Congress to declare a war so this is a time when house leaders and Senate Leaders and the president need to get on the same page. Most of these countries, these countries dont have the United States best breast at heart and interest at heart and god forbid, i do not want in the worst of days for america to go through this. We have a president that declared war on American Energy and were pay ago high price in terms of economy and National Security. The theme for the market is continually ignorance is bliss. The market focuses on a handful of things and ignores everything else. Stuart good morning, everyone. 11 00 on east coast and monday, october 16th and ill call that a rally, a strong rally. Dow industrials up 400 points and nasdaq up 170, s p up 55 points. Show me big tech, please. I presume theyre all higher. I presume correctly. Microsoft, amazon, me taxer alphabet all up. So is apple. Microsoft up nearly 7 a share, 2 . The yield on the 10year treasury, wheres that going this morning . Its going up 470. Youve got a stock market rally, including the nasdaq on a day when yields on treasuries go up. Thats whats happening, now this. So here we are on a monday mornings the world is on fire and stock market barely blinks, in fact its raling. On friday, october 6, the day before the war began on israel, the dow industrial average closed at 33,400. After more than a week of fighting, that up ended a geopolitical world, the dow industrials quoted at 34,000. Stocks are up despite it all. Heres the problem going forward. This is my opinion, going forward, oil in these green times, we forget the centrality of fossil fuels to our well being and prosperity and president buyen threw away our independence and control of oil prices. A wider mideast war looming with iranian aggression at the center and oil patch may be consumed in the fighting and the price would go up and odds are the market will go down. Think about it, please, israel will retailuate against irans oil industry retaliate against the Iran Oil Industry if theyre overwhelmed by an onslaught of rockets by hezbollah. Dont look for saudi arabia to pump more oil and the Petroleum Reserve because biden depleted it and Domestic Production cant be ramped up quickly because biden starved it of capital. Going green on day one of presidency was a bold move now war in the mideast upset all the green dreams. Oil can still shake the economy. The market, our prosperity and biden presidency and thats what were looking at right now. Third hour of varney starts now. Stuart all right, steve forbes with us this morning. Steve, i presume you saw this and america is easing sanctions on venezuela so they can send us more oil. What do you make of that . First, its rotten oil, very, very heavy oil, dirty oil and its been done in the promise that venezuela will hold free elections as joe and stalin in the soviet union after world war ii and we need more energy and take the cloud, the cloud absorbs more energy, twice as much as the nation of japan. Third largest in the world. We need more energy, not less and not certainly the dirty kind from venezuela. Stuart if this i mean, if there was a wider war and oil went to 10 o 0 a barrel, pure speculation here, if that happened, would that really shake our economy . Sure, it would shake the Michigan Energy is priced into everything including people buy lipstick, guess what, thats a petroleumbased product these days. Another thing to keep in mind, which sounds very ominous but the israelis will look at it after what happened on october 7, what do we do about Irans Nuclear capability . Are they going to let iran become a Nuclear Power . That has to be addressed sooner rather than later. Iran is on the cusp of a nuclear device. This thing goes even beyond oil. This is bad. Thats what you get from appeasement. Stuart wall street journal says a recession is no longer the consensus among economist. You agree with that . Well, the consensus thats usual i will wrong. Theres real head winds out there starting with the regulations, capital regulations theyre putting on banks that will make lending even harder going into the future. So theres very serious head winds and maybe the people, the theologians and economics wont call it a recession, but a choppy economy and not a very prosperous one and thats why all the regulations coming, we need a new regime next year, a pro growth regime. Stuart and a wider war would really hurt our economy, presumely . Look what happened at yom koppur war in 1973, terrible recession. Stuart got it. Steve forbes, thank you for being with us. Much obliged to you. A video from 2019 resurfacing where congresswoman Rashida Tlaib was asked if israel has the right to exist. Lauren separate but equality does not work but didnt explicitly say israel does not have the right to exist then back in 2019. I would say she showed disdain at the person asking her the questions. Watch here. [inaudible]. Would you like to answer the question . Congresswoman, its concerning that you dont believe israel should exist . Oh my god, do you understand what that mean s . I actually do. Lauren so rude. So rude. Are you paid by benjamin netanyahu. Look at her comments now calling off u. S. Funding for israel. Condemning the violence but in no way showing support or even feelings towards the children and the babies and the women raped and kimed. Stuart that was hillary again, wasnt it . Lauren i think this was on tuesday. Yes, this is when hillary was asking her the question over and over and asked her eight times what do you say about the children beheaded. Silence. Stuart i think the democrats have a problem with the left. Put it like that. Well, yeah. Her fellow democratic michigan congresswoman wants her to be centtured. Stuart dow up 400, nasdaq up 164 and s p up 54 points and all up much better than 1 . Jason katz with us to figure out whats going on here. Is the market ignoring the threat of a wider war . Thats a rally. For now. Stuart for now, yes. So the focus has been on fed and rates. Today with withstanding were seeing rat rates up tick and oil down. You see equities hold on. If this war escalates and if theres greater entanglement, youre going to see oil get to maybe 95 or 100 a barrel. Thats a tax on the world consumer and the World Business and keeps the fed at bay respect to ultimately cutting rates. They need to keep that hour and quiver down the road in the event we get that high end oil. Stuart the threat of a wider saratoga a bigger threat hanging over everything, the world chips act and our stock market . You cant how do you take act of that. If this happens, what are you supposed to do . Look, in the short run, the ash torr of stocks is Interest Rates and thats how you value them and elevated Energy Prices and attacks on the consumer, its a tax on every business because as steve forbes pointed out, its in virtually every single product. As an investor, and terrible Silver Lining and awful gray cloud i would submit that Energy Stocks are the most undervalued ive seen in three decades on wall street. And oil headed to 95 or 100 a barrel. With us not here were lifting sanctions with iran. Stuart venezuela. Excuse me, venezuela. This all results in Energy Prices that remain elevate that had elevate and dont guarantee recession risk. Stuart tell me whats wrong with 5. 5 on 6month treasury security. Nothing wrong with cash and cash alternatives. I would say to you you may want to look towards municipal bounds and if youre a new York Resident and in the highest tax bracket, youre getting over a 6 plus percent tax equivalent yield and lock in some higher rates before the fed next year or 18 months from now starts to cut rates so, yes, have money in t bills but look to actual bonds, Municipal Bonds where you get paid to wait. Stuart good advice and ive taken it. Good luck indeed. Thank you, jason. Come back n lauren. Were looking at movers and i know that lululemon is moverring up. Lauren cant ignore 10 gain. Huge gain and huge volume. The news is lululemon joins s p 500 wednesday before the start of trading. This exposes the stock to more buyers essentially so up it goes. Stuart macys up today. Lauren its a department store. Theyve been struggling, cfra says buy macys and they think the stock thering to 19 from about 11 now and like Inventory Management and like theyre paying down the debt and they say their Digital Business is solid. Stuart snap, i cant remember whether its up or down . Lauren up big time. It is up almost 9 and microsoft is up almost 2 . Stuart is there a connection. Lauren they rolled out my ai earlier in year in april. Customers use article intelligence to book residents and sports news and 150 million users in the past couple months sending 10 billion plus messages to my ai on snap chat making it one of the most widely used customer chat bots. Stuart good for microsoft too. We like it. Good for stuart varney. Stuart yes. We know you love it. Stuart i hope the world knows that. Im under obligation, if i own a stock, i have to tell the world about it so i cant grind their ax for them. I own a thin sliver opportunistic microsoft and im a happy guy. Moving on, senator mitt romney claims americas involvement in the world is in the worlds best interest. Watch this. Were involved in the world because its in americas interest, its in israels interest, its in all of our allys interest and the worlds interest. Stuart he had a lot more to say and well tell you what else. Foreign minister warned an Israeli Ground offensive in gaza could force iran to intervene. Benjamin hall has the full story after this. Youre probably not easily persuaded to switch mobile providers for your business. But what if we told you its possible that comcast business mobile can save you up to 75 a year on your wireless bill versus the big three carriers . Have we piqued your interest . You can get two unlimited lines for just 30 each a month. There are no Term Contracts or line activation fees. And you can bring your own device. Oh, and all on the most reliable 5g mobile network nationwide. Wireless that works for you. Its not just possible. 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Minister warns an Israeli Ground offensive in gaza forces iran to intervene. Benjamin hall here with us. Tell us more about the iranen threat. Well, stuart, all along weve been saying iran plays a key role behind the scenes and behind the strings and we see secretary blinken touring the region and Iranian Foreign minister has been doing same and hes been vocal about what should happen if iran continues. Yesterday he met the leader of hamas in qatar and hugs between the two and if the gaza offensive continues and israel keeps dropping the bombs, iran will get involved and iranian hands he said are already on the trigger. He then warned and threatened america as well saying it this does expand, there would be significant damages which would occur on the u. S. Now on the ground around israel, were seeing them escalate as well and iranianbacked hezbollah are firing at the moment and antitank missiles and rockets at israel and more iranian weapons are on way towards parts of the region. Seven trucks are blown up inside syria believed to be carrying weapons and israelis did that and hit the aleppo airport and more iranian weapons are flying in and we now know that iranianbacked military leaders from iraqi militias moved toward the border with fighters and very clear iran is actively moving peep, moving weapons in that direction. Now on the american side, administration keeps trying to warn iran off and sent two Aircraft Carrier groups to the region and Jake Sullivan, National Security adviser said theyve reached out directly to iran and warned them to stand down. On the republican side, you have Lindsey Graham being far firmer and he said to iran if you escalate, iran, were coming for you. But its not just iran. This is also on a global level. Weve we got a glimpse of that the other day when a cachet of weapons that hamas was using and inside there many maid made by hamas and many weapons came from china. From north korea, from russia, and it is a reminder that all these countries are working together. They would all like to degrade the u. S. And perhaps they think that right now its a great way of doing so. Dont forget over the last year, iran has done deals with venezuela and russia and china and saudi arabia and look back and wonder whether or not enough was done to keep iran down and sanctions enough and giving 6 billion and Jake Sullivan say ago few weeks ago the u. S. Is as peaceful as in 20 years and a lot of questions asked over if that was handled the right way and more questions on where this goes, and whether or not iran gets involved. Stuart. Stuart great work. Benjamin, great reporting again indeed. Im sure youll see you real soon. Meanwhile, squad member ilhan omar being criticized after retweet ago photo after the war. Ashley, come in and what was the photo about . Ashley yeah, she was slammed for retweeting the photo of dead children with the caption child genocide in palestine. Well, the photo showed seven dead children wrapped in white and claimed they were part of the 614 palestinian children murdered by israeli forces. A Community Note from x, formally known as twitter of course, stated that the picture was actually from a 2013 syrian gas attack in syria and not from the hamas war. Omar then unretweeted the photo from all the backlash and criticism. Fellow squad member alexandria ocasiocortez issued a warning about the amount of misinformation on social media about the ongoing war and urged her followers to pause and check for verification. Something that omar did not do apparently. Stu. Stuart correct, ashley. Correct indeed. Now this, President Biden once again warning that maga republicans could make the world more dangerous. Watch this. Look, this is not your photos Republican Party. They dont look at it the same way you and i look at democracy. Stuart andy barr will respond to that. The house is expected to vote on a new speaker tomorrow, but nearly five dozen republicans still refuse to back jim jordan. Will they get will they ever get a deal done . Chad pergram has the story from cap holohill next. Capitol hill next. You cant buy great conversations or moments that matter, but you can invest in them. At t. Rowe price our strategic investing approach can help you build the future you imagine. T. Rowe price, invest with confidence. Teeth sensitivity is so common. It immediately feels like somebodys poking directly on the nerve. I recommend sensodyne. Sensodyne toothpaste goes inside the tooth and calms the nerve down. And my patients say you know doc, it really works. bobby my store and my Design Business . Were exploding. But my old internet, was not letting me run the show. So, we switched to Verizon Business internet. 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