And provide substantial relief to the middleclass. Joining the panel, wall street journal columnist and Deputy Editor dan hettinger, columnist and manhattan senior fellow jason riley and columnist, mary, 51, 52 votes, not always sure they were going to get them, what turned the tide in the end . Using a seasonal metaphor, you heard of the christmas tree, there were four or five senators who were holding out and i think Mitch Mcconnell very masterfully addressed concerns of each of them by giving them small presence to put under the tree or on the tree so you have Susan Collins, who gets her 10,000 property deduction, property Tax Deduction, medical expense deduction increase, ron johnson really wanted Something Better. Paul senator from wisconsin. For small businesses. And a quite generous deduction for businesses. Each of those things were enough to bring 51 senators on board. Leland paul not pretty, lets be honest. Buying of votes with policy. Why did this succeed where the effort on healthcare failed . The sort answer is this succeeded because of the effort on healthcare failed. Paul Quiet Desperation . This was the Republican Party on the brink. The possibility of failure on the tax reform bill was unthinkable. This party washed up, failed on these two pieces of legislation, and the dire predictions have diminished because they passed this, and going into 2018 looking a lot stronger than they did a month ago. One of the most important things Mitch Mcconnell a compost was preserving the best parts of the reform, the corporate side of this. 20 corporate rate down a year ago would you have believed they got a 20 corporate rate . I would not. To water down, and mike lee putting in an expensive tax credit, nothing for growth and what is worse, to water down the Corporate Tax rate reduction to get those freebies away. It is impressive what Mitch Mcconnell said we would do and republicans will show that they can govern, and have something to run on. Paul what are the perils going ahead . It will go back to both parties, final bill for a vote. What are the big risks here. The good news is a number of provisions, the same in the senate and house bill like 20 corporate rate. What you have differences on, when some tax breaks sunset, when they expire the senate had to sunset a number of them because of the rules to get this through. That makes it easier because they are bound by senate rules, the house has to swallow a little bit of that but there are other things, the house version, four tax brackets, and state and local income Tax Deductions, to increase that, and income for small businesses, the Senate Version is more generous. They got things to work through, the sense of palpable relief is a good sign that people feel this would be an easier lift that initial bills. The estate tax repeal, the house repealed totally, compromising on doubling the exemption from 5 . 5 million to 11 million but it wont be revealed. That is an important conversation to have because this whole tax reform is about getting capital into the market. There are too many people on the republican side who keep talking in terms of jobs and middleclass tax cuts. We want jobs. It is fine. We want jobs with freetrade too but what you do when you do this tax cut and deploy capital in the market is create wealth. You dont know how that wealth is going to be allocated in the market after that. The messaging from republicans has to be this is about making the country wealthier. The worst part of the bill is some of the provisions, Susan Collins such as medical deduction, things like that but we call this cats and dogs, this is the way tax bills get done and you got to do these things to get the best parts of the bill and so far they the worst part is the 1 million mortgage deduction. That is scandalous. Paul the house cut to to half 1 million, dont know if that will stay. Democrats pull out all stops to block the gop tax overhaul from reaching Donald Trumps desk by years end, we will look at the biggest criticisms being offered by taxcut oppon no matter how the markets change. At t. Rowe price. Our disciplined approach remains. Global markets may be uncertain. But you can feel confident in our investment experience around the world. Call us or your advisor. T. Rowe price. Invest with confidence. Tax bill will balloon the deficit by 1. 5 trillion. We have a bill that raises the deficit by 1. 4 trillion. The Nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office says this attack on 1. 4 trillion to the debt in the next we 10 years. Leland democrats voicing concerns the republican tax form plan will both the budget and add to the federal debt, one of the talking points the left is using in its effort to block republicans from getting a bill on Donald Trumps desk by christmas. Earlier i spoke with Tax Foundation president scott hives about the argument against tax reform. Lets take these issues one by one. First, the joint Tax Committees report, dynamic analysis that said it is going to increase the tax reform, increase the economy by a minor amount, 0. 8 , that would only get back one third of this 1. 4 trillion. What do you think of that . The good news is the official scorekeepers on capitol hill say this is a progrowth tax bill that will generate additional economy and revenues but i think they were conservative in their estimates and when we use our Tax Foundation model we find the bill is far more progrowth and delivers far more revenue to bring down the cost of the plan. Reporter your argument, that would raise your model, raising more than 1 trillion quite comfortably. What is the biggest difference between the assumptions in your model and assumptions in a joint Tax Committee . The joint committee uses a closed economy model assuming the United States the closed economy so anytime the government runs deficits that crowd out private borrowing, raises Interest Rates and adds to the borrowing costs and slows the economy. We have an open economy model assuming Global Capital markets wont be affected by a little bit of additional government borrowing which is why our models prove a lot more growth. Paul what about the argument of the deficit that it will increase the deficit by that amount, in the growth estimate which i understand the closed economy model, a Crucial Point you make but what about the growth impact of cutting the corporate rate like the bill proposes, expensing immediately at 100 , you have more growth credits and other models. We think capital matters and taxes on capital matters the most, the most sensitive factor in the economy because it is so mobile, when you lower the cost of capital you increase the amount of investment in the economy raising productivity, wages, living standards, all good for Economic Growth so those are the most positive aspects of the bill. They are the least politically popular but the most progrowth elements. Leland who wants to give a tax break to corporations . On the other hand if you get the economy growing everybody will benefit from the growth that follows it. One of the other complaints you hear from the democrats is equity and distribution, this is, in its tax cut for corporations and passthrough businesses a tax cut for the rich. As you look at the distribution table is that accurate . We have to understand the us tax code is extremely progressive already, the top 1 of taxpayers pays a greater share of the tax burden than the bottom 90 combined. Over the Years Congress has passed these child tax credits and other tax credits that have knocked millions of people off of tax rolls at the bottom so the only people of paying taxes are the wealthy. Almost by definition anytime you try to cut taxes across the board to some extent it will benefit the rich. Paul i am getting emails from people i know in illinois and california and new york and i hear them saying my taxes are going up under these bills because they are getting rid of the state and local Tax Deduction. These are relatively welloff uppermiddleclass taxpayers but most of them are Republican Voters and they are saying are my taxes are going to go up after this bill because theres no real cut, no cut at all in the top rate income tax rate in the house bill, only a one percentage point cut in the Senate Tax Bill so they say i am going to pay hundreds, tens of thousands of dollars more on income. That sound plausible to you . It is possible. If you live in a high tax area with high property taxes and the state with high income taxes, you may pay more and in an odd sort of way, these plans make the tax code even more progressive which is funny to hear democrats complain about this being a tax cut for the rich when eliminating state and local Tax Deduction is one of the more progressive tax plans you can do. Paul it belies the this is a taxcut for the donor class, republican donors, they are the ones complaining about it at least that i hear. I know, that caused consternation in the Republican Caucus especially for republicans that are in blue states but those are very isolated cases. The vast majority of people will get a taxcut, they arent affected by state and local Tax Deduction and will be beneficiaries at the end of the day. Paul net on net, all things considered, you think good corporate reform, much less highquality individual reform. This is a progrowth tax plan. The corporate cuts are the most import elements, they will make the economy grow in the us more competitive, that is the key at the end of the day. Paul pleasure to have you here. Still ahead for a Trump National security adviser Michael Flynn pleading guilty friday to lying to the fbi. What it me the moment a fish is pulled out from the water, its a race against time. And keeping it in the right conditions is the best way to get that fish to your plate safely. Sometimes the product arrives and the cold chain has been interrupted, and we need to be able to identify where in the cold chain that occurred. We took our world Class Network and we developed devices to track environmental conditions. This device allows people to understand whats happening with the location, but also if its too hot, if its too cold, if its been dropped. Its completely unique. If you have a sensor that can keep track of your product, it keeps everybody kind of honest that way. Who knew a tiny sensor could help keep the food chain safe . Paul Donald Trumps former National Security advisor, michelson, pleads guilty to lying to the fbi about a conversation with Russian Ambassador, disclosed he is cooperating with special counsels office as highestranking current or former white house official to be caught up so far. Donald trump tweeting earlier, quote, i had to fire general thing because he lied to the Vice President , he pled guilty, it is a shame because during his actions in the transition were lawful, there was nothing to hide. We are back with dan henninger, jason riley, and kim. Why did he turn. There would be several reasons for it. The central issue of collusion, i suspect mike flynn was essentially broke, very expensive to defend yourself against a federal prosecutor, been in the military his whole life and ran out of money. Secondly it looks like he did lie to the fbi, that is a felony and for whatever reason he said these things to the fbi that remains a history. There may have been other problems for mike flynn like relationships with the turkish government, the work he had done. Larger charges and his son who was working in the company as well could have been a target of Mister Mueller and part of the deal may have been he got his son set aside in all this so my clinton had a distinguished career as a Public Servant for 30 years and now he faces the prospect of going to prison for 6 months. Paul james comey, former fbi director told the House Intelligence Committee in march that his agents decided general flynn had not lied about those meetings and yet now the fbi is saying he did. Do you know what changed . That is what makes this very interesting. What they are saying he lied about is the nature of the conversations he had with the former ambassador and whether he had a followup call. When fbi agents interviewed him, there was reporting at the time and james comey in a private briefing to the House Intelligence Committee said his agent did not believe flynn was lying. He had forgotten these conversations, what was discussed so the fact this is changing makes a strong case that hes trying to cut a deal to forestall being hit with larger charges, theres a question whether he did lie or not. Paul it is clear he is being held to basically provide information going up the chain. Looks like mueller is methodically going about this, he has flipped someone close to trumps inner circle and doesnt look like he is anywhere near done with this. This is not a big development. Paul jared kushner, the president s soninlaw, the senior transition official cited in the Court Document as somebody who talked to flynn when he was talking to the russians. Seems like he is targeting kushner for some kind of similar charge. The idea that he flipped as if he committed a crime and is having to confess to it he was talking to the russians during the transition. Theres nothing wrong with that, he shouldnt have lied about it but paul it will be a crime on the record. It all happened during the transition so completely fine what he did and the idea that they will smoke out kushner because they were planning on how to deal with the russians once donald trump got into office doesnt seem like theres much there. Paul this happened after the election, this is about things that happened in the transition. As our colleague jenkins put it he lied about a noncrime. Lets keep something in my, lying to the fbi is a crime, a prosecutor can indict you. Robert muellers mandate from Rod Rosenstein is not simply to look at collusion which is not a crime but to find evidence that federal crimes were committed. A lot of what we have been talking about paul i understand that but supposed to be about the collusion, the Trump Administration working with the russians to defeat hillary clinton. During the campaign. Paul what evidence do we have that that happened . We have no evidence. What we know is we think mueller had something bigger and that was the threat. Unless you come to this and start talking, that is the concern if you are the white house and why he took this. Paul is there anything you see on the collusion front or during the campaign that shows in these documents . Absolutely not. If you want the cynical view, several experts point this out, what was the Obama Justice department doing interviewing flynn anyway. What he was doing, conversations were entirely legal. Moreover highly likely, we can assume the Russian Ambassador was being monitored by intelligence agencies so they knew the contents of these conversations. If you want to be cynical you can suggest they were going there for Something Like that. There may be something more he knows, we will find out but our job is too fast, when we come back Sexual Misconduct enveloping the media and hollywood now spreading to capitol hill was looking at how i accept i dont bike as far as i used to. I even accept i have a higher risk of stroke due to afib, a type of irregular heartbeat not caused by a heart valve problem. But no matter where i ride, i go for my best. So if theres Something Better than warfarin, ill go for that too. Eliquis. Eliquis reduced the risk of stroke better than warfarin, plus had less major bleeding than warfarin. Eliquis had both. Dont stop taking eliquis unless your doctor tells you to, as stopping increases your risk of having a stroke. Eliquis can cause serious and in rare cases fatal bleeding. Dont take eliquis if you have an artificial heart valve or abnormal bleeding. While taking eliquis, you may bruise more easily. And it may take longer than usual for any bleeding to stop. Seek immediate medical care for sudden signs of bleeding, like unusual bruising. Eliquis may increase your bleeding risk if you take certain medicines. Tell your doctor about all planned medical or dental procedures. Im still going for my best. And for eliquis. Ask your doctor about eliquis. Congressman conyers should be doing. 0 tolerance means consequences for everyone no matter how great the legacy, it is no license to harass or discriminate. Paul the sexualharassment bonfire threatening to engulf capitol hill. That was nancy pelosi calling on john krohn years to resign amid multiple allegations of misconduct, the minority leader calling on ruben keywin to step down after he harassed and aid during his 2016 command as more women come forward to accuse our franken of groping and unwanted kissing. A week ago or 10 days ago nancy pelosi was saying he was an icon who deserved due process, now she is saying he needs to resign. What changed . I think what changed his democrats have been caught up in the very words she used, 0toleranc