Good evening from new york, im chris hayes, along with alex wagner. And we are both here, for msnbcs special coverage of yet another primary night in america. This one in the electorally crucial state of michigan. And as of right now at this moment, eight pm eastern, polls have closed in nearly all counties across that state, other than a few in michigans upper peninsula, which will close in an hour from now. So were going to start getting results coming in, basically any second throughout the next hour. And of course, if we have that, weve got have Steve Kornacki here at the big board, ready to break down the numbers, as we have them in realtime. Along with our team of excellent reporters in michigan, to also give us the latest from there. Both the republican and democratic primaries are going on today, and the contests are interesting for a number of reasons. Not for the usual reason, which is suspense about who will win. Neither race is actually expected to be all that competitive, to be honest. There is really little doubt that President Joe Biden and donald trump will be the respective winners. But tonight, we are looking for two different signals about the nature of their voting coalitions. On the trump side, one of the things that has now become clear after multiple contests, is that despite the fact of the xed president is essentially running as an incumbent, despite the fact that he is all but certain to clinch the republican nomination, there is still a significant portion of republican primary voters, maybe as much as 40 , who are motivated enough to go out and cast a vote for trumps opponent, nikki haley. As haley herself said just over the weekend in South Carolina, its not a majority, but its not a tiny group either. So what does that measurable opposition to trump mean for his Electoral Prospects . On the democratic side, we are seeing a different phenomenon play out. President bidens struggles in michigan are about policies, specifically his stalwart support of the continued israeli war in gaza, in response to hamass october 7th attack. That response from the Biden White House has created intense fractures within the Democratic Coalition, perhaps nowhere as much as in the state of michigan, which has among the highest populations of arab American Voters in the entire country. That fracturing of the party base has led to a campaign where democratic primary voters, dissatisfied and opposed to the white houses policy on israel and gaza, are organized to call on voters to vote uncommitted in the primary, rather than explicitly casting their vote for joe biden. It is meant as both a protest, and a warning if the white house should be for its organizers say, its too late. Now, no one expects uncommitted to win tonight. There is just a wide open question of what what its showing might mean about the strength of intensity of dissent within the party, surrounding the biden administrations continued support for this war. Lets start with Steve Kornacki, at the big board. Steve, weve got polls close to most of the state, what are you seeing, what are you looking for . And we are looking for a first result. As you mention, if it is only in four counties here dickinson, manen if you live there. First of all, you are lucky, because its beautiful up there. I was just saying. But second of all, you do have another hour to vote. Everywhere else in the u. P. , and in the Lower Peninsula, the polls are now close. And keep in mind, michigan is a heavy early voting, really mail voting, vote by mail state. About half 1 million early or mail ballots were cast in both the democratic and republican primaries, and under a new state law passed a couple of years ago, the counties could begin tabulating those absentee votes today. So one thing we are looking for, there are some mixed signals i think coming from the state here, about exactly how this is going to work. But certainly given that rule, and that law, it is possible that we can get big, big chunks of the vote reported out from some of these counties, like me, that would be the absentee vote. And they are also doing early votes for the first time far more taken advantage of the absentee mail voting, than the actual in person early voting. But, we are going to see if any of that comes in early. And of course some of those themes. On the republican side, look, haley has hit 43 in New Hampshire, and she had 40 in South Carolina. And the nature of her support, demographically, is very predictable right now, as is Donald Trumps in the republican primary. Haley is doing well with places with high concentration of voters with College Degrees, higher incomes, suburban areas. And, oh look at this, i will interrupt, because we got our first result. This is a major suburban higher income area. This is Oakland County. This is one of the biggest. And here is the initial batch of votes. Now this is about 9 of what we are expecting to come out of here, although that is a Turnout Estimate weve made from our own decision desk. That could change tonight, so we are seeing here about 15,000, a little bit less than 15,000 votes. And this is interesting. Donald trump, you see here, he is leading by about five and a half points over nikki haley. What i was just about to say is Oakland County is exactly one of those counties you would look for, if haley is going to be having a good night. Because Oakland County, detroit is right, here youve got the Eight Mile Road that separates it from its northern suburbs. And the two big norman are right here. Were you looking at one of, them oakland. And right to its east is county. Demographically, they are polar opposites. Macomb is the blue collar, Suburban County, sort of built by the uaw. And oakland is the more economically upscale suburb, a lot more College Degrees, a lot more economically affluent college graduates. Together, they are going to make up for about 20 of the it is maybe 25 , and you can see hailie, this vote, and we are not sure what its representative of, we want to see more comment. But if anything like this is happening in Oakland County, that is a pretty strong showing for nikki haley. Again, just going and staying pretty strong in the sense, not that thats up to contention, necessarily to win the state. But when you see that she got 43 in New Hampshire, that she got 40 in South Carolina, if she wants to be getting that number going north of, it this is one of the places that she needs to be competitive, and probably winning by the end of the night, if she wants to have that kind of a night. We could just show you in 2016, this is the last time there was competitive republican primary in michigan. Donald trump was running for the first time, he won that primary with 37 of the vote. You see, he did do well here, he didnt win Oakland County, a little bit off of this statewide total. But this is also one of the better counties for john kasich, who was kind of occupying that more moderate wing, appealing to a lot of those College Educated voters who have been against trump, who have been siding with nikki haley. So thats an interesting first report were getting out of oakland. And look at that, weve got more votes now coming in. Oakland county, the show is yours right now, keep the votes coming in. And you could see here, trump has actually built a bit of a bigger lead. So again, if it starts moving in trumps direction from that initial 40, 9 43, then haley is not in a position where she could be getting ella but you can see its early, weve already seen some movement with that number. So this is one we want to keep coming back to folks, because this is big, this is population density. Again, this is a very big barometer for how the night is going to go. Well, or poorly for nikki haley. The other place to be looking, and maybe some of them will light up in just a few minutes, in terms of a barometer for haleys strength, and trumps weakness, if there is any here tonight, will be in this area right around grand rapids. Thats where grand rapids is. That is also ottawa county, immediately to its west. And there are a couple of other counties, the five county region here, it is going to make up about 17 of the republican vote. And whats interesting is this region of the state, a lot of it is traditionally republican and conservative. But starting in 2016, this very strongly adverse to donald trump himself, even as he was winning big time in the statewide vote in 2016, he was doing terribly in this part of the state. Take a look at ottawa county, this is a big one. Michigan this year, trump only got 19 and a half percent. Here basically, half of the statewide total for grand rapids as. Third place for donald trump. Donald trump won 72 of michigans eight counties in 2016. But the five county zone around here that im talking about, he didnt win a single one of them, and he came in third in two of them. So this area here, if haley is going to be doing anything tonight, she needs not just to be winning it, she needs to be racking up big numbers in this part of the state. Because the other thing is, certainly we are giving the areas where haley could be strong tonight. We mentioned the blue collar suburb of detroit, famously thats the home of the reagan democrats way back when he won michigan in the 2016 general election, he flipped macomb to the republicans. So that should be a trump strength night. And basically, lets just draw a line here, north of saginaw. Youve got a lot of land area, including the u. P. This is only going to total about, all combined, about 15 of the republican vote tonight. But these are largely, with a couple of exceptions, these are largely rural counties, working class, filled with white voters who dont have College Degrees. And that has been trumps really strong core group. And in some of these counties, when trump first ran for president in 2016 against hillary clinton, they move 20, 30 points from their 2012 levels. A lot of these counties were blue, a lot of them voted for barack obama. They became red, deeply red, in the era of trump. They stayed there in 2020, so this is going to be a source of strength for him tonight, even if its not a huge share of the statewide vote. So Trump Country up here, potentially trump trouble country up here. And a tale of two counties, we want to be watching, in Oakland County, and then right next door in macomb county. But again, all we have right now a, so i should reset this two statewide. All we have right now is vote from oakland, a little bit more coming, and getting to about one fifth year. And this is starting, again, the movement now, we have seen a couple ticks of movement here. This kind of margin, for trump again, this should be a strong county for haley. And if you are using that New Hampshire and South Carolina performance, again, 43, 40 overall of the vote, this is starting to get on the low, and potentially for what we are hearing in oakland. But again, 18 , we will see what happens. Can we, lets go quickly just over to do we have democratic vote, we should have some democratic vote . We have in Oakland County, yes. And there you go, so now about a quarter of the vote in the democratic side here. We are expecting lower turnout in the democratic side than the republican side. And there it is, Oakland County picking up here, almost 9 of the vote for uncommitted, and thats the big question, as you are seeing, how is that going to do statewide. One thing to keep mine in the democratic side, thats not a huge deal in The Grand Scheme of things, but the delegate rules are different on the democratic side. Delegates are given out by congressional districts, and anybody, including uncommitted, which is not a person, but uncommitted, if it hits 15 in any congressional district, is going to start collecting convention delegates. So, thats one thing to keep in mind. Oakland county, its obviously significant on the democratic side. But i think the real test for uncommitted, is going to come just first of all in wayne county, that is obviously where detroit is, but it is also where the city of dearborns. Dearborn, a majority arab American City of about 110,000 people. It also has the largest concentration per capita of muslim americans, of any city in the United States. Deerbrook in wayne county. And then you go right next door, to county, this is a big college, this is where the University Of Michigan At Ann Arbor is. It is also where Eastern Michigan University is. And youve certainly seen that storyline of young voters, college age voters, especially in the democratic side, expressing strong displeasure with joe bidens handling of the israelhamas war. And, if that is going to turn into votes against biden, it of a protest nature. If you are not seeing it in county, it is probably not going to be a big thing anywhere. That is all super, super helpful. And we will keep looking at that, weve got 10 at uncommitted there what are you, alex . I mean i think im, as we all, are looking at that uncommitted vote tally, just because the resistance to bidens position, and his policies of the war in gaza has been anecdotal. This is the first time we are going to get literally raw votes, signaling how much dissent there is within democratic ranks. And as steve point, so its not just in the Arab American vote, its also county, the university of michigan, ann arbor. Young people who are going to be critical to democratic success in november, seeing what they do. You know, i dont think its that surprising that thats where all eyes are, in terms of the democratic side of the race. But im really eager to see how much this protest vote a masses, and what the implications potentially could be forgetting even a delegate assigned to this cause at the convention. Yeah, and its interesting too, it is an issue where it is a little like abortion, in that it can really change depending on how you ask the question. So even trying to get Public Opinion, reliable. I mean i have seen within the last day or so, battling polls, that show large majorities favor a ceasefire, large majority favor u. S. Continue backing of israel. So. Well right, and even the uncommitted vote is the lump sum of just discontent. Some people want a ceasefire, some people just have bidens lost to them. Some people want a different policy prescription. There is also, so now as we look at the sport. The other question that i think is interesting tonight about, this is a little bit of a nerdy Political Science part. Hit me with your best shot. I am giving it to you. There is a little question of like, how much does campaigning matter anymore . I think this is sort of the interesting question in this era, particularly the way the media environment works, and how wellknown trump, is particularly. He didnt really campaign that much in iowa, it didnt seem to hurt him. Michigan is a place where nikki haley had a month in South Carolina, she raised money, she did events, she was up, up on the air there as you would say. And michigan, there is basically none of that. I think she did one event after South Carolina, they havent been running ads. And it will be interesting to see like, if we see, if its not her home state, but if there is ignorant between South Carolina and michigan, what actually campaigning adds up to for her, in how much she is able to move. I would also say that could be true for biden to. Because he has done a ton for labor, a ton for union workers. He was walking the picket line with the uaw, he has the endorsement of the president. And yet, if you believe the polling, Union Support for him is soft in the state of michigan, which means that national concerns about whether its his age, or whether its inflation, i know you have a lot to say on that topic. But the hard and true facts of what he has done for workers in that state seemed, in some cases, we will see how it bears out tonight, to not be running as much to his benefit as you would think they would. All right, i want to bring in now nbc White House Correspondent mike who is live in dearborn, michigan. And mike, what are you hearing, and what are you looking at tonight for us . Well chris, its been so interesting, because weve been talking a lot about President Bidens perceived vulnerabilities heading into his reelection year. Democrats worried about his polling, or just the Public Perception of him. But when you talk to the Biden Campaign, the response has often been what the president himself always says. Dont judge me against the almighty, judge me against the alternative. Well what makes michigans primary tonight so interesting, is that essentially, almighty is the alternative. Voters who are casting a vote, not for joe biden in the democratic primary tonight, are not voting against him per se, they are voting for what they believe biden should be, in terms of their highest ideals. And obviously first and foremost, that comes down to whats going on with the war in gaza. Thats been clear as i have been here in dearborn all day, talk to voters who are casting that uncommitted vote. We are right now at an uncommitted watch party. Have you ever heard that befo