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Ayman

want to take part in the caucus on monday night, they've got to go actually change their party registration. and so we are looking at the majority major share of the caucus electorate tomorrow night, meaning that that republican base. and, the polling suggests the strong -- in donald trump's favor. in just a few hours ago, donald trump called his solo event here of the weekend, a rally about 30 minutes south of des moines, where there were hundreds of folks who came out in negative 40-degree wind chill to come see donald trump. now this is not a caucus, but this was just a rally. i want to let you listen to a conversation i had with a woman named betsy from just a couple of blocks away, for that event that is taking place. this is her first time caucusing, and in this poll that just came out here from nbc news and des moines register, more than half of those who are first-time caucus goers say they support donald trump. betsy, she is one of them, take a listen. >> if trump's in my town, that is fabulous, i will knock the snow down to get here. >> did you caucus a few years

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Decisive battleground

Decisive battleground
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Velshi

caucus, say they're extremely enthusiast about their support. compare that to 49% of the folks who say donald trump. they were extremely enthusiastic about supporting him. that is something that is permeating across the electorate. not just here but across the country. that is where the election that i am looking at, those independent and democratic voters. here on caucus night, they can change party registration. i just was massaging with two, one independent and one democrat last night, asking them even with this weather, do they intend to come, change party registration for nikki haley. they say they won't do that. in an effort to take down donald trump. frankly, how much weight does that actually carry? potentially a marginal, you could see an uptick of three or 4%. this is due to independents and democrats who come to help nikki haley. that three or 4% could be enough to knock out rhonda scent is tomorrow night, give port momentum going to new hampshire, knowing independents

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Americas Newsroom

that's up from december. >> i'm not worried. look, i'm not a political pollster, i'm not going to worry about the numbers. what i am going to say is the momentum and the energy on the ground is strong. we feel it. we know that this is moving in the right direction. >> reporter: so it might be a decision that some folks know that they've already made, they're going out there tonight, might be a last minute decision for other focus. we will see. we know that, of course, the roads still here in des moines don't look that great. you wonder about how those county roads look like in those rural areas. guys? tayeday aishah, you look great out there in your carhart. bill: four-wheel drive, that's what we call it. nikki haley could see a surge in if support from democrats tomorrow night. some iowa democrats and independents planning to crash the caucuses and become republicans for a day to vote for her. iowa allows day-of party registration, and democrats are

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Americas Newsroom

she's talked to a lot of people, and politico said, yeah, don't take this for granted. it says don't be so certain trump has the nomination locked up. here's a path for a nikki haley upset. your thoughts. >> there is a very narrow way. she has a strong showing here, and i think it's so interesting what you guys were digging into, democrats and independents may show up for her and she heads into new hampshire with the wind at her back, chris christie's folks have dropped out, do they come to her? most of them, that's probably her option, we could have a race on our hands. that's a lot of ifs. you guys know what the weather's like here, you've got to be motivated to get out tomorrow night. if you think you're going to change your party registration for one night when it's -30, i don't know. bill: good point. and if it is 3% of all caucus goers who choose to do what we're describing here, what is the impact on a front-runner who's got a 20, 25, even a 30-point advantage? enter yeah. and, you know, she's -- we talked about this looking inside

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Velshi

hampshire donors to change their party registration in new hampshire, unlike here in iowa. they can go and take part. and we are looking at potentially, you know, 40% of the republican primary electorate in new hampshire, a little over a week from now, being independents. registered independents here. so, by and large, that could really give nikki haley a boost. but with chris christie stepping out of the race, he was pulling out about 12% there. frankly, chris christie, what was so striking about his what you could call concession speech the other day was not only his clear disdain for nikki haley, but also, you hear that among voters. you know, at conversations with one voter here in iowa, who is not following every single punch of this political process here. but she told me that she viewed nikki haley much more in the lane of ron desantis and donald trump, because of her advertising, her messaging, as opposed to the asa hutchinson, chris christie, liz cheney lane,

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Katy Tur Reports

registered democrat asks registered independents can come and change their party registration on caucus night. i have gone and crunched the numbers. only about 10 to 15% of usually the caucus turnout are the independents who changed their registration. in new hampshire, i don't expect a huge wave of them to make a great impact here. there's another component of this over the last eight years. a great many former republicans have left the party, not only to become independents but democrats. we have seen in three election cycles in a row that there was a conservative constituency at one point. you could call it democrat today. the question is do those folks feel invigorated by a nikki haley campaign, and come out and change registration on a night when it's going to be less than 0 degrees. i had a phone call with one

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Deadline White House

turn people out for monday. >> and yet the prognostications are that donald trump is possibly going to win with a bigger lead than most anybody has ever won in iowa. >> reporter: that's what we're looking at here at this point. i've talked to numerous republican party activists, those that don't like him, including the former chair of jeb bush's campaign in iowa, and there's sort of a shrug of the shoulders. this is the state of play here. iowa is not a state where independents can come take part in the republican caucus unless they actively go change their party registration on caucus night. right now at 7:00 p.m. next monday night, we are looking at a negative 25-degree windchill at 7:00 p.m. when caucus doors open on monday night. and so what are you looking for if you're a presidential

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Way Too Early With Jonathan Lemire

national polling, is very close to what you're seeing in iowa. the only discrepancy is there is more of a ground game there for ron desantis built by never back down. there is one for nikki haley built by americans prosperity. they're doing better in iowa, but it is very tough for trump to lose right now. he is in a more commanding position than any republican has been in that primary. compare it to george bush in 2000. compare it to h.w. in 1980. there's not much precedent for how well he is doing. new hampshire is the competitive primary. nothing else on the calendar in the next month is as close. that is largely because of non-affiliated voters in new hampshire, independents, the people that chris sununu is personally appealing to. democrats who switched their party registration, some who i met in new hampshire, who wants to slow trump down. iowa is next, but there is a sense when you talk to republicans that new hampshire is the one that donald trump is worried about. if you look at the campaign spending the last few days, that is where the trump campaign, their pacs are starting to

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Gray TV poll shows Landry leading in primary, potentially competitive runoffs

Gray TV poll shows Landry leading in primary, potentially competitive runoffs
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