Navarro. Fomc without with the minutes from the and well comb through the minutes to bring you headlines and analysis. Stay tuned. Were ahead of the tonights Salt Lake City vicepresident ial debate. What will be discussed and what will move the needle . All that and more on making money. Charles man what a difference a tweet makes yesterday a stable market with designs of finishing higher were side swapped by a series of President Trump tweets taking fiscal stimulus off the table until after the election. Last night, well the commanderinchief clarified he would immediately sign off on relief for airlines, Small Businesses and 1200dollar stimulus checks. The market gained more than it lost. I think it is more clear it is not even an issue. This whole stimulus thing can be put on the shelf. Democrats took aim at the gatekeepers of the Digital Economy that they have monopoly power and may need to be broken up. Are the companies victims of their own success especially in the age of covid19 . Dont look now, there is also palace intrigue at the Federal Reserve. Todays minutes could reveal major dissent and move the markets. Upward bias returned to the market in a big way. Where do we go from here . I want to ask kaltbaum management president Gary Kaltbaum and jim paulson. Gentlemen, thank you very much. Gary k. , you were on the show last week. You said we hit a bottom. That we were going higher. I know a lot of you dont necessarily like the idea of President Trump negotiating via tweet. It seems to have moved the ball. Where does it life leave us with stimulus and the markets . The moral of the story, dont blink, number one and number two, i think the market is going higher in spite of the president going into the hospital. Despite the tweets, despite an election where the left is winning where they want higher taxes and more regulation. I read the tape and when the semiconductors are leading, it is usually good for the markets. Technology is in gear again. The nasdaq is a stones throw away breaking out of the range from last week. Im pretty sure it will happen the next day or two. Youre also getting a broadening out, economically sensitive names i dont usually look at like air products amazingly and sherwinwilliams, things like that. Even the financials have a little bit of a bid. I think were going higher. I think well have a pretty darn good Fourth Quarter in spite of everything we are seeing. It is just the market wants to go higher. When you have jay Powell Printing 120 billion a month, the woman, legard from the ecb, said they could lower rates even though negative 1 2 , that tells you everything you already need to know. Charles negative numbers go to infinity my friend. There is a lot of room in the negative territory. Jim, dont blink, that could be the model since President Trump took office but certainly in the last couple sessions for real. Where do you see us going from here, jim . I agree. I think were going to go higher over the next year. You know what im interested in is, i think historically there has been a wellresearched lag effect of policy, charles. That is it takes about a year or more before policies, monetary and fiscal, really have positive impact on the economy. So were just now in the Fourth Quarter perhaps get being into the window where a year ago policies might really start to come home to help the economy. All this focus on the need for more stimulus is a little odd to me, coming out of a quarter where we grew 35 . Where we just created 917,000 private sector payroll jobs with revisions. And were going to get more and more influence from the lagged effect of past policies. So i think were going to have a really good growth quarter. Maybe close to 10 and i think that will squash these fears of whether we get stimulus or not. Charles you know, interesting enough, barry, on that note, an analyst also at jpmorgan said that our economy could actually hold up, hold up well if stimulus was implemented early next year. But there is a difference though between the economy survive being and thriving. So in your mind, how important is it . Is there immediate need for it . Or is it baffling to you as well . Well, were in the early stages of the a Business Cycle. So this is when the returns are strongest. You know ive been telling investors that a new Business Cycle began on march march march 23rd n is when youre supposed to be positioned in economically sensitive sectors and this is when things are rebounding robustly. I dont, i dont think that stimulus before the election was in the market at all but listen, the mix matters. When we get into 2021 the mix of Growth Matters a lot right now. I think that is behind the momentum that jim and gary were talking about. When growth is being driven by housing which has a very strong multiplier, when Capital Spending plans are improving it looks like capex is rebounding not just in Software Like it has been for almost a decade now but also in equipment, maybe even in structures, as we rebuild supply chains. That is strong Multiplier Effect because it drives productivity and wage growth. All those things matter. The stage of stimulus matters as well. If we get into 2021, it is big openended transfers to state and local governments that allow lockdowns to continue and more expanded unemmoment insurance instead of an eitc that disincentivizes the recovery in the labor market, recall last recovery for the labor market was five years into the recovery, when we extended Unemployment Benefits that should have happened in the first year of the recovery or second. That stuff rememberses. Charles i remember that as well, barry. Im not sure the market will love it next year. Charles another big story, by the way i do remember that well. That is what a lot of politicians remember as the debate goes on. The other big story is the fight between congress and big tech. Your firm actually discussed a lot about the overwhelming stock market gains. They enjoyed them so far. Could the gateways to the Digital Economy, could they be victims of their own success . Could we actually see breakups . I think youre right about that, charles. I think theyre kind of victims of their own success. You know, in economy that wasnt growing they have been able to show spectacular growth. They became plays in the stock market that did well in bear markets and did well in bull markets, an outstanding characteristic for an investment. I think as a result of their growth when no one else was. They have become really large in the stock market and the economy in relation to the overall gdp or over all market capitalization. I believe there is some monopoly power and i think that there should be more emphasis on looking at new mergers going forward. But i think the likelihood of these being broken up, i think is low. I mean its possible if the democrats get tripower it could go there. But i think it is still low. I think more likely there will be greater scrutiny on future mergers. Charles gary k. , i think it would be nuts considering the Global Economy for us to wreck, trying to dismantle our most powerful international forces. 5678 son got an upgrade. Benchmark says the stock will go to 3800. Seems like wall street sun phased. Facebook under a little bit of pressure. You talk about the names, how critical are they not only to the economy but especially to the stock market . Im worry these people investigating asking the questions dont know a potato chip from a Semiconductor Chip yet they want to break companies up in technology. I dont understand why you want to break up greatness. I dont understand why you want to break up Companies Creating massive amounts of jobs, massive apartments of wealth. People starting at minimum wage of these places making half a million bucks a year. Making a ton of money in stocks. Yes, there are issues, i can tell you amazon has done some anticompetitive things. Guess what you do . You talk with them, sit down with them, show errors of their way. You have them fix them. If they dont fix them you do other things this is crazy to stop on greatness. The greatness of this country, you can grow as big as you want to be, as wealthy as you want to be, yet they want to take a machete and cut them off at the hips. Absolutely nuts. Charles quick. Before i go, barry, i have less than a minute. You talked about all the things in the economy. I dont know if you mentioned Consumer Confidence and where the consumer is as we talk about these tech names and consumer names. Are they positioned, do you see consumer strength coming on enough to keep this momentum going . Yeah. All the evidence is that the labor market momentum continues. I have a proxy for back to work using jobless claims and continuing claims. The latest week we produced, created 1. 6 million jobs. So i think the economic momentum is strong. Furthermore most of the stimulus money wasnt actually spent as of yet. So there is, savings rate is high. There is plenty of liquidity. Charles right. The consumer went into the Business Cycle way underlevered. It was the antithesis of the prior economic crisis. I think there is plenty of firepower left. With or without near term 1200 checks to every one. Charles by the way, we get Consumer Credit number at 3 00 p. M. A lot of people overlooked the number. Could be more important today. You guys are fantastic, gary, barry, jim, thank you very much. Always appreciate it. Meanwhile folks, Vice President mike pence and senator Kamala Harris set to face off in a much different setting than the last debate and under much different circumstances. Well have a live preview. More insight into the latest fomc meeting. Mosh on mower on the dissent and the crisis that organization has faced since the great depression. Thats next so youre a small business, or a big one. You were thriving, but then. Oh. Ah. Okay. Plan, pivot. How do you bounce back . You dont, you bounce forward, with serious and reliable internet. Powered by the largest gig Speed Network in america. But is it secure . Sure its secure. And even if the power goes down, your connection doesnt. So how do i do this . You dont do this. We do this, together. Bounce forward, with comcast business. Charles well the fed now out with its minutes from its last meeting just moments ago, the message is pretty clear, folk, they think more stimulus is needed and they think it is need the right now. Lets go to Edward Lawrence to break it all down. Reporter charles, a lot of skulks about this. This is from the september meeting. They talk about the forecast. In the forecast from all participants factored in fiscal stimulus in the second half of the year. Due to the heightened uncertainty that fiscal stimulus was important. They said a new package or going, would help a faster than expected recovery. So a new fiscal package would help boost the recovery towards the end of the year. The participants say supportive monetary policy, that they have currently and the backstops that are available would help if there is no fiscal stimulus coming but they did say that recovery would be weaker than expected if there is no more fiscal stimulus. They do also say that the, they observe the incoming data as of now because the of the cares act specifically was faster than expected, the bounceback, faster than almost all the participants expected coming back up. But again that is because of the fiscal boost which is why theyre saying we need it in the second half of the year. This meeting talked about the new framework for the Federal Reserve. The big shift, talking about an average of 2 target, allowing the economy to run a little bit hot. A shift in the maximum employment, the thinking of maximum employment, talking about the fed possibly not hitting a milestone when it gets to where it thinks unemployment bottomed out they will start raising rates, allowing the economy to run hot. All participants agree the framework review was appropriate to go forward. A lot of discussion here about Forward Guidance and extending Forward Guidance. Most participants said explicit Forward Guidance based on the federal funds rate and when it should be raised should be a criteria for lifting the federal funds rate should be in the fomc statement. A couple of participants saying even more stronger language should be in there. Less qualified, outcomebased Forward Guidance. They should be judged more clearly, maybe specialty inside of the fomc statement. So a lot of discussion about how detailed the Forward Guidance should be but again the bottom line in this reporters they believe fiscal stimulus is needed. Back to you. Charles Edward Lawrence, thank you very much. Now for more i would like to bring in former dallas fed advisor Danielle Dimartino booth. Danielle, your overall assessment. I have a lot of notes, but i want to get an idea what youre thinking after seeing the fomc, the seeing the minutes. It is pretty apparent to me there is one area of consensus within the committee, that is they want more fiscal support. We heard this from every Single Member of the fed consistently. The only question i have for fed officials which is never asked, youre mandated with maximizing employment in the United States so why do you keep on asking for the fiscal authorities to help you fulfill that mandate . Why is, why is quantitative easing only benefiting stock Market Investors and not actually trickling down through to the constituents in the economy, Small Businesses, workers in the private sector, who dont seem to be on the receiving end of fed policy. That never seems to be addressed. Charles yeah. Thats one of those questions that captain kirk used ask the aliens and shortcircuit their super evolved brains. They essentially say, why do you exist . Im not sure they want to ask that question but it is an amazing question and certainly critical right now. I want to go over a couple things, strong outcomebased guidance. It is about Forward Guidance. That is what were discussing now, what changes could be made in that, lets face it to appease the market . The market is looking for the fed to quantity tie, well not only stop until inflation is above 2 but potentially until gdp is at certain level or until the Unemployment Rate drops back down where it was when we were last comfortable with policy, comfortable enough to tighten which would be a half century low. The market knows, the constituency knows, even looking at the feds own projections they dont anticipate hitting their 2 target before the end of 2023 the fact that the markets want more explicit guidance shows how dependent they come upon the fed, being explicit before and having unemployment target before was something they had to back off doing. That is part why Robert Kaplan from the dallas fed was pushing back as much as he was. Charles real quick, danielle, you talking about the fed and the markets. You know earnings are going through the roof in the next three quarters. They were going from negative to up 44 , yet it still feels like this is a marketdriven fed. Even saying that the pandemic was disinflationary. Does that ever change, you mentioned that earlier, does that ever really change where theyre not really pushed around by the stock market . No. I think the tail will continue to wag the dog, charles and even though were going to see this massive bounceback in the Third Quarter the same thing with gdp, its still not going to bring us back to where we were prior to the pandemic, more problematically, even though well see a huge rebound in earnings, all of wall street analysts are expecting, excuse me, are expecting that revenues, that topline growth stays negative through the end of the year. That is why i think were starting to see layoffs trickle up into the whitecollar professional sectors. Charles right. Danielle dimartino booth, thank you very much. Youre absolutely one of the best when you come to this. We appreciate you help us hash it out. Coming up after the break i will be joined by alveda king on her new book, why trump. A it is a question that Vice President mike pence will have to answer in the debate with Kamala Harris. Well go live to Salt Lake City for a preview when we come back. Weve often wondered what keeps the world running. Economics . Algorithms . Magic . Turns out, its you. Doing your thing. Dreaming dreams. Building new worlds. Its why we built our workspace technology. To help you do your best work and to see what you can become. Youre made for bigger things. Charles well folks, in just hours mike pence and Kamala Harris will face off in the vicepresident ial debate. Hillary vaughn is live with a preview from Salt Lake City. Hillary . Reporter hi, charles. Well this morning on a call with reporters the Biden Campaign said theyre predicting that their opponent, Vice President mike pence will have a good debate tonight but even though they think pence will handle himself a little bit differen