Perspective we continue the saturday Political Club anzhelika sezonka not an interesting topic how to improve the demographic situation in ukraine is it possible in the conditions of martial law dmytro shushpanov professor heading the department of demographic modeling and forecasting demography and social research, i am a bird of the National Academy of sciences of ukraine , congratulations, mr. Dmytro, congratulations, well, lets go lets generally try to assess the Current Situation with the demographic situation in the country, in principle, what is it in your opinion, how will the situation develop, as far as it is possible to assume that the continuation of the war is directly correlated with the nonreturn of those ukrainian citizens who left for western countries primarily to escape from hostilities of course, the situation complex, difficult, and certainly in any situation during any military operations. Whenever there is a war, it negatively affects the demographic situation , the workload usually increases mortality, as in our situation, a huge number of people were forced to emigrate from the country. At the same time, we can see trends that are not as terrible as we might have predicted right away, because if we look at the numbers that the ministry of justice is giving us now, the birth rate has really decreased but it did not decrease as catastrophically as we predicted from the beginning, er marriage, we also see that the number of registered marriages er is positively impressive. Demographic resolution both now and in the future, that is, a certain stability that would ensure the number and quality of the population ee in the future without ee measures for the return of our citizens. Population at the level of 3032 million, 300,000 migrants are needed every year. And please tell me with the statistics that it provides, well, this is the last one that i found , the un peoples fund writes about the fact that as of april 2023 in ukraine 36. 7 Million People live there, and among them almost 65 percent of people are aged from 15 to 64 years old. Before the fullscale war , as far as i remember, something was counted there. Of course, we did not have such an official normal count for a long time. I think that 40 million was called a number, well, now there are a lot of conversations about the numbers, the question even in them, the numbers are the question as a question in the genderage structure , uh, besides the question that these numbers can be different, first of all, we can talk about the number ee population of ukraine within the borders of 1991 and we insist on this, but you yourself understand that calculating the population at the moment within these borders is practically impossible to calculate it and within the territory of the temporarily occupied territory because it is difficult to calculate almost territories that are temporarily occupied. Here is the territory that is not now where we can count. It is also quite difficult. Various types of calculations are carried out. Well, nevertheless, believe that the numbers will differ according to international data. And according to the ukrainians, because the disagreement in the conditions of the war is inevitable, and first of all, it is inevitable because we cannot count how many people left through the eastern border and first of all. That is, people could leave there through russia, then go somewhere else or stay in russia and in principle, this figure is completely incomprehensible, plus we are working with the Supreme Council with representatives of the un high commissioner , they are currently on their website and the figure is 6 million ee 240,000 who are in europe well, there are also a lot of questions about this here are the numbers thats why president zelensky voiced the idea, or rather the statement that he already has an idea how to return ukrainians home, but he didnt reveal the details yet, maybe your institute involved you directly in order to come up with some ideas on how to improve the demographic situation, i understood. And what we are participating in now in the development of certain strategies and plans. And i cant say, uh, what exactly the president and his team stop at, but if we talk directly about myself and our team, well, i would single out a few such points there, well, first of all, it all depends on uh, how much uh, when there will be victory , what will be the consequences of uh, what will be the duration of the war, and because of this, a lot has actually been completed dmytro after all, in 5 years, people will definitely arrange their lives abroad and relatively speaking, in a year, they probably havent had time. Of course, the fidelity of return decreases with duration. At the same time, for the return , we have to provide the cages with important points , this is primarily security, this is housing, this is work, eh , i would highlight the minimization of corruption. Well, and the provision of rights and freedom, in addition to this, it also depends on our European Partners from europe, because, for example, the experience of returning migrants to the balkan countries , the European Union of European Countries played a very active role there there are several programs, primarily helping communities to return their members to their communities. These were programs related to Regional Housing programs. Who still returned and on is currently actively living and working in his native country, and please tell me in principle if we are talking about the situation that exists now with the return of people. Yes, we can also imagine a situation when people simply have nowhere to return to even after the war , if housing is destroyed, even imagine that the territory has been liberated, well, but the house is destroyed, there is no work, there is no family there, there are no relatives who have also left for other regions of ukraine. Place, well, to her own country, but to a foreign place, here is a person from mariupol, she is with us , she is in i dont know, in wroclaw, and she needs to return to the conditional lviv. Well, by and large, she has learned polish, she already lives in lviv, she needs to switch to ukrainian, as she could not communicating in everyday life in mariupol is also the same as moving to another in another hundred, renting an apartment, well, relatively speaking, yes, thats why i said that first of all there are three main priorities, and again , uh, previous experience related to the balkan countries e helped the balkans to restore housing, they helped to restore life, work, and so on , that is, the programs were so specific , they were given to m. A lot also depends on the position of the countries in which the migrants are now, because well , for example, tomorrow victory in our country will improve life and social programs there will be canceled, it is clear that those who could not get settled yes, but on the contrary. It is possible that even social programs can be transferred to the territory of the countries of our country, for example, there are certain benefits for a certain time, and it is clear that under such circumstances it is possible that people will return but it is clear that the security of housing work is well, the main points that will be as motivators for returning, you can imagine the population of ukraine after the war. Well, at least approximately how it should look , i can imagine approximately once again i say it depends on when we will have victory, but we are aiming for 30 31 million and, er, the achievement of our own demographic resilience on these numbers. By the way , with the birth rate, if you know the statistics , they say that during the war, more boys are born, but i looked and saw that, in principle, it is almost 50 to 50. No, this is classic the process is always 1. 52 more boys are born, but this is well, as they say, fiction is that boys are born more , especially during the war, no, no, this is always the ratio between born boys and girls is always stable and always a little by a couple of percent, eh, before the fullscale invasion, how much more was the percentage of women there or men in our country, or is the population already visible, well, it is clear that there are more women in our country than men, unfortunately, the mortality rate is very high, and hmm, starting somewhere there from 3540 years old men are the most, well enough, men are more than lets say, so if we take everything or the essence of the population, it is clear that the percentage, the language, the ratio, and women are more. Well , it is much more, or not significantly. About 1020 years, then there already in 20 years, it is about the same, and then starting from 2530 years, the numerical percentage of women begins to prevail, but now there should be fewer women after you. We have a specific migration, sorry, they are already leaving in general, women and men leave much less and, by the way, families are falling apart, they are not just leaving, but many are getting divorced. At the moment, we cannot clearly define this ratio. To assess the sexage structure , well, it is much more difficult and for this it takes time. 30 million for such a territory, lets imagine even the best option for ukraine, that the entire territory of ukraine is liberated from the invaders, that ukraine has established control over the east, lets go and crimea thats what what does ukraine want in this war . We dont know how the war will end. Lets say right away that the war is a war, but it may not end as the ukrainians expect. It may not end as the russians expect. It may not end at all. It will not end there in the nearest 1015 years, as the conflict is resilient, but imagine that the entire territory is liberated, a large part of the inhabitants of crimea and the eastern and southern territories of ukraine who move to the Russian Federation, this is also a process that is almost inevitable, taking into account the fact that there are already growing generations of people who do not associate themselves with ukraine, and only people who would like to live in ukraine can stay there , and what in such a ukraine, which will be destroyed after the war, socially determined, soandso, such andsuch a complex state, not Everyone Wants what will be the structure of the population or will we get a huge part of the empty territory . This is russian siberia in the east of the country. Maybe in the south there will simply be a void. Well, for example, this year , canada celebrated the event of crossing the population of 40 million. Can you imagine such an area . Canada yes, somewhere there, as far as i remember, 10 million square kilometers, that is, a huge territory, eh. The question is how to organize the process of eh territorial , how to organize the process of resettlement it is clear that no one will forcibly send anyone. But you understand that people always go where there is work, where there are prospects, especially young people, this applies to young people, yes, they always go there where there is a prospect. That is why it is already a matter of postwar reconstruction and in principle i dont see anything so critical in this. The second question is that we really have an aging population by that time, and it is clear that aging will become more acute in connection with these issues. Well, it will also have to be decided differently. Apparently after all, it will be necessary to actively implement the return policy of our citizens and whether it is possible to temporarily or fully involve migrants. This is a classic practice. For example , you are in austria, according to the Migration Program , 26,000 migrants remain in austria every year. The standard of living in austria is in eastern ukraine. In austria there are 9 Million People , well, count 26,000 these are classes every year, but they can be interested in postwar ukraine, we have to invite people and how to encourage them, well , you understand that everything depends on what if investments will go to us, then why not . And they will definitely go , i think. Because what really concerns and i think that, especially in countries where there is overpopulation , this is an option, you understand. And how to create a program to attract migration, angelica, right here, the question of the program is if there is one. If there are jobs , ukrainians return, if there are no jobs, ukrainians do not return. But what do we do with grants if migrants return . In general, we dont talk about anything, they have to be different, there is no other option. Well, returning to the territory, the students compared this situation with canada, but in canada, people live in absolutely specific areas , because other areas are areas of, lets say, cold provinces and there are simply no conditions for such an ordinary european life, lets say, to which the majority of the population of canada is used all the same, it is used in a certain way where the population density is small, but they also have oil and gas fields there, and where are they . Is it possible to compare the territory that is a foreststeppe with the territory that is essentially . Because of the tundra in russia, it is uninhabited, yes, thats why its logical with canada, by the way, too. But this is not such a territory, there are no forests growing there anymore , its an agglomeration, you understand, we are comparing taiga, which has no population, how to develop agriculture well believe me, in many European Countries, there is quite a small, small population living in rural areas. However, they fully provide 8090 of their country with food in relation to such frontline areas. Yes, and in the areas that suffered the most. Well, you can take an example it is clear to the people who live in such territories that they have separate preferences, separate surcharges for such possible increased security, and so on, and the number of the population in the same health, it must be recognized , does not increase, decreases well, none the less you can say that we dont really have real recipes. Well, i wouldnt say that there are no recipes at all. I dont think its good. Thank you. I invite shpanov, doctor of economic sciences, professor, head of the demographic modeling and Forecasting Department of the ptukh institute of demography and social research. Im at mr. Vitalys i will also ask, we literally have a minute before the next guest , im just curious about the jobs, so if we have them right, then either ukrainians will stay or return, or migrants will come to us, who creates jobs, well the business state sometimes, but more business creates jobs and now what is being done with business, business is already closing, small entrepreneurs are simply closing their doors, closing their companies because they are simply being pressured by the tax burden , taxes are increasing, well, listen, if the war continues for years, we must honestly say ukrainian the economy is already dead, there is no need for any illusions in such a macro version , metallurgy, agriculture, Small Business will always be there, no matter how much pressure is put on it , but it is not created jobs and it is not means that the dead economy cannot be revived after the war, now the question of wages may be raised again, if people can receive europeanstyle wages, they will return from European Countries to germany. I apologize , it is more profitable to live on a social program than to receive a salary in ukraine. Minimal, to be honest. We already have many friends abroad who tell us that even if they receive the minimum wage, they can live better than in ukraine. Salaries, some uh compensations, etc. , what is a million, everyone understands perfectly well, it means then we can really attract migrants to pay them a small amount of money, i am in third world countries and ukrainians will receive such things, this will be a third world country well, for a certain time of the global cock, we will intelligently talk about such a country like pakistan and pakistanis will work for me. Well, this is also a possible Development Option than before. You just have to understand that miracles do not happen, but we perceive the end of the war as the transformation of ukraine into switzerland, the end of the war turns ukraine into pakistan and peaceful pakistan, and this will be our great happiness for more people. The question arises whether it is possible for some people to choose ukraine and be ready to live in such social conditions for years and for their children to live in such social conditions. To join them people who live in the conditions of a different world, a world of a much different nature, this is a very big question, the ukrainians are not very ready. It seems to me that the encouragement of people means that these people will have to pay much more so that they return to the people who live here and these people who live here will say that it is unfair. Why is she here . They are beautiful. They lived for themselves in poland, germany when they were under fire as a result. They come and immediately have huge social benefits for housing on there is the provision of a medical center, and we are already dreaming here, well, there are many questions for, as always, yours are true. It seems to me that these are forecasts, but they are the realities that await us. Oleksandr kharov is already in touch with us, a diplomat and an expert on Foreign Affairs and the Security Policy of the extraterrestrial defense center. Greetings, mr. Good evening. So lets talk about aid. In the United States, they say that they are preparing as much as they want in the administration to go to congress to get this aid. How do you think, in principle , how stable is the aid of the United States . Further, it becomes a little more problematic, since none of course, there is some kind of fatigue, well, this is such a general thing, and the most important thing is that ukraine has become an internal political factor in the United States, and we are received in literally every trembians on twitter say why do we have to give money to ukrainians when it means that we have unresolved problems there and so on. And you know, the last few weeks have literally passed, there was almost a flash mob when they showed a video or a picture from the peaceful life of kyiv and said look thats how they live in kyiv on our money. And look at the streets of some small town in the United States where there are drug addicts or something. Well,