GBPUSD Price Forecast: Either a New Phase of 15-Month Bull Leg or Reversal 2021-05-30 00:00:00 John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist GBPUSD, EURGBP, GBPJPY and GBPAUD Technical Forecast Talking Points: GBPUSD is just below the midpoint of the range carved out over the previous 7 years with the smallest 8-day range since June 2019 A Sterling break seems a high probability in the proximate future (next few weeks) but broader market conditions will dictate timing Among the Pound crosses, GBPJPY stands out as it ended this past week with a charge to a 5-year range high Technical Forecast for British Pound: Bearish There are plenty of markets with impressive technicals to draw upon, but few have the same density of consequential resistance and support as the British Pound crosses. However, the presence of these patterns and barriers does not ensure a critical break – much less follow through. The critical consideration in this technical potential is market conditions such as liquidity and the broader market’s propensity to forge trends. We seem to have found a sharp decline in liquidity heading into the extended US/UK holiday weekend, but I wouldn’t expect markets to simply be down through the remainder of the ‘Summer doldrums’. A pair with truly appealing near and long-term potential is GBPUSD (‘cable’). The past 8-days of trading which have represents consolidation below 1.4200 represents the smallest historical range over that period as a percentage of spot since June 2019. In other words, a break is probable. The question is what direction it takes. It is certainly possible for a bullish resolution as that is the prevailing trend, but overhead is the 50 percent Fib of the readily registered range from 2014 to 2020 at 1.4300. The ‘path of least resistance’ is lower which runs into a pivot level at 1.40 and then the trend-defining 100-day moving average around 1.3900. If markets don’t shift back into high gear for trend development, I believe a bearish resolution is more likely to find follow through.