2019. Breaking with tradition. Shocking numbers show Online Dating is crushing family and friends when it comes to meet someone special. How can you make money off of it . That and much more on making money. Charles folks look like were close to putting pen to paper. The white house confirming phase one of the china trade could be signed within a week. Well probably have a signing within the next week or so. Were waiting for the translation. You have got intellectual property theft in detail from the, may agreement. Youve got a good start on forced technology transfer. There is good language on currency manipulation which is a big deal. You have got access, Financial Market access in china. Charles getting the deal signed, sealed and delivered, what will it mean for 2020 . Like to welcome former trump trade and jobs advisor curtis ellis. We were this close, with we got the translation what language is that . Thats right. Charles this time it feels like it is true. Not just Peter Navarro but vice premier said in their media a delegation from the u. S. And china could get together as early as saturday. Felt like this part is done. What did we get . We got a verifiable agreement with enforcement that is really enforceable. For the first time the american businesses dont have to rely on the tender mercies of the Chinese Government to resolve any disputes. They go to the u. S. Trade representative and we get to resolve it quickly. If there is no quick resolution, the deal is off. And we get the chinese buying 200 billion more in American Goods and services and we get more Market Access for Financial Services inside of china. Charles this morning we got the deficit number, trade deficit number for goods only. Came in much better than wall street anticipated, the best level in three years. Dramatic change just from a year ago it looks like at this pace, china will be the number three trading partner. I think that is interesting. Because we really have not talked up this usmca at all. Right. Charles right now, as of right now, canada is, mexico, neckandneck is our top trading partners, well ahead of china now. Yeah. We do five times the amount of business with mexico and canada as we do with china. Consider, that five of the top 10 exports of china to the United States are also from mexico. We should do more business with mexico. Now that with we have the usmca we can do that. That will mean more of supply chains in north america, which means in the United States. Charles ive been reading that businesses acknowledged a long time ago that the economic, economic reasons for going to china were fading. Really . Charles they moved into the middle class t was harder and harder. Saying supply chains are already there, why mess it up. Was that a convenient excuse . Obviously an american who lost their job because of that didnt think it was a good excuse. Really. We have to look at what they call externalities. There is something more than shows up on a spreadsheet. Every american who doesnt have a job, will be alcoholic, get involved on drugs, be on food stamps. Who will pay for the food stamps . Taxpayers are. Charles you brought up a great point, interesting point, perhaps us doing less trading with china. A lot of folks are saying that could be a mistake. Douglas holtz eakin coming on the sew later in the week, were not sure if we won the trade war, well find outthat later. Ever separation from china is good idea, that is step step backward, it would divide the world in two spheres. Was that the goal of administration do less trade with china or buy more of our goods and have a more trade system. Administration, create jobs, increase standard of living for americans. If all the jobs were sucked in the communist peoples republic of china, hollowing out our industrial base, hollowing out Middle America that is not making america great. If china wants two systems, a totalitarian surveillance state, if they want to repress their people, we dont want any part of that. Charles otherwise we do want to access that 1. 3 billion population . Of course. But they have been conditioning that on us giving them our technology, giving them our factories. Thats not good. Charles unfortunately too Many American businesses have been willing to do that. Faustian deal. Im still not sure why. Curtis, thank you very much. Always appreciate it. Trade and tariffs two of the bigger news items in 2019 but it was the about face at the fed that made all the difference for your portfolio and dont look now, but the two biggest hawks will not vote in 2020. A major dove moves in. What will this mine for the fed . I want to discuss, with shah ghailani. Esther george, rosengren, they were vocal, very vocal dissenters. They did not like the idea of rate cuts. Theyre out. Theyre not voting members. Neel kashkari who was vocal about being a dove is in. Not enough people are talking about this could we see a more dovish fed . It is possible. I dont see myself negative rates, possibly 2020 or 2021. I certainly dont see it. Kashkari is a dove. A dyedinthewool dove. That bodes Interest Rates lower for longer that is positive for the markets and good for the economy. That is what we look forward to, that being behind us creates a good place for the market to continue to go higher from. Charles all right. So, it is interesting today, you got the United States and china both coming out saying were going to sign this deal probably within a week. The market at one point, the dow was off 200 points. You know the old sell on the news kind of thing. Yeah. Charles you talk about the feds, those mistakes being behind us, perhaps at least phase one maybe being behind us, how do you see 2020, particularly the early parts of the year for the market . Well, if phase one is being us, a deal is signed, certainly not going to be the comprehensive deal the president wants. Long term i dont see the kind of comprehensive deal the president wants happening anytime soon. I think it is put on the backburner to such a degree it will not be newsworthy anymore. Phase one will be one and done. Leave it at that. The markets have a clear ceiling to move higher. I see market moving higher in the first quarter. I see a good 10 plus, maybe 15 in 2020. Charles, there is nothing really overhead. There are externalities that could come out of left field. Inflation could be a problem at some point. Could be a dustup in the middle east or elsewhere with political issues. Think pretty much a goldilocks scenario for the economy and for market. Charles some are saying perhaps goldilocks on steroids . Yeah. Charles could it be too much of a good thing . Can the market, even a good economy with a great economic backdrop, can the market be overbought at some point . If so, what would you be thinking there . The of course the market could be overbought. In technical terms it probably has been overbought many, many times since 2009. It continued to go higher every single time it was overbought. Minor corrections since 2009 have been blips on bigger picture. I think investors make a huge mistake sitting on the sidelines thinking there is something they can get in lower. The market telling us what it wants to do. It wants to go higher. The reasons for it are principally lower rates for longer. That is what investors need to hang their hats on as long as that happens. Charles shah, im looking at top 20 winners. A hodgepodge of things. A few broken down brickandmortar names, some oil and gas names, someone has 10,000, how should they allocate it going into the new year . Clean slate of 10,000, new investor trying to figure out the market comes so far so fast, what would i do, i would split it up into two 5000dollar chunks. Put half into ford, six and almost a third dividend. Huge dividend yield in ford. And with that, i would, if i didnt like the market i would take some of the income from the dividend payment, provide some puts on maybe the spy, if i didnt like the market. Or even buy puts on ford if i thought it would go down. Also use the Dividend Income if i like the market to buy calls on the spy. The other 50 i put into microsoft. Charles sounds great. You have a concise plan. Why we love you. Been too long. See you soon, shah. Happy new year. Charles you too. We talked about massive closures of brickandmortar stores all the time come on this network. Coming up i will tell you who seems to be going the way of the dodo bird. Person of the year, has to be elon musk. How high one tesla bull says these are going to go. It will blow your mind. Thats next. We made usaa insurance for members like martin. An air force veteran made of doing whats right, not whats easy. So when a hailstorm hit, usaa reached out before he could even inspect the damage. Thats how you do it right. Usaa insurance is made just the way martins family needs it with hasslefree claims, he got paid before his neighbor even got started. Because doing right by our members, thats whats right. Usaa. What youre made of, were made for. Usaa some people say thats ridiculous. I dress how i feel. Yesterday i felt bold with boundless energy. This morning i woke up calm and unbreakable. Tomorrow . Who knows. Age is just an illusion. How you show up for the world, thats whats real. Whats your idea . I put it out there with a godaddy website. Make the world you want. Blake tesla open for business in china. Electric car Company Delivering the first model 3 car built in shanghai, however the stock is sliding on one Analyst Report that vehicle delivers may miss expectations. Those predictions are old news a big new prediction, how much elon musks company could be worth a decade from now. Jackie deangelis joins us with more. Reporter i will make you wait for the stock price target. Talk about tesla down a little bit today as you mention despite positive news for the company. It is making first model 3 delivers from the shanghai plant today. China is huge market for cars, electric cars in general. The price of this car will be about 50,000 u. S. But there is an exemption of china from purchase tax and government subsidy for about 3600. That brings the cost down. The shanghai facility as we know broke ground earlier this year. As of now some of the parts for the car are still imported but the expectation later in 2020 everything will be made in china. In an email to employees that was leaked musks subject line read this, please ignore stock price. He went on to say my silly jokes on twitter are just that. What really matters is your actual execution and effectiveness as a company. That is of course is the big issue for tesla, execution. Partially why the stock price is so volatile this year. Today the expectation, 15 units of model 3 were delivered. In the past musk said the target would be 3,000 units a week. That is very aggressive. Also remember that the government cleared the red tape for all of this last week. Probably not a coincidence given the recent trade news on china. Final point, get back to that price target. Trip of Global Equities research has put a 2030 price target, 10 years from now of 4,000 on the stock. Almost 10 times where it is trading today. He says there is no other company that has the mental capacity, the capital, the passion or aptitude to build an atscale supercharging network. That is what he thinks. Charles mental capacity. I have to keep that in mind. Reporter i paused for a second. Charles thank you very much, jackie. Tesla shares are down about 4 today, the electric car company is up 30 this year. So should it be something were looking to invest in . I want to bring in ever plus capital jason rotman . One thing ive been in and out of stock 10 years, jason. I have to tell you i root for elon musk in part because some people root against him. I think he is a visionary. Maybe he is part p. T. Barnum also admittedly. Maybe he takes advantage of government subsidies which he should do if theyre out there. He is really winning so far but would you buy the stock . You know what . I think you buy the stock heading into 2020, i will say that, even after a pretty significant runup, charles. I think tesla is still undervalued in the big big pick. Will i put out a 4,000dollar price target . No, at this point. It will go to 500 in next six months. It is undervalued as well tiff to the white space, starting to attack in china, just that alone. Charles what about the other part, if you do analysis versus any car company in the world, particularly ford and General Motors there is no way to justify, 420, 1000 or 4,000 . I think battery story is underplayed as well . Right. They just received, youre probably alluding to, they just received a patent on what eel loon musk is calling a million mile lithiumion battery. Tesla is not just p. T. Barnum. Theyre not just a brand story. Theyre a Technology Story as well. I think youre right, that, that Technology Story is kind of adds to their undervaluation as well. Theyre not just a cool cyber truck. They have protected patents. Charles technology obviously, momentum stocks, regained that strength late in the year. Theyre coming on strong. A lot of folks talking about what netflix has done over the last decade. It is so hard, seems so improbable to say hey a stock could go up 4,000 percent in 10 years yet it happens every decade. These names become cinnamon news with big moves from the upside. People dont buy them when they go up and dont buy them when they dip, the folks on the sidelines. Right. Are these still names, classic momentum names that dominate tech . Now the Communication Services sector, are they still worth buying . Well you know, listen the best investors dont look at tomorrow, you know, from a stock investing standpoint. As you know, charles, the best investors say where is the world going to be five years from now . What is the world looking like 10, 15 years from now . Those people that saw apple 15 years ago made quite a good profit. Amazon. Me and my buddy, what if we put 10 grand after we graduated college in 2001 in amazon did nothing . There are Companies Like that you can do that in. You have to be willing to ride. Amazons taken multiple 50 dips over the past 20 years. You have to be able to ride the volatility and hang on with certain companies. Charles you have to know the story. You have to understand the fundamentals. Something i keep preaching. Later on in the show i ask you what someone would do with 10,000 now. Jason. Sounds good. Charles we were talking about the winners. My picks for losers of 2019. Speaking of losers, Hedge Fund Managers pushed to the brink this year. Why theyre no longer the masters of the universe, after the break. Limu emu doug hour 36 in the stakeout. As soon as the homeowners arrive, well inform them that Liberty Mutual customizes home insurance, so theyll only pay for what they need. Your turn to keep watch, limu. Wake me up if you see anything. [ snoring ] [ loud squawking and siren blaring ] only pay for what you need. Liberty. Liberty. Liberty. Liberty. Charles 2019 is rough year for hedge funds. There were fewer groups opening up than closed shop. If they were not closing they were returning tons of cash in peanuts to investors. What will turn it around . I want to welcome gartman letter ceo dennis gartman. Dennis this, is interesting phenomenon, the ability to charge two and 20 is wonderful if you can get it. A lot of people got it for a long time. Maybe there were too many hedge funds but 4,000 hedge funds out in the last five years is pretty deep. We really shouldnt be surprised. Hard to keep up with the fact that the stock market is up 25, 26, 27, 28 . And a hedge fund, if you are a hedge fund, if you hedged, long and short on the same side you cannot compete. That will change eventually. Number of people that have been forced to leave the market will reach a climax there will be a time five years from now more hedge funds. It is hard to keep up with passive investing proves to be be all, end all. That end escently. Until then hedge fund have a heart time. When i got into the business 35 years ago, i wrote the gartman letter, i get the chinese peoples daily three days later i was a week ahead of everybody. Everybody gets the south china post, everybody gets the harold tribune and gets them immediately and hedge funds lost their hedge as far as news and analysis is concerned. That is the other problem they have. Charles i tend to agree with you. I find they overly complicated investing. I worry about the superstar hedge fund folks who dominate the news and, they go to war with companies in putting out shorts and 25 page reports on why it is going to work. You know, just feels like they have gone from just being money managers, folks who are trying to beat the markets as best they can, to sort of worriers who want all the attention and i think it has backfired . I cannot argue with you at all on that, charles. That is exactly what has happened. I think as i said i think well end up seeing five years from now, a return to macro hedge funds and real hedge funds both long and net short and have a net neutral exposure to the market. That is what the Hedge Fund Industries was first designedded to be. We gotten away to where it is just plungers. That will end. In the process ending now. Five years from now well have more hedge funds than we have at this point. Charles dennis ask but the year. Great year for the markets over all. Socalled fang names have come on pretty good. Energy is up today though. Energy acts pretty good here and there for the last couple weeks. Is it tough to be an investors and not be in stocks or industries that you dont like if you want to outperform . Well i think that, question for next year is whats going to happen. I think the place for people to look is the place where nothing has happened in the past several years. Where prices have been down. If i had to make a bet what is going to happen next year i bet on the fact that stock prices narrow a little it about relative to commodities. Commodity prices are egregiously preposterously shockingly inexpensive and i if were to you ask other guests on the show what they do with 10,000, i would buy Commodity Prices. Buy the commodity processs and etfs. Commodities are extremely inexpensive for now. They have been the past 2 1 2 or two years. Eventually that will change. I have to think that the almost schizophrenic m