Partner Mitch Roschelle and jessica and chief strategist david, welcome one and all. Good morning. Jeff, already on the way to the polls. [laughter] dagen we got another poll the quinnipiac comes out. Fantastic, bring it on. Dagen we talk about polls because its interesting, thats why. Also on deck attorney general from the state of North Carolina jack to talk about the states concerns over vaping and what North Carolina is doing, partner to talk china, pennsylvania congressman and member of house labor to veteran affairs and chief of staff to Vice President mike pence marc short on trade and former fed official wrote the resistance among former fed officials, i will leave it at that. Lets look at futures, 44point gain, gains across at the moment amid more uncertainty of any trade deal between United States and china, the Chinese Foreign ministry not aware of any weekend phone calls between china and u. S. Trade representatives, President Trump said there were two calls at the g7 summit, counselor to the president Kellyanne Conway to talk to martha on story last night weighing on on whether a deal would be reached with president xi . The president is open to continuing talks and negotiations, hes made that very clear, this is about trade and protests in hong kong, we see how it is last year. The president doesnt mind waiting if its a better deal for america and in the meantime, he think that is tariffs are working and japan at the g7, this is a huge trade agreement. Dagen mitch, what do you make of this . Where do we go from here . Theres absolutely no transparency whatsoever. In an effort to be transparent the president is tweeting but muddying the waters considerably its 9. The fact of the matter theyre confused and treating it like white noise and low volume in the markets, theyll be bigger things, no transparency, markets like transparency and almost throwing their hands in, thats probably safer bet than making deal. Dagen i want to bring something that Jon Hilsenrath has talked about several times this week, yesterday and even monday, ceos are sitting down in september to plan their budgets for the following year and if theres uncertainty, if they are unsure about the road ahead, how will that Impact Business investment which already fell in the second quarter, factory activity contracting in august in the United States and also hiring and so these are questions that you cant even answer at its showing up in some of the numbers, if you look at revisions for s p 500, they have been falling since september last year long before the trade dynamic started. 177 a year ago, now 10, we will be down year on year, part of the problem the market contraction that we are getting from good news, rising wages but i think ceos are resetting expectations, i think the likelihood of trade deal is not going to happen before 2020. I think the calculus on president xi has been to push closer and closer to 2020, drag your feet on the key issues like ip theft, cybersecurity and staterun economy that continues to defy all norms, he wants to negotiate with the other side of the aisle and hoping for a political win there. Dagen if you listen to some of the candidates, Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders, they are very close to President Trumps ideas on trade and they kind of will say, Elizabeth Warren said something like, i dont believe in negotiating trade deals by a tweet, something to that effect, paraphrasing, of course, their idea on taking on china because large majority of americans think china is unfair in trade practices when in general they are in favor of free trade, so its hard for the candidates differentiate themselves from this. Its definitely tricky especially for farleft candidates, one of the main reason that is Bernie Sanders and donald trump were sharing any voters, right, kind of rustbelt union voters that want tough talk on trade, that said, the candidates have got to figure out a china platform differentiated on trade war. If you saw Amy Klobuchar join Chris Wallace and pushing her on china, trying to distill what it is thats different about a democratic policy in terms of dealing with a mysterious regime as you mentioned there and total lack of transparency and you havent gotten really solid enough answers and people know that they want Something Different than how President Trump is executing this, its hurting americans, we pay for tariffs and i wish democrats would advocate policies. Dagen one thing i will say about hurting americans, theres a lot of estimates about the cost that is would be shouldered by american households, a thousand dollars per household. Former ceo of toy are us was with us, its now practice if youre a company and youre not doing something about trying to offset tariffs and offset production that youre importing from china, i think that those estimates are 2 to 3 to even 5 times too high. Companies really work to mitigate any cost rather than passing them onto consumers, i dont think its a big deal right now in terms of tariffs. I spoke to somebody on the long drive, importer from china, supply chain is china, he cant get out of there, everything is there and he said he cant pass the costs along because he sales big retailest that will not pay more money. Dagen theres the issue do you get lower wages or do you stop passing along wage increases to your employees or you lay people off, these are all questions i raised. I think its as ceo today you will think hard to commit to that part of the world, sometimes billions of dollars and decades in the making, they will not make the mistake twice. Political calculus changed in the United States. Dagen also the companies and executives are realizing the American People are not on board with this, they are finally doing the right thing for americans rather than using as Corporate Tax break, if you will by importing goods produced in china. Bill wrote oped, the fed shouldnt enable donald trump. Presents threat to u. S. And Global Economy to the feds independence and ability to achieve employment and inflation objectives, if goal is to achieve best longterm economic outcome fed officials should consider how decisions will affect the political outcome in 2020. Federal reserve had to fire back, the fed reserve policy decisions are guided solely by congressional mandate to maintain price stability and maximum employment. Political considerations play absolutely no role. Mitch, this makes jay powells job harder and it looks like bill dudley is campaigning to be the next fed chief because this is just beyond comprehension that he would make such a political statement. And if the point is to not politicize, this guy is 100 politicizing. The fed needs to be independent, no question about it. Thats the way our market works and i think they are independent. I obviously disagree with doing that, it opens up a whole set of conversation that is we shouldnt be having, i will say a little bit in defense of argument being made there, the president has politicized, ordered the fed to do his bidding, i dont know who the bigger threat to the United States of america, president xi or jay powell, i mean, thats the kind of rhetoric thats so dangerous that was basely basically it. Dagen this is calling on members of the fed to act. Hes essentially calling on the fed to sit back and allow recession to happen. Thats what i find its clear now that we look back to last year when trump started talking about this, not only policy mistake, what they are doing this year they are actually trying to inwind the mistakes from last year, they were devastating. We were together for a number on friday, looking at the tweets that were coming out versus what jay powell had said and what jay powell said was not bad, wasnt bad news about the economy and start going after him personally and starting to amp up the trade war with china via tweet, not justifying what was said in that dagen but if you believe in an independent fed, then you do not want official who was in favor of all the bondbuying that propped up all president obamas economy among other initiatives at the fed, he just left in 2018 and if if you believe in independent fed, this exdude is making hard to do their job, basically attack the Federal Reserve more because their weird psycho dynamics of saying things to insight the president. People pants on fire about the rhetoric but their rhetoric is even worse. Im not sure that their rhetoric is even worse. Dagen in this instance. The fed did distance themselves as far as they could from the comment. Dagen i wish we could have a little hear what they actually said. [laughter] dagen yeah, exactly, lets talk about real transparency, lets put in cameras. [laughter] dagen opioid deal, Perdue Pharma reportedly ready to settle thousands of lawsuits, up to 12 billion, the family behind the company could give up ownership, details ahead, wild weather wash, Tropical Storm dorian slams into the caribbean as puerto rico braces for impact, the forecast next. Kevin, meet your father. Kevin Kevin Kevin KevinKevin Kevin KevinKevin Kevin Kevin trusted advice for life. Kevin, hows your mom . Life well planned. See what a Raymond JamesFinancial Advisor can do for you. Val, vern. Im off to college and im not gonna be around. Im worried about my parents retirement. Oh, dont worry. Voya helps them to and through retirement. Dealing with todays expenses. Like college. While helping plan, invest and protect for the future. So theyll be okay. Without me . Um. And when we knock out this wall imagine the closet space . Yes oh hey, son. Yeah, i think theyll be fine. Voya. Helping you to and through retirement. Dagen Tropical Storm dorian taking aim at puerto rico, Cheryl Casone has more, cheryl. Cheryl President Trump has declared state of emergency, Tropical Storm dorian heads right to puerto rico, allow quicker federal aid to help island to recover, dorian left mess of island of martin, heavy rains, washing out entire roads, look at the pictures weve gotten from there, the storm eventually on track to hit florida over the weekend, one weather model is showing it could pack Hurricane Force winds when arrived at the sunshine state, we shall see. Turn your attention to google now, former engineer aztec giant , 33 counts alleged stolen information from Google Parent Company and took it to uber, pleaded not guilty in san jose, hes free on bail right now, new data ahead official public offering, major financial losses, the companys net loss of 2019, 245. 7 million, that is sharply higher from nearly 48 million in 2018, fell ipo in june, another unicorn startup valued at more than a billion dollars. And looks like political message didnt get far as she would have liked, ratings hit alltime low, thats down from 2 and a quarter million from last year. We said this i think dagen, all award shows are down in ratings and political, coincidence, i think not. Dagen on every award show and have perform incredible message for all women, all people about finding beauty in yourself and shes an incredible artist, popup shop in my neighborhood that i have not gone in with new album. Two or three songs im listening, amazing. My mom is going to see her in tampa in a few days and performing and coming to our big festival, headliner september 27th, we are really excited to have her huge. Monet did it last year. [laughter] you know someone with influence. Dagen i dont know anybody of influence other than you. [laughter] dagen quickly paleton, what do you think, at least they are recurring revenue stream in line . Installed base matters and they have a Huge Installed base. We have it at our gym, fabulous tool, here is where i take the issue dagen im waiting for the but. One vote for me, one vote for you, 20 votes for them, this is how corporate insiders maintain control after their sell their stock. Dagen when will that disappear, i do not know. Coming up cosco chaos, massive crowd storm china store opening causing traffic nightmare and forcing the store to close for the day. 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Mix with unlimited, and switch it up at anytime so you only pay for what you need. Its a different kind of Wireless Network designed to save you money. Save up to 400 a year on your wireless bill. Plus get 250 back when you buy a new samsung note. Click, call or visit a store today. Dagen welcome back, futures are pointing to a mixed open modest open, if you will, we do have plus signs, 5point gain on dow futures after markets finished lower yesterday, dow back optimism over u. S. China trade deal this as the yield curve, this is critically important, the difference between the 2year and the 10year is inverted. The 2year yield higher than 10year invert today deepest level in more than a decade, this is fueling fears of a recession, the 3month and 10year inversion has been ongoing for more than 3 months. Joining us now the guy at merrick solutions, scott shellady, scott, good to see you. Good morning. Dagen scott, what you make about the yield curve inversion and it was actually a trending topic on twitter last night which Mitch Roschelle was tweeting about . Well, its interesting to see that the general public now starting to wake up and learn about it, but i dont think its anything, generally speaking, yes, can mean a recession, 2 years which is not right around the corner number one, but a lot of isnt our own doing, with all the other bonds and negative Interest Rates around the world is weighing in longend as well. Victim of success and inverted yield curve, im not worried about it because it should be inverted right now with whats happening around the world, now if we were in own vacuum and we didnt have to worry about everything else, i dont think it would be as serious but the used to follow say 1955 with play books, since 2008 when we started with quantitative easing and fed in back pockets and flooding the world with cash, lute of the things dont hold true like they used to. Dagen right, i will point out since late 70s, mitch can correct me if im wrong, the yield curve inverted 7 times and only in four of those instances did it result in a recession, some months out, as you said about 2 years, lets talk about stocks versus bonds, when you look at the 30year yield thats dropped before the yield on s p by 500 for the First Time Since 2009, when whats does that say about attractiveness of stock here, scott . Well, it should start to get more attractive as you see the 10year, make run at half percent if the world keeps doing what they are doing and surely make look stocks look better, we have europe in serious negative Interest Rate environment and just not working, all the things that we are throwing are really only place holders for true growth, hoping around the corner sometime soon, we dont know how to grow anymore especially europe, while the u. S. Is doing okay, the bond market is more corrected about our economy than stock market is and also another jab that they will have to worry about himself, will get the president reelected and we are talking quantitative easing and rate cuts, those two things dont go together, i still think the bond market is the one thats telling us the truth now. Scott, good morning, its mitch, one of the things that i worry about is investors chasing yield and are there any sectors that are whether be utility that look bubbly because investors are chasing yields . Well, i was just talking about, i think investors will chase yields everywhere and i think thats dangerous and i hate to say it 1 and a half percent will probably look expensive in 6 to 12months time. Thats okay, look what we have done, all the work that we have done on equity market, its okay if we back off a little bit here, i think its fine, i dont want to see a quick selloff like we had last december, so i think that theyre going to run to the equity market which is probably a false and bond market will be the safe place to stay in shortterm until we get some of this cappulation. Dagen curving the teen vaping epidemic, we will speak with the attorney general of North Carolina trying to reverse this trend and Rob Gronkowski new venture could put any future work with the n