Down to them, thats where we infractions, that in the obama administration, was deemed not could start to see our initial pushback. On the other hand, its all fair, not right. They lost, time and time again. About having the job. If youve got the job, your now, appealing to the wto to fix wages are going up its not going to happen at this, do something, sort of get least until another year. Neil whats not . Any sort of price hike for this whole trade thing off the the consumer. For it to actually have an ledge. We are far from there. Then the British Development we impact on the consumer, the told you about. Retailer would have to not right now there is secondally absorb it. Not a majority of conservative the vendor would not have to absorb it. Government. Two key leaders opted out. Neil its american retailers and american vendors who are which means Boris Johnson, say a absorbing it. Its a misnomer for the president to say the chinese are paying for this. Miracle roll of the dice here is embattled leader to put it they are directly trying to mildly. All of these developments shield these guys from that but american entities are paying for concurrently right now, boeing this, right . They are. But we are also talking about having its own set of problems retailers who have a global getting the 737 max planes out, presence as well. We are not just talking about whats happening same store when, if ever, no ones guess. Sales wise in the United States. Neil john, much ado i dont well go item by item with you. Think she said about nothing, first with Jackie Deangelis to but not nearly the something we sort out this rather sordid made the out to be. Start to the month of september consumer, twothirds of the trading. Economy keeps hearing trade war, jackie. Reporter good afternoon to you, brexit problems, slowing china neil. As you mentioned china trade economy, slowing global economy, definitely weighing on the slowing u. S. Economy, market. Manufacturing numbers were not that is one piece of the story. China p all that great that just came wto, also imposition of the out, and a certain kind of tariffs. There was market expectation psychology builds in the marketplace and the consumer may something would happen, they be beginning to pull back. Wouldnt go through, in fact they did. That started pressure this look, the fed sees something in morning. Add to that, manufacturing data the numbers and decided to cut that came out from the institute rates and the consumer for supply management. That was the month of august. It was under the neutral reading [ inaudible ] ahead right now of 50. That is a contraction. It is the lowest weve seen but over time, we have seen psychology take effect that is since early 2016, making market perhaps not based in the numbers and based necessarily in reality watchers very nervous. But is based in the talk out now, because of the tariffs, there. Neil this market economy is youre seeing certain categories always defied on the upside. Trading lower, like chips for i will point out something which example. Those are stocks with china you did in the break, after all exposure or apparel makers. Those are ones being hit from the backandforth, the fact of some of the latest tariffs. The matter is we are within 2 , but at the same time, it is not 3 of our highs on these just that, it is also averages. Manufacturing exposure. Thats not to say these 1 plus lets look at the biggest losers swings we had in august, i think on the dow. We had 11 such days like that, you have got boeing, arent a little heartstopping. But where are we going here . Caterpillar, goldman sachs, the volatility is clearly chevron, energy seeing a big starting to have an effect. Having said that, we are at less drop today and also 3m. Than 5 off our alltime high. Apple is lower on the list. The question is why. I would submit the big answer to trading in the red today, that has an impact on the dow as that is inversion that most well. With the volatile august line people are talking about, not the inversion between different us, everybody taking a sigh of maturities of Treasury Bonds but the inversion between the yield relief to a certain extent, on stocks and the yield on the tenyear bond. Thats now about 2 of the wondering what happens in stocks, 1. 5 on the tenyear, december. According to dow jones market thats extraordinarily wide in date, since 1930 the average favor of stocks so its hard to s p 500 index is down and dow is make the case neil when thats happened in the past, i was asking before, what has happened . Over the next 12 to 36 months, it tilts the playing down a quarter of a percent and field in favor of stocks. Nasdaq falling on average half a it doesnt always work, of course, you know, whats next percent. Market watchers, analysts step, stocks could start cutting investors saying buckle up, their dividends. Its unlikely. Neil. I think certainly it fosters neil to put it mildly. To put that in perspective as confidence for those looking for more income now, more growth jackie pointed out, the time down the road. Neil then you have to be drawn frame is the crapshoot. To what is a volatile, you know, if youre looking over the last investment. 50 or more years, september is the most problematic month of right . Whatever cushion you get with all. If youre looking 10 years the dividend, you are dealing with the craziness of the however, september has been a market. Gainer for the markets, on i dont know how many people have the stomach to be able to deal with that. Average increasing 8 to. 9 of a as much as we can sit here on percent. Pick your poison, or not so air and tell people exactly. Poison. Hillary vaughn on china, fighting fire with fire, tell people to save longterm but thats the sticking point. Ironically going to the same neil you mention, you know, the organization which it had not a whole lot of success in the psychology here and you could past. Hey, hillary. Make the point the markets have reporter neil, investors are to climb a wall of worry. Waiting for china to formally file the lawsuit through the we are seeing more data that World Trade Organization after a seems to be hiccupping and that initial round of tariffs took effect on 150 chinese imports seems to be not necessarily into the u. S. Spokesperson for recessionary but certainly the Chinese Commerce ministry, slowing in momentum. Play that out and play out other that it violates the chinas legitimate rights and interests. Anecdotal information. Foreigners who arent big the president responding to talk investors in our real estate that the trade talks between the two countries have been at a anymore. Where does this go . Foreigners who arent coming stalemate. He thinks china wants to wait it in with capital. Out, to deal with a different certain indicators beginning to slow down and it shows in the administration who might be numbers. Softer on trade. He says china cannot delay a employment at that point would begin to slow as well. Deal because they cant afford you see fewer jobs created. It. The president threatens to be thats going to be a bad signal tougher on china if he wins if it happens to the market. Reelection. He is not planning on backing and you get a psychology within down tough trade talks with the consumer that says hunker other trading partners, tweeting this, for all the geniuses out down, maybe not take that vacation, maybe not spend on there, many who have been in that retail item, maybe stay other administrations taken to the cleaners by china, they want me to get together with the eu and others to go after china home and just husband your trade practices. Resources. I dont think that the average remember the eu and all treat us american is necessarily going to jump into stocks because of that very unfairly on trade. 50 basis point difference in also will change. Yield on the dividend versus the huawei is accusing the u. S. Of bond. I think most people will look at terrorizing its employees, whats happening to the bonds launching cyberattacks on its and hearing your commentary and networks, using every tool in others saying this is a bad their book to harass and disrupt indicator when theres an inversion in the bond market and its business after reports that the doj is looking into even thats going to stick more allegations of tech theft neil the counter to that is by the company. Huawei didnt offer evidence to back up their claims. That we might not have an inverted yield curve as much as they said this in part of their a flattening one. Grievances, that they listed gone are the days where we miss online, quote, we strongly that, i guess, because flat is condemn the maligned concerted better than inverted. Effort by the u. S. Government to what are we looking at here . Shorter, medium, longer term discredit huawei. Vice president mike pence talked with the irish Prime Minister rates are all roughly the same. Thats right. During his trip about huawei obviously your concern is that saying that the u. S. Still sees thats signaling a recession down the road. Them as a very serious national but the flipside of course is it could actually be signaling security threat. Recession overseas. I have a very frank and and where the rates are really low, of course, is germany, direct conversation with negative three quarters on the tenyear german bond, the economy is slowing dramatically vradkar, about the United StatesUnited States profound concerns over there. That a chinese neil they all go into recession, we cant ignore that. Telecommunications company, we cant ignore that, but which is required by chinese law again, you know, the beauty of the United States is it is kind to give their government access of a selfcontained system. People talk about the price to any date that they acquire. Increases for the chinese goods. Thats less than 10 of what reporter neil, that americans buy is coming from china. Conversation is exactly what huawei also included or echoed its not a huge factor. Neil all right. Concerns about saying they think now, in the 18, 19 months since that the u. S. Is trying to get this trade war started, we have particularly their european really not seen anything move, customers to ban together and join in on the u. S. Huawei ban. Right . I mean, the markets are kind of unchanged from that level. Neil. Neil thank you very much, retailers if anything are down from those levels. Hillary vaughn. I keep talking about the irony here for china appealing to the if we go another 12, 14 months, wto you might recall during the say we dont get a trade deal at all, then what . Obama administration, actually before that in the Bush Administration the chinese and so i feel that the consumer a americans fought it out with the little bit is immune to what is wto being the arbiter here. Going on. I mean, i know you talk about the u. S. Won almost every single the psychology and that certainly has an effect longterm. Case. It was argued by the World Trade Organization that china did cheat again and again and again, however, i think the consumer is it was reprimanded again and now hip to the point that they are that these are talking again. Shows you the length china points. You know, i was looking at the exasperated with this back and chinese peoples daily and kind forth battle with president of what they were putting out trump is willing to go even to there. Neil i figured you were. The same folks that forever doing my research here. Dinged it. I was looking at the points they we have market watchers scott were trying to make about this martin, Rebecca Waller is. Trade war, and it is exactly the try wg points meant to scare the chinese government. What you make of the september, i think neil the fact that they are it hasnt been that bad. We think of october as freakier willing to do that more vociferously than they had, or scarier month but how does this look to you now . There was a piece in the wall october has halloween in it, street journal today saying neil. That is one thing. I like september. I got married during september. About their military power and they will behave accordingly. Im usually happy during that does that scare you . Of course, it would scare month. Overall, it is manipulation with anyone. We have to look at what the chinese economy is doing right statistics. September 11th now. These talking points they keep unfortunately, september couple putting out, ahead of the said s decades back. That was terrible on stocks. I will tell you, to start the month, it isnt good neil, were going to sue the United States via the world trade still in square one or space organization. One, when it comes to the new neil there was a little irony to that. Refiring of the china trade going back to the same talks. Organization you know, one lead to me so far what are they talking about . Today, has been over the last and there was an accusation that we had launched a cyberattack. Couple weeks is Interest Rates. The bond market is telling us neil on huawei. That something is wrong. On huawei. The bond market is telling the neil huawei has gotten 50 plus contracts for its 5g technology. Fed they need to cut rates, if you look on the curve, rates are they are going undeterred. What do you think of that . Down, fed funds rate is it is an enormously Important Company for the chinese. Overnight rate. Lower than 10year bond and 30 thats why its also a big year bond. Target for the United States. If the fed doesnt get out to this is a stateowned enterprise cut rates soon i think were in a whole heap of trouble on the in essence. Its getting all sorts of s p. Neil rebecca, it is interesting, the market is always dealing with the pluses subsidies and has operative word, stateowned. And minuses, the ebb and flow of the tie with the government and the government takes very seriously whats happening to the whole china trade talks. Huawei. It even took in relatively look, the other uncertainty, the spirited fashion what is going consumer i would probably agree on in britain right now, that with you that most people are Boris Johnson could be facing a inured to this trade spat with fight within his own conservative tory party. China. They just wont follow all the details and back and forth. I think what rattled them what frankly, there hasnt been any is going on in this country, movement for all the efforts the administration has tried to manufacturing slowdown, lowest apply to this. There has been no substantive in three years and a sign maybe give by the chinese. If anything, theres been retrenchment. Were hiccupping a little. What do you think . I think so, neil. This is the first time weve so probably nothing is going to seen some internal u. S. Data change. But just the discussion of it, that the trade tariff is taking and what you were talking about effect on u. S. Manufacturing. Earlier with jerry, the obviously the market is going to we have a lot. Political complexion right now in the United States, the a amalgamation, hurricane going uncertainty, whos going to be the next president of thegoing s on labor days, businesses close, are kind of weighing on people and the markets as well. Brexit on the version of who knows what, we have escalation in moments when theres great uncertainty, people take a step of tariffs in september back and say i think im just historically not great month if going to wait to see what happens. You look past the 50 years, not neil all right. We will come back, take a quick break, but just to put this in just the past 10. If you look at all these things. Perspective, the president has already prepared himself for the neil investors can i look at possibility that this sputtering for two seconds not to have news continues, saying that a lot of it is the fault of companies to digest . All those things will make the that are blaming the trade snafu market be volatile for the next 30 to 60 days. For a lot of problems of their own making, akin to retailers who would blame bad weather for a bad quarter but never credit absolutely we should expect it. The sun if it was a good neil scott, were two or 3 quarter. Leaving that aside, he has also targeted the Federal Reserve. From alltime highs ended in is he prepreparing you for the july for all major market slowdown to come . After this. Averages. You can say it has been an this is the age of expression. Aggressive seesaw back and forth but bottom line not all that far from the record levels. What do you make of that . Yeah. All this work and weve gone nowhere. The market has been running on a treadmill. What is interesting, neil, certainly too, the market, s p 500, still up midteens on the year, total return. Neil right. That is not all bad. If you look back 18 months weve kind of been here before. We had a couple of similar peeks in the s p, give or take 50 points or so, the market pulled back and rebounded. Goes to show you, that you do have the pullbacks i believe the u. S. Consumer, i was out as rebecca mentioned labor day shopping, to my regret, the stores were full. Buying things for the kids. Bouts something for myself. The consumer is very strong. Global economy is weighing down on things. That is why you probably see volatility continue here. Neil Consumer Confidence is still relatively strong, to his point. When you look at that, rebecca, the fact that august was an everyone has something to say. Unusually volatile month, 11 but in a world full of talking, trading days of swings of 1 or more, it was an aberration. Shouldnt somebody be listening . Do you buy that august was more of an aberration than it was an so. Lets talk. Indictment on this recovery or we are edward jones. This bull market . With one Financial Advisor per office, were built for hearing whats important to you. I do, neil. The true fundamentals for the one to one. Edward jones. Its time for investing to feel individual. Nights are still there. Bond yields are depressed long term because people are coming here to the United States. Where else are they going to go . Still have negative Interest Rates around the world. Well obviously get employment numbers this friday. Fundamentals are still there. Consumer confidence is still high as it should be and yes, global trade tension will have an impact on us, it will come to our shores. This is the best time to do it. China cannot be allowed to get away what they have gotten away with all these years. This is the president to do it. Will it be painfu