There is no question of a weak, correspondingly protracted conflict, that is why they are in a hurry to use the socalled window of opportunity until, respectively, the middle of june. And what do you think about the mobilization capabilities of the Russian Federation . Enough, mr. Vitaly, here it is worth talking about what the total mobilization reserve of the occupying country is 12 million. For comparison, ukraine has 2. 2 million. Therefore, accordingly, if a decision is made on general mobilization, the Russian Federation will use. The latter, as they say, is the jackpot, namely the advantage in manpower, the same tactic that was used during the second world war. Well, we see that putin is somehow very reluctant to the idea of general mobilization, this is the main thesis that they refute, moreover, the new minister of defense bilousov, they even say that he will think about the demobilization of those who are currently at the front, well, this, lets say , is more reassuring for the internal ones. Consumer than reality. The Russian Federation is currently looking for ways to replenish personnel without conducting partial mobilization. There is talk of the involvement of the so called special contingent of katze, convicts and the implementation of a total mobilization in the occupied territories of ukraine, luhansk, donetsk oblast, zaporizhzhya, kherson oblast. By the way, mobilizations also took place in crimea, which had not happened until recently. Moreover, it is said that the mobilization in crimea from. Takes place exclusively for the National Identity of the crimean tatar population and, accordingly, ukrainians, this is indicative, that is, it tries to solve several issues at the same time replenishment of personnel and replacement of the corresponding population at the expense of the corresponding russianspeaking population, well, the third contingent is the so called mercenaries, not only from the Russian Federation, but also from third world countries nepal, somalia . And others who are ready to fight on the territory for 500 respectively of our country, and these are small funds for the ministry of defense of the Russian Federation, so there will be enough willing people, and it is precisely at the expense of this that they are trying to compensate for the current needs in manpower, so it seems to me that in the national republics of russia, they are the same politics is conducted as in crimea, absolutely precisely, at the expense of national minorities. Look at who is mainly fighting, buryats, kalmyks, and others, i. E. Also representatives of the north caucasus, and the question of disposal of small nations is resolved, especially in the north caucasus. Thank you, mr. Dmytro, dmytro snigiv, a military expert, cochairman of the Public Initiative on the law of the case, was in touch with us. We will now continue this russian topic in a conversation with the russian oppositionist, former deputy of the state duma of the Russian Federation ilya panamarev. Greetings mr. Ilya. Good evening, well, lets start by explaining to our viewers the essence of these changes in the russian government and leadership that took place recently, well, first of all, there is a certain internal dispute there, and putin needs to keep his head, even after what happened oh prigorzhin, thats when we said that. Shoigu will definitely be with them, but that it will last a certain time when he will remain in office, because putin never does anything under pressure, and thats why he, for example, and and put together this term, when there will be a rotation of the government, so that it looks like it was his own decision, nor that someone forced him to do it, but. But since there was additional pressure from mr. Patrushev, who tried, first, to destroy shoigu, secondly, to promote his. Son to the post of Prime Minister, then putin, who, well, probably planned to promote dmitry patroshev, that is, the son of the son of mykola platonovych, he did it, but removed patroshev to another position, that is, these are 100 internal traditional maneuvers that mr. Putin does, and what happened to the appointment. This is the most interesting thing, i have known andrii yaremovich for a long time, and he has always been such an ideological supporter of the militarization of the economy, because he believes that its growth, development and modernization are possible only through militarization, even during the time when i was during the presidency of dmitry medvedov. Was such an opponent who cooperated with putin, and to all our opinions that it is necessary to cooperate with the west, he said that it is not necessary to do this, it is necessary to develop internal demands and the militaryindustrial complex, but now he will be responsible for that is, it is difficult to call him a liberal economist, but he is a competent economist, this is also an important issue. He is competent, he is very ideological, he is not liberal from the point of view, he is not neoliberal, he is a monetarist, he is a neocontincian, and he has the main idea there, which needs to be developed domestic industry, which is not an idea at all, i, for example, support it, but of course not at the expense of the militaryindustrial complex, but he says that nothing else can exist in. And that is why he was simply the only one of such famous russian economists, who from the first day and ideologically supported the war, what is his main task, what do you think in these stories related to the change of the minister of defense, the audit of the minister of defense, he has to tell putin how much money is left for the war , whether to stop corruption flows from the ministry defense, what do you think putin expects from him in the first place . Well, look, the fight against corruption, in fact, is what is most dangerous for the normal functioning of the ministry of defense, because it is simply all built on corruption, and this is the interest of individual managers in working there at all, and that is why i believe that bilausov will actually start the fight against corruption, it will create. The risks that production will simply stop there for a certain period of time, because no, no, no one will be there, no one will work, but i believe that this is not the main goal for putin, it is customary for there to be such a certain supervision over what is happening there, but the main thing is that he is betting on the longterm militarization of the economy, and i believe that this. Does not only apply to ukraine, it also applies to future wars that may be there with poland, with the baltic countries and with all others, what worries me the most about this appointment, because the appointment of bilausovo, this determines that this is a treaty war , the war specifically with ukraine, or development in general russia as a state that is destabilizing the situation all around, lets clarify, war in general, war in general, i. I believe that with ukraine, they will bet on the fact that trump will come and there will be some kind of truce there, some kind of balance there, for which they will prepare for the next conflict. And tell me, please, panel, what do you think happened with o, we dont have any, i hope that he will appear, there is already one, what happened to mykola patrish, they even tried to deceive him like that. Number two in russian political leadership, by the way, this is how they once tried to portray sergey ivanov, who became the representative of the president of russia, as the number two person, why on ecology, in fact, on the nature of use, well, first of all, i believe that he never was not the number two person, here it must be explained that the position of the secretary of the Security Council is not the head of the Security Council. Official for putin in the Security Council, but the head of the Security Council is putin himself, and his only deputy is dmitry medvedev, that is , formally medvedev. He is the head of, not his subordinate there, but due to the fact that patroshev has a very large influence, he actually managed the fsb, as well as the paf and other special services of russia, precisely because of that, he had influence, the position of an assistant in general, it is of no use. That is, many assistants, they never see their own there at all, except for one appointment, and there are many of them, i certainly believe that patrushev will have access to the body, and they will communicate with putin, and probably patrushev will somehow continue to supervise there nad nad bortnikov and others. Official, but of course, as an official position, he will not be allowed to do this, and if we talk about the future of the shoigu, we can say that the very appointment of the secretary of the Security Council in a situation where the biggest, most serious representatives will surround him, that he will simply be arrested before his eyes in the ministry of defense, is already two have been arrested in the last week, this basically means that he has lost real hardware influence, or is this an exaggeration, well, of course, for him, this is a substantial demotion, well, ratbes is generally a structure that has formal powers, the minister of defense is a lot of money, a lot of authority, a lot of responsibility, well, its such a prestigious position, and the shaygu has such additional weight in the face of the federal service. Of the militarytechnical department, that is, it is the export of weapons, and i dont know what he will actually have over this service there, because it is separate, but he will supervise it, well , well see, that is, he was given certain, certain levers there , but well, of course, this is a substantial downgrade, but what is the main structure of the russian government, the president ial administration . The government, if not the Security Council, then what . Well, the main political body is the administration of the president , and it is not even the head of the vaino administration, but serhiy kiriyenko, who manages the political sphere, because it is all internal politics and personnel policy, it is governors, it is deputies and, secondly of course, the government, the government in russia now, as they say, is a technocrat there, but i believe that it has much more authority than the formally main body of the government in ukraine, a parliamentary republic in ukraine, and our Prime Minister is an official there generally the main thing a figure, but the mishustian has no more influence than the shmygal, by the way, why did they Start Talking so much about. Mishustyan and dyumin, that mishustian and dyumin could both be putins heirs, dyumin was generally taken from the tula region, to make him some highranking official more seriously than an assistant to the president , and this is going to be such a struggle with a henchman, or is it all white noise, er, more white noise, that is, dzyumin as a governor, he was simple, he was a very bad governor , and its a long time ago wanted to clean up, but it was not clear where, well, they came up with it, and in general, this experiment with the appointment of undertakers there to various positions in the russian government, well, it did not work for putin, this experiment simply failed and dzyumin is one of such people, that is, he is coming back to such a position, he will be closer. To putin than he was as a governor, but again he will not have the authority there, now, accordingly, the constitution of the Russian Federation number two is mishusstin, if something happens to putin, mishusstin becomes acting president of the Russian Federation, and this is a very serious story, that is , you cannot simply replace him with anyone, you cannot just say there that it will be cheap, and there will be someone. This is simply impossible, and according to the law , that is, if there is a revolution, of course, you can arrest for corruption, mr. Yelya, an Investigative Committee can come and arrest the executors for corruption as well. Well, first of all, even if they are arrested, then the acting Prime Minister will become the first vice Prime Minister, and this is now mantorov, by the way, he was bilausov, and secondly, this requires the president s decision for this to happen, and thirdly, if mishustin already becomes acting president , then he will have immunity, just time. The next elections, well, i just remember how it was in turkmenistan, where they also believed that the speaker of the parliament should become the speaker of the parliament after his death in the interim of niyazov, he was simply arrested on the day of the death of the president of turkmenistan, and here we have the dynasty of berda muhamediyem, which governs turkmenistan to this day, and was the founder of everything only the minister of health, so i just mean that in totalitarian countries i expect anything, and youre right, but this is not. Not a totalitarian, but an authoritarian country, and thats why there is a very difficult balance of interests of various clans, its not like in turkmenistan one vertical and thats all, and thats why a person needs formal legitimacy, and it will be looked at quite carefully. How do you perceive these statements by putin that the offensive in kharkiv oblast is just an attempt. The gray buffer zone and that ukraine itself is to blame for shelling it belgrade and that they entered the border areas from belgorod region, how serious are these statements . Well, i believe that the root cause, its true, is the desire to create a buffer zone, because the forces they use there are not enough to capture kharkiv, well, probably there, that is , lets start, there the war will show. Will we be able to, or will we not be able to, the minimum task is the same buffer zone, but even that they are not doing very well there, and here i also believe that there is a second, second task, of all that is happening, this is a psychological war in the west if you look, many western media, they began to say that everything there. Has disappeared, this is where mr. Godarkovsky made a statement, ukraine will not win there, on the contrary, it will lose, there are not enough resources, and thats all, everyone predicts only one thing, that the western the country is beginning to think whether it is necessary to provide ukraine with resources at all, if they all do not lead to victory. Thank you, mr. Ilya, ilya ponomarov, russian opposition leader, mp. Of the state duma of the Russian Federation in 20072016 was on our air, now lets move on to eastern topics. Mykhailo yakubovych, orientalist, candidate of historical sciences, researcher of the oriental studies department of the university of freiburg in germany, we are in touch. I congratulate you, mr. Mykhailo. Good evening, well, we are talking against the background of this story with the fall of the helicopter of the president of the Islamic Republic. Nothing is known yet about his fate, only ayatollah ahameni, the de facto leader of iran, has spoken and said that he hopes they can save raisi and the other iranian officials who were on board that helicopter, but in general, as far as the consequences of some kind of disaster with the president are serious for iran, when in fact he is not the real head of state, what can this. In general change, specifically with raisi there is such a danger that the question will arise in front of the pendulum itself, who will be his successor, because almost 85 years old, the state of health is not very good, it is already necessary to think about the successor, and raisi, since he had a religious education, whether the results of this search for the helicopter are still unknown to us, actually raisi was considered to be the next one. Due to the fact that in i had him religious education, and, in principle, he was suitable even for the next ayatollah, now in the event that something happens to raisi, power passes to the Vice President , who is muhammad mogbar, an old revolutionary, lets say, from the revolutionary guard corps, by the way , the person who was responsible at raisa for relations with moscow, including. Signing agreements on the transfer of drones and everything else, that is, formally, the regime will refrain, but it will be a rather serious challenge, well, lets add here. All kinds of conspiracies, and whatever it did not happen there, whether raisi will survive or not, but i think already tonight there will be statements about the zionist conspiracy, which once again tried to destroy the Islamic Republic there, maybe even somewhere they will mention ukraine, i am sure that something will emerge in the russian media, an interesting region in which it happened, it is essentially west azerbaijan, before that the meeting. With aliyev himself, well, there is enough force on the borders of that region that could try to shoot at this helicopter for any reason, so this is a very important topic, more against the background of such informal negotiations, which the United States is currently conducting with iran, but now they will probably be put on hold, and a new security agreement. Between the United States and saudi arabia, by the way, where the kings health has also deteriorated significantly, so there are quite a lot of such challenges here, in fact, who and how will continue to conduct politics, although, of course , we should not expect global changes here yet. In principle, if we talk about global changes and the influence of the middle eastern situation on them, you generally expect is the end of the war imminent in any realistic perspective . I even expect the beginning of new wars, not that or the transition of this war little by little to other regions, since tensions persist in yemen, well , the palestinianisraeli topic, here it is clear, southern lebanon and so on, it is not possible to dislodge hamas, opposition to the actions of israel and netanyahus government is huge, now there is a question in. Some European Countries about the recognition of palestine, even the question is not that palestine will be recognized there, but how and who will be recognized from that parties, in which borders and so on, well, this is not a simple, difficult step, right th