Districts that dont open schools. Well get reaction from mattie duppler. What about the another stimulus package . Where is the urgency . I will a a an bgs all that and so muchuc more morn akinmymomo. Wheelelelel are areni tng t s y nglihikenk tinhig,nking,ing, tnh iths wh iats ywhouat y couan. Snststste a of knowns and a lot of unknownnk to to consider at this men put into perspective. Rtic alert bear case, 20 decline from where we right now. S p, maybe to 2500. Base case, the s p earnings improve to the end of the year, maybe slightly higher than where we are. There is the bull case. 3500 in the s p. I want to bring in two women that really know. Experts. Market chief strategist, Kathleen Rooney vera. We have Francis Newton stacy. You know i love you guys. When i bring you on, that is six names that i have to contend with. Let me, start with you, francis, of these three potential scenarios which one makes the most sense to you . By the way how should we be invested in that particuarly scenario . The Defense Sector is the which is very odd. Market on uptick in cases, we still have a lag in deaths. That remains to be seen how that plays out. Earnings kicking off next week. So much is priced into the market. It will be interesting to see if there are surprises. In the short term im watching 3125 on the s p. If we get downward momentum, well get a selloff. I expect stocks to kind of chill the rest of the summer. I see real risks ahead when the airlines are able to lay people off by the end of september and when those loans come out of forbearance at the end of the october. If we lose the extra 600 a week, it will be interesting to see how many loans go into forbearance. We have 100 million in loans in forbearance. We have no idea what the damage will be. Charles sounds like youre on the bear side. Katherine . I couldnt agree more with a lot of what francis said. I will add one thing, if we get a surprise, we have 10 trillion in surge in equities all based on earnings that no one knows what theyre going to look like. So i think the markets are certainly discounting the best. That is why were recommending, charles, a barbell strategy which you want to place yourself in defensive and undervalued sectors. Defensive, i couldnt agree more with francis. Technology is incredible. It is such an incredible sector, charles, structurally it has become defensive. Look at vacillations in the market since covid erupted, technology is up during both and down names. That tells us it is defensive while at the same time being a growth sector. You want to be on undervalued side. In the barbell approach, charles, you want to be in banks. Charles wow, that is an intriguing thing. Along that line of thinking, one thing seems certain right now the old school hedging has really been a disaster. Consider this is the year hedge funds should have outperformed the market. A lot of people have been trying to mimic that, a lot of individual investors. Obviously the pros cant make it work then what should they be considering. Kathryn likes barbell approach. Francis is there a general approach for investors to look at this market, because hedging, being short and long at the same time has been unmitigated disaster for most . Yes. So it is very interesting. If we see a little bit of an uptick in inflation, a very tiny one, you will have a stagflation nary play which is usually utilities, reits those kinds of things. However utilities under pressure today given that, you know, the economy not really necessarily on the direction to open up strongly as we thought, were not sure. Viruses are up. Tech is playing a the defensive role at this moment in time. The minute we start seeing cases decline or something go right i think well see a small uptick in inflation, that is utilities, reits, things like that. We could have another deflationary risk which is another massive selloff. You have got treasurys, gold, all quintessential, u. S. Dollar but i think that probably well not see until we see credit risk at the end of october. Charles both of you ladies sound pessimistic. I got to tell you it is interesting, Financial Media narrative all year long has been hoard of millenial traders goosed the market up on unbright delled optimism. When you look the evidence is not there the vix well above the normal levels, the fear index. I know the most recent American Association of individual investors optimism poll was extremely bearish. Kathryn, i thought that was typically good for the market when most folks were bearish or feeling like something bad was going to happen . Lets make it simple, charles. It is difficult to say that but lets try to make it simple. The u. S. Economy is based on consumption. 3 4 of aggregate demand comes from consumption. Domestic demand incorporates consumption which is spending and private investment. So if you get a trend pickup in Consumer Confidence, weve seen very good data, spectacular data for two consecutive month from the consumer Conference Board of Consumer Confidence and current assessments as well as from michigan. If that continues i think this market, 45 surge has been validated. If it retraces, then we should expect this vshaped recovery both economic and market to become a w. Charles all right. A lot of unknowns out there. Kathryn rooney vera, Francis Newton stacy, thank you very much. President trump discussing how to safely reopen our schools for the fall today but he is also pressuring governors, in fact he tweeted earlier today, in germany, denmark, norway, sweden, other countries, schools are opening no problem. The dems would think it would be bad for them politically if schools opened before the november elections but it is important for the children and families. May cut off funding if not open. If the gop wants to open schools, you know states will demand more funding from congress, someone has to blink. I want to bring in National Taxpayers union ceo, mattie duppler. I know where the president is coming from. I agree with him. I dont think this is a time cutting off funding. The big fight between now and july 30 fir, how much going into the states ostensibly for things like School Reopenings . You know the one point i think of bipartisan consensus right now we need schools open. We need schools open because it is important for kids socialization. Importantly it is also extremely important for economy so parents can go back to work. When it come to congress role, youre right, were at a little bit after stale mail. The end of july, when a lot of cares act funding mechanism start to run out. Importantly the expansion much unemployment insurance. That is deadline is july 31st. We see support lined up for business, like ppp loan, theyre start towing reach the end of their runway as well. If congress doesnt act, that will create a vacuum from the funding side but on the side. The president , cdc had done i think a very, very good job laying out a framework for how states can reopen. The question is whether or not whether states will follow the framework or have been following that framework and as a consequence of that, are the environments in the states safe enough to reopen the schools . These are Public Health questions that have economic consequences. Charles let me also for july 31st a big fight will be over unemployment, the extended unemployment insurance, particularly 600 bucks. One of my guests said if that doesnt happen, we could see mortgage defaults go through the roof. Then this week the Economic Policy institute says if that goes away, we could see millions of emunemployed. Your home state of wisconsin would see an extra 65,000 people unemployed is it real think that critical . I thought it was the exact opposite. The extra 600 bucks are keeping people on the sofa . It is interesting debate. Economists said extending 600 bucks could impact the recovery. If youre rational worker being paid more than to work, that is what you will do. The data from the department of labor indicates people are getting back to work. It is more of demand. Whether or not businesses can open and they have work to give to workers. At ntu we released a report supportive of efforts to bridge the gap. Chairman brady Ranking Member brady of the ways and means committee, and senator portman would bonus out workers as they try to get off of unemployment and back to work. Anything that creates certainty in the economy right now, is the most important component what congress can do to keep the recovery going. Charles well, to that point, mattie, early this morning, news out of the uk that they have now created a 9 billiondollar effort to retain workers and a specific effort to bring in young workers, folks under 25 years old. They will spend 9 billion pounds on that. That kind of gave our market something of a lift. The notion is that we should be doing Something Like that. Does that go against some traditional conservative financial orthodoxy that the government is getting in way too deep, paying people to take a job . Again, i think the important part here is that Congress Certainly has a role to play to provide certainty, not just to the markets but to businesses and families across this country, but that means what they pass should be targeted, timely, and should actually go to giving relief to those who need it. We have no way of knowing whether 24yearold worker in the uk needs support the most. We need systems in place that keep the social safety net robust enough so it helps those on the worst amount of luck in these kind of circumstances. So far congress acted to do that. Charles, as we talked about before, that july 31st deadline is where the rubber will hit the road. Youre seeing mortgage forbearance, rent payments, fiscal space given to families and individuals in near term when the coronavirus hit, those are starting to wear out as well. If congress doesnt act. We might be for a personal storm, income false and no social safety net as we continue to wade through the recovery and wade through the reopenings at the state level. Charles the clock is ticking. Mattie, always appreciate it. Thank you. Thanks, charles. Charles all right, folks, were staying on these reopening efforts as the biggest story right now. And were talking about the economy, stimulus, all of that stuff. Again you can hear the clock ticking. I want to ask congressman andy biggs if Congress Might actually fumble this golden opportunity . It is like a game of pacman, year after year gobbling up retailers. Guess what, one retailer turning the tables ready to gobble up amazon. Wait until you hear this story. Did you know that americans that bought gold in 2005 quadrupled their money by 2012 . And even now, many experts predict the next gold rush is just beginning. So call us money reserve, the only Precious MetalsOrganization Led by a former director of the United States mint. As one of the largest us gold coin distributors in the country, us money reserve has proudly served hundreds of thousands of clients worldwide. There may have never been a better time to start diversifying your assets with physical gold and silver. And right now its easy to get started. Pick up the phone right now. Call to receive the complete guide to protecting your hardearned assets. Dont put it off another day. The call is free, and youll speak with one of the us money reserve account specialists who will get you your free information guide in the mail right away. I enjoy buying gold. Gold has protected me. I feel comfortable. When i got involved with gold, and something i could physically touch and i could hold. No one could take it away from me. I have it and i have it secured. Of all my years involvement with buying gold, its only gotten better in my faith in the company. The us money reserve. Thats the company i do business with and i dont see doing business with anyone else. Theyre trusted and theyve always done right by me. If youve bought gold in the past or would like to learn more about why physical gold should be an important part of your portfolio, pick up the phone. And call to receive the complete guide to buying gold, which will provide you important, neverseenbefore facts and information you should know about making gold, silver and platinum purchases. Pick up the phone and call americas gold authority, us money reserve. With nearly two decades in business, over a billion dollars in transactions, and more than a half a million clients worldwide, us money reserve is one of the most dependable gold distributors in america. Because now you can expewatch all your favorite hulu shows and movies on xfinity. Youre only a voice command away from Award Winning shows like the handmaids tale, to new hits like little fires everywhere. And fx originals you can only watch on hulu. Thats just the beginning of what you can experience with hulu on xfinity. Tv made simple, easy, awesome. Charles talks have not even officially begun over a Coronavirus Relief package and republicans and democrats are at an impasse. Edward lawrence live on what is holding up both sides this time. Reporter there is a lot to talk about. The administration is targeting a relief package of one trillion dollars or less, that is less than the House Republicans passed of 3 trillion. Senior Administration Official is concern in the white house the votes may not be there if the cares four act balloons in cost. Officials say some republican senators are balking at the amount of spending because the bill will come due at some point. Senior Administration Officials says the administration wants in the deal, payroll tax relief, direct payments to americans and targeted relief for the hardest hit sectors. Two mentioned to me, hotels and restaurants. Senior Administration Officials says relief could come in the form of tax credits for those sectors t could be a direct bail out with money left over in the paycheck protection program. Im told only red line what Senate Majority leader Mitch Mcconnell wants, limited Liability Protection for businesses reopening. He wants retroactive back to december of 2019. Discussion is going on several weeks between the administration and members of congress about the next stimulus package but the negotiations dont start until july 20th, when the senate comes back in session. Charles . Charles edward, thank you very much. On that i want to bring in arizona congressman, republican congressman andy biggs. Congressman, thanks for joining us. I think you guys are playing it close to the vest. It will be a short window to hash all of this out. Despite the fact weve come back much better and stronger than anyone anticipated there is certainly no argument parts of this economy certainly need help. Youre right, charles, and we have a short runaway, thats for sure and i will just tell you that some of the things being offered dont take into account the long term ramifications. So you can throw another trillion dollars at it. But you have a 5 trilliondollar structural deficit for this year. You ratchet that up, that is a huge wealth transfer. Then at the same time i just talked to a Business Owner today who said they are down 45 in earnings, revenue, but theyre coming back but they cant get their employees to come back because theyre getting the 600dollar federal bonus for unemployment. That is not the first time ive heard that. We have to be very careful, on the steps that were going to put into a relief package. Charles so owed wardlaw recognize talked about Something Special for hotels and restaurants. This morning in the uk they cut their vat tax on hospitality by 5 , which i find to be fascinating. Anywhere around the world when they want to goose an economy in the emergency, they know the first thing you do is cut taxes. They cut the vat tax to help out there. What are we going to do . That is certainly an area where you can seem to find bipartisan agreement . You would think so but im not sure you get it. I think the payroll tax reduction the president is talking about is immediately stimulative. That would include the area that is there but i will tell you as long as you have people that are scared to death, putting hysteria and panic about going anywhere you will have trouble with those sectors. You know, lodging and restaurants. Charles lets talk about this for a moment because i know youre meeting with the cdc. You dont agree with their school guidelines. What are they getting wrong . You know i think the schools should open up and i think, that the local jurisdictions should be working on that. I think governors should be working on that. Im not sure necessarily what they get right or what they get wrong but i can tell you this, the guidelines they have in place, that they talked about are so onerous, think about it. A lot of students end up on buses in arizona. You cant even get enough buses to transport by the cdc guidelines, sticking one kid on a row, two kids on every other row type of thing. You just cant do that to make that happen. So you need to get schools back open and those cdc guidelines are pretty owner russ and probably cant be complied with. You need local jurisdictions to weigh in with the local Health Officials to design a program that can work and protect the kids and those teaching the kids. Charles right. That makes sense. This whole thing has been an exercise in federalism, right . The responsibilities at local levels. Right. Charles but that being said, how is your state . How is arizona doing right now with the new cases, hospitalizations, deaths . How are you feeling about this right now . Well, i think we should stay open. I mean we have more cases, thats for sure but our hospitalization rate decreased by well over 100 in the last 30 days. The same with the fatality rate decreased by 135 over the last 30 days. We still have bed space, thats available. The icus, just the data, if we were to get granular on this, you would say, were in december shape. We can go forward. Instead we have some of our elected officials are shutti