Asked trumps last days in office lame duck, raging bull. Thanks very much indeed for joining us. My guests here in the studio. Our susannah Foreign Correspondent for spiegel magazine, who says trump us, how to devastating impact on americas standing as a reliable Global Leader . The old america no longer exists. Also with us, eric from a freelance journalist who writes for the l. A. Times and says, trumps power is fading by the day, but his failure to ensure a smooth transition to biden has become a real threat to National Security. And a very warm welcome to too early for telling a child to a german iranian political scientist with the Afro Middle East Center in johannesburg. And ali argues that overt millet 3 adventurism against a great interest may prove too costly, even for donald trump. So covert operations likely. Thank you all 3 for being here today. 1st question. Eric Donald Trumps former National Security advisor. John bolton says the big question is how much damage trump can still do before the january the 20th inauguration. And you think he might do quite a bit of damage. The biggest threat to National Security was giving bidens team the secret. The intelligence reports that need to be given to the new president and not cooperating with the new team. Thats as a risk here in this interim period of the incoming president not being up to speed. This is a big obama did for trump. This is something that bush did for obama. Its something its always done in america. Weve never seen a situation like this where the president is not cooperating with the incoming team. Thats hopefully going to be changing. Weve seen some small developments this week and hopefully that will get better. Thats the big problem for National Security. Question about the threat to National Security. Threat of National Security is most likely is most damage to 2 countries where the americans have a leverage and a huge impact. Like, for instance, in afghanistan, like for instance, i heard that he still tries to convince pakistan to to give up their resistance against israel. So he still does whatever he can to leave his heritage biden has to deal with it. Well, i think hes also, i mean, you know, trying to address 2 constituent or 2 circles of friends or supporters. One is the regional allies of trump, israel saudi arabia, most notably, who fear that with the biden presidency there might be another iran policy. And which would, you know, tremendously decrease the pressure on iran. So theyre trying to figure something out to do in this interim period. Another one is appealing to a social constituency in the United States. And when it comes to the troop withdrawal enough on a sun so that this is going to going to go down well with them. So, but at the end of day were going to see which, which of those developments going to materialize or not. I mean, trump has promised his voters. Hes going to bring the soldiers back home. Hes going to end these endless wars. And hes wanted to do more afghanistan all along. He had to fire his last defense minister a week or 2 ago who didnt want to withdraw the troops. And this is something the Trump Supporters want. This is something a lot of American Veterans want. I think 20000000 americans have served in these last words the last 2 decades and theres a strong sentiment. Hate we lost, theres no point. Lets get out of there. Just to make it about the perspective of the people of iran, if you can, can you generalise about, you know, which direction they lean in biden or trump . Well, this is a, you know, that there is a controversy in iran. I think. I mean, of course, i mean, i dont have a doesnt have any kind of fans of supporters among iranians because of its anti democratic credentials. So people are, you know, are not, do not have any illusions that is a kind of democratic president that can rely upon and pin their hopes on. But there is a controversy among iranians. You know, one side says that actually the action of prussia strategy with the economic sanctions on the regime has been quite important because it has been weakening the regime. So this is something that, you know, a lot of iranians who are critical of the regime would welcome. On the other hand, and this week actually they, they fear that biden opt for an appeasement appeasement policy on iran, when sanctions would be eased and cash would return to the, to the leadership in iran. On the other hand, there are others who argue that state Society Power relations have developed negatively because with the sanctions also Civil Society is actually weakened and i think this controversy is going to continue to you have to feverish me writing down, you know, i mean when it comes to iran, obviously, i mean the people of iraq, they dont, they dont mind this situation. Theyre living in it will be changed by uprise or by negotiations or anything. They need to have something changed in their country and theyre absolutely there. You know, its that they need something changed in this is many parts of the world. So what role can america ploy in this . What is, what is going to change with joe biden . And his now newly announced team coming into office has since signals that he wants to reopen the return to the deal. Who knows his election coming up in iran. But one thing i liked about iran its important to forget is hizbollah for 4 years ago was a real problem. Hizbollah has been starved of resources because of the sanctions. The sanctions that are popular among ordinary iranians are also reducing terrorism. The threat of terrorism, thanks to trump, did there only one of the f. X. Actually really . I mean, lets, lets, lets be fair. Also has a problem because you have a crisis in lebanon, which actually brought everything, everything down and also hizbullah. And they are just a part of that society. Suddenly the resources are cut back. Iran doesnt have the money to be to be active everywhere there in yemen, theyre even in syria. They are in lebanon. But at the end of the day, its a combination of a couple of things. Didnt work out 100 percent, and i wouldnt, i wouldnt like to say that. Ok, lets just rewind for a moment. The incumbent president of the United States of america is still donald trump. But it seems that he is slowly accepting that he cant stay in the white house indefinitely. So the question is, will it be by the front door by the back door of the tea leaves and will it be with a bang or donald trump as half heartedly and indirectly admitted defeat on twitter for weeks after the election. The incumbent president remains in a solid judicial to the election result, no prospects of success, hardly completing mandatory tasks, such as the virtual g 20 summit. After a while, he cut the signal to play golf. He seems to be spending more time at the golf course in the white house. When one of his few public appearances inspired even his personal broadcaster, fox news, broadcast. It is getting lonely for the most powerful man in the world. Does donald trump give it up . Still is the question, has he given up and hes got another couple of weeks to work with. What should we expect from those couple of weeks . I mean, he said that he looked at the g. 20 very washed out. But we have, we have the impression that he still has a lot of sort of dog. Well, i mean, hes certainly struggling, as someone, as i alluded to earlier, who doesnt believe really undemocratic institutions and processes. So he has had a tough time. And you know, i think he is, you know, trying to prepare or to satisfy his supporters domestically and internationally. Some of the moves that weve talking about. But we have to see whether all those move moves going to materialize. And this is also probably in a few of his real, you know, problem or eventually or probable or unlikely whatever. Rerun in 2024, so to keep the support of regional allies and also to keep keep, keep the support of the social constituencies that he has in the country. When you talk about movies being made, youre talking i assume about diplomacy. And im just wondering, just how did you see, he wound up with the show when your statement that the old america is no longer the america. That was there is a different america. Now, are you talking there about diplomacy . America lost its i think thats where america has 1st fog lost its credibility. People dont know what to expect from this american and anger and, and secondly is suddenly left a mark which will go on notice for the next years a decade. So he has really changed the face of america, and america has changed its focus. I mean, the middle east and europe is not, is not deaf ost priority any longer. So this has begun already. Yes, it has. Yeah. So, so the end of pacific area is a region is actually, they are there now, and we have to live with the repercussions and trump was just an extreme and extreme toot toot toot. To present this to us. And joe boyd says, america is back to get the confidence from depressed as the others here. I mean, i think the United States is a leader will be a leader. And i think thats one of the reasons biden wanted to run for president. He wanted to help restore the United States tradition, the reputation as being a leader, and he likes working with alliances. He likes working with partners. He gave a very important speech last year at the munich security conference, talking about alliances. I think biden will be a lot like previous american republican and democratic president s, i think trump will be the aberration. We look back at this period in history. Diplomacy is back so definitely, i mean look at his choice for foreign secretary of state. I mean, this is somebody who works, whos lived a lot of his life in europe in his and realizes the importance of him realize the values of these relations and alliances and biden says himself, the United States is stronger with his partners. Is a new to a new sound, a new tone coming from washington. I think the last 4 years of hard and a lot of people in europe, they think horrible things about their states, but it worked in the institutions work, democracy worked and now we have a new president after 4 years of the whole job, a major rebuilding job has just begun its already underway. Do you buy into it . Well, i mean, as much as, you know, trump tried to revive its reverse everything obama did biden is going to do the same when it comes to trumps policies. Yet were not going to see a sea change on all conceivable levels, some of the things that were preceding him, the, you know, the disagreements over the role of European Partners and nato. The issue with china and also i mean, biden, its true that biden has decades of you know, experience in the Foreign Policy establishment. But realities in the ground and release have tried dramatically changed since a decade ago. We have ensured a process where, you know, some people call it a long term revolutionary process, where theres a lot of, you know, dissatisfaction uprisings all over the place. So this is, there is changing realities on the ground. And there probably also different expectations from the United States. So the challenges are extreme, but surely he can mend transatlantic relations. There is also an appetite for that here in europe. Ok when you talk about change on the ground, the parts of the world were talking about is the one that goes from the middle east through iran, right over to afghanistan. Donald trump has had an impact. Now lets have a look at what, where things stand for the time being, and then well talk more about those revolutionary pushes in afghanistan and iraq. The old president is creating facts before the new one is sworn in truck withdrawn 2000, u. S. Soldiers from hindu kush alone by mid january. U. S. Allies are outraged because without american air support their deployments on the ground could become suicide missions. The taliban could regain power, and afghanistan could once again become a haven for terrorism. But trumps policies. Have many supporters in the rich countries of the middle east. Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates have established diplomatic relations with israel, with the help of u. S. Mediation. Saudi arabia may be the next to do so. The palestinians and their interests, however, have been completely ignored by trump. Hostility towards iran is legendary. After he terminated the iran nuclear deal, sanctions and threats against tehran followed even an air strike on iran under trump cannot be ruled out, will transform policy become a Security Risk in the final days of his term in office. Is there a biden doctrine . As far as i can see, there is a doctrine that he wants to to heal the wounds that trump has created. The doctrine is certainly to to reunite with the allies, but the u. S. Is not an altruistic country. Its a country driven by and trysts. So finally, what we see is a nice or a nice approach, good intentions, good to know what intentions are back, which is a good thing, which is a great thing. And at the same time, the interests will stay the same. I mean, theres much more room for negotiation, which is wonderful, and people who know their job and know have the expertise having a party to be heard, which has not been the case in the last 4 years, only rarely has been the case. So i think thats definitely true, but it would be real. See, it is not the america we have seen 5 years ago, or which we have known 5 years ago under obamas america. Tell me about the mood, the mood on the streets in iran, and how do you know this diplomatic, this new would be new diplomatic approach on the high and the people down on the streets getting more and more angry and impoverished in iran. How does it together . I mean, i think, i mean 1st of all is a point to point out how the iranian leadership also thinks about this question of been fearing the ramifications of transmatch on the maximum pressure strategy. Because of the economic comic sanctions that were quite onerous on the regime. And there was a lot of hopes pinned on the Biden Administration. So from the leadership side, its quite clear from, from the societal level as of there are different estimations on, on the benefits of sanctions. And some sections might be in favor of sanctions. But there are other important sections in sections of the population in iran who fear the, you know, the ramifications of economic sanctions on the general population, but beas be it as it may, the general feeling for a few years. Now, at least in iran, is that they identify the policies of their own governments to be the most important factor in their own fate for their own. So. So foreign forces, although they have been very important impact upon iran be its by action or by in action, be it the United States or europe will have a continuing impact. But there are no more, lets say there are no more illusions that there is a foreign savior. Although the domestic situation in iran that is also not really, you know, filled with hope, pushes some people to think about a foreign savior. But i think also didnt prove to be, you know, aiding iranian democracy. Yeah. So the Biden Administration is promising sake of a radically different approach. I just want to thank you know, Something Like the american assurance that recognition of jerusalem as the capital of israel is not the kind of policy that joe biden might reverse. What. Where when are we expecting reversals . You know, i dont think america will change a policy with the cap, with the embassy in jerusalem and the recognition of the capital trump a hugely popular in israel. Hes been very pro israel from the beginning as we, as we saw him. Other thing hes done in the middle east, its important. Its also written about in the u. S. President is the, the, in the piece with you even possibly saudi arabia. This is something thats getting a lot of attention or got a lot of attention. The u. S. Also from from liberal columnists who are praising trump, saying in other times hed be nominated for the nobel peace prize. And i know in germany, trump is not that popular, and i was really interested to see the media hardly wrote about that, but there were quite a few liberal journalists here in general as well. Yeah, but i mean, in germany, if that had been obama, it would have had a lot different story, i think. So you see how unfair sometimes the media is towards trump, especially in europe. And that was a pretty big, important breakthrough. And i think thats something a legacy that will trump will be remembered for. The breakthrough with you, a in saudi arabia, would be actually more cautious because what actually happened under trumps watch is an official izing of some of them americas policies and realities in the region that were there. You know, so there was cooperation between all those states. You know, more covertly than overtly and now it is official ised plus the fact that none of those regimes are, you know, democratic there are, you know, very authoritarian regimes. And they, by no account can, you know, represent the arab populations and their aspirations in the region so, so this is, you know, this is not a positive development, per se, that there is now a peace deal between bad. I mean, saudi arabia, the u. A. E. And israel, this is not something you know, that is going to lead to necessarily, to a positive development for the region and also 2 positive outcomes for the populations of the region. So there is a lot of, you know, euphoria about what was happening, although i think its much of that your forest, misleading is also not the end of the story. I would say, i mean for instance, i mean you, you can, you can befriend the u. A. E. About at the end of the day, the problem is not solved with the palestinians. So you cannot ignore the meeting, put into that through the history books as they have solved. No, its not solved. I mean the palestinian issue is still there. Its considered as failed. Now. I mean, you have huge frustration in the palestinian communities and just look to jordan for instance. I mean they take, they, they have taken like millions of palestinians. And where shall they go . Actually, they just, they just believe the problem in the region and give it back to people who can deal with it. And thats not what it, what it,