Deal and the middle east. You can never get perfection. Iran has mastered the Nuclear Field cycle. The question is what do you do about it. I think secretary kerry and the president have tried to come up with a deal that refences this capacity. And that in my view would be in israels interest. Rose we conclude this evening with learning to drive a new film directed by Isabel Coixet and starring sir ben kingsley and patricia clarkson. When i was first attached to this project, i was ten years younger or nine years younger and nine years later i arrived to play this part and i thought oh, yes, now im ready now. Im here. I know what this is. I have no more doubt. I have, i know exactly how this woman, what her life involves, what her life entails. And i understood it in a deep organic way. Rose matt dowd, roger cohen and a new movie called learning to drive. All rose funding for charlie rose has been provided by rose additional funding provided by and by bloomberg, a provider of multimedia news and Information Services worldwide. Captioning sponsored by Rose Communications from our studios in new york city, this is charlie rose. Rose we begin this evening with a look at the 2016 president ial election, Donald Trumps campaign for the republican nomination continues to surge. He earned 24 in a recent poll followed by jeb bush and ben carson. The Presumptive Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton remains under scrutiny for her email while secretary state. He spent time talking with voters at the iowa state fair where they all were. He is an analyst for abc news and he joins me now from one of our favorite cities, austin, texas. Welcome, sir. Thanks charlie, great to be here. Rose so how was the iowa state fair. Well you know ive been there multiple times both years ago in the capacity to help a candidate and now recently observing the candidate. It was quite an unbelievable situation, both with hillary there and with donald trump there who just added a complete, you know, circus atmosphere to it. But i was actually fascinated by what a bunch of his supporters had to say in the course of it. Much different than i think many of us suspected or analyzed before. Rose what did they say . Well theres less anger to them and much less anger to them. Its not ideology, its not driven by issues. The only issue thats consistent is immigration. Thats the most consistent issue across it. But its basically a level of frustration and desire for somebody they think speaks their mind, somebody that they think is strong. In his sort of bombastity and bravado is an asset to these folks. They want to think of Something Big in the United States, big person, big power, big strength. For now they think donald trump best represents that. Rose can that think or what would happen to it to slow it down. Well, what none of the other candidates i do will impede him at this point in time. The only thing that can prevent donald trump in my view from getting the republican nomination is his mouth, his own mouth. Whether he says something over time that basically finally adds up to too much for the voters or he doesnt add enough meat to the bones. The supporters love him, adore him, want him but they worry about what he might say and they want him at some point in time, not necessarily right now charlie but at some point in time they want him to add meat to the bones. I think the other thing that will compound those things is time. Were not having the caucuses this week or next month. Were having them 170 days from now. So thats a lot of time to keep this huge bright fire work burning that donald trump is and a lot of that has the potential to dissipate over time. But the problem i think for the gop field right now is nobody is even in his atmosphere of ability to connect with people and the bright we he shines in every event he does. Rose and who is the most likely though theyre not there. Is it some other nonpolitician like ben carson or is it jeb bush, because jeb bush, if he ever gets his campaign rolling has the capacity because of the support he has from a broad base of the party and the Economic Resources he has. Its not jeb its absolutely not jeb bush. I think jeb bush is on the verge, unless he does very well in the debate next month thats going to be held at the Reagan Library in september. It doesnt how much money he has its going to be difficult to win the lookion. The voters the last person they will pick of the 17 is jeb bush when you talk to them. It is the potential being an outsider somebody like ben carson or Carly Fiorini or somebody like john kasik but in some views hes the governor of ohio. In some view hes view as a little bit of an outsider. I think if john casick meets it up and meets the voters in a strong more direct way he has the potential for it. Right now these voters will not vote for jeb bush and they want an outsider. Whether its Carson Fiorina or say casey but its not jeb. Rose suppose it is john casey and suppose his running mate is marco rubio. There you have ohio and florida. Does that mean that the chance republicans against the presumptive nominee Hillary Clinton is greatly increased . Then lets assume also adding to that that donald trump doesnt run as a third party and he behaves himself in the course of the general election. I think if somebody like john kasick and marco rubio was the president ial nominee they would be a huge advantage against Hillary Clinton in the general election. You point out the states, florida and ohio. The demographics, a latino that would be on the ticket. Then you go look at the circumstances of the country right now and where Hillary Clinton stands. People dont trust her, they dont like her and they disapprove of the current president right now. In that circumstance with the right nominee, then i think the republicans are the odds on to win the whitehouse in the course of this. But they have to nominate the right nominee in the course of this. Rose could donald trump if he gets the nomination beat Hillary Clinton . I think its really difficult. I mean its always a possibility. I dont ever like under these circumstances never like to say never. Its a possibility but hes probably interestingly enough the least electable in the general election. Rose is immigration a bigger issue than you imagined in the Republican Party because of the way its been used by donald trump. I think its not surprising to me that immigration is a big issue but i think it really stands for something more than the issue. When you talk to the folks they wanted something done about the borders but it really stands for something about our country and in their way they think the country has been lost in some ways over the last ten years, 20 years really. This is a way of recapturing our country. Immigration is really a telling issue for a bigger concern in the sense of where they think the country is and losing the country they thought they always wanted. And thats what immigration really stands for to them. Rose what do you think of Bernie Sanders. Hes the opposite side of the trump coin for the democratic party. Heres a guy thats viewed as an outsider taking on a very populous role, very dominant candidate Hillary Clinton in the course, i think Bernie Sanders could easily win iowa, could easily win New Hampshire and complicate the process along the way. Hillary clinton has odds to win the name nation but Bernie Sanders shows just like donald trump shows on the republican side that a candidate touches a way to convey a populous message connects really well in this country right now. Rose if Hillary Clinton lost iowa then lost New Hampshire, would that bring in joe biden. I think joe biden, hes going to have to make a decision because the way you look at delegate slates charlie, he has to come in by the middle of october. He has to decide hes in this race in order to set up the process of this. I think if joe biden thinks that Hillary Clinton is probably going to lose iowa and New Hampshire, he then figures out the play, i can make a play and win south carolina. Because Bernie Sanders is very difficult in south carolina. Thats what i think the calculation if joe biden wants to run is the calculation that Bernie Sanders is aiblght ao very well in the first states and come in and win the states then it would become a contest with joe biden as the more dominant the more establish on the other hand candidate in the course of those other primaries and bigger states along the way. Rose whats likely to be the defining issue or theme of this campaign in 2016 . I actually think donald trump is closest to the idea, not the issues but the closest to i think theres a sense we have lost americas greatness in many voters minds weve lost our sense of greatness both economically and domestically in the way we convey ourselves internationally and how we play with others internationally. I think that combination with a lot of sub things but that combination is can we remake or remodel the American Dream in a way that people can believe again. I think that is the over arching dommic. Theres a lot of struggles and issues going on and all these sorts of thing, the economy and all that. I think thats really the big value or the big vision that people want presented and donald trump is doing it in a sort of awkward bulldogy sort of way but hes probably come closest to where the country is on how do we remake the American Dream. Rose his theme is make America Great i guess. Well as i said the other day to somebody, donald trump is the floyd may weather of politics. He has the brand he has the hats, he has the entertainment value. He has all of those sorts of things. I think donald trump the biggest thing is can he be disciplined enough and can he put more substance on the bone in the course of this time. And will the republican establishment over time permit him to win the states obviously that he possibly could win. There is no question in my mind that there is now a possibility that donald trump could be the gop nominee. Rose matt dowd thank you. Great to see you a pressure. Great to see you charlie, always a pleasure. Rose matt dowd analyst from austin, texas. Well be right back. Roger cohen is here. Stay with us. Rose my friend roger cohen is here, hes a columnist for the new york times. He focuses on International Affairs and diplomacy. His most recent column is iran and american jews. The Jewish Community in the United States and the divisions it has caused. I am pleased to have him back at this table. Welcome. Thank you charlie. Rose remind me one more time the title of the book about your dad and your own history. Its called the ghost from human streets ghosts of memory in the jewish family. Rose its incredible. Thank you charlie. Rose if you havent had a chance to read it and understand from where roger comes. The give me the sense of this debate which is ongoing with lots of pressure and lots of people trying to impact the debate. People from beyond the United States. Clearly we know that Prime Minister netanyahu feels strongly about this and i take him at his word he believes this is not good as a threat to israel. Youre seeing all kinds of pressure being used almost more than debate. Yes. Well this is the most divisive issue in the american Jewish Community for a long time. And you have even within families fiery disagreements as to whether this deal is overall good for israel, good for the United States, good for the middle east or its not. On the one hand, you have apac heavily against the deal. On the other you have the up start j street with a much smaller budget and liberal organization. On balance this deal is good. On that context and my column is about that, that Prime Minister netanyahu weighed in yet again with the Jewish Community here and in essence said this deal will give iran hundreds of bombs within years wild high purposably thats simply not true. Have the yellow cake and eat it which is in my view, the line of reality. This deal is not perfect in diplomacy. You never get perfection. Iran has marched the nuclear fuel cycle. The question is what do you do about it. I think secretary kerry and the president have tried to come up with a deal that refences this capacity. And that in my view would be in israels interest. Rose why dont you think the Prime Minister sees it that way and the significant part of the Israeli Community as well as the american Jewish Community. Look, the Islamic Republic charlie has said vial up conscionable things about israel over many years. It said rose and im not making a clinical point but i mean hasnt the been important for israel and people who love israel to take seriously people who say they want to destroy it. It is important to take seriously that kind of unconscionable language. On the other hand, iran, the Islamic Republic has i would argue survived since the iranian revolution since 1979 to be a fairly prudent power. And the fact is that in recent years, iran has been able to install more and more centrifuges, get more and more enriched iranian yew uraniu, cuts way back the number of send centrifuges, installs things that exist. People say iran will cheat. Well it may cheat, who knows. But the fact is over the past few years it did not cheat and in this agreement, charlie, there is nothing that says the United States or its allies cannot take any action they deem appropriate including military action if iran reneges and the United States remains on divisive issues like iranian support, to continue to pressure iran to stop that kind of behavior. Rose they said they would do that. Absolutely. One fundamental question rose to try to tie the two together would be are you better off with some kind of framework that condemns United States and iran to a relationship, a difficult hostile relationship, a relationship for the next 15 years. Are you better placed to begin to be able to talk about those issues with that or without that. And if youre without that, look this deal wasnt made by the United States. It was made by the United States, china, russia, germany, france and britain. Those are not small or unserious powers. Rose and without their support of the sanctions, would they have been effective if they were. No. And if this deal is rejected which i think is unlikely in the end and will be approved in a moment tuesday accord, the sanctions regime would fall apart because china and russia would conclude the United States is unserious about an agreement that has been two years in the making. Rose when you look at the president s argument for what it is that there was no other way and that the people who criticizes has no other argument other than military force. Is the president right about that . Is there no other way that you could have brought about an iranian rejection of nuclear power, weaponnized nuclear power. I dont think complete dismantlement which is initially what Prime Minister netanyahu pushed for. I dont think complete dismantlement was ever on the table. Iran is proud of the Nuclear Technology its developed. It says its not for use for a bomb, it says as a signatory of the iaea, of course it has a right to develop this technology. And i think if you argued for complete dismantlement in effect, youre arguing for war. Look iranians remember that for a long time, their oil was not controlled by themselves, it was controlled by the United States and britain. And when the Prime Minister came along in the 1950s and said hey, we actually think this oil should be ours, we instituted a coup. The Nuclear Technology is a little like oil 60 years ago. Its something that iran feels that it has a right to develop. And of course it looks around, it sees a nuclear a israel and pakistan, sees a nuclear on russia, nuclear on india. Its not a neighborhood where everybody is without Nuclear Weapons, much to the contrary. So i think the best way, yes i mean iran is not any of those countries and we need to stop iran developing a nuclear weapon. There is no question about that. And if necessary, we need to use military force to stop them. Rose do you believe the president would new Nuclear Force if in fact he thought they were by one means or the utmost likely covert come very close to a nuclear weapon. I believe not only this president , president obama but any subsequent president that i can imagine. If the Islamic Republic is still in place and if it is still using the kind of language that it has used about israel and is still supporting hezboll