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he was a senior data journalist and u.s. correspondent for the economist. and he is the author of strength in numbers, how polls work and why we need them. we'll get to the data in a moment, but the intangible all of a sudden, the weather. going to be cold. to me that says whoever has the most passionate base is going to come out and provide victory for their candidate. your thought. >> yeah, look, it will be minus 20, minus 30 windchill in iowa. i do expect that that will have some impact on the race. we can expect in other words some level of polling error i would suspect. just because you already brought up the historical data. and i'll just cite there is usually five percentage point difference between how a candidate isle forring and the actual share of the vote that they get. so some precedent for sure price. you add on top of that the nasty weather, i expect as you say