Expected Points Added I’ve also calculated Expected Points Added for all the plays, which we get from knowing every down/distance/field position has a value, based on how many points an average offense is likely to score that drive. So for example: It’s 3rd and 14 on the Indiana 42 = 1.3 expected points* Ronnie Bell makes a 17-yard catch. Now it’s 1st and 10 on the Indiana 25 = 4.3 expected points Ronnie Bell’s catch equals 4.3 minus 1.3, or 3 EP. I treated touchdowns as 6.971 points, and adjusted all of these for opponent, based on Bill Connelly's SP+. So for example this play which started at 1st and 10 from the Michigan 30 (1.3 EP) was adjusted down from 5.66 to 5.38 because Minnesota’s defense is terrible.