Transcripts For KQED Nightly Business Report 20240714 : vima

KQED Nightly Business Report July 14, 2024

Wednesday. It started with a trio of Central Banksnt cuttingest rates, and that led to a sharp drop in ghnd yields, ghting the concern over trade tensions between the u. S. And china. At, in turn, led to a flight to safety. Investors piled into things like government bonds and gold. In fact, gold traded above 1,500 dollars an ounce for the first time in six years. Stocks sold off. The dow down nearlynt 600 p early on. Oil also sold off, falling more than 4 . T then the buyerstepped in and stocks reversed course. The dow finished down only 22 points to 26,007. The nasdaq rode 29 and the s p climbed 2. The indexes 2 reversal was its biggest comeback of 2019. Bob pisani has more. Reporter it was another wild day on wall street, the dow plunging almost 600 pointsly ear on before rebounding to end f essentiallt on the day. It was one of the great comebacks of the year. Mounting trade tensi heightened fears of a possible global recession, that has put more pressure on Central Banks including our own Federal Reserve to keep cutting Interest Rates to get ahead of a sharper downturn. There were just several aggressive rate cuts announced overnight by Central Banks, in thailand, new zealand and in hyindia. Thatsuy yields are plunging across the globe. The yield on the u. S. Tenyear treasury note falling to a neary threeyear low. As luter rates pressure on bank profits. Stocks bounced off the days lows when the yields on the u. Se te came off its lows in the middle of the day. The two traded in tandem allay long. Despite the strong rebound in Consumer Staples and tech stock goes, the more trade sensitive industrials d budge much. They under performed today. Since the start of august when ditional tariffs were announced theyre lagged the broader market. No sur those are the global sectors most exposed to tradover all. For nightlBusiness Report, im bob pisani at the new york stock exchange. As bob mentioned, those cuts by those Central Banks alo with falling rates puts our Federal Reserve back in the spotlight. Steve liesman takes a look at whether the fed is under even more pressure now to cut rates. Reporter normally the Central Banks in thailand, new zealand andndia would not be seen as big global movers and shakers, not like the fed, the ecb and bank of japan. Twhaent the case today when the tree Central Banks sentl a sig heard around the world as they cut Interest Rates, unexpectedly in the case of thailand and more expect in india and new zealand. At sent global bond yields downward, eventually taking stocks with them most of the day. The message to markets, the possibility we are in a race tob thetom on Interest Rates around the world. In fact, President Trump he tweeted out today, our problem is the Federal Reserve too proud to admit their mistake of acting too fast and tightening too much and i was right. They must cut rates bigger and faster. It would be easier if the fed understood, which they dont, that we are competing against other countries, all of whom want to do well at our expense. Whatever the motivation, Central Banks from around the world from russia to australiao brazil have been cutting rates and doing so since april. Re in the united stat markets expect further rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. Futures markets trade with a 100 probability of a september rate cut, another quarter point expected in october, and even a third one expected in december. The fed c knows it maintain rates that are so far from other countries. Th i problem may be that i cuts, other banks will simply cut more. For nightly Business Report, imve s liesman. Now, the upside to lower rates, Mortgage Applications. Ey surged last week. But as diana olick explains, not everyone is reactingewo the low rates. Thank you for calling. Homeowners didnt waste any time last week calling lenders the refinance, Mortgage Applications the refi jumped 12 for the week an u a whopping 116 compared to the same week a year ago. This as the average rate on the 30year fixed dropped precipitously to the lowest level since november 2016, all e thanks to escalating trade war with china. The rate was nearly a full percenta point higher one year ago. That means more thanon mil borrowers today could benefit from a refi by lowering their rates at least a quart of a percentage point. That translates into a savinbo of 150 a month on a 300,000 loan. A lot of people will tak the lower mortgage payments and say, oh, you know, i wanted to fix up or itchen or the bathroom the garage or do a little bit of landscaping. So, yeah, it helps to juice up home improvement, renovation, but also all kind of spending. Thank you so much. Home buyers however were not im aessed. Mortgalications to purchase a home fell 2 for the week. Thats the fourth straight week of decline, despite lower Interest Rates. Purchase applications were nearly 7 higher than a ago. R Mortgage Rates continue to fall this week, so you can expect to see me borrowers rushing to refi. S as for buyers, it is just more implicated. Low rates certainly help to afford a home, but the reason rates are low,ea that is about the strength of the economy, makes buyers nervous and less likely to want to make such a huge investment. For nightly Business Report, im diana olick in washington. Over the past week or so the market has generally been lower since President Trump said the u. S. Would impose new tariffs on beginning ds september 1st. Our eamon javers asked the president today if he was surprised by the markets reaction t Market Reaction is to be expeaved. I might expected even more. At some point, as was said, we have to take on china. China is losing so many, thousands and thousands of companies are leaving china now because of the tariffs. Were ingo a ver position as to whether or not a deal will be made. China tell you this, would like to make a deal very badly. Tralow, many of the c banks are reacting to concerns about slower Global Growth because of those trade tensions between the u. S. Anda. Ch it was exacerbated monday when chinas yuan, its currency, hit its lowestga levelinst the dollar in a decade. Sinc then china worked to stabilizehe currency. As eunice yoon tells us, today was no different. Ji reporter b is sending the signal if there is a currency war it wont be because china. The authorities here today were intervening and managing the maets in order to hold up the value of the currency. First thing this morng in the mainland chinese markets, the peoples bank of china sethat it calls the midpoint at 6. 996 to the u. S. Dollar, just stronger than 7. The way theorystem here is that the central bank fixes the value at the start of trade every day to influence trading. Currency traders were also talking about reports that chinese sete banks w stepping into the market, both here in china and offshore, to support it. This is another standard way that the government tries to manage the currencys value. The move follows a statement by the central bank viceovernor that china believes it is response to keep the yuan stable. Theres been a lot of debate about what motivated the chinese to allow the yuan to weaken past 7 earlier this week, but it is becoming clear day by day that the Chinese Government wants to make sure that the currency stays under control. For nightly Business Report reports, im eunice use in beijing. And the important relationship here is, of course, with the u. S. Dollar. Moel prec the relative strengths of the dollar, and thats incredibly important for u. S. Companies and markets. Think caterpillar, exxonmobil, cocacola or 3m. They are all u. S. Compani that lots of business overseas. If youre invested in multinationals, Pay Attention to the u. S. Dollar. The stronger the dollar gets, the more of a countrys currency it takes to buy products that are sold in dollars. With prices up, it figures fewer American Products are likely to be sold in china and elsewhere and some u. S. Products, even oil, are facing tariffs. That drives up the price even more. So one question investors have to ask, willigr prices allow it mpany to offset the fact is selling fewer goods . If not, profits are reduced. The inverse is also true. For example, chinas exports become cheaper to buy here, which reduces the impact of any tariff u. S. Might place on those goods. So now the question is how much of an impact is a strong dollar having on those multinationals. Seema mody takes a look. Reporter President Trump may want a weaker dollar, but with a record n of Central Banks cutting rates around the world in 2019, thats going to be a harder objective to achieve. Wall streets strategists are now betting that a stronger dollar will likely become a bigger pain for companies that make a large portion of their sales overseas, like consumers staple sector which on average makes about 45 of their revenue outside of the u. S. Analystsaution if the dollar continues to strength, it could make American Products less attractive to customers overseas, especially in emerging markets where the consumer tends to be more price sensitive. Multinationals could bring down the price of their products, but that could then impact profitability. In the first quarter, north American Companies lost more than 23 billion due to the impact of currencies. The most in morehan three years. Analysts say internationally exposed names like kimberlyclark, proctor gambneralu gamble, general mills. Investors say much has to do with the companiesea ang dividend yields. Dividendpaying names tend to be a little less volatile than the maet, and they do offer stability in this type of situation. St, you know, look for Company Specific stories. Reporter with Central Banks coming more accommodative, invesco says it is making highei ndyielding multinationals specifically in the Consumer Staples space more attractive, but it can change if a stronger dollar continues to eat into profits. For nightly Business Report, seema mody. So joining us nowo put a of this into perspective is andreasarcia amaya, the founder and ceo of his own well it management firm, zoe financial. Nice to have you back. Thanks foraving me. We posed the question at the beginning and the premise that when rates are falling it is usually positive for stocks. But you haveates falling all over the globe and actually negative rates in many countries around the world. So is it different this time . So when rates are falling and the globalconomy is doing fine or Global Growth is agreerating, i would thats usually a positive thing. When rates are falling like the way they have the last couple of days as a result of people basically looking at the geopolitical situation and seeing the tensions es thats a different story, right. That is essentially people looking for a safe hd,en therefore, buying Treasury Bonds as a result of thedsreasury yi falling. For that, usually it is not a positive for equities. Right. So what is annvestor to do at this point if it looks indeed as if we going to continue to see these lower rates, maybe negative rates in more parts of the globe . Is the safe hav status of the u. S. Still the place to be . E learned ink what the last couple of days is that all of our crystal balls are broken, right. We didnt know what was going to happen two weeks ago, now we clearly know i think everyone knows we didnt know this was going to happen, especially with the cal it the trade wars urrency wars. This reminds us equity markets tend to be more volatile. If anything, this y been more calm. The volatility is more normal than we have seen inrior weeks. Thats one. Two is that you should have a personal Financial Plan ye shouldulling up to check to see if anything has changed over the last two weeks. If nothing has changed with that personal Financial Plan, then your longterm investment ontoiv objectives should not change th the geopolitical nsions. Does that include riding out increased volatility . Do you need to adjust that you cial plan if, indeed, think we will have more volatility ahead . Ou so volatility whenre buying equity, volatility if you are a tolongterm inv is actually to your benefit because youre not trying to retire tomorrow. Ifou are thinking five, ten years out, shortterm volatility allows you t have higher expected returns on the Equity Stocks versus on t bond side. So what do you do now . Do you if you have an Overall Investment plan and we justh lighted the multinationals, many of which have fairly decen. Divide do you take the opportunity on a day like this when we at one pot saw the dow down 600 points and add to a posion . Is tha the best safe haven at this point . So this is something people rarely say, but days like today do nothing, right. If when people make decisions based onas emotion, on what they see on the headlines, usually in the long term that ends up not being the right choice. So if you have if you dont have a personal Financial Plan i would say thats the actionable item, is get a personal Financial Plan tour e that these kind of shortterm volatility doesnt dissuade y from your longterm objectives. So if you want to be in equities lger term, wha areas are you seeing value in now and areas that perhaps might give you a little bit of safety or at least reduce volatility . So the best way to think about it is if you h a strategy in which you say you wanted 70 equities and 30 bonds and the market falls 5 , d 6 , that sho trigger a rebalancing to buy equities wiout emotional decision attached to it. Use the benchmarks you set for yourself andse them wisely when the market gives you the opportunity to get back to where yo should have been in t first place. A quick comment on the gold market. We mentioned the fact it hs highs we have not seen in several years. Would you hedge your equity position in gold or not . I would not. Gold is one of those Asset Classes that i personally do not understand what it does and wn it does it. If i cant explain it, it is very hard to explain to the client why we owned it in the first place. It seems to be right now good hedge against essentially more volatility in the equity market. Sometimes it doesso that. Times it doesnt. So i personally dont see it as a great hedge to vn atility the short term or the long term. All right. On that note, thanks for the advice, good to see you again. Thank you for havg me. Andreas garcia amaya with zoe coming up next, disney was one of the biggest dra on the day following earnings miss last night. Here is what the ceo says the sumpany is doing teed in the future. And theres a look at the shares fdisney, the stock down about 5 following the companys earnings which we toldou about last night. That miss was attributed in part to disney building itstrming business. Julia boorstin sat down exclusively with disney ceo bob iger to talk about the companya gy. Reporter disney ceo bob ierr saying the citys lowest expected results launch of the streaming business. With cord cutting continuing to weigh on the Media Networks business as well as the paid immediate raw providers such a at t, i asked iger about how concerned he is about projections that cord cutting will accelerate. Are we concerned about cord cutting . Yes. It has been an important business for us. But it is the reason we areng pivo strategically, to give us an opportunity to not only contend with the transformation going on in the Traditional Space but to thrive and basically completely different iger says the company is investing to succeed in the streaming wars, announcing disney will sell a bundle of disney plus and hulu with ads for 5. 99, a discount. Our goal all along was to achieve scale, particularly with disney plus, as soon as possible. To basically sign up as many subscribers as possible and get them into the service, giving them a chance to enjoy the great tual property and the product that will be part of that service. We thought that this bundle would be a great step in the direction of achieving that it is not just about the subscription revenue. Disney will earn from the services. Aer telling me that getting broader audience for hulu will help grow its ad revenue, which heays is valuable revenue stream. For nightly Business Report, im Julia Boorstin in los angeles. The New York Times sees a rise in digital subscriptions and thats where we begin tonights market focus. The Company Reported mixed results,areatingngs expectations but missing on revenue. The mes says it is making strides in its digital subscriptions but expects what it says is a challenging second half of the year with its Digital Advertising unit. Sharese fell m than 12 to 3125. Cvs topped estimates thanks to an increase in samestore sales, rescription drug sales and its recent acquisition of the insurer aetna. The company all raised its fullyear outlook. The stock rose more than 7 to 5812. Cvs rival walgreens will shut down about00 stores or 3 of its u

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