Soon, not even dozens of so pieces and when all this will be in effect as part of the swarms of the socalled marine rehydrons, i think that it will be very dangerous for the kerch bridge and for the shipyard of the black sea fleet in in principle, if we talk about the actions under kupyansk why, in principle, is this direction for the russians now . What is the point of such, i would say , serious offensive actions in this direction. Of course, in theory, this direction is generally the northern flank of the great offensive that was planned by the russians within the framework of this operations, and when a year ago, even since april of last year, when they started conducting a major operation in donbas, that is, it was the northern direction of the attack on slavic kramatorsk, it was the western direction, that is this is Severodonetsk Lysychansk e. E. Bakhmut and there was the southern direction this is volnovakha and what can be called the zaporizhia direction e. E. From south to north and as we see after the liberation of kharkiv oblast and e. E. The rejection of the russians in luhansk oblast for them it is really there was such a cut of this northern flank, and that is, from a Strategic Point of view, they can try to restore this uh, northern flank of the offensive on slavyanskyi on the main grouping of ukrainian troops in donbas, but on the other hand, if we talk about the current moment, i still assume that this offensive, this very intense pressure on Ukrainian Forces, is intended, first of all, to create conditions when the ukrainian command will be forced to transfer reserves from other directions. Well, for example, from the bakhmut direction or even from the southern direction, and in this way. Of course, this reduces the capabilities of the Ukrainian Forces accordingly to carry out offensive actions as in the bakhmut region, and of course in the southern direction. That is to say that this is the ukrainian offensive. Well, as the russians say, the ukrainian offensive will stop and after that the russians will be able to either for example, create conditions for a counteroffensive in the same southern direction, remembering somewhere your plans for zaporozhye, for example, or still try to continue to press and break through the front in the kupyan direction, again creating a threat for a breakthrough to the slavic amateur to destroy the ukrainian plans, that is, i think that this is an attempt to intercept the strategic truth , to change the course of hostilities in general, instead of the ukrainian offensive, to create conditions for stopping this offensive, and then the breakthrough of the Ukrainian Defense and the beginning. Perhaps even on several counterattacks and countermeasures. In other words, it can be said that this is to some extent a retribution for the liberation of kharkiv oblast from the russians, also as a motive. Revenge is possible from the point of view of a political point of view. Yes, but from a Military Point of view, it is still here they hardly think about the category of revenge. Well, you can say that now we are winning back, but in reality, when Planning Operations , they come from other tasks, that is, i think , after all, the reverse consists in changing precisely the course hostilities in the theater and forcing the ukrainian command to abandon the offensive to the south, in fact, the situation for the russians is very, very difficult at the front and the main thing is the lack of reserves, that is , the ukrainians are grinding these reserves very effectively, i said that the artillery also works very effectively, cluster munitions help the russians do not have extra reserves, it is now noted that even the fact that they are actively transferring reserves from the kherson region of the left bank will already transfer another part to the zaporizhzhia direction, trying there to stop the ukrainian troops who are already approaching the second line of defense. This means that conditions are being created on the left bank of the kherson region for more active actions of Ukrainian Forces. The same will happen if , for example, the russians start dropping reserves from other directions to neutralize the threat of a breakthrough of further lines of defense in the southern direction and they dont have additional forces, they havent spent a few minutes the next wave of mobilization in the spring is now planned for the fall, but the fall mobilization will bear fruit only sometime in the winter, that is, the most important thing for them is now stop ukrainian activity, drag it out until the winter, when they will have new reserves ready, then even try to create a threat from belarus, that is, it is not excluded if they mobilize 500,000 military servicemen, why the construction of the hundred thousand group on the territory of belarus and then, again, er, carry out several of offensive ee actions in western ukraine , in kyiv, perhaps in other directions, again with the aim of pulling Ukrainian Forces from the south and donbas, and in turn, to be fixed on these ee already annexed territories, because of putin there is such a clause, these annexed territories, which are written in the constitution of russia , cannot be given away under any circumstances, because this is a trump card for future negotiations, about which he is, in principle , a dream. Our network is in touch. And now we will talk with valery chalin , a diplomat, the head of the Ukrainian Crisis Media Center , the former ambassador of ukraine to the United States. Greetings, mr. Valery. I congratulate you. Glory to ukraine. Glory to the heroes. Appeared in the middle Eastern Press is that the president of the United Arab Emirates muhammed belzey, but he is not even interested in arranging a meeting of the president s of ukraine and russia at the Climate Summit that will take place at the end of october and the beginning of november this year in dubai, where did this idea even come from , the president of the United Arab Emirates and connects with the desire of pope francis, this is not the first idea of meeting zelensky with putin, i pretended that it is constantly being talked about, but the fact that it happened right after the meeting of National Security advisers in gigi allows me to talk about it in more detail well, there are two questions here. One short one, why the arab emirates, because in principle it is not the first attempt, and he has already met with putin, and there they also discussed exactly what his mediation wishes are, it is unrealistic simply absolutely because there is no, on the one hand, there is no readiness for this from another reason why there is no readiness is because now in any development of Events Society does not perceive ukraine does not perceive these negotiations on surrender as actually said about it the other day one of the ensigns in the russian official, that is, capitulation could stop, and he is not sure whether it will stop russia from capitulating, well, you understand that in such conditions, no one from the leadership of ukraine will take such steps, why did he say well , speculations have begun, it is certain that ukraine has made a certain correction, you already said that it is possible to start some there negotiations, even though there were still occupying troops on my territory, i was here listening attentively, er, mykhailo, thats exactly what he really is, as i consider him to be an expert in the military sphere. I would still like to clarify annexation, no. Russia did not annex ukrainian territory, it occupied ukrainian territory, it wants to annex, but so far it has not succeeded , and the record of the constitution of russia is only for internal use, if i do not yet see any grounds for such a scenario, and moreover , i believe that the scenario without negotiations ukraine and russia it is still more realistic than the one that maybe someone would like to hear, of course, after saudi arabia that there can be two summits , one seal, well, that is, at the level of the president s , one seal without russia and then with russia frankly speaking, it is very difficult for me to imagine this meeting between the president of ukraine and the president of russia. I think that it will not take place from, for sure, it will not take place this year, in principle , if we speak the proposal of the global rooster, do you think that it has become closer to the western position during the last consultations , as far as can be said that countries such as china and india as well as saudi arabia can reduce their ties with moscow is it all an illusion i have a different impression the position of western countries has become closer to the position of the global rooster precisely in that part of a certain skepticism that it will not be possible to get out of the war by the complete deoccupation of the territory. Well, i think that this skepticism is caused, well, the discussion is caused by this, of course, the situation today is not stagnation, that is, the ukrainian offensive is slowly progressing, but there is no fucking blitzkrieg, which for some reason has been promoted, including if lets be to be honest, our information errors were also because they were promoting some topic of countermeasures, if in fact hmmm, you also give information that there are still russians, the offensive continues in some areas and there is a defense, that is, so common with efforts, we raised the expectations for this period of the summer company, for some reason. Well, now we simply see the realities that exist. So this is definitely not an issue of this year, but a desire to somehow force the leadership of ukraine to a pause, a truce and in principle, well, everyone really wants to restore some kind of business, he said , as soon as possible, it is present and it will increase, this is an obvious thing, but the official position of president zelenskyi, in principle, was clearly stated, and the position of the ukrainian people is unambiguous, you and i we know very well that putin will not stop, its all an illusion, we know russia so much better than they do, and thats why the situation here is that we just have to encourage our partners so that they dont have such attitudes that are now appearing somewhere out there, only this situation can be affected the Election Campaign in the United States, many western analysts now write voluminous texts about how much ukraine can influence this Election Campaign and how much the Election Campaign can, in turn, influence the pace and opportunities to help ukraine in a difficult war to say i saw the campaigns well, i organized maybe somewhere the previous few there 45 i can say for sure that the main issues were of course economic and social in nature, i. E. Inflation, taxes, repayment of loans by students there, abortions, gender issues, er, that is, the key issue of these was always an external one politics it was such an additional element for the discussion. So, for example, in debates , it can certainly play a role on television , that is, in forming the image of the candidate as a strong, confident politician. What contribution did he make to the victory, if the political Joseph Bidens rearend technologies, i will take this part, it will be one story, if not, then it will fade into the background a little further, so it is difficult for me to predict now it is too early to make a prediction, we can only see somewhere closer to the summer how much the topic of the russian invasion of ukrainian victories in the preelection will be used companies, in general, i think that the specifics of the us elections and how the votes are distributed in my opinion well, it will not be affected as much as this image moment for this biden, it is important, we know it, that is, he to show once again that he is a confident, strong, dynamic politician, it is important for him to have joint victory can give such a chance well, i mean not even only this, i mean what else can Work Congress uh, we know that in democracy they have a majority in the house of representatives, and if you imagine that the republicans will support their candidate, lets say it will be donald trump, trump will advocate for a reduction in aid, then the Biden Administration may face a serious problem related to the congressional mechanisms of providing there are different types of assistance. Well, i wont give details now. Why was english not used . Is it necessary or not . I think that this mechanism, which does not provide for the allocation of funds by the congress , is currently being submitted for 24 billion for ukraine. The First Quarter, but the First Quarter of the budgetamerican year. That is, it is october, november, december, in fact, for this period, and 13 billion in military aid. Well, in principle, it is somewhere comparable to the dynamics that existed before, so i think that everything will be decided. Right now, and no one wants to be on the side of course, not only putin is on the side, lets say so distant, if it goes, the dynamics are very positive, what we all hope for in the future, if not, then the issue of allocation of funds can become the subject of such a serious discussion, but there are certain mechanisms, now packages are being introduced there in addition to aid to ukraine 4 billion is allocated to a popular topic for republicans, the arrangement of the southern border with mexico, there is 12 billion for magence, well, that is , for emergency situations, the addition of consequences. So there are mechanisms for how to provide support. I think that this package he has every chance to pass, although it is difficult, but i think he will pass closer to the elections, this question is always serious, but uh, i assume that this period is very important to us now, but the next six months are just more important, critical for, even critically important for the future the development of events , if there are no problems here now, then everything simply depends on the situation, and the republicans , i emphasize once again, will not call , for example, not to help ukraine, this will not happen, this is the most popular joint tripod the majority of the population is in favor of supporting ukraine in the provision of weapons. And tell me, mr. Valery, how serious a threat do you consider to be a hybrid war of russia against nato countries, which arose, apparently, in connection with the movement of wagnerian units closer to the state borders of the republic of poland , the republic of lithuania, i will say what i said a long time ago and in in principle, i repeat the collision between russia and nato it was such an irreversible process and these collisions were, we simply have a political decision from the United States of nato countries not to notice such incidents, i will tell you that they were very serious what is now becoming known over the black sea is that a russian fighter jet attacked a british fighter jet, but the Russian Missile did not work. And just like that, rockets jumped out and fell on the territory of nato countries, that is, nato countries will do Everything Possible to cover up these facts in terms of information, or will i dont know whether there will be a clash or not. Putin would like a short clash with nato, which would not end for him , then a real confrontation, uh , he can do it. Places they did such things with the help, including wagners mercenaries in syria, and i perfectly understand what is being prepared or will this be the result of this deployment, but already natos position, i look at it skeptically, unfortunately, then also sees what nato is doing now and what strategy is being implemented, i tell you i will say one thing, the strategy of controlled war that our partners want to implement. It has its few possible and more advantages before the escalation of the use of nuclear weapons. If they do not change it now, it will be a huge mistake of theirs, and then in years they will sprinkle their heads with ashes, i see it simply and not only me, a lot of military intelligence in america see this political mistake, lets call things by their names, that is, to set the conditions for a conflict of such a civilizational conflict, which now endangers the existence of all the rules in the world, to set dependence on some companies this is a disaster because, uh, well, i think that they, uh, are very seriously mistaken in their ability to control all processes , including believing enough of the russians maintaining contacts with them. That is, well, it seems to me that a colossal mistake is being made here, which can bring very bad results. The situation is just waiting to see what will happen in the coming months on the front, this is the impression of no additional sanctions, no additional pressure, no additional pressure, well, apart from some isolation, it must be said that the usa without our partners is unlikely to be in such isolation would be russia, some changes in the presence of china, other countries, this is a good moment, but this is precisely caused by the fact that they do not want to miss this conclusion, that is, if i reserve everyone, i will say yes, everyone now for some reason got the wrong impression about the possibility of ending the hot phase of the war this year and about the fact that here it is possible to find a solution that ukraine will also be forced to implement. I have seen such situations in the past. In ukraine, these concepts are cunningly twisted where there are no subjects of the ukrainian people. It is falling apart. I did not plan them, that is, the end of the war is meant, but with the fact that ukraine, as western analysts say, swallowed the bitter concession, obviously the loss of certain territories or neutral status, no neutral status. Well, it would be a disaster in general. And in general, how can the president who announced the goal of membership now to nato and we are all going to washington, which i understand, and suddenly the central status, i dont think that this would not be a mistake, it would be a betrayal of ukraine , just at this stage one thing does, then i will remind you that yanukovych is like that released, flew out, eh, eh, eh