Disaster. How do you prep your portfolio . We have folks to help with you that. Can nvidia pick up this market . Throughout the hour were examining selfdestruction and creative destruction. We know a lot about the latter term but what is the role of self destruction in all of that. The role of the on nip poe tent Federal Reserve which is too powerful and Impotent Congress wont do its job. Social security, happy 88th, here is the thing, the gift you may be receiving, 17,500dollar pay cut. Thats right, a cut in Social Security. This truth never shows up on wall street spreadsheets but it is real life for far too many americans. All that and much more on making money. Charles outside of retail, we have wrapped up earning, right . All these Financial Reports are in. Also weve seen the nations credit rating. That has got a downgrade. Were watching all the cold war salvos between washington and beijing. That is intensifying. It recalls paradoxical firm coined by joseph shumpeter, you know it, creative destruction. We know it all the time. It is part of the central thesis with capitalism the perennial gail of creative destruction. When capitalism is done right things get broken, new mousetraps push out old mousetraps. Over the years more and more i thought about that concept. There is another element though to it i think really plays a major role and thats selfdestruction, right . The selfdestruction is sort of the concept, it is old as humanity. This is the way Sigmund Freud sort of put it to us. We all have these instincts, he broke it down into life drives and death drives. Here is the thing, death drives, individuals have this, societies organizations and of course country. I think well try to delve into that over and over into the she because i feel like our nation, particularly the government has delved that this sort of death drive and it is hurting us badly. Think about it, massive debt, even more so to finance the government, the fight to quell inflation, probably ends up annihilating the economy. The surge in crude prices and gasoline prices, there is a reason for all of this, folks. I will bring in Bianco Research president jim bianco. Before i ask you about some of the topics of the day, your talk about selfdestruction and creative destruction, seems like they go hand in hand to me . They do. Creative destruction, joseph shumpeters greatest line is the most important thing in capitalism. It allows us to change. We allow it to change. When you stop doing that your economy runs into trouble. Look no further than china. Their economy is suffering right now and one of the biggest reasons it is suffering they wont allow it to change. Change is difficult. Change is hard. Change leads to uncertainty they dont want to see that. You become left behind. That is the risk. Charles controlled economies always run into that same problem over and over again. Let me ask you about the spike in bond yields, all right . Were here, back to 2008, this is key significant number, we get to 4. 2 or 4. 3 or higher. What is it selling you . What is the message of the bond market to you. Inflation is behind us. We have more worries about inflation, not 9 or 8 inflation but maybe three or 4 inflation. What might behind that the talk the fed is done and the fed will cutrates in 2024. The bond market might be hearing that the fed is no longer interested in fighting inflation. , if you are not interested in fighting inflation i dont want to hold your long term bonds and to that point bonds are heading higher. Charles this is gaming for the Federal Reserve. The next meeting, 90 chance they will hike, keep rates there. Then in march, the first rate cut. By the way Goldman Sachs says they see a rate cut in march. Jpmorgan sees one in the second half of the year. Of course a series are of rate cuts throughout next year. But you think this is actually making, so odd perverse way is lifting rates to a point but what im worried about is the 10year yield and 30 yearyearold continuing to take off, just getting, going parabolic from where they are now. Yeah. No, you should be worried about it because look what it is doing to Mortgage Rates. The Mortgage Rates the National Average for a 30year fixed rate mortgage, 7 1 2 . 7 1 2 just in last week. That is 22year high. Mortgage refinancing are at generational low. Because rates are so high nobody will refinance if your rate will be 7 1 2 . That is having a profound impact on the housing market. One of the big things were seeing with housing is, the number of sales is way down because people have, are what upside down world in youre locked into a 3, 4 mortgage. You dont want to give it up buy a new house to have a 7, 8 mortgage. Charles it is nuts. Refis have died. Before i let you go, another area i see our government selfdestructing the last major oil refinery in this country was built in 1977. All of sudden oil rigs, Oil Rig Count late last week, it is 525. Down significantly. It is down 14 of the last 15 weeks. By the way i will note they say well drill for record amount of cubic oil this year but when you start to see this, you wonder, golly, looks like were setup for a major spike in crude oil but that could be avoided, couldnt it . Of course it could be avoided. That always has been the problem is throughout the history of us trying to control the oil industry we wont build refineries here but we will build them in the caribbean where theyre building it. Well tanker the gasoline up to the United States. Well in the caribbean their environment at rules are nothing likes our environmental rules. If we built them here, they would be the cleanest, most efficient refineries. Instead we build them in other countries and we dont have any say over their environmental rules. We wind up making the whole situation worse. Yeah, what is resolves itself in is more expensive gasoline, more expensive crude oil and that seems to be where were going. Price of crude oil is up 25 in the last six weeks. Charles it is so crazy. It is avoidable, thats the tough part. Jim love these conversations, my man. Thank you very much. Appreciate it. Thank you. Charles folks later on in the show i will give you my take on Oliver Anthonys new song, i think wall street needs to listen to because what he is singing about never seems to show up on their spreadsheets. Lets bring in kaltbaum Capital Management president gary kaltbaum. Gary in recent weeks youre becoming more cautious particularrably with the tech names. Start with the nasdaq 100, it is breaking down, under the 50day moving average. Today it is trying to get back above there. It feels like if it doesnt find a way to reignite itself it might come down a lot. Where are you right now with respect to maybe these megacap names running out of steam . Well a few weeks ago i said i thought we had a five or 10 er coming. Were 6 right now. I think this probably a little bit more but you never know. Somebody came out and said best idea in history is nvidia and its up really nice today and getting the semis going so who knows. I think there is probably a little bit more to go. Just so you know it is normal to have 10 corrections especially for the nasdaq in bullish phases. What it does it wipes the smiles off the faces of the bulls, gets the bears ault excited again and turns up and gets going again. That is my hope. I have yet to buy back in at this juncture but i have a list of names and basically theyre the ones with greatest reaction to earnings and accelerating earnings and seals Growth Holding up next. I sit back and im patient here and i see what comes of this. Charles i will get to the list later. Nvidia, show you the chart, it is absolutely phenomenal. It has been sideways, down 8 last week, down 15 july. Talking about a 10 move, already made a 15 move again at that 50day moving average. Where woe you buy it . Youre not the type of guy who would pick a bottom, right . If you go down looks like 380 bucks from here if it were to really break down. Would you wait for it to turn and before and find a place to chase it or a place on the downside where you say it is obviously oversold . I definitely need to know something is back in an uptrend and one day doesnt do it. Now really what you have to wait for is earnings i believe in nine or 10 days. I never try to jump in front of earnings because you never know when you get gapped to the downside. I dont believe playing that game. Charles right. Leave no doubt its a stock that challenges Market Forces following it and thats what i think you got going today. So good news for the day, and hopefully it follows up to the upside. We do know one thing, they have gargantuan sales growth yearoveryear and a major acceleration and if they can announce continue ages of that i suspect it will have a really good reaction to earnings but thats all conjecture at this point. Charles right. You have to believe it will retest the high at some point. I have to go. See a word, a term not often associated with gary k, low beta. First explain to the folks at home what low beta is. Beta is the rip of the stock mark other instrument to the market. Low beta that the stock trades less volatile than the overall market. Mature Stable Companies particularly health care, utilities but these names have got necessarily done well at all. Health care showing life last couple weeks. Youre buying some of these names . I can tell you im watching United Health in the dow. It is like six points from breaking above another range. So yeah, there are a few things. Caterpillar and deere act well so yeah but on the other hend im watching amazon and google and a great reactions from earnings. Theyre sitting back to wait for the clouds career from this nasdaq correction and they go hire. Im pretty much in the big names. Im not in the small names. If these things break out i will jump all over them. Charles all right, gary, appreciate it. Thank you, charles. Folks, coming up retirees may be facing get this, brace for this how about a 17,000dollar cut in their Social Security benefits within the next 10 years . Rebecca walser has been warning us whats happening with our money. Also, were going to talk first though about playing it safe in this market which you know, policen, safety hasnt worked. There is some time or someplace you want to put that in your portfolio particularly as the market becomes more vulnerable. Callie cox has that strategy as we enter that period. Shes next. The biggest ideas inspire new ones. 30 years ago, state street created an etf that inspired the world to invest differently. It still does. What can you do with spy . Your record label is taking off. But so is your sound engineer. You need to hire. I need indeed. Indeed you do. Indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. Visit indeed. Com hire charles we all listen, flash back to december, right, the conservative approach, right . Highly advocated by everyone on wall street. It hasnt necessarily worked out. In some ways it has been a disaster. For instance, stocks with highest dividend yields this year, down on average 3 1 2 . Listen, they give dividends so that might offset this to a degree but consider the overall s p is up almost 10 . This will make you upset, stocks that dont pay any dividend up 20 . You cant make that up with a dividend, right . The reason im bringing this up, were entering a period right now where seasonally it gets a lot more choppy. The volatility should start to pick up. You see how it really pick buildings up from here. You hear a lot of people say you want to hide out through the volatility. Go book to safety. Golly, thats what you told me in january. Fool me once . I dont know. Lets bring in etoro u. S. Investment analyst callie cox who is in studio. Great having you come up. First let me ask you about this. A lot of people bought dividends at the beginning of the year. Youre saying be patient, dividends is not supposed to be a trade. What is the answer for folks who might have done this strategy feeling like golly, im missing out . I think you just said it, charles, dividend stocks are not a trade. To be fair this is a sector story. A lot of highest dividendpaying stocks have sat in sectors doing poorly. Energy, consumer staples, health care. Charles utilities. Utilities another good one. When yields are high, the economy is in kind of doubt at the moment but prices are moving higher it is not a Good Environment for dividendpaying stocks but if you hold them youre probably not a trader to be fair. Charles thats true. You didnt buy them for the First Six Months of the year. Right. Charles although some people might have in their minds been pitched that way. If were right, volatility may go up. The vix already down. Volatility moves up and down a little more. Get more 1 sessions either side of the trade do you start to do anything different . Im sticking we had a pretty good year to be fair, been good on quality risk but not giving away risk at this moment. Where we are, i think investors are recalibrating their portfolios. Economy is stronger than expected. We dont know how long that will go. Were in favor holding on to quality risk. Looking for cheaper charles come to your strategy in a second. Let me show, this is one of my favorite charts. You poeted this a week ago, i love it, first year of a bull market since 1950. What do we see here . Obviously there is bull market. Every full market had its point was tested. 1957 was the weakest test, down 5. 6 . There have been times, 14 , down 14 . For me i look at this, im saying if this is the first year of a rally and these rallies are usually multiyear i hung on for the 14 dips. Looks so obvious when you see it on a chart but in reality when things feel in doubt the first year of a bull market it is not easy to hold on when prices start selling off, you fear the worst. Charles right. You have to remember how history works. Charles at least it is good to know, right . Back of your mind, may not be the end of the world. Got a minute to go. I know that is not a lot of time but your portfolio strategy, respectable, what does that mean . Dont try to guess a top here . Respect the bull, dont s p 500 rises average of 43 in first year of bulls since 1950. On the a sector level look at cheap cyclicals. Interest rates are high, people are looking for value. Twoways to make money, charles. Finding growth, finding value. People are looking for value. Hold onto the quality risk this is bull market goes back to respect the bull. If prices move higher, economy continues surprising us, you want to hold on the quality risk and be prepared charles do you invest evenly across the spectrum or cheat one way or the other . I feel i would be overweight the bull right now. Right. Concept allly yes. Look more toward the first and third buckets. Charles okay. Maybe dip your toes in the cheaper cyclical sectors because these are longer term stories. Charles there are more insurance type stocks in this environment, would you consider that . Energy, financials, stocks tend to do well when the economy is really burning. Charles theyre starting to show some life. It is. Charles callie, thank you so much, appreciate it. Thanks for having me. Charles lets get to some money mail, weve been hit with a lot. I love it. Calling for the Financial Media to stop dissing Retail Investors hyping folks like adam neumann. Stephanie tweeting, thanks for fighting for all Retail Investors. That was awesome. One viewer asking for a name change. Charles, lets call us household investors now, instead of retail. Callie, i hope you wrote that down. Folks anymore comments about the show, questions, suggestions like that, fantastic remember always tweet me cvpayne. A new book shining a harsh light how private equity plundered Everyday Americans to fatten their own profits. I will have one of the authors next. Social security, folks, 88 years old but the gift you may be giving, lets say a 1thousand dollar cut, a cut shocking details on this and the new warnings when we come back. Dad, we got this. We got this. We got this. We got this. We got this. Yay we got this. We got this life is for living. We got this lets partner for all of it. 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The problem the development has implications that would roil the stat discuss quote across economic and political lines. Governments across the loan including the u. S. Of a, find ways to scramble, derail or she down