized you know do you in your heart of hearts believe that you have a leader that you have a figurehead who couldnt deal do not movement if they still do not have the lead in that has been the problem. Begins to have to be a problem because. It was actually more or less i think their position their position actually. Because they didnt have a leader because people. Learned to sort themselves people learned to be solitary and people sort of denies they sort of organized through social media and so on so it was ok for them to be leader in a distant. That and just you know a symbolic you get technical candidate but now it could be a problem because somebody should you know initiate those negotiations and there should be some few ground who also would be you know seen also by the authorities as a serious she get because its not such a figure for the president by no way because he doesnt just doesnt believe you know in women power in step one so i would say that this could have been this former minister of culture and use that a lot who is now in this committee that if this everything is still at the very beginning and we dont know if youve been maybe already have some contacts within this committee because you just mentioned women and women have played a very prominent part in the process movements in recent weeks are taking to the streets in their thousands of them wearing white and carrying flowers its been a peaceful protest against state violence some 7000 people have been arrested in many places badly beaten theres a lot of talk there are bound to a new generation of women coming to the fore in belarus is even a new generation of women in belarus its difficult to answer because i have not been i couldnt travel but i will say the last years because i was not the visa but this one point actually where we can also talk about the possibilities of European Union because the. The engagement the context between european Civil Societies in the European Union and the levels they were i 10 i said tense of 5 during the last years and i think this also has a kind of a an impact on the also on young women on generations how about womens rights and so on the research that we took for young women i read. Somebody saying that until very recently the word feminist and semitism the the the idea. Hardly use them were very often sort of negative categories that is really giving to charity which we are told well as section is a reg question is actually ive been thinking about that for weeks its a very paradox a tradition that we have now because from the one hand that we have a woman who openly admits that shes actually just a housewife and she is there only to help her husband come out of the prison and at the same time you know to rescue the rest of the written society from a dictator but she openly admits that she wants to come back as long as you know the new elections are there. But from the other hand of course this. Trio that weve seen 3 weeks before elections of course it gave some other discourse to that they were saying politics because you know women were not see there is you know some kind of serious figures and it mentioned it himself for he said that the recent constitution of course was not written for women of more than negative direction came at once on his words and i think it was also one of his biggest mistakes before elections because people and supporters that line and her team actually out of protest and out of solidarity so it was not that much about politics of course they also wanted new elections but i did not think of course that people saw a president in her it was just you know the sign of sort of direct into shock a whatever happens which is just on your side and we do not agree with this for the president but thats one of the point were most concerned because in because you mentioned the role of the e. U. The e. U. Has issued this statement saying we stand side by side with the people of belarus how much comfort will i give to people in both groups or not. I think on the one hand they need. Solidarity to they need moral support on the other hand its very dangerous and we see you know that russian propaganda already is working and doing their job that they want to discredit the protests and the other. Is a movement finance and organized by some western actors as was said by the question go and also you can read today and yesterday on all the different channels from Russian Politicians and from state around russia saying the same thing every socalled colorful revolution in the. In the former soviet republic and in there are up countries as well 3rd basically the same narrative from russia is all the time this is from sponsored by very stern countries or very the United States by the European Countries regime changes on the on the very process not not on the legal way by elections but on the way of street protest so its i mean from russia you know its been said very very often the bird the protesters themselves people like holger im sure have been so have been saying you know this is not about being anti russian improve european absolutely not thats the thats the most important single point people have been wanting to make i think we have to differentiate when we think about them which is a side and European Union. From the one hand people expect from a dairy and this holiday which is already right and there is also you know 5 some funds. To help from the European Union to help those who suffered from oppressions and you know Civil Society supporting these outside interference the energy that it wants and thats why i say differentiation because on the other on the other hand they should be there are cautious not to make this impression that you know they are kind of protein 8 and also within this you public can meet i mean they already offered mediation or they have asked for mediation from the European Union. I think this you know mediation observe ation you have to be a bit of a cautious because it could really cause a very emotional but a reaction from russia talking about mediation with its core donation can lead to i think it would be reasonable to at least try to invite russia so that to show that these protests i really am not on to russian or not. From not opera china whatever that its really a very internal problem of belarus is that i want to new president and then most important thing for russia is that they would not become crane in sense of. And this is also not true its not true doris its not until russian and its better just to let it so be so and not to try you know bring this geopolitics within this society and to just i think i think it would be very difficult and i dont know if it really makes sense for European Union to try to explain to putin that they have no the geopolitical interests even if they dont have any way putin already is has that and other off and Russian Politicians there so they need this this image of they might be expecting that actually from the coordination come it tame maybe they quote stress that once again that theyre really not i think it was well its problematic that they are talking on the unity and i think that Coordination Committee could also have said ok where actually interested in the interest of all our neighbors is important i think this is the message that putin is hoping to hear but is this a wonder is this episode is this chain of events now this is an opportunity to further my putin or a threat. I dont see that as a threat for him its not of exist cyrus in reaction of the sco socalled street protesters to color for evolution because russia is deciding their actions and theyre making distractions perfect for years because the orange revolution in ukraine 2004 was their huge surprise for at russian government state authorities so they are back that after days and now theyre collecting experience with these street protests not only in russia but outside of russia as well so its for them its like collecting know how to deal with these kind of situation for the future if Something Like this would happen in russia which is. Right now probably not rated or not very realistic but theyre collecting experience and know how to deal with this kind of instability inside of a country and suddenly put in has become an expert in disruptive politics how far do you think hes going to go in disrupting the belorussian party here i think that russian government getting support from russia in terms of expertise how to suppress the street protest how to deal with this not only to beat the people and not only to torture people in front of the camera but to do you on the most stop tollway or more. Difficult more brits is very you know. More precise very big get the big old couple of symbolic figures probably or to make the future british in the dozens of people in the jail with. So. Little of information distribution. So i mean this was the glorious in those origins already did the fall of long before elections all the most important heger is all their position candidates or potential candidates because they were never never registered and everybody who had at least some kind of experience in st paul because they were already in jail far before elections so what always seen though is a Grassroots Movement and thats thats make it problematic for the government and just to come back to this russia problem because i do and this tend to that of course for ports and it is you know kind of bad example for russians to show while people who can do it yourself from that at the same time im asking myself what would he get i mean he would do laws. As long as would see that it is intervening i dont own military when its some other and obvious form. Russia those the most Friendly Society in terms of russia because the most friendly. To other nations and as a very important soft power instrument and russias already present their most belarusian speak russian Russian Media are still very popular in belarus Culture Church family connections and so on mentality also big cut and so on so its really you know it will not disappear even as long as president is not there i mean i met this dependence will not. Influence will not disappear also economic dependence from russia is huge so i dont really see the point why would he do that because hes do you can have influence on the. So there are potential president ial candidates very quick. Very important yeah right. And i think its also a chance for him because. The relationship between you know is quite difficult and im not sure if really wants to keep or isnt it better for him to get rid of him because he didnt. Didnt recognize crimea being russian. How do you sleep at night. Youve got family. Ready beginning to feel despairing about the situation i mean ive practiced parent the very 1st night i was just. Have to leave it there im afraid its going to very interesting discussion if youve enjoyed it as much as next week. They were abducted by the nazis and taken to germany to be raised as citizens of the. During world war 2 thousands of polish children suffered this fate. Even today many of them dont know who their real parents were. Stolen children in the Kidnapping Campaign of nazi germany. And 15 minutes long g w i am operating a decision against violence im going to. Go your man off quit his job after the belmar c. N. N. Election was. Like many of his colleagues to correlate the actions taken against demonstrators. But what will this mean for him and his family. Focus on the world. 90 minutes w. Happiness is for everyone schumann penises are very different from primates you know we have a totally ridiculous i mean sided view of nature david and this is quite an exchange for a good sex how creedence improve books you get smarter for free get over your books on. The World Population is increasing the climate is changing its getting warmer and there are going to be more and more places where you cannot grow traditional problems we have to fix the roads from the white to do that is to use the mob and tonight a modification methods to make that across it is a lot safer than anything weve done by traditional dramatic or the pace that it takes one to meet you know exactly what it is and you put it into another plan to come up exactly where its grown i think we will be able to provide enough food for people by 2050 if we can make crops that will grow under 70 arid conditions this will achieve a much greater stability in the food supply that we have at the moment. This is g. W. News a live shot from berlin and the man of fighting for the political opposition in russia is now fighting for his life after suspected poisoning alexina vonnie is in a coma and on a ventilator after falling ill on a flight to moscow to his spokeswoman says that his cup of tea was laced with choice and. My response frances president micron off prisoners on the asylum upon it was a meeting of germanys chancellor merkel who also offered to help the kremlin critic also coming up on the show. In the u. S. Said joe biden