Reporters a little bit earlier. Why do it today . The idea that you why not . Rip the bandaid off here or what . Why not . I think matt has planned this all along. Didnt matter what we transpired. Youre calling his bluff . Yeah. Mccarthy or one of his allies can delay by asking the house to kill gaetzs resolution. But he has little chance of winning that vote without at least some support from democrats. And they have been clear this is the republicans mess to figure out. They wont save him. Today, gaetzs republican colleagues acknowledge Whether Mccarthy can survive or what happens if he doesnt is up in the air. Most members in the room are solidly supporting Speaker Mccarthy. There was an admission by matt gaetz, who is my friend, that there is no plan. There is no one that has stepped forward to run. There is no one that is coming out saying ill be speaker and rallying support within the conference. So there you have it. Joining us now, nbcs ali vitali as she has been living on capitol hill. Brendan buck former aide to House Speakers paul ryan and jim boehner and msnbc political analyst, john that lemire, host of Way Too Early and former republican congressman Carlos Curbelo of florida, an msnbc political analyst. So, ali, where are we and What Happens Next . Those are all questions that we dont yet know the answer to. At least What Happens Next, because where we are right now is trying to count the votes as unofficially as we can because were talking to a lot of these republicans. We can count up to five of them who say theyre going to vote against mccarthy, and youre right to point out that this is going to happen in two phases. In terms of what happens at some point this hour, were going to see a mccarthy ally, likely put up a motion to get rid of this motion, say, hey, lets not vote on Dispelling Mccarthy from his job. Thats likely to fail based on all of my and our teams reporting because mccarthy doesnt have the votes. Democrats are going to all stand together and at least five republicans are going to stand with them, which then means that well proceed on to the actual motion to vacate, the actual vote that would decide whether or not mccarthy gets to stay in his job as speaker. Again, right now, in my unofficial whip count, he does not have the votes to keep his job. It is something he was told directly by reporters outside of the meeting and that footage youre showing. Mccarthy was told and he literally said if five republicans stand with all democrats to oust me, then i lose my job. Those are the stakes right now. Everyone is aware from mccarthy to gaetz to everyone in between, and now it is just a question of if anything changes, once theyre actually on the floor. Mccarthy says this is his opportunity to call gaetz and others bluff, okay. But it doesnt seem like theyre backing down. At least not yet. Yeah, so brendan, what kinds of conversations do you imagine are going on Behind Closed Doors . Among allies and mccarthy, as he tries to save his gavel . Yeah, you know, there was a really positive Conference Meeting rally behind Kevin Mccarthy among republicans this morning. That really doesnt matter. This all comes down to democrats right now. It is in their hands of Whether Mccarthy is removed and what would first timer for Something Like this to happen. Now, democrats have been very clear they dont like Kevin Mccarthy, they think he has left the house in a very poor way. Theyre upset with him about what happened on january 6th. Theyre upset about the Impeachment Inquiry. They have a long list of grievances with him and they want to make him pay for that. And at some point, though, i imagine there is going to be some level of Shuttle Diplomacy going on from some mccarthy allies to some of the more moderate democrats, swing seat democrats, who may understand that this is actually bad for the institution this is a bad precedent to set. And that whatever comes after Kevin Mccarthy, a matt gaetz chosen speaker is probably no better for them than Kevin Mccarthy. Now whether thats going to work or not, i dont know. But if this vote is happening, i cant believe mccarthy is going to roll the dice completely without putting in some effort from his allies. He cant make any negotiations. I dont think he can cut a deal. But at least try to persuade some moderate democrats that there is a better life for them with mccarthy than the alternative. Well have to see if thats persuasive or not. Jonathan, democrats have been huddling as they weigh what to do and heres what minority leader Hakeem Jeffries told reporters a little while ago as theyre all watching this situation unfold. We encourage our republican colleagues who claim to be more traditional to break from the extremists, end the chaos, end the dysfunction, end the extremism. We are ready, willing and able to Work Together with our republican colleagues, but it is on them to join us to move the congress and the country forward. And, jonathan, shortly after that, Pernilla Jayapal was more colorful saying, these are her words, that it is not up to democrats to stop republicans from wallowing in their own pig sty, but as brendan points out, how do they even know that whoever ends up as speaker and nobody has any idea who that might be would be any better for them . Talk about what youre hearing from the white house, what youre seeing on the democratic side, john. Yeah, democrats dont know that. And democrats as brendan said have a long list of reasons why they dont want to bail out Kevin Mccarthy. They feel like, of course, january 6th, they also thought mccarthys efforts to sabotage the january 6th committee. The Impeachment Inquiry into president biden, they blame Kevin Mccarthy for that. A number of them said to me, this is overlooked, when mccarthy went down to maralago, a couple of weeks after january 6th, that was perceived as the first step for donald trump to come back as a major figure in the Republican Party. That was a brief moment where trump could have been exiled. Mccarthy went there, the first sign toward rehabilitation for trump. Trump the leading gop president ial nominee and democrats feel the threat he poses is lethal, potentially, to the republic itself. Theyre not anxious to help mccarthy. They dont know what would be next. The white house is staying out of this. Theyre watching carefully as you might imagine. I got off the phone with a very senior aide there, but they dont want to be perceived as putting their thumb on the scale in terms of what mccarthy, his future may be. There is a sense that if mccarthy were to perhaps lose his speakership, there could be a but the republicans cant coalesce on a replacement that maybe he would be able to win a back later on. But, remember, of course, he had 15 rounds the first time, but that would be a long shot for the speaker. And there is just a lot of uncertainty right now as one democrat put to me, theyre going to oust the speaker because he voted to keep the government open, that shows you what Chaos Republicans are in right now. Carlos, you served with a lot of the democrats. You know them well. You know the system well. How you to see this unfolding . What are you watching for . I think the group to watch is the coalition of Centrist Republicans and democrats. Do they try to stand out in this process at any point . We know it is very hard, for example, for Kevin Mccarthy to go and try to cut a deal with Hakeem Jeffries. But in moments like this, the Rank And File members, the centrist members, the bridge builders, tend to get together, they tend to try to find ways out of these kinds of crises during the government shutdown, some of them were talk about potentially finally discharge petition and some took some initial steps to doing that. So the Problem Solvers Caucus. I know they have been meeting all morning. Do they come up with something . Do some democrats step in and say, you know what, were going to neutralize this radical element within the House Republican conference and be the members that work with the republican majority when this group acts up going forward. Thats something to look out for now. Thats something that Kevin Mccarthy wouldnt be directly involved in, trying to negotiate. But certainly members like david joyce, andrew garbarino, centrist members in the house, theyre having conversations and trying to find a way to avert this chaos that would be embarrassing to the House Republican conference and probably will be very painful for the country. Is there a way for democrats to play into this, ali, to avert this crisis . Because everything ive been hearing as ive been watching our coverage, reading everybodys blogs and everything, the democrats want to stick together on this, dont they . And why wouldnt they . I talked to some of the members that brendan and Congressman Curbelo allude to. The idea that maybe there are members in swingier districts, front line democrats who have tough reelection battles in the coming year. Maybe they could see some political upside to coming to mccarthys aid In The Name Of the institution. But here is how leadership without whipping those people dealt with them, which is to say, when Kevin Mccarthy went on the sunday shows this weekend, he kind of bit the hand that fed him on averting a government shutdown. He politicized what democrats did and keeping the government open, and thats a clip they played in the Democratic Caucus meeting this morning. That got a reaction from lawmakers and it cemented the idea there is no political upside to saving mccarthy because hes not going to be the one to spare you if it comes down to hard politics. And then it also made it that democrats are able to stand together. What someone did say to me, one democratic member allowed that if were going into multiple ballot rounds on a motion to vacate or who the next speaker could be, once things go further down the road, maybe people can make different calculations. But i do think that it is striking that in all of my reporting, Kevin Mccarthy is not calling around to democrats. The pressure is on republicans to flip. I dont see why they would. Many of the people who said theyre going to vote against mccarthy are people who dont need the backing of mccarthy when they go back home to their own districts and they have been steadfast in saying that theyre going to vote against him. So, mccarthy is not focusing on the other side of the aisle. Hes focusing within and i dont know how that changes the math for him at all. Id like all of you to stick with me. I want to bring in congressman Byron Donalds now who has been mentioned as a potential Kevin Mccarthy replacement. Good of you to come on the program, congressman. Over the weekend you said that Kevin Mccarthy is in trouble. Will you vote to remove him as speaker and why or why not . First of all, good to be with you. Im not going to vote to remove him. I believe this process is premature, too soon. We have a ton of work that needs to be done on capitol hill. We have about 43, 42 days to finish the Appropriations Process. And to take up floor time to do this is the wrong way to go. Secondly, there is not a long discussion among members about this procedure. I know the rule, one member can trigger it, i do agree with that rule as it exists, but it is really how it is supposed to work, you have a discussion to see if you can build support for that, that has not occurred. I think this is the wrong time. Im voting not to vacate. What conversations are you having with other republicans . Do you believe among the core group that support matt gaetz there is any wiggle room there . How do you see this playing out, congressman . In terms of talking with other members, this is really going to be every member for themselves. I dont think you have a Coalition Forming here. I think members are going to have to make a decision of what they think is in the best interest of their districts, whether they think it is going to be in the best interest of the country and go from there. I had a couple of informal kosks conversations, but really to see where people are. Let me ask you about what is in the best interest of the country. Youve expressed it and we heard it from any number of other republicans who will vote as you do that this is not the time. There is a lot on the plate of congress. They need to get thir things dor the American People. Does it frustrate you, anger you . How do you feel about the idea of a small number of people representing their constituents as they feel they are or not essentially holding the rest of the congress who may feel differently hostage . Well, look, it doesnt frustrate me. This is democracy. This is the very essence of what you have people who have disagreements, you have to either air the disagreements or find a way to compromise on them. It doesnt bother me. Our border is a mess. It is wide open. It is hurting americans in every city in our country, every state in our country, and needs to be fixed. Our debt is too high. Our deficits are massive. We have to cut spending so that we can actually continue to get the physical health of our nation back on track. Those are the primary two things that need to occur and we have the next 43 days to figure that out. My only concern is by taking up time with this process, youre taking away from that. And as you know, you lived it firsthand, 43 days may sound like a lot, but it is not when you talk about the kinds of issues you want to address and there are obviously others as well. So, lets say that Speaker Mccarthy doesnt survive. Your name has been floated as a potential replacement. Would you be interested in being speaker . Honestly, not going to get into that right now. Im going to worry about the procedure on the floor. If anything ive seen the last 30, 45 days around here is stuff is fluid moment to moment. My only message from my colleagues is that we need to stand together here in the republican house. We need to make sure were working hard to get the agenda passed and starting to work with the senate in order to address the issues that the American People are facing. I dont do the palace intrigue stuff. Well see what happens down the road. You said you had some informal conversations. Have you spoken to matt gaetz directly. No, we have not talked about this no. Would you like to have a conversation with him . At some point, but were going to see this be dispensed with one way or another on the house floor. I think right now it is about talking to members, seeing where members are, giving members an opportunity to process this. You got to understand, members went home saturday, some members went home sunday, like myself, and then by the time you get home, you start looking at your phone and youre saying, there is going to be a motion, we get back yesterday and the motion is filed. Members are really trying to think through this in real time. While they have been focused on the nations fiscal issues and our border which is a complete mess and a crisis. Have you been getting an earful from your constituents . They have been calling. Some people in my district want to go through with the motion to vacate. I understand their position. And, look, the position for a lost americans is washington has lied to them for too many years, washington has not been serious about the issues facing this country for too many years, but every two years, every four years, politicians go home, campaign about theyre going to fix all this stuff and come up here, waste time, not serious, not focused. You have a lot of americans who are saying enough is enough. Just be done with the place. I think the prudent position is to use every tool available to address the needs of the American People and i want to exhaust that before we even get into any other conversations. Should there be a reexamination, do you think, of house rules so that one person or a small group of people can cause essentially the entire congress to shut down while we figure out what is going to happen next . Look, im not in congress, but i hear the same things that you hear when im out across the country in different states and people are saying, why is Congress Talking about things that dontthey getting things done . Should a rules change be looked at . I dont agree with that. I would say it makes in line with the senate. The United States senate, one senator can hold up business because they are representing the interests of their state. If you have a member or a group of members who feel that strongly about the direction of the way the house is operating, they should be able to bring that to the floor. Members should debate that, and dispense with that business one way or the other. We have to get back to one institution and i believe as somebody involved very intimately in the Battle For Speaker Of The House back in january, the House Of Repres