Parties are headed in and how they will stack up this november. Consider the scores of down ballot races. Microcosms of a country at war with itself over its priorities and its politics. The Premiere Matchup in california, where leading the volatile u. S. Senate race polls moderate adam schiff against the Liberal Democrat katie porter and republican exballplayer steve garvey, who has surged in the polls, even while barely campaigning. In North Carolina, maga voters could elevate a trump endorsed Culture Warrior in the fight for governor. And one of the countrys few true battleground states. Texas voters, ground zero for what is increasingly the top Campaign Issue in the country. What to do about the border. And across the country, 115 congressional primaries are being decided as we speak. With democrats needing to flip just four seats to take control of the house. All of that providing valuable exit polling data, informing Campaign Strategies with extraordinary stakes that include the future of reproductive rights, immigration, voting rights, criminal justice, and, of course, the overarching stake, the future of democracy. We have two hours to provide insights into all of that want extraordinary show of force. Our correspondents fanned out all across the country and talking to voters in 13 states today. A lot to get to. It brings us to the top of the ticket, the president ial primaries. It is clear that both president ial biden and donald trump are beyond anxious to get to what will be an epic rematch, fully under way. Both are so close to clinching their partys nominations, well, get ready, 2024 is likely to be the longest general campaign in u. S. History. Well, my focus is really at this point is on biden. We should win almost every state today, i think every state. Were going to have a unified party because our real opponent happens to be named biden. Theres so much at stake. Democracy, freedom, economic opportunity. If you havent voted yet in the primary season, go to i will vote. Com to find out where you can vote. Think of the alternative, folks. If we lose this election, youre going to be back with donald trump. Nbcs ali vitali is following the Haley Campaign from Mount Pleasant, south carolina. Okay. This is the one name on the ballot that is not trump or biden. And Everyone Wants an answer to this question, what is haley expecting today, and maybe more so, what is she going to do after today . Reporter look, i think i can answer one of those questions for you, chris, which is that haley is expecting to do as well as she can here. I know thats vague, but the campaign has purposefully been vague when i asked them repeatedly what does success look like, where on this map do they think they can notch a win. They got their first and what could be their only win on sunday night in washington, d. C. Primary. Now, though, theyre looking ahead to Super Tuesday and it is going to be a question of coalition building. You look at places, for example, like in virginia or in vermont, places that haley spent a little bit of time in this ramp up to Super Tuesday. Thats where they think they can cobble together a coalition like what we saw her do in New Hampshire, where it is not just your traditional republican primary voter, but maybe it is folks who want an alternative to trump, maybe it is independents, maybe it is even democrats who can play in this primary before ultimately going home to the Biden Campaign in november. But when i talk to voters in a state that is more ruby red, a place like texas, this is what those Republican Voters who showed up to haleys last event last night had to say to me. Watch. So, what happens in 2024 if it is trump versus biden . Are we on camera . Biden probably. For you . Since i was 18, im a strict republican, but im not going for trump. I would stick with the Republican Party, definitely. Even if it is trump . Yes. Thats the split that i hear at Haley Campaign events. I would say two to one they say theyre going to stay home and vote and or vote for biden or go home to trump. It is a split bag at this point. But for haley, thats the point. The idea that in her being the nominee, it could take some of the electability guesswork out of the Republican Partys game in november. Of course, as we have said before and we need to say again, you dont get to a general election without getting through a primary and that is the Haley Campaign difficulty at this juncture. I will also add for you, chris, i just spoke with a Haley Campaign official in the last few minutes. Theyre calling themselves today a bunch of happy warriors. They say at least here in the Mount Pleasant and Charleston Areas they are listening to music. Some of it a little bit on the nose including the drake song started from the bottom. Now they are here and well see where they go next at this point. All right. Ali vitali, out on the campaign trail, thank you so much. As she always is. Lets go to the big board, nbc National Political correspondent Steve Kornacki is with us. Steve, we know nikki haley would like to stay in this race. That said, what is she up against tonight . She is up against some pretty harsh realities of Delegate Math, of state rules about who can vote, and how those delegates are distributed. Lets start with if nikki haley makes noise tonight, where would it be . Where would we look . First polls to close actually, two states here that could be quite friendly to her. One is vermont, winner take all state. If you get the majority of the vote in vermont, you get all 17 delegates. Vermont was not a good state for donald trump in the 2016 republican primaries. You look at the results here. Trump got 32. 5 in vermont, barely beat john kasich. This was one of trumps worst showings in 2016. No Party Registration in vermont, independents, democrats, if you think of yourself as one of those, you can vote in this republican primary. Right away, that could be a target for nikki haley. Also closing at 7 00 tonight, take a look in virginia, again, look at the 2016 results in virginia, trump won this state, but that was an underwhelming performance for donald trump relative to what we saw in other states. Youll see this population dense washington, d. C. Suburbs of northern virginia, they do give out some delegates in virginia that are based on the Congressional District result. There is three delegates right in that northern virginia, d. C. Area, three districts where haley could certainly win. And could collect some delegates tonight. Well see if shes able to make the state wide race in virginia a competitive one. Other places you might look tonight for nikki haley, minnesota, colorado, the delegates, though, are given out on a proportional basis, so whether she actually technically wins the state or loses the state, it is not going to alter the Delegate Math too much. If she could win either one of those, that would be a big coup for her campaign. The problem for her is even if she has success, some kind of success in the states i outlined, shes looking at california, this is a closed primary. No independents. No democrats. It is a winner take all primary. 50 plus 1 take all the delegates. 169. Can donald trump get a simple majority in a closed primary . All the evidence suggests he can. Texas, 161 delegates. Very conservative electorate, very trumpfriendly demographics. The rules that make this not quite but close to a winner take all state, thats more than 300 delegates between those states and unless haley is pulling the rabbit out of the hat, trump is getting the overwhelming share of those 300 plus delegates. Arkansas, alabama, oklahoma, tennessee, very favorable demographics to donald trump. Rules in terms of how the delegates are allocated, they make a lot of those states winner take all or close to winner take all states. Just by winning in the states ive outland here for donald trump, he stands to get a massive delegate haul and by getting some of the delegates in colorado, some in minnesota, some in virginia, some in vermont, thats not going to get haley very far, just in terms of the math. And, again, unless shes winning, multiple states, outright winning multiple states where nothing we have seen in the primary results and nothing we have seen in the polling so far suggests she has much of a chance unless she does that, this trump number is going to get very high, close to a thousand. And this haley number will go up, but not by a ton. That would be one of the greatest political upsets if she wins any of those states. Steve kornacki, who almost certainly will still be at the big board this time tomorrow, we thank you for all of that. Much appreciated. Okay, so lets talk about the two prohibitive favorites. Garrett haake is with the former president outside maralago. And nbcs Aaron Gilchrist is covering President Biden. Listening to the former president , it seems like he can barely wait to dispatch of nikki haley. What is the rush and what does the Campaign Hope to get out of tonight, maybe some voters he struggled with in other states . What is their goal, just to end it . Reporter yeah, i think thats exactly right. Even though shes not winning states, every time nikki haley is on the ballot and gets 20, 30, 40 of the vote, she exposes a vulnerability that donald trump has within the republican electorate and the general election electorate at large. The Trump Campaign would like to shut that down as much as possible so they can to the degree it is possible with the candidate that they have pivot toward the general election and try to focus more on joe biden and less on this, you know, intermural republican fight. So they would like to try to put this away. They understand they cannot win the nomination outright mathematically tonight, but with a big enough sweep, they hope that perhaps they can push nikki haley closer to the exits. All of that said, the former president continues to kind of not be able to quit nikki haley, cannot quite keep his focus on joe biden even when he wants to. He spends at least some portion of every Media Appearance or Campaign Appearance making sure to attack her and even when he suggests shes not winning, not doing that well, hes giving her more oxygen to stay in this fight. All right, so, aaron, joe biden doesnt have a nikki haley. He isnt facing any real competition in these states. But can todays results or tonights, i guess, is more accurate, tell the campaign some things heading into the general . Yeah, i think so. You have the Super Tuesday voting that is happening today, combined with the State Of The Union speech the president will give on thursday and this is really a point in time where i think the campaign is looking to really ramp up its efforts to get the general election process under way. We are going to hear President Biden in his state of the Union Address on thursday talk about what he believes his successes have been so far in his administration. And then also talk about what he wants to do in the future, and you combine that with the reality around what the president has been saying about the former President Donald Trump in the last few weeks and what he believes is the threat that he poses to democracy, those are messages that youre going to hear continuously as the general Election Campaign gets closer, the Biden Campaign is by all indications looking at today as one more big round of voting that will further solidify who the competitor for President Biden is going to be going forward. I also think, chris, were going to see in the next several days more talk about where President Biden is going to be going and what hell be talking about in terms of his outreach to voters. We know that this weekend hell be heading to philadelphia on friday, after the State Of The Union, and then to georgia to the atlanta area on saturday. We also just learned that former President Trump is going to be in Georgia On Saturday as well, and so well again well have the split screen moment as we did last week, but this times squarely campaign focused for both candidates and the reality around what the general election is going to look like i think will come into sharper focus, chris. As he heads to two of the handful of battleground states. Garrett, as ive been listening to donald trump and even just yesterday hes been pretty dismissive of nikki haley, even saying he lost d. C. On purpose. Do you get any sense that the political realities and dont mistake anything about donald trump, hes done pretty well using his own political gut, could those realities make him inclined to pursue what a fox news host called a peace deal with nikki haley . Would he find her support useful, do you think . I think ultimately that is something that the Trump Campaign is going to want, whether donald trump wants it or not is another story, chris. Because he takes politics quite personally a lot of the time here, and if nikki haley doesnt come back to him with an apology and coming back on his terms, he may not personally want her support. But his campaign is sophisticated enough to understand that they do have a significant problem with women, with suburban voters, with independent voters, like those that nikki haley appeals to. Whether it comes in the form of and endorsement or some other effort to shore up his support with those demographics, if donald trump wants to be president again, theyre going to have to address that issue more completely because right now what hes been saying on the stump is basically if youre not with me now, i dont want you back later. And that is not a recipe for winning in a general election that is going to be decided by maybe 100,000, 200,000 votes in six states. That is wild. Garrett haake, even though i know it, you say it, and it is crazy. Thank you, garrett, Aaron Gilchrist, thank you as well. We got a lot more to cover here. Can haleys campaign give some clues for how to beat trump and what does it mean that she is the last republican standing . Were back in 60 seconds. N stang were back in 60 seconds everywhere but the seat. The seat is leather. Alan, we get it. You love your bike. We do, too. Thats why were americas numberone motorcycle insurer. But do you have to wedge it into everything . What . I dont do that. This reminds me of my bike. The wolf was about the size of my new motorcycle. Have you seen it, by the way . Happy birthday, grandma really . Look how the brushstrokes follow the line of the gas tank. Hey hey brought my plusone. Jamie . I know what its like to perform through pain. If youre like me, one of the millions suffering from pain caused by migraine, Nurtec Odt May help. Its the only medication that can treat a migraine when it strikes and prevent Migraine Attacks. Treat and prevent, all in one. Dont take if allergic to nurtec. Allergic reactions can occur, even days after using. Most common side effects were nausea, indigestion, and stomach pain. Relief is possible. Talk to a doctor about nurtec odt. Does todays potential last stand for nikki haley tell us about the enduring power of donald trump. Haley and her supporters far outspent the competition, about 100 million of the 300 million spent overall by eight candidates. But with the exception of d. C. , where only about 2,000 votes were cast total, haley lost every primary by double digits. Still, shes clearly frustrated by detractors. I dont know why everybody is so adamant that they have to follow trumps lead to get me out of this race. And then there is the Unanimous Supreme Court ruling that allows trump to stay on the ballot, as the Washington Post succinctly puts it, to anyone hoping that trumps efforts to overturn the last election would lead to judicial system to meaningfully penalize him before the next one, recent developments have proved sobering. Joining me now, former White House Communications director, former Communications Director for hillary for america, msnbc political analyst and cohost of msnbcs How To Win 2024 podcast jennifer palmieri, senior msnbc political analyst matthew dowd. Jennifer, nothing nikki haleys campaign has done so far has put her in the winners column. D. C. Excepted. She just keeps losing. I wonder is patience a virtue here . Is she wasting her time . Do you have a different thought, particularly based on your experience as someone who knows what it is to be on a campaign up against donald trump . Yeah, she is never going to be the republican nominee, but as long as she stays in, shes helping joe biden. If you look at what happened to the republican primary, i think biden comes out in pretty good shape, we learned, i think New Hampshire, there was going to be some kind of Energy Be