Paul welcome to the journal of soil report, the president ial race remains a tossup with a real pure politics boeing average showing Kamala Harris and Donald Trump locked in a dead heat nationally. In the seven Swing States that will likely determine the outcome of the 2024 election. Will this have any lasting effect on the race as the campaign enters the final stretch. Lets ask karl rove. You wrote a common, on Trumps Performance but the question is how lasting will the impact be, if there is any . I dont think it is as good for harris as her camp thinks and as bad for the Trump Campaign as they might fear but nOnetheless remember how tight this is. You talked the national numbers, the real clear politics average, the 538 average in each of the seven battleground states. Real clear politics, only in two of the seven states, Arizona For Trump and wisconsin for harris is the difference between the two candidates larger than 1 . Same thing at 538. Its only two states, in wisconsin and michigan. We are talking, lets assume this has a One or 2 impact on the electorate, that could be decisive. In the real clear politics average, 262 votes for Donald Trump, 257 for joe biden, 19 votes in pennsylvania which they call tied up. Here it it is 236 for trump to 292 for harris but again, five of the seven State Suffering by less than a point. Paul the Pet Campaign Pollster sent out a memo that their surveys show the movement among undecided voters was towards trump. Do you believe that . Every other poll shows since the debate shows that the movement has been towards Harris Albi at very modest. I am always suspicious of campaigns that issue their own numbers to correct the bad day. Right now the evidence leans the other way. Modestly, we are talking changes in these polls, of the four polls the biggest changes two points. Paul the other argument you hear from some trump folks and even fairminded people who arent connected with the campaign in the press is the what harris didnt do in that debate is give some of these Swing Voters enough information about her views particularly on the economy, with all her attacks On Trump which were effective and got him playing defense they dont know enough about harris to come to her side. What do you think of that . Theres a lot to that argument. The campaign comes to an issue of which person do you believe has a better chart of handling the challenges of the next four years. Thats partly based on the perception of the issues and on that trump has the advantage on the economy, inflation, The Border. She has it on abortion. The other part of the consideration is personal characteristics of the candidates. On those she stands on better ground. She cares about people like me, they they see her as having a plan. We can sit here and say she doesnt, but she has modestly got a lead on the question of does she have a plan for the future . If shes going to drive this home she has to create a sense that she has a Second Term agenda. Both these candidates are running for their Second Term. She for the biden harris administration, he for his own Second Term. People need to know that they have an agenda. She didnt do enough in the debate to drive that home but she didnt need to because she kept him on his back feet the entire time and he did not press the advantage he has on critical issues of inflation, economy, and The Border. Paul do you think thats One of the reasons the Harris Campaign says it wants a second debate . They want that opportunity for the largest audience available which comes in a debate, press the question more, answer that question more about what she stands for on the economy . Perhaps but i have a more machiavellian interpretation. I think they want to talk about the debate because it chews up time. We have 50 days left. Every day spend not talking about the economy, inflation, and The Border is a day she wins. Every day spent talking about abortion is a day she wins, every day spent talking about process issues like how to have a second debate is a day wasted and she doesnt mind wasting that day. She understand his mindset once he gets stuck on something that he sometimes changes, not if it makes him look weight. Anything to describe the second debate changing his mind on it would make him look weak. He says no, you only want to second debate if you lost and i won that overwhelmingly and i think its more machiavellian. Paul with trump, you think hes dOne with this because hes being a negotiator, just doesnt want to do a debate on nbc or some network, he wants to do it on fox and he will come around to that. He needs it after he. The first One. That would mean he is surrounded by people telling him youve got a problem. You Cant Fix a problem unless you recognize the problem. Im not sure he is surrounded by people who say he lost the debate. He thinks on some level he scored the points and won. This all boils down to the internal dynamics. When you have matt gaetz, Tulsi Gabbard as your Debate Team and debate confidants i dont know you are getting the true story. Paul that statement of understatement. Still ahead in the wake of tuesdays first and perhaps only debate Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are barnstorming the battleground states. With 8 weeks to go can the former President Move past his grievances and expose the Vice President s progressive agenda . We will ask our panel next. Type 2 diabetes . Discover the ozempic trizOne. I got the power of 3. I lowered my a1c, cv risk, and lost some weight. In studies, the majority of people reached an a1c under 7 and maintained it. Im under 7. 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When you need to remember, remember neuriva. Paul in the wake of Tuesdays Showdown in philadelphia, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump barnstorming about ground states making appearances in arizona, nevada, North Carolina, and pennsylvania as the two candidates look to persuade undecided voters. Trump said thursday that there will be no second debate with harris after what many believe was a missed opportunity for the former president to expose her progressive agenda. Lets bring in our panel, dan heninger, Jason Riley and bill mcgurn. You wrote this week that trump did not do well and harris didnt put away the race. The nature of the debate. Certainly i dont think trump did well though he himself said it was the deep best debate here at which is a good reason not to have a secondment because he wont get better than what he did in the first One. Kamala harris spent the entire debate attacking and dumping accusations on Donald Trump. The conventional wisdom was trump should stay away from personal attacks and stick to policy and Kamala Harris shows up and does exactly the opposite. We have to keep in mind that this debate is in the hands of the socalled undecided voters in seven Swing States. A very small sliver of the electorate. If they were watching i think there take away was her attacks on him were overthetop. I think so. Secondly it was pretty clear that abc was much gentler on her than it was on him. The other reality out there is a lot of people distrust the mainstream media. I think the combination of harris spending all this time attacking trump and getting help from abc on it has to cause a lot of undecided voters to say i am not so sure about Kamala Harris because i didnt get a clear idea what she wants to do for her opportunity economy. Paul harris didnt do more to separate herself from President Biden on a host of issues, afghanistan for example, she didnt make any distinction on the economy or inflation. Were you surprised . Not really. She did what she set out to do. She is wanting us, the Change Candidate and she wanted people to be reminded of what the past looked like, Button After button and let trump be trump and say look at that, you want four more years of that and it worked, she had him talking january 6th, she had him talking about 20 20 election, his legal problems, his crowd sizes. It worked and i think she decided im going to double down on that. The second part of her strategy, not unreasonable is to be as vague as possible about what shes going to do going forward. All she wants to know is im not going to be like this guy over here. I have a plan she kept saying so i think she set out to achieve those objectives and she didnt achieve those objectives. Paul can she continue this Levitation Act . EveryOne says she can. I agree with dan that what she didnt do, remember coming into the debate, the expectations were so low, when Donald Trump said shes low iq, low intelligence, stupid, she didnt show that and the previous interviews with Lester Holt on The Border, a lot of people thought she was going to implode and she held her own for 90 minutes, started out a little shaky, she really did debate him on the crowd size, here we go. As soon as she brought up the crowd size. If you watched it without sound, you see Kamala Harris smiling, looking good calm and cool and Donald Trump looking good angry and jumbling sentences. May not have got her a lot of points but it is a shot of confidence. John paul Donald Trump making another Tax Cut Proposal saying he doesnt want to tax overtime wages, no tax on tips, no tax on Social Security Benefits. Is well over 2 Trillion in those Tax Cuts over ten years. It presents an intriguing element into the election at this point with trump making these proposals, he has a better hand on the Economy And Inflation and that is the big issue that remains on the table with undecided voters, no question about it but if they are paying Attention Theyve got to start asking themselves how is he possibly going to pay for all of these Tax Cuts because that is in some ways Kamala Harriss biggest weakness. All of her proposals are Tax Credits and spending and the government helping people, that is what he should have attacked in the debate but now that he has introduced how do you pay for these massive Tax Cuts which are not going to get through congress, undecideds are going to have to make a decision, who alternately would be best handling the economy. Paul Kamala Harris and Donald Trump traded barbs over National Security records but did either candidate convince voters that they are qualified to be the next commanderinchief . Ren. 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The leaders of other countries think that they are weak and incompetent and they are. They are grossly incompetent. I agree with President Bidens decision to pull out of afghanistan. Four president s said they would. Joe biden did. These people to the worst withdrawal, the most embarrassing moment in history of our country. That is why russia attacked ukraine because they saw how incompetent xi and her boss are. Paul Kamala Harris and Donald Trump traded barbs over Foreign Policy records tuesday with each accusing the other of being weak on National Security. The Vice President defending the biden Administrations Withdrawal from afghanistan. Either candidate make a strong case to be the next commanderinchief . Donald trump has been commanderinchief. Kamala harris has not. So she has a higher bar here. How well did she do making that case . Shes still a cipher. We dont know much. She was the last person in the Room Biden talked to, i heard a piece in the Washington Post on friday that said talking about her as commanderinchief and talk about the Situation Room and how people say she asked good questions, both sides as a lawyer would. That is not what makes commanderinchief. You have to be decisive on issues sometimes with incomplete education about what is going on. I am not sure she made that sale. All these insiders, so good and smart and the face of questions. Afghanistan, shes associating herself with that terrible decision. She couldnt distance herself. She could have but this is where her Debating Skills showed themselves. So here is an issue as you said where she could distance herself from biden. She didnt. She flipped and this was very strategic. She not only said trump is weak, she said that other international leaders were laughing at him. Thats pushing trumps buttons. She knew that would get a rise out of him. He took the bait. He went after all those hungarian voters that are out there by mentioning Victor Or Bond and went off on a tangent. Instead of narrowing in on the afghanistan problem, just had a report by the house of representatives, he could have gOne, could have pressed her on that but she pushed the right buttons so he was moving on to things she wanted him to be talking about instead of her Week Record on National Security. Paul the point he often makes, i was commander in chief, no wars on my watch, nobody dared another country on my watch, people think i am in fact strong. How persuasive is that argument . As persuasive as these undecided voters think it is. He can raise the or of strength that sort of thing. He was tougher clearly on iran than the Biden Administration has been. They pulled back on the sanctions, the iranians were supporting hamas, hezbollah, the houthis and their proxies in the middle east. That was existing tissue that didnt come up in the debate but it is out there.