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Global trade in food and agricultural products grew by 3.5% last year, according to the WTO, leading to descriptions that the sector was robust and resilient in the face of the worst pandemic in a century. However, a USDA working paper says the impact of the coronavirus was obscured by such factors as the de-escalation of the Sino-U.S. trade war.
“Holding other factors constant, our estimates suggest that COVID-19 reduced overall agricultural trade by the approximate range of 5% to 10%, an effect two to three times smaller than our estimated effect for nonagricultural trade,” said the working paper from the USDA’s office of the chief economist.