Champagne down pennsylvania avenue. There are only two places where americas popping champagne; the white house and the corporate boardrooms including trump tower. The gop tax scam is about bleeding the middle class dry to pad the pockets of Corporate America and the wealthiest 1 . Paul joining the panel, wall street journal columnist and Deputy Editor dan henninger, columnist kim strassel and Mary Anastasia ogrady and editorial page writer kate odell. Why did they succeed on taxes when they failed on health care . Right. That is one question, because you would expect a failure to make it harder to succeed. But i think here the Health Care Failure really focused the minds for the gop that, for them, it was do or die for their majority in 2018 to get a tax bill passed. And it wasnt always clear they would choose do. [laughter] but also i think there was a rougher consensus on what a tax bill should look like where on health care a lot of variety, you know, some wanted to keep entitlements, others wanted a spending cap, and whats the compromise . Paul so, mary, still some philosophical coherence still there for the republicans unlike health care. Some people on the edges did want to turn the tax cut into a more redistributionist tax cut, and that restrained some of the rate cuts on the individual side. But still they got the main stuff done. Yeah. I think, actually, theres a story about how joe manchin, senator from West Virginia paul democrat. Pulled rob portman aside and said, look, well come along with you, but you have to make the Corporate Tax rate 25 . And portman took that back to the republicans, and they said no. I think that shows the level of discipline they decided to adhere to specifically on the Corporate Tax rate. I mean, that was the thing they wanted to get done. Everything else that got done in this was sort of built around that. But, you know, the republicans are different than the democrats, and they the democrats keep saying that there was this, you know, far rightwing extremism, but there is a difference. Democrats believe in, basically, socializing the profits, and republicans believe that you have to create wealth before you try to redistribute it. And their goal here was to change the Corporate Structure so that there would be more wealth creation. That was a goal that they refused to the let go of. Paul and on that target of the Corporate Tax cut, dan, i think youve got to give President Trump credit for saying 20 is what i want. And by setting that goal and saying we dont want to get away from that, he made it harder for the members of congress to do what comes naturally to them, which is to water everything down the get a compromise. It finished at 21, but very close to the target. Yeah, i mean, Congress Needs that kind of template, something to work around. The republicans kind of knew what the traps were in writing tax legislation. I mean, you go back to former ways and means chairman dave camp, i think it was back around 2007, proposed a bill. He was succeeded at ways and means by paul ryan. Theyve been working on this for a long time. Its not as though this was born out of paul right. The eithers. And kevin brady, incredibly patient. But they knew where the dangers were, and they anticipated them. By the end of it, it was the sausage factory, but this was unlike health care which, as kate was suggesting, was an openended freeforall. This was more disciplined. Paul i remember talking to paul ryan at the beginning of this congress, and he said, look, ive already been through the 20 stages of grief in trying to write a tax bill and all the pain involved in giving one taking away one loophole to get a rate cut. And a lot of the members hadnt. But having done that spade work really made a huge difference. And they have worked on this for a decade at least. And, look, i think one thing that got overlooked in all of this is that when it came down to it, people have focused on some of these big deductions that did get saved in the bill. You know, we still have a mortgage interest deduction, still have the Charitable Giving deduction, the compromise that they did on s. A. H. T. , state and local property taxes. But a lot of junk went away. So in that regard, this was a reform. Because with, in the end, that was the only way that they could get, in the end, to those lower rates, was to get rid of a lot of the giveaways and make it a cleaner code. And thats a big victory in this bill as well. Paul kim, what do you make of the relationship between donald trump and capitol hill coming out of this . Do you think its what does it tell us about that lesson . Because remember, they didnt work very well together on health care, but on in this one they did. No. The outpouring of love is something to behold from both directions. [laughter] paul some of its phony, i must say. [laughter] i would say so too. But what look, the Important Message that has come out of this is i think both sides have wondered at times be theres value in working with each other. And what this has shown is that there is value. That the entire party benefits. So those republicans who have been a little wary of this president , theyre still going the go after him when hes off course, but i i think some of them were worried that, you know, it wasnt to their benefit to work with him at all. Theyve changed their mind, and donald Trump Realizes theres no benefit of calling Mitch Mcconnell and paul ryan a bunch of establishment phonies. They can get stuff done. Paul and not a single democrat, kate. How do you explain that . Well, i think in some sense the party has moved left since 1986 when democrats helped write the the 1986 bill. Not alone just pass it. You had bill bradley from new jersey who was proposing top rates for exchanging carveouts which is now, basically, essentially a republican position. Paul but even in 2003 2001, rather, a dozen democrats worked with george bush. Right. I think democrats are betting on even in a better economy peoples personal distaste for trump and the high intensity of the resistance to him is going to make them turn out and vote to for democrats. So they dont want anything to do with the tax bill. I do think that republicans would be smart to manage expectations. I think one big mistake the president s making is to talk about the stock market. Paul yeah. Because the stock market is going to behave as its going the behave [laughter] and theres a lot of external factors that could affect it. Paul sure. And that will not mean that the tax reform was not good. But if he ties them together, that will damage peoples opinion of the reform. Of. Paul i think one thing we know, mary, the stock market is going to go down at some point. [laughter] and you dont want to be hostage to that prettily. Well see next politically. Well see next year. Democrats are relying on opinion polls because the press has been very negative about this. 17 of people think theyre not going to get a tax cut. About 80 will. And as that develops over the course of next year, i think attitudes towards this bill are going to change, and democrats are going to be standing there saying we were against the whole thing. Paul all right. Still ahead, as company like at t, comcast and wells fargo react to the gop tax plan, well take a closer look at its Economic Impact in 2018 and this is what its all about, jamie helping small businesses. Damage your vehicle . We got you covered. [ glass shatters ] Property Damage . Thats what general liabilitys for. What . injured employee . Ow. Workers comp helps you pay for a replacement. Whats happening . This is carla. Hows it going . And if anything comes up, our experts are standing by. Boo were going to see something thats very special. Were bringing the entrepreneur back into this country. Were getting rid of all the knots and all the ties, and were going to youre going to see what happens. And, ultimately, what does it mean . It means jobs. Jobs, jobs, jobs. Paul President Trump touting the economic benefits of the republican tax cut, promising theyll create jobs and bring entrepreneurs back to the United States. Scott hodge is president of the Tax Foundation which released its analysis of the bill this week. Among the highlights, over the next decade the plan will boost gdp by 1. 7 , raise wages by 1. 5 and add 330,000 new jobs. So, scott hodge, welcome. Good the you back. Thank you, paul. Pallone im looking paul im looking at that Economic Impact, and, you know, its not all that large, and its not as large as some of the predictions, your analysis of some of the proposals as opposed to this final legislation. What happened in the end to reduce your expectations . Well, paul, there are really two economic stories here. Ones the long term, and the other is the short term. And as you know, so many provisions in this bill have been sunset after about seven years that the longterm prospects for growth are quite small. And youre seeing it there in those results. Thats really the result of only cutting the Corporate Tax rate. Now, in the short term because we have five years of temporary full expensing for capital investment, we are seeing a great deal more growth. And that is, in fact, we see the economy growing instead of 2 growth, about 2. 42. 5 growth over the next couple of years. So really unless we see a lot of those temporary provisions made permanent, were going to see a lot of this taper off at end of the next decade. Paul okay. But as you know, congress is always elected every two years, a new congress, so they can do what they want with the tax cold, and i guarantee you they will. Sure. Paul but if youre saying some of those provisions like expensing, if thats extended, then youre going to get the greater growth in the future too. As a good example of that, we modeled this plan as though it were permanent and found it would boost the longterm level of the economy by 4. 7 . Paul okay. So about three times what we got because of all the temporary provisions. So theres a great deal of promise here if all of its made permanent. Paul okay. One of the reasons they didnt make it permanent is they had to fit the numbers inside that tenyear budget window that congress has concocted for itself. Exactly. Paul so they can revisit this policy and extend those if need be. I want to talk to you about some of the criticisms leveled at this bill, one of which is that this is really a tax increase on the middle class as nancy pelosi says. Is that true . [laughter] no. In fact, everybody gets a tax cut in the middle class. In fact, even the liberal Tax Policy Center brookings said this plan will knock over four million people, low income people, off the tax rolls, increasing the amount of nonpayers to about 48 of all filers. Thats incredible. That means, actually, this plan is much more progressive than what the left is owning up to. Paul okay. Now, people also say, well, look, the business Corporate Tax cuts here are permanent, but the middle class tax cuts go away, therefore, it favors business. Well, as you know, lower Corporate Tax rates eventually translate into higher productivity and higher wages. Theres a ton of Economic Research to show that thats true. And so were actually showing that wages will rise by at least 1. 5 , probably even more as we go on through the next decade. Paul all right. Another criticism, is this an incentive as the Washington Post wrote for businesses to move capital overseas because of the new, basically, a minimum, corporate minimum tax . Goodness no. I think that the 21 Corporate Tax rate will be a tremendous incentive for companies to bring a lot of those activities back. In fact, i think itll bring a lot of activity from foreignowned companies to the United States. I think the people that ought to be worried here are the politicians in germany and france and japan who have extremely high Corporate Tax rates now. Weve leapfrogged over them from becoming one of the least competitive countries to now one of the most competitive tax systems in the entire world. Paul in fact, theres a study out of germany from last week that suggested exactly that, and i suspect youre going to the see germany and france and maybe other countries cut their Corporate Tax rates as well to stay competitive. Now, the other big criticism thats leveled here is the deficit. Its basically saying, you know, its a 1. 5 trillion formal number that they allowed under the tax bill to increase the deficit. And some people say its going to be much larger than that because of the sunsetting tax provisions that we discussed earlier. Whats your response to that . Well, even with a modest Economic Growth that our models suggest that this plan will generate, its going to generate about 5 trillion worth of new gdp over the next decade, and thats in turn going to produce about a trillion dollars worth of new tax revenues or for the federal government. So the overall cost of this plan will call from about 1. 5 trillion to less than 500 billion. Thats 50 billion a year in order to get 5 trillion worth of new gdp. I think thats a pretty good trade. Paul but is there a chance that, in fact, it could actually generate more revenue, if we get growth up to 3 for two, three, four years, its going to be even higher than that. Yes. Especially if theyre made permanent, we are going to see growth continue, and thats all good for federal treasury and the economy. Paul thank you, scott, appreciate it. When we come back, despite strong sign that is the gop tax bill help the economy, polls show that americans are less than enthusiastic about the plan. So can republicans sell it to voters ahead of the 2018 is this a phone . Or a little internet machine . It makes you wonder shouldnt we get our phones and internet from the same company . Thats why Xfinity Mobile comes with your internet. You get up to 5 lines of talk and text at no extra cost. So all you pay for is data. See how much you can save. Choose by the gig or unlimited. Xfinity mobile. A new kind of network designed to save you money. Call, visit, or go to xfinitymobile. Com. Retail. Under pressure like never before. And its connected technology thats moving companies forward fast. Ecommerce. Real time inventory. Virtual changing rooms. Thats why retailers rely on comcast business to deliver consistent Network Speed across multiple locations. Every corporate office, warehouse and store near or far covered. Leaving every competitor, threat and challenge outmaneuvered. Comcast business outmaneuver. What this represents is a promise that each and every one of us made to the American People last year. It is a promise that is kept today. We have a simple message for our republican friends republicans will rue the day they passed this bill, and you can bet democrats will make sure of that. Paul republicans and democrats on capitol hill spinning very different tales of tax cut. So how will the bills passage play out in 2018 . Were back with dan henninger, kim strassel, kate odell and wall street journal columnist william mcgurn. All right, dan, can republicans sell this thing, and what do they have to do to sell it . Well, its not as though theyre trying to sell merely an idea. They have passed an enormous tax reform, the entire tax code. They have reduced tax rates, indeed, on the middle class, on corporations. Youve got perhaps 2. 5 trillion of overseas money being repatriated back to the United States. The economic effects, i think, are going to be pretty significant, and theyre going to have to wait until at least mid year to see whats happening. And then theyre going to have to be able to cite that as a result of what they did in passing this bill. Against that we just saw tax Chuck Schumer saying this is a disaster. There is an almost mindlessness to the democrats opposition on this bill. Theyre the ones who presided over less than 2 growth for eight years of the obama years. Youve come up to the possibility of rewriting the tax code, and they say we will not participate not only will we not participate, they have no alternative other than to oppose what is going on. Paul paychecks in february withholding will increase, kate. Presumably, that will help if you actually have a job and you get more takehome pay. But why is the bill so unpopular now . Well, i mean, weve had press coverage that, as weve discussed, has been very skewed, and people perceive theyre getting a tax increase when theyre not. And, yes, well sort that out in february. I think also it must be fun to be Chuck Schumer and get to predict armageddon and have no one hold you accountable when it happens paul or if it doesnt. Excuse me. The left is making this argument corporations have said, hey, were going to give 1,000 bonuses to some of our employees, and the left saying, hey, whats 1,000 . That tells you more about the worlds they live in than it does the gop. Paul pretty extraordinary, at t, 1,000 bonus for 200,000 employees, comcast for another 100,000 employees. A lot of companies starting to do this. And the response is, oh, well, you know, who cares . Thats just p. R. , well, a 1,000 check, elle take it. Right. I think that gets to the real question for 2018. Its not the political question. A lot of people that would normally vote democratic put donald trump in office because they thought he was going to recover the economy in some way and make their lives better. And the question is whether they feel that. And this 1,000, for families or, you know, for a mom or dad saying this might be a new tv or piano lessons for someone, its really foolish, i think, to dismiss. And if you look at the democratic i mean, the party says their stuff, but you were a Foo