Transcripts For FBC The 20240703 : vimarsana.com

FBC The July 3, 2024

Go find somewhere else. Charles it works easier leaving the coming end. Theres no locks on the inside of the doors. Liz great to see you. Buck let for a huge week was somebody potential drivers you are going to need charles and me to keep you and your money on track lets start with here now a nice rally as we kickoff the final hour of trade, it was even further just a few minutes ago the dow gaining at the high of the session 460 points right now were at 375, the s p which had fallen 43 points on friday is up 61 blanking out all the losses and more back about 5000, we have the nasdaq better but 222point to 1. 5 and the russell 2000 which showed a small gain on friday adding more 27 points at the moment after an atrocious week for the nasdaq that lost five and half that was the worst Weekly Performance since 2022, we need to look at nvidia a big part of the nasdaq loss was attributed to the heavy chunk that snapped off the magnificent seven rockstar friday the a. I. Chipmaker plunged 10 that was the biggest oneday decline ever for the stock it is gaining back 4. 5 at the moment were 35 box 2797, still year to date shares of looking at a 60 gain, not bad earnings front and center for. Seven, four of them report quarterly numbers tesla tomorrow then meta, google and microsoft first up tomorrow after the bell the ev maker shares of tesla at the very bottom of the nasdaq 100 down three and a quarter marking another fresh 52 week low, investors waking up to a hangover from last weeks recall of 4000 cyber trucks due to an accelerator pedal issue in a pile of fresh headlines including price cuts of u. S. Chinese and germanmade model wise exes and asses, as the stock began to recoil we go back to december, the future funds gary black was already peering his 100,000 share stake in the company. Coming up gary is here to explain why the new price cuts are misguided and damaging but he will also tell you when he will push the buy button hes not totally out he wants to push the buy button again and will give you the level he needs to see. Lets look at bitcoin which dip below 60000 friday the much awaited having event. Right now trading hands at 66350. A nice move up 3 on the upside, what is next as a catalyst for the crypt of record, bitcoin billionaire brock pierce is going to join us live, lets throw the same question at the market overall with the third of the s p ready to report earnings this week will that be the thing that propels or pulls back equities. Were joined by ubs private Wealth Management allie mccartney, we are emerging from but a lot of people felt was extreme pessimism but i dont know if thats even really fair, we have to get perspective. The s p looked at sixmonth returns. That are the best in Something Like 80 years. Its crazy, with your talking about a pendulum swing thats gone from over enthusiasm and extreme optimism pricing in the goldilocks scenario and rate cuts of 150 basis points at the beginning of the year to what feels like a lot of pessimism. 19 jump over six months. Its pretty crazy, that. Seven had a lot to do with nvidia in the First Quarter of the year was 20 of that move, what we are seeing now is a rereading of Interest Rates and a rereading of how the fed is going to deal with the strength in the economy. A little bit of sticky inflation and resilient jobs market, great consumer sentiment. The market is trying to find its feet between interestrate movements and earnings as you discussed. Focus which way to aim the focus the laser point on the horizon. If you look this week it could be the economic data. We can put up a calendar tomorrow were getting gdp im sorry wednesday gdp, thursday we have durable goods wednesday, gdp on thursday and that will be for the first. And friday the biggie the inflation gauge core pce, what are you looking for here what will that do for the markets or even meet expectation. If it meets or beats the market going to continue which has basically been driving the markets here which isnt a lack of selling pressure is a lack of buying back into the market with the cash on the sidelines and you should expect the gdp is going to be strong, that is going to continue to be so, you should expect the pce to have that component where oil has been as basis points for the pce and were looking for directionality, the market right now is pricing in 46 48 basis points of interestrate cuts. Liz if we could put up the financials on the screen, something that would show that indicates theyre doing very well today but then they done poorly that there was a perception that the fed will not cut rates until the end of this year, certainly by september. Financials has been a beneficiary of having Net Interest Income in a very long time with Interest Rates but then the concern if rates go down what does that mean for them. We saw them lead off the season with a lot of strong words about their clients both on the consumer side and on the corporate side and a lot of them were not seen bad credit losses and they let reserves out. Theyre doing well, the question is going to be what we see this week. We think earnings are going to go up 6 9 this year followed by 6 next year. Goldman sachs, j. P. Morgan, clearly the financials are having a great day lets talk about valuations in the s p 500 and theres still a little rich, 21 times forward earnings, the historical average is more like 15. If you start to split that out it is rich, dont get us wrong, the target for the end of the year is 5200 where weve been for a lot of this year already. As many go is 5700. 5700 is probably a stretch, you never know. Our best Case Scenario is 5400 and is solidly at 5400 for Wealth Management 52, i think we could get there. The earnings number in the evaluation number were full valued but also driven by a few stocks the high market cap. As you start to see all of the others come into the market in the gap she very seen happening with value stocks coming up and coming to meet the Growth Stocks was small and midcap coming back as they look to last costly debt. I think you will see continued market breath. If you see continued market breath and you continue to see that driven to earnings, the other w thing about earnings not only are we looking at her news for this quarter but were looking at what were guiding for next quarter and that remain strong. That is where to look and the markets are going to have to look at the pc on friday. Liz at the moment the devil 358 and the nasdaq powering ahead by 217. Thank you very much. One of the former Growth Stocks, we have to look at is tesla more headlines hitting tesla according to a bloomberg report, the ev maker has cut its entire Marketing Team this move comes less than a year than elon musk approved the company taking a traditional advertising str strategy, so much for that they disassembled the new unit lets bring in future Fund Managing partner gary black he recently pared back his funds 100,000 share position in the stock. How much do you have now and why do you begin peering back well before this big downturn began. Weve been. A back for 18 months this is our largest position to september 22 it was 12point to percent and today its about 26, 27. What we didnt like was the fundamentals look like they were deteriorating and they started to cut price which we thought was senseless and cutting price is fine if you mention cost decline but they were starting a price for which they did in china. Its come back to bite them. When elon started to cut price he was trying to clean up all the inventory discount, basically discounting inventory in the inventory discount, lets drop the price, what happens is you start training consumers to wait for a deal and the inventory discounts came back at the lower prices, thats what happened the last 18 months, one of the things that got us nervous, the price cut seem to be continuing and remember we had a cfo there who gave a promise last year that margins when a drop below 20 in Gross Margins at a 15 range in one of the things that concerns us, elon will say things like we can bring Gross Margins down to 0 and make it up on fsd which we think is silly people are not going to pay, its 8000 or 99 a month and less is perfect and actually drives itself which it doesnt. Weve always been back to the advertising team, trying, educating people who own eyes cars and internal Combustion Engine cars, why evs are better and why theyre cheaper, the charging convenience, more power, good for the environment. Liz he is not doing that he has decided they should not do that. With the low numbers in japan i believe a month or two ago where he said maybe we have to advertise, maybe were not just a different car company anymore which brings me to afford, for it is the best performer on the s p 500 today under real dramatic announcement and maybe it has to do with the fact that volkswagen in the United States and their workers just voted to join the uaw which means you might not have a wage gap between ford and volkswagen, when you look at how ford is trading do investors have to look at tesla as another u. S. Car Company Versus some Technology Company or a. I. Technology as Professor John galloway likes to say lose the jazz hands your car company even as he says lets go to robo taxi. Tax tesla is a tech company. It trades at 60 pe Card Companies like ford and gm trade at six times because people rightly or wrongly still believe that tesla can grow unit that 15 or 20 and earnings at 25 or 30 but the pe multiple is being called into question because now you have volumes actually shrinking volumes of the First Quarter shock by 8. 5 we expect them to shrink for the full year of 24. Back i went to the worst of both worlds price cuts and the consumer has been trained for more price cuts and i have volumes falling in tesla will say this, the in between two growth rates. That gets back to the 25000 which we were very helpful. That was supposed to come out late next year one things were going to listen to, is also happening if it doesnt its good because the multiple because you dont have the growth. Liz lets talk about the price target that you have which is 200 a share. Yet youre not in the stock, when do you think that happens and is a have to hit that before you buy it we have it at 142 right now. Price targets are theoretical numbers, there based on discounted or earnings discounted back. The Reference Number its one data point will be use will be think about we still own tesla but is small compared to where was we feel like we de risked it but we look at estimates and whats going to happen over the next few quarters in terms of volume and margins and the challenge that we have, because elon musk seems to be back in the motive, lets cut price to move volume you can see estimates fall further, our downside price target is the upside, our downside we think the stock would fall to 120 level if the market says the good to keep cutting prices ended only put us at 40 50 and today is trading at 60. For not ready to pull the trigger and own it inside like we used to we just dont see a clear path to getting back to 25 or 30 growth, i could be convinced that 25000 car was going to come out at the end of next year, i think that is future expanding to the mass segment, if i could be convinced we would be more optimistic but thats not what im hearing elon musk say that is something well be paying attention to tomorrow. Liz asked to. Thank you very much. Gary black, lets keep in mind that elon musk almost lost this company when all the shortsellers were trying to crush it and this past year the model why was the most popular car on planet earth, the bestseller. Elon musk tries to set tesla, fox nation take a deep dive on the billionaire im part of the team trying to answer the question who is elon musk. Streaming right now on fox nation and you should watch all the other profiles of the worlds most successful people all this week who is jeff bezos launches tomorrow and who is Mark Zuckerberg available wednesday only on fox nation. Hamas has moved at the moment and we have breaking news, the state department is now saying that there is news regarding hamas, stay tuned. We are coming right back. Is bad debt holding you back . The only limit is the sky its our time you dont want to miss it just a little bit louder its our time you dont want to miss it its your moment in the spotlight all your ambitions. All in one app. Low fixed rates. Borrow up to 100k. No fees required. Sofi. Get your money right®. Sup . Who are you . Im your inner child. Get in. Listen, what you really need in life is some freakin torque. What . Horsepower keeps you going, but torque gets you going. What happened to my inner child craving love and acceptance . How about you love and accept this . 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Liz breaking news the state Department Spokesperson matt miller just said at the Daily Briefing militant group hamas has moved the goalpost and changed his commands and the hostage negotiation with israel the talks mediated from egypt and qatar aim to free the 100 hostages including under six americans with two hot wars raging around the world both in israel and ukraine the senate is expected to pass a 95 billion foreign aid package which the house approved this weekend in the senate is expected to do that as early as tuesday and send it to the president s desk and President Biden said he will sign it. Heres the breakdown 60 billion for ukraine. 26 billion for israel and 8 billion for the indo pacific region. Joining me now former commander for u. S. Central command general keith Frank Mckenzie who is the author of a new book the melting point which will be available in june. We are melting right now and if you look at the breaking news i want your reaction hamas says move the goalpost again and israel is the one claimed for the hostages not coming back. As we shouldnt be surprised hamas has moved the goalpost again to get a hold onto the hostages to the veteran and one advantage that they had as they held a larger palestinian population of gaza hostages and human shields for the last six months there to hold these people to the very end im not surprised that they moved the goalpost and i would expect them to continue to do that. They know once they give them up there will be nothing between them and the israeli forces. Liz commander from 2019 to 2022 the israeli aspect of the aid package that were getting now goes to something that youre familiar with a huge portion will go or a large portion to the iron dome the defense weapons that are able to intercept all kinds of missiles coming in from obviously iranian over a weekend ago 300 different missiles and suicide drones attacked israel. Also the money iron Defense System to counter shortrange rockets. Considering iran attacked israel for the first time directly ever week and a half ago, give us your sense of whether the 26 billion is enough to help israel. I think its a good start and what happened with iranian attack on israel is a stunning israeli operational victory in every way you can look at it i rain and snow this in any observer that understands missiledefense knows the scope and scale of what the israelis accomplished with our help and the help of other friends and neighbors in and out of the region. Is largely the israelis that defended their country and they did a remarkable job. I think the money will be effective as we bolster up in the iron dome and davids sling, the patriot systems. Its all a complex ecosystem of defensive things that blend together and what we call integrated air and Missile Defense weve come a long way in the region under the concept. Liz i know that syncom does not cover ukraine but your understanding of war and democracy and protecting democracy is very broad. The money expected to get to ukraine is desperately needed yuppie ukrainian morell on the troops level very low they have run out of shells and its running very, very low. How important do you think it is to get the money to ukraine to push back Vladimir Putin and authoritarian who made them push into poland. I think its vital. I t

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