Transcripts For FBC Varney Company 20240713 : vimarsana.com

FBC Varney Company July 13, 2024

Cruise ship is being treated with an experimental drug made by Gilead Sciences. Hes in the Nebraska Medical Center in omaha. Overseas, virus cases linked to italy have spread to five other European Countries, and virus cases linked to iran have spread to iraq, afghanistan, kuwait, oman, lebanon and bahrain. Brazil is testing a man who recently visited italy. If a second test is positive, it would be the first case in latin america. Health secretary azar told congress quote, we cannot hermetically seal off the United States. The cdc says its not if it arrives, but when. Worldwide, economies are slowing, there is a fear of association with anyone who may have been in any way near a Virus Outbreak. Some borders are closing, flights canceled, hotels with any possible carriers, locked down. All right. Now lets show you the markets. Its all over the place. The dow at one point very early this morning was down over, well over 400 points. Now weve got a green arrow showing maybe a gain of 60 points at the open, 9 on the s p at the open, 38 on the nasdaq. Heres a key anxiety indicator. The tenyear treasury yield. Record lows touched again earlier today, but we are back up to 1. 36 . The price of gold, wheres that this morning . All over the place. Down 15 an ounce at 1634. This is going to be a headlinedriven market. By the way, the president holds a News Conference at 6 00 p. M. Eastern. No, ladies and gentlemen, we have not forgotten the debate. How could we . It was a chaotic shouting match. Just watch this. Vladimir putin thinks that donald trump should be president of the United States and thats why russia is helping you get elected so you will lose. Hey, mr. Putin, if im president of the United States, trust me, youre not going to interfere in any more american elections. At least i didnt have a boss who said to me kill it the way that mayor bloomberg i never said that. 150 Million People have been killed since 2007 when bernie voted to exempt the gun manufacturers from liability. Domestic abusers cant go out and get an ak47. I wrote that law. You didnt write that. I wrote that bill. I wrote the bill. Stuart sound bites were rather cleancut. There was a lot more shouting than we just showed you. We will show you the shouting a bit later. That was the debates, just a couple days before the South Carolina primary. That was the debate, but really, lets get to your money, the dominant theme in the show today. The dow down almost 2,000 points in two days. The virus has hit our market. Joining us now, fox news columnist liz peek. Liz, i think the markets looking for a bottom but i think its very difficult to find it in a headline driven market. You dont know whats coming next. Its the uncertainty thats really killing the markets here. We dont know, obviously the biggest question mark for people in the United States, is it going to come here. The cdc yesterday said its not a question of if, but when. I think that really rattled people because so far, the only cases in the United States have been imported intentionally, people off of cruise ships, airlines, et cetera. Look, we dont know how bad this is going to be, but what we are going to see, without a doubt, over the next several days, is People Bargain hunting. If they wanted to buy apple and thought it ran away from them, they will start buying apple, or boeing, or disney, or whatever stock they have had on their wish list that basically, with a market that was up 29 last year, basically was unaffordable. Now people, stocks are on sale and this is what people have to remember. This is a problem, this virus, theres no question its hurting Certain Industries very badly, most industries are not going to be that badly impacted. Growth is a little slower, earnings a little lower, but our economy is still in pretty good shape. Stuart i think its a traders paradise. Buy at 10 30, sell at 10 31 for a dollar profit. Thats why youve got so much volatility. For sure. Stuart hold on. I know you are with us for the rest of the hour for sure. Jack hough, we are looking for a bottom. I dont know how you find it in a headlinedriven market. Its not quite a fire sale on stocks. I agree with liz, i think the market is headed higher ultimately. All we have done here is give up our gains for the year. We are still at 18 times forward earnings. Thats not especially cheap. You could look at past cases, look back to sars and see a bigger drop from the market during that outbreak. On the other hand, back then, you could buy a tenyear treasury paying you 4 . Now as you pointed out, you are at 1. 30 something. The alternatives to stocks are terrible right now. Stuart i think thats a bright spot. 1. 32, 1. 33, 1. 34 on the tenyear treasury, doesnt that point towards much lower Mortgage Rates . Ashley it does. We are expecting a huge surge in refinancing to happen, up already 156 from last year. When you get down to that level it makes it worthwhile to refinance because the cost of doing it will be, you know, offset by the savings on a monthly basis. Exactly what i have been telling barrons readers. If you want to panic over this virus, dont hoard surgical masks, dont buy or sell stocks wildly. Make a panicked call to your Mortgage Broker to refinance at a 15year fixed at 2. 78 . I would say this very low tenyear rate has been talked about again as an inverted yield curve. Its a warning sign. What it really is is a sign that Central Banks around the world are willing to step in and help offset the effects of this coronavirus. Thats what these markets are telling us. We have already seen it. China has stepped up. There will be other measures. Obviously rates are already very low but that is all positive and helpful to this stabilization of the World Economy. Stuart hold on a second. Im sure the Federal Reserve will lower rates. Yeah. Thats the betting. Stuart its built into the market. Lower rates wont fix the supply chain. It wont fix the lost demand that we have already established. Lauren that could cause inflation which a lot of people are worried about. Prices could go up as the economy dries up. There is all this talk of this pending pandemic. Pandemic is the medical term that the medical community is not using it just yet, but wall street certainly is using that term. Stuart okay. Quick check on commodities, if you are referring to inflation. I dont see much inflation in the price of oil and gas, because weve got oil down to 49 a barrel as we speak. Brent is down. Gold actually is down. Theres no sign of inflation. Thats a oneyear low for oil, 49. 47 as we speak. Lauren you cant stock the shelves with product outside of commodities. Amazon is struggling maybe to get their orders for prime day. Stuart you think prices would go up . Lauren it could happen. Longterm effect. Stuart okay. Let me get back to the virus and its spread. Lauren, can we start with you. Where is the spread . Lauren okay. So the spread, actually ash has all the details. I will let him do it. Ashley i have like 38 pages worth here. Let me give you the highlights. You mentioned the man in brazil. He has tested positive which means now that every continent except antarctica has been affected. Stuart the map does not show that case. Ashley this is the very latest. This is changing second to second. The u. S. Soldier is being kept offbase, First Military personnel being tested positive for this. Now in europe, continuing to grow. Italy recording its twelfth death, over 300 confirmed cases. Four children now have the coronavirus in italy. Greece has now confirmed its first case. Iran, very difficult to get true numbers out of iran. The number of deaths, the largest outside of mainland china, although the iranian government is only telling us that there are 12 deaths, 95 cases. That death rate does not really mesh with what else we have seen around the world. The fatality rate of coronavirus is 1 to 2 . Thats much higher in iran. Very difficult to get the real story there. San francisco has declared a state of emergency even though there are no cases there, as have, according to the l. A. Times san diego and santa clara counties. They want to get ahead of this based on what the cdc has said. San francisco in particular because of the large asian population. They say there are many people that go back and forth. They believe its only a matter of time before cases start cropping up in san francisco. And the Tokyo Olympics coming up, set to begin july 24th. Organizers now getting very nervous. Obviously the thought of bringing everyone from around the world together in close proximity for two or three weeks for the olympics, they say they are going to wait until the end of may before making a final decision. Things have improved by then, the olympics goes ahead. Stuart 20 minutes to the opening of the market this wednesday morning and thats the state of play. Some green arrows, very modest upside moves for the dow, s p and nasdaq after gigantic losses monday and tuesday. Heres the one major item of Corporate News that we have for you today. Outside the debate and outside of the virus, bob iger stepping down as disneys chief executive. Disney parks guy, the man who runs the parks system, bob chapek, is the new ceo. Jack, you spoke to bob iger and to mr. Chapek. I think it was last night . I had a call. Stuart as i understand it, chapek is saying the virus is just quote, a bump in the road for disney . Well, i mean, its a good sized bump, put it that way. At the parks business you are talking about a base of operating profit of about 7 billion for the year, and disney has already laid out some numbers in its last earnings call, park closures in shanghai and hong kong. They are talking about 200 to 300 million as a quarterly effect. But thats if things, you know, get better from here. If we see a prolonged effect, those numbers could grow larger. Its a bump but wall street is still trading it like it will be a temporary thing, not a longterm thing, of course. Stuart look at that. Disney up 438 since iger were you surprised that iger stepped down . Not surprised at all that he stepped down. I think hes stayed on, you know, for these extra few years in order to get the fox deal closed and i wasnt surprised by the choice. Bob chapek is very experienced. Hes doubled the profit at the parks over the past five years. He had 19 years of hollywood experience before that. I think hes a guy who really knows the business. I think what people are surprised at is the way it was announced. We are going to have a new ceo, by the way, we already have a new ceo. Usually you say hey, this change is coming six, nine months down the road. I think disney has had too much succession drama in its past and it was looking to avoid that this time around. Stuart well, the virus has taken disney down from a high of close to 150 to a premarket quote this morning of 126. All right, folks, there you have it. We have dealt with the virus, the market and disney. Lets move on to the democrats. Trashing the president. Oh, good. Stuart we got you, liz. In South Carolina last night. And they trashed the president over the virus. Roll tape. The president fired the pandemic specialists in this country two years ago so theres nobody here to figure out what the hell we should be doing. Hes defunded centers for disease control, cdc so we dont have the organization we need. This is a very serious thing. As you see, the stock market is falling apart. Many doctors are saying its just a matter of time before we are going to start seeing this here, and i think the answers as president , what would i do, i would better coordinate throughout my presidency to be ready for the next pandemic and to prepare for this one. This is a global problem. Weve got to work with countries all over the world to solve it. Stuart okay. Andy biggs is with us, republican from arizona. Andy, the democrats, i think they are using the crisis, using the virus, and politicizing it. What say you . I think you are exactly right. These folks dont give cdc credit for what theyre doing, they dont give the president credit for the transparency hes engaged in in this process but also, they will use anything to kind of sully the reputation of the president and frankly, many of them would like to see recession, they would like to see reduction in the success weve seen in the stock market, and they want to do that so they can say hes failed. But the reality is, this is coming from china. China is a communist nation and its not been truthful. These folks havent been truthful and i think that the democrats are trying to exploit this for political purposes and thats really in some ways, its unfortunate when what we really need to be doing is making sure were ready and making sure this president and the American People can rest assured that we are together and united on this. Stuart hold on a second. Liz peek is still here. I know you are chomping at the bit. I am so offended by Chuck Schumer in particular politicizing what should be an event or situation that brings this country together. Chuck schumer was on the floor of the senate yesterday railing about the president asking for 2. 5 billion because the number should be 3. 1 billion. Really . Come on. Thats going to make the difference between having some problem in our country and not . I thought it was absolutely appalling and i mean, andy is totally right. All the News Networks are trying to make this the scariest, most horrible thing thats ever happened to the United States. Remember, the only cases so far, we have imported and the president was very early to restrict travel into the United States and to protect america. So you know, i mean, honestly, we should all be trying to figure out what works, what needs to be done, not taking pot shots. Stuart andy, the president holds a News Conference, im not sure exactly what its at 6 00 p. M. Eastern tonight. Im not sure what format its going to be, press conference or statement, i dont know. What would you like to hear from the president . I think that he should reassure the American People that hes got his best people working on this, that we are organized, that we are united, that he has taken steps such as liz pointed out, travel restrictions which, by the way, democrats typically oppose travel restrictions apparently, but really make this point that we are ready and we are taking steps. I would just tell you something else, too. I talked to medical personnel last couple weeks and i said look, whats the deal here and they said well, one thing we know for certain is that america is better at treating viruses than china and so we may not be perfected but we are really way ahead of most other nations, we spend more than most of the nations including the eu on research. We are working on this now. I think he needs to give that calm reassurance to the United States. Stuart you are from a border state, and it occurs to me that what about people coming across the border from mexico into the United States . Are we doing any kind of checks . Because we do check at the airports if someones come on a flight thats been anywhere near a hot spot. Any checks at the border that you know of, and do you think we should have . We do check, so if we are taking somebody into custody, one of the things they do is they actually do a medical check, medical survey. In my opinion its not as extensive as it should be. But if theres any sign or symptom and thats the problem with coronavirus, you have two weeks of incubation but if theres any sign or symptom, they will actually take steps to try to correct stuart what about legal crossings . The people coming in legally, perfectly okay, constantly, are they checked . Do we have somebody taking their temperature, that kind of thing . Not that im aware of. Thats a problem. Stuart, we have border crossings, some of them where you have 20, 30, 40,000 people entering every day. And im not sure that we are doing enough there. So weve got a lot of places that we have holes in our system, but we can correct those holes, but i mean, this notion that we are going to halt the president s request for 2. 5 billion because you want an additional 600 million is really silly. Stuart hold on a second. For the benefit of viewers who may be joining us now, we are 13 minutes away from the opening of the market, and for the last half hour, maybe more than that, we have seen green arrows, in other words, the premarket quotes suggest the market will open higher this wednesday morning. After a huge decline monday and tuesday. Dow up maybe 80 but its extremely volatile. It goes up and down. As i was saying earlier, at one stage very early this morning, dow futures showed a loss of over 450 points. We have come all the way back and just a moment ago we were up 100, now we are up 70. I think you can expect this all day long. Its a headlinedriven market. Its a traders market. There will be all kinds of people who see a stock go down a couple bucks, buy it, and sell it when it goes back up 50 cents. You can do that if the cost of the sales transaction is zero and it is zero as we speak. Traders market. What do you say . Youre not going to contradict me. I know youre not. If youre asking where the bottom is, the answer is always now because i always say i think stocks are headed higher. I say take because long term, im right 100 of the time. Short term im right twothirds of the time and onethird im early. I dont see any reliable way to predict shortterm lauren the bottom is when we have a peak number of infections from coronavirus, no . Stuart when do you know . Lauren when the numbers start going the other direction. Outside of china, they are growing every else in the world. Thats actually very promising because that does suggest it isnt like forever in all these countries. Look, the problem in china is they lied about it, they delayed giving anyone information. Amazingly, we have one company in the United States now that has a vaccine ready to go into phase one in 42 days. Normally thats a process

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