Transcripts For FBC Making Money With Charles Payne 20240712

FBC Making Money With Charles Payne July 12, 2024

The pain. He is here along with senator mike braun. China is firing back as the cold war between the two countries heat up but i continue to ask this one question. Is this big business silence same thing as collaborating with the enemy . Will big business join the fight . We have blockbuster panel to weigh in that. All and much more on making money. [. Charles its a down day for the markets which was not overdue, not sparking any real alarm. The rebound moved from erasing 20 20s losses to try to distance the fastest bear market in the history, now to the point where you want to broaden out winners if we are to keep this rally going. There are sufficient reasons for concern and near term valuation, coronavirus, long term growing debt and u. S. President ial elections but i got to tell you the s p and nasdaq higher for the year. The question will the dow join them soon . I have Fitzgerald Group principle, keith fitzgerald, David Nicholas and point view Wealth Management david dietze. I want to look at the megacap stocks that kind of set the tone for today. Microsoft and tesla did not get a big lift after earnings. We can quibble about the cloud growth in microsoft or earnings with tessa i think both will come back. Mike, where are you today as the stocks set the tone for the stock market . I think Quality Matters than quantity. I am focused on big megacap names. Microsoft, for example, im loading heavy. This is bet on digitizing your life five to 10 years from now. Tesla is still a great play. That is very volatile. I dont want to touch that one right now. Charles microsofts azure business, 47 growth. First time under 50 . Is that raising any red flags with you . Obviously if youre still buying you think that is temporary move. I think its a temporary move. If we look at the big picture this is not about this technology, that technology, windows, anything else. This is about your life, how that life gets digitized five to 10 years from now. That is the real battle. Charles nicholas, David Nicholas, i hear youre not as enthusiastic about these megacap names. The run over . I love microsoft. I agree with keith, im not selling my microsoft anytime soon but i think it is more about resetting expectations. I dont expect megacaps to rally the first half of the year. Well not see that in my opinion the second half of the year. It doesnt mean sell. Keith said it correctly. Why are we owning names. We own the names because theyre quality and certainty in a time of uncertainty. I like my megacaps, but lets hold them and be realistic with the expectation what is they will do throughout the rest of the year. Charles david dietze, it is not just the megacap names. Im looking at names i missed. I see them pulling back a bit and i start getting my pencil out. With respect to megacap and broaden out technology. Buy the dip only worked the last 10 years. Will it keep working . Quite frankly, charles, history suggests no. Generally value beats growth. They had a great decade. That is only happened 7 of all the rolling 10year periods. With that outperformance by growth, value takes the lead the next 10 years. From now to yearend, sure, megacap tech. But at some point the baton is going to pass. As we get past the coronavirus, economy gets on firmerill look e laggards and so forth. It they will look at more value names. There will be less interest in what worked during the pandemic. Charles all right. Im going to come back to you later in the segment for some of those names. 16 straight weeks of declines with initial jobless claims, folks. We saw in fact higher than expected climb. We knew the numbers were going to go up. Seems the market may be somewhat dispirited from that and report from treasury secretary mnuchin, that the administration, Republican Leaders are looking for extension of unemployment benefits, enhanced unemployment benefits. They want something in with like, keep them levered at 70 of wages. That would mean a gigantic haircut for a lot of people in e market. Go back to you, david dietze, on this. How important we get a stimulus bill, but particularly get money into the hands of consumers . Would a haircut at that big hurt the recovery . I think it is critical a bill gets passed. Of course the focus has been heightened when we saw blip up in new claims for unemployment benefit. Weig income cliff for a large segment this month. Something has to happen. Charles so 600 though, the 600 it will be so important to keep this going until we get a vaccine in hand. Charles okay. So 600, David Nicholas, at 600 bucks, we know that is too much work. Sense that people will i think zero is going to be too little. Where is the median that will be acceptable to keep the economy going and that the market will applaud . Yeah. Charles. We dont want disincentives to work. So i think is finding Something Like 70 wage replacement ratio. This is more like a national disaster. This is something outside the economy affecting this well need some lifesupport. We dont disincentivize work. I think were seeing that. If we get some type of percentage of wayne replacement well see a more reaicaround ins going forward. Charles all right. Write it down. Im saying it will be 300 to 400 even though the republicans have drawn a le in the sand. Hey, the s p 500 just joining us in this last week. Nasdaq going positive for the year. B;all eyes on the Dow Jones Industrial average. We know the granddaddy of all the major indices. Nicholas, youre the chart master. What is the chart telling you . Can the dow get into the plus column this year . Yeah it can. Only 10 of dow stocks are positive for the year. We nee 1500 points on the dow. What will get us there . Bottom 20 get us there . Or top 10 . I think it will be the top 10. Unless you have names like disney, jpmorgan, some names ickinghavent seen recovery, up, it will be the top 10 stocks that get us there. My bet on them. That will get us positive for the year. Charles keith fitzgerald, i keep saying look at boeing. It doesnt have to power and oomph it did for years. It is Still Critical name. Think boeing needs to be north of 200 before dow gets to plus column. I share that sentiment. That 737 max news is not helping. With the stuff heating up with china, they make critical platforms our mility use even if we dont have a conflict and i hope we dont. Charles right. They have a ton of military contracts. The stock was up to 186 recently but they keep fumbling. Talk about investment themes that occurredince the pandemic began because they continue to go on, right . Particularly in the Consumer Discretionary area. Were seeing changes of things there. Car dealer, autonation, they reported their best quarter ever. Homebuilder pulte homes saw new orders and backlogs significantly above consensus. Itt homebuilder index alltime high. Keith you talked earlier about making some changes. I think the pandemic has introduced new names or old names probably should not be in peoples portfolios. I agree with that sentiment. That is a great way to put it. It has reduced companies we thought we knew a lot about. For example, autonation is great one. Pulte is great one. Also the essential, what im calling the earnings basics. That is costco and wmart. Both giving amazon a run for its money. I will prefer the former rather than the latter. Charles david, you just kind of kicked the mega stocks to the curb. Said go back to value. The market is trying to agree with you. What do you like here . Companies that dominate their space. The one i want to highlight this afternoon, charles, tyson foods. The stock was 95 earlier this year. Now it is 60. I think they do much better than expected in earnings. They are the Market Leader in pork and chicken. That is not something tech is making irrelevant. We have the problem with the production lines. Well get past that. Charles right. Of course the company should earn close to 6 next year. 10 times, 10 times earnings for a Market Leader. That looks good to me, charles. Charles you know what . I think im feeling tyson foods. I bought it for the reasons you describe. Ive been so frust left, david , anything on the value side you like here . I like financials. I think from quality of Balance Sheet play, for me the recovery uay is financials. I also like disney. My family is itching to get back to the theme parks. My girls are. Me not so much. I like disney and jpmorgan. Two specific plays i like. Charles david, david, keith. That is more of a Brokerage Firm name than a law firm. I like that. David, david and keith, thee of the best. Thank you very much. Folks, Small Businesses are the bedrock of our economy. We talk about that all the time and they have been rocked by covid19. Now there is growing bipartisan support for a bill to provide ppp forgiveness for them. Could this actually happen . Well talk to one ever the authors, senator kevin cramer. He is up next china trying to intimidate the United States with its latest warning but corporations here at home are still more than able to play nice with beijing. What will it take for them to join the fight . This is a cold war. We need their help. Well be right back [indistinct radio chatter] mom come on, hurry up all systems go . Mission Control 5 4 3 2. An o audi etron. The next frontier of eleric. Get audi at your door Remote Services through participating dealers. Come on in, were open. All we do is hand you the bag. Simple. Done. We adapt and we change. You know, you just figure it out. Charles new data from yelp shows more than half of americas restaurants are closed for good but those numbers may not be as nearly as bad as they let on. Kristina partsinevelos joins us live from manhattan to kristina. Reporter charles, we know restaurants have suffered am lockdowns, capacity restrictions, reclosury have had to close their doors for good or temporarily like this see on. Sign, forced to close but there are new figures from a yelp report that are painting a dire picture for the restaurant industry. It is important we need to to sy may not be reflective of the entire industry. The report goes on to say that over half of the restaurants out there that will be shut permanently due to the pandemic, but that report only reflects those restaurants using the app, roughly about 26,000 restaurants. It goes for a catchy headline too. We reached out to the National Restaurant association. They said right now only 3 of restaurants closed permanently. Their survey reflects 850,000 restaurants across the country. Doesnt matter how big a restaurant is, how long it has been around, docks is a institution, it has been around since 1897. A lot of businessmen and politicians frequent this location which is why we showed it t doesnt matter, covid cov s hi the r charl cesha, cha ,000 r,0es00ta ruresantatsantsto for afor a simeimeue don cases s nowew kwe khattta arpeting atitng ang aer very, vn ins ainndin reallyll tryin tgryo in profit andt at customers it is an a uph bat b back tbackck you. Y ouarles kristin thank y very much. Republican Budget Committee member, kevin cramer north dakota joins me. You have a ppp bill, that is gaining bipartisan support that could help struggling restaurants. Tell us about the bill and update us on the status. Thanks for the opportunity, charles. Youre right on point. Restaurants are perfect example of the type of Small Business that utilized the paycheck protection program. Remember when we designed ppp to be largely forgiven if you use the money to keep your workforce intact, whether you could stay open or were going to close, we still wanted you to have the employer and employee to be connected. Although that we had the perverse incentive for people not to work which we can talk about as well if you like. Charles right. Remembering that the whole plan was to haveost of it forgiven. Well i just was getting frustrated with the length of the bureaucracy, timeline of the bureaucracy. Sba has yet to come up with a forgiveness application, a portal, any guidance whatsoever. What if we make it simple to pass a law that find as threshold where under that thresh hold it almost certainly will be forgiven . We came up with 150,000, remembering the ppp you can borrow up to 10 million as a Small Business but at 150,000 or less, that represents 85 of the 4. 9 million loans put only represents of the 26 of the amount borrowed. What that tells you, 132 billion of the 561, 571 billion that was lent. Charles right. We one page attestation that you sign you spent the money the way you were going to, mainly to keep your payroll intact. That one page will serve as the application and the application will be automatically honored. That doesnt remove you from obligation or, you know responsibility but it would save the lender 500 per loan. It saves the borrower 2,000 per loan in compliance costs. Think of the bureaucracy it saves. The bureaucracy can focus on the top 15 which makes up the other 74 of the money. Charles and to that point, i already heard some nightmarish stories about folks who attempted to get forgiveness. They said seven challenges of hercules look like childs play but on this notion, particularly restaurants, so many states it is open, closed back down, every time that happens, restrictions, specifically on restaurants and bars, is there anything that can be done with respect to the monies that remain in the ppp fund, to really zero in on these businesses, that only need maybe another 100 grand, another 150,000. Not big chains that found a way around the system. Each franchise found a loan. Were beyond. That were back to the point trying to save businesses. I think this helps a lot. It removes anxiety from a business wants to pay it back. What about saving those that are living moment to moment. You touched on i think the bullseye. There is still 130 left in the ppp program. Which tells me we pretty much exhausted under existing rules demand for the money. We repurpose the 130 billion, add more, target exactly what youre talking about. The business that can dem strat, obviously dem stratrevenue loss, who still need a little bit after bridge to be alive at the end of this when the demand comes back because i believe it will. People love their restaurants. I love my restaurants. You can only do curbside so long. Charles yeah. We love, we love our restaurants. I got less than a minute, but i do have to ask, since youre from one of the bigger Oil Producing states, im reading a headline from investors business daily yesterday, is the american shale boom over . Im reading these over and over. Fracking miracle. Oil has come back, many stay it is too little too late. Is it . Remember this, the shale play is still in play. That regardless whatever is happening in the headlines the oil islways there. When that demand comes back i think the shale play will be just fine. Now its a tough time, dont get me wrong, even a at these prices it is still pretty low. When demand comes back the innovators will still innovate. Domestic oil is best. Light sweet crude is the very best of the best, charles. Remember, oil man knows better than anybody the cycles of oil charts. This is not unusual. Ut it is note. All that unusual. Every time somebody predicts their demise, they will fool them and they will come back. Charles yeah. I think we heard peak oil in 1960s the first time. Youre absolutely right senator, thank you very much. We appreciate the efforts youre doing for Small Businesses. Thanks for coming on the show. My pleasure. Thanks for the opportunity, charles. Charles meanwhile folks, were seeing a an acceleration in losses. All major indices at the lows of the day of the nasdaq on track for the worst session since june 11th. Well go over theoves throughout the hour. Big american businesses continue to cozy up to china if they want to fat their bottom lines. Is there ever a time to put patriotism over profits . Biotech sector has been on fire. 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