Among, at least seven different other items that World Health Officials will look at, including the president of the United States before deciding at the end of this month whether to extend sheltering provisions or to start unwinding them n the middle that a bit of a constitutional back and forth whether the president alone can decide this matter. We have different reads of this. Well get into a little bit on this, some say that the president is wrong, states ultimately decide on this. The president granted them power when and how far to shelter, then they have the power to decide when and how to deshelter. Well get into that. It is a fascinating legal argument here, one might be a moot point if any of this progress weve seen reverses or slows, likely pushing back a timeline on getting everything back to normal. A lot of fast moving developments. Connell mcshane on the latest developments. Hey there, connell. Reporter neil, if there is agreement between the Health Experts around the world and to go slowly. World Health Organization officials will have updated strategic guidance published tomorrow for countries lifting controls in place and starting to reopen parts of their economy. With that said the numbers continue to go up in many areas and start to level off in some others. More than anything else were trying to look at trends as much as we possibly can, just under 29,000 new cases reported in the United States and figures that calm in as of yesterday. That rate of increase of right side of the screen 5 1 2 is worth watching and the reason is, that rate has been going down, 5 1 2 rate increase as of yesterday. The day before it was six. Day before that it was over 7 1 2 . If you look a longer term chart, this is when the term curve comes into play from johns hopkins, the you see number of cases in the United States is spiking extremely high rate throughout the month of march, once we get into where we are in midapril. That is the encouraging sign officials are looking at, leveling off of that increase especially over the last few days. The cdc director reminding us all not to get ahead of ourselves earlier today, speaking whether or not we have reached a peak. Take a listen. Were still not reached the peak but were close. You are going to know, ainsley that we reached reached a peak e start going down but were very close. The outbreak has stablized across our country. Connell stablized across our country. In other news we got confirmation from the navy that a sailor who tested positive for covid19 on uss Theodore Roosevelt indeed died from the virus. Nearly 600 sailors on that ship tested positive now. As we look at some figures overseas and try to figure out what if anything they might mean for us here in the United States, we are seeing, neil, similar trend develop. Spain, for example a 2 rate of increase in its most recent figures, but the overall number may seem high in spain, the rate of increase, talking about the smallest daily rate of increase in three weeks. Other European Countries are starting to make small moves, number of them putting plans in place at least to start opening up parts of their economy or start easing a restrictions, put people back to work in some cases but almost all of those moves are quite gradual. All the countries will continue to have restrictions in place. I will end here, neil, where we started in our own area. The governor of new york, andrew cuomo continue as live briefing in albany for report is. He started to answer questions, just before he got to the q a period, neil, he did at least start to outline his own plan for reopening new york state, talking about relying on experts and not politicians. Talking about doing things slowly in terms of easing us out out of isolation. He compared to turning a valve, doing it slowly but surely. Says a lot of this will be based on the ability to increase testing and final point he made moments ago, neil, he would like to have that reopening as coordinated on a regional basis as he possibly can. So he will be meeting with governors of new jersey around connecticut to talk just about that. Back to you. Neil connell, thank you very, very much. To Connells Point when what they look at is trends and something favorable look at increase in number of cases the increase going down. The case increase in this country over the weekend jumped about 19. 6 from the prior weekend but the prior weekend it jumped 37 from the weekend before that. And the weekend before that it had jumped 66 from the weekend before that. This seems a bit monotonous here to illustrate the point, those cases on a percentage basis slid just in the last weeks from weekly increase at a rate of 66 to now about 19. 6 . It is the trend that will be important to follow. Lets get a read on that from dr. Boez. You might remember him, a favorite guest from those on this shown he treated Saddam Hussein when we captured him. Got a bronze star. Serving longest combat tours for a physician in history. This man knows what he speaks, very, very brave in the process. Doctor, let me get first your take what youre hearing on these numbers. Are they encouraging to you . Is it the kind of stuff that would justify, if they were to continue, a partial reopening of a country and an economy . What else would you follow . Hi, neil, thank you for having me. You know, lets look at whats going on inside of the human body. Essentially what happens is were exposed. We create an immune response. We create antibodies in the form of igm antibodies and igg antibodies. You might hear that in future. Right now our population is one of three groups, theyre either susceptible, meaning they havent caught it they dont have antibodies or else they are infected and they recovered and they have the igg antibodies and hope they are immune. When we look at these curves to answer your question, basically which of those three compartments are they in, susceptible, infected or recovered and if everybody is susceptible still because they stayed home, and then we open up the economy, theyre going to go out, there will be another spike. I think there will be another spike. I think it wont be as large as the original spike but this virus is not going away. For example, a similar coronavirus, sars, we havent seen that like in 15 years. [inaudible]. Paths in china and we basically eradicated those paths. We dont have a similar way to looks like it is not seasonal either. The heat will not completely eradicate. I think they will be multiple spikes but will not be as bad [inaudible]. Neil what about this notion that it could be an 18month, up to 1month 18 month roller coaster of flareups . Minneapolis Federal Reserve official who was fearing that. Neel kashkari was saying, that tends to be your medical point, doctor, the history of these things, in this case it might be even more pronounced . Do you then believe we all should be rolling out of this together or none at all . Is there any benefit to a staggered deshelterring plan when those, lets say who do deshelter or ratchet things down, theyre free to travel to the places that might still be sheltered, right . Everybody has a different risk tolerance what theyre willing to do and, but i think we have to not only think about ourselves, we have to think about others who we may infect. I dont think there will be one plan to draw everything out based on one city, new york, l. A. , wherever were at. Everybody region will be different. Tough understand which group youre in. Are you in susceptible group, have you been exposed, infected and recovered with antibodies . When we have the Testing Available where we can see where populations are, then we can make calculated decisions because how do you know where youre going if you dont know where youre at . Neil wellsaid, wellsaid. Doctor, thank you for your hard work. I know you dont get much sleep. We appreciate the fact i guess that you dont get much sleep. Thank you again, doctor. Meantime as the doctor pointed out it is a judgment call but it better be very careful judgment this occurs at a time, markets last week, ended strongly. Not so much today. There is not a whole lot of clarity where were going, after a big runup last week. It is natural to get back a little bit. The confusion gets back, show us the light at the end of the tunnel. By and large we like the direction were seeing. Were going into earnings season this is it our first chance to see exactly how companies fared. More what theyre warning is going to be about this. So many, Many Companies have said that they simply do not know. If you think about it, already starbucks and ge, fedex are some of the boldfaced names said we have no way of knowing or gauging exactly any guidance for you because there is no way of knowing the exact hit globally that we have been seeing when essentially business stops across the globe. Were going to start getting first hits tomorrow when likes of jpmorgan and wells fargo and johnson johnson, later in the week united health, bank of america. J. B. Hunt transportation, many, many more. It will be one of those where people say all right, this is the first hint, the first telegraphing of an impact of this magnitude and its effect on companies. Lets get the read from heather zumarriaga and phil flynn. I phil, i end with you, another wild card, this oil deal was supposed to be a cut in production, were told 9. 7 million a day by principle opec players and additional members, but the president said it could be as much as 20 Million Barrels. Do you know what is the real figure . What were hearing now the Saudi Oil Minister just spoke, neil. He is confirming what President Trump is saying, that the cut in actuality will be much closer to just under 20 Million Barrels. When it comes to opec you have to be ready for fuzzy math, right . Is not real production cuts but production cuts by opec under 10 Million Barrels a day. 3. 6 Million Barrels from other opec countries. Then the amount of oil well buy for the Global Strategic Petroleum reserve. That is how they get to the number. The International Energy agency is vowing to buy over 200 Million Barrels for the Strategic Global reserve. That means every country in the g20 that is part of this club is going to be kicking in buying it. Theyre taking that as effective production cut, taking oil off the market, putting it away for a rainy day. The u. S. Has been talking about buying oil for the Strategic Petroleum reserve. That is put on hold until the Congress Gives empty money to do that. More than likely that will happen in one of the new stimulus bills that are coming down the pike. Neil heather, you know, phil mentioned the stimulus bills, now this extra 250 million theyre looking to lock down for socalled Paycheck Protection Program, did any of them make a difference to you, federal measures, big as they are, in the scheme of things, for you . Oh, my god. Of course they make a big difference at the end of the day. Were trying, i think, the big banks need to get loans out faster. The government is doing all they can at this burn rate i think of Small Businesses asking and demanding for these loans, over 800,000 loans thus far. I believe over 200 billion has been moved and processed by small banks and Community Banks. This is what needs to go out to companies to keep American Workers employed. 17 million unemployed thus far. It is just heartbreaking. So i think were looking at round two of another Paycheck Protection Program to Small Businesses that needs to be passed. Now is not the time for partisan politics in washington. Neil on that, heather, just to buttonhole that, the argument schorring up, adding to the Paycheck Protection Program it will mitigate number of layoffs but those filing jobless claims by millions here. Im wondering if were at 70 million americans who filed for jobless benefits, what is the top you see, assuming this 250 billion gets in, on top of 360 billion already in the package, on top of relief checks, federal checks, Federal Reserve backstop what do you think. Is that question for me, neil . Neil it is, heather, im sorry. I mean the Kansas City Fed estimating 47 million job losses. That is a staggering number. Hard to even comprehend Something Like that, since were already at 17 million though, you look at jpmorgan, for example, estimating 40 hit to gdp. Unemployment as high as 20 . And that seems to be a pretty conservative estimate across the board, it doesnt seem too out of line. A few weeks ago, just over a month we had unemployment at record lows and wages rising. This is heartbreaking. We need to keep as many people employed as we can in the private sector. The government is doing all they can but we need to reinvent ourselves, figure out ways to do business differently. Brooks brothers is making masks. Louis vuitton is making hand sanitizer. General electric and ford making ventilators. There are Ways Companies and americans and individuals can reinvent ourselves to be service to the public in these dire times of need right now. Neil phil, real quickly, why isnt oil reacting dramatically up to 20 millionbarrel cut a day . Is it feeling offsets weakness in demand and doesnt even address that . Well i think, theyre looking at it as a break even. Make no mistake about it it is not what the oil market is doing today, what would have happened we would see the prices crashes. The market is well off the lows we saw last week. Once we start to see any signs of demand coming back it will help. Neil all right. Guys, i want to thank you both very, very much. Meanwhile this back and forth debate not only when we open, but who has the power to decide when we reopen and where. The president says everything stops with him. So if he says everybody back in the water, economic water, thats the order. The constitution seems to disagree, after this. You wouldnt accept an incomplete job from anyone else. Why accept it from your allergy pills . Flonase sensimist. Nothing stronger. Nothing gentler. Nothing lasts longer. Flonase sensimist. 24 hour nondrowsy allergy relief these expect and way more. Internthats xfinity xfi. U get powerful wifi coverage that leaves no room behind with xfi pods. And now xfi advanced security is free with the xfi gateway, giving you an added layer of network protection, so every device thats connected is protected. Thats a 72 a year value. No one else offers this. Faster speed, coverage, and free advanced security at an unbeatable value with xfinity xfi. Can your internet do that . And now for their service to the community, we present limu emu doug with this key to the city. [ applause ] its an honor to tell you that Liberty Mutual customizes your Car Insurance so you only pay for what you need. And now we need to get back to work. [ applause and band playing ] only pay for what you need. Liberty. Liberty. Liberty. Liberty. Neil all right. Its the big question, when to reopen, when to ease up on the, you know, sheltering provisions that have been in effect now and are to be in effect through the end of the month . Then the question how will you go about that . Blake burman following this back and forth very closely and i guess it created a bit of a constitutional debate whether thats the president s call exclusively or governors . Anyway, where does this stand right now . Reporter yeah, neil, there are a couple things to look out for as we begin the week here in washington this monday afternoon. First off the very question as to potential reopening the economy, when that might happen. How do you go about doing that . The president , suggested earlier this morning, essentially that it would be his call as to when that would happen and not necessarily governors within the states or local officials within the states. This was the tweet from the president earlier today in which he said, quote, it is the decision of the president and for many good reasons. With that being said the administration and i are working closely with the governors and this will continue, a decision by me, in conjunction with governors and inputs from others will be made shortly. However the constitution, neil, says that neither the president nor congress have authority to regulate for things like health, safety, welfare, or morality within a state. President trump as you know has been touting his relationship with governors all across the country but something to watch for in case certain governors feel it is best to eventually go in a different direction than the cdc and president ial guidance. When i asked larry kudlow, Vice President mike pence in recent weeks, they suggested that the federal government would provide guidance essentially the states would follow thereafter. Secondly we also heard from the president , neil, last week he would make a decision this week as it relates to funding for the world Health Organization. Here is what i can tell you in speaking with Senior Administration officials earlier this morning. The Funding Options as it relates to the world Health Organization still being gathered at this point so they can present the president , officials can with options what to do with funding. The head of the world Health Organization earlier this morning said that hopes the pre