~4.1% With production already struggling to meet demand over the previous two years, the problem came to a head in 2020. MarketWatch writes that normality is still a long way off. "We believe semi companies are shipping 10% to 30% below current demand levels and it will take at least 3-4 quarters for supply to catch up with demand and then another 1-2 quarters for inventories at customers/distribution channels to be replenished back to normal levels," said Harlan Sur, an analyst with J.P. Morgan. Susquehanna Financial analyst Christopher Rolland said chip shortages would worsen as we head into spring as economies open up following lockdown easing and continuing vaccine rollouts. Lead times—the length of time between an order being placed and delivery—are entering a "danger zone" of above 14 weeks, the longest they've been since 2018.