Pennsylvania, they will change the name. They will change the name. How the Keystone State has become the crucial battleground. s co what the Harris Foundation is doing is so important. When all in starts right now. Good evening from new york. Im chris hayes. The Labor Day Holiday is over its a first tuesday in september. First day of tuesday in november, its happening. We are two months out, 63 days to be precise which means the sprint is sent to the finish and republicans are getting nervous about one thing in particular. Party leaders on Capitol Hill are warning their donors, they need more money to compete with democratic spending. The head of the republican Party Senna can obtain told political the only thing preventing us from having a great night in november is a massive financial disparity the party faces. Lets be clear. Its a Fundraisers Job to sound panicked and asked for money. Maybe youve seen that in phone techs you receive. Donations have been through the roof since trump became the face of the republican party. This race looks different. In this case it looks like some of the panic is warranted. We dont have a full August Fundraising tally yet from both campaigns. In july, the his campaign raised 310 million, more than double the 138 Million trump raised in the same period. The Spending Gap has rarely, if ever, been to this day. Look at the key Battleground States with the situation for republicans is so stark. Look at those numbers. Pro harris groups are spending roughly 10 times as much as Pro Trump Groups and biting political ads in michigan, nevada, North Carolina, and wisconsin. Three times as much in the state of arizona. Thats according to political Data Analysis from Add Impact which tallies these buys on television. That they call us so spending disparity. Its the kind that might make a difference. There are two Swing States where despite the huge disadvantage right now in fundraising, republicans are keeping pace from democratic spending and it tells you where the race will come down to. Those Are Georgia and pennsylvania. In those states, Pro Trump Groups seem to be prepared to be outspent everywhere else that is in play but not in Georgia Or Pennsylvania where they are matching pro harris spending almost dollar per dollar. The reason for this . Its the Electoral College. The bizarre antidemocratic system of president ial voting this is no matter how many people vote for you for president , you still need 270 state electors. A system that is caused enormous problems in america like when george w. Bush and Donald Trump both lost the Popular Vote but won the elector cora lunch. In 2020, it was the Perverse Incentive in the machinery of the Electoral College the provided trump with the opening to try to steal the election with among other things, fake collectors, plan that culminated in the January 6 insurrection. That was the day the Electoral College votes were going to be tallied. The Electoral College is still there, its in the constitution, operating in the background in every strategic position, but campaigns need are determined by it. What you are seeing in the spending of the trump campaign, i think, they have one main pass to victory that they appeared to be putting literally all their money. That is this map. Envision these results. The same as 2020 except, so everybody holds the states the party won except Donald Trump flips two states. Georgia which Joe Biden one by 11,000 votes and pennsylvania. That gives him 270 electoral votes to 268 to Kamala Harris. Under that scenario, trump becomes president again. A Nightmare Mapper democrats. Heres could sweep the rest of the Battleground States a win by millions of votes. 5 Million votes, 6 Million votes, it wouldnt matter. As the Washington Post pointed out, trump can hold North Carolina, the only one of these he wont go in 2016 and 2020, and he takes georgia pennsylvania, he wins over harris. That map is a high risk, high Reward Strategy for republicans. The reason were talking about this is that at spending we showed at the top of the block. What is very clears pennsylvania is absolutely crucial pivotal to that. As you mightve gathered from trumps last rallies. When im back in the white house, mayor come in future will be here in pennsylvania. Pennsylvania is always a big factor. Weve had great success politically and otherwise in pennsylvania. The workers of pennsylvania, pennsylvania, pennsylvania, pennsylvania. Its a very consequential vote in pennsylvania because they say, if you win pennsylvania, you will win the whole thing. We cannot let these people win pennsylvania. Pennsylvania is almost as crucial for harris as well. If she wins there, she leads the polls but in the margin of error. All the states will be close. If she wins there shes in good shape. She can win and Longshot Scenarios without pennsylvania. She could hold Georgia And Flip North Carolina which democrats have won in quite some time. For both campaigns, the Keystone State looks like a true keystone to victory. Thats borne out in the campaign this week. Harris and President Biden rallied in pittsburgh on labor day. The campaign Sing Harris will return there on thursday. A running mate Tim Walz is beginning his own trip to multiple parts of the state of pennsylvania included lancaster on wednesday. Even Doug Emhoff is expected to campaign in allentown, pennsylvania. Trump is expected in Harrisburg Tomorrow to fill my Town Hall with Sean Hannity of fox news. Other than that he has no major campaign stops this week. Im joined by Nbc National Political correspondent steve kornacki. Its good to see you. 63 days from now. You have your stamina built up . I found the spending data pretty fascinating. Indicative of where they see the raise. And like you said, the importance of pennsylvania and how direct the path is. You hold North Carolina fear trump. Less than 12,000 votes in georgia and then pennsylvania. They think their opportunities there in pennsylvania maybe a missed opportunity in you put it that way, you can see the interest. From both campaign standpoint, the one thing to keep in mind is in either case, if you lose pennsylvania, its the largest of the Swing States for electoral votes. 19 of them. Georgia 69 carolina 16. Michigan 15. If you want offset a loss in pennsylvania, it requires two other Battleground States. Thats the key map. Lets look at this 270 map. Which we were showing before. Youve got nevada, arizona, wisconsin and michigan, p does not win those. He does manage to win pennsylvania, flips georgia, and told North Carolina, thats the narrow 270268. And appears were to get wisconsin, michigan, and pennsylvania, and nothing else, she would have to hundred 70 as well. If she loses pennsylvania, she has to offset it with two from the Sunbelt States. Its the first among equals. One of the Nightmare Scenarios keeping me up at night but i dont think is a possibility more likely was when biden was in the race and it looked like he would have to hold the Blue Wall and is pulling in nevada looked really bad and to the extent they were pulling the single congressional around omaha, he had a shot of holding the Blue Wall even losing Nevada And Arizona and georgia, holding the one congressional district and just getting 270. I worried about what that would mean afterwards. Pressure on nebraska lawmakers. That narrow path seemed different now that nevada seems to be pulling in a different way. Nevada, they are a state to pull there and its always been demographic opportunity. You have that huge bluecollar, White Population trending. Harris has made strides with nonwhite and hispanic voters. Young hispanic voters. Where are you going to find voters like that, less likely you find them in wisconsin, michigan, pennsylvania. You will find them in Sunbelt States so theres more opportunity for democrats down there, but that being said, biden winning georgia, thats the first time a democrat won that state since 1992 and it was just under 12,000 votes. Arizona was 10,000 votes. These are extremely narrow margins that biden took these states by. Theres a pool of sort of political history there that keeps the states winnable for republicans. This two aspects about Georgia And Arizona, something weve been talking about and and as you been briefing us. There is the polling but then theres the kind of people living in the kinds of places they are in the voting groups, democrats do better within the Trump Era versus republicans. One of the things that characterizes Georgia And Arizona is as enormous metro areas as a share of total vote for the state. Georgia, the atlanta area, phoenix area, as democrats have done better in metro areas including the suburbs, thats been a richer pool of votes for them and part of the map that allowed them to pull off. Metropolitan areas suburbs are fastgrowing. The Atlanta Metro areas fast growing. Thats with the democrats, counties there the democrats were losing by 30 points 20 years ago. Or macron may. Think a now win by double digits. They are rapidly diversifying and filling with democratic friendly demographic. Youve got that in Georgia And Arizona. North carolina is interesting because it sort of fixes for democrats. The research triangle, Raleigh Chapel Hill area. Mecklenburg county where charlotte is. Youve got that if youre a democrat but if youre a republican and you look at North Carolina, democrats have been flexing their muscles in the metro areas but trump has been in rural counties across the state. Not just rural counties but midsize counties. Relatively speaking, there is a larger bluecollar, white, White Population is assure the electorate in North Carolina. Offsetting trends which weve seen an election after election. Midterms. You see it in texas with the metro areas, Harris County, democrats winning 12 years ago. Now they win Harris County pretty reliably. Dallas suburbs better than 12 years ago but the margins in the rural areas in texas, they are going from 65, 35, 75, 80 20. You can talk about a state like wisconsin too. The suburbs outside milwaukee are still republican suburbs. A lot of suburbs have gone. The same is happening there. There becoming less republican. Its hurting republicans whats happening in the suburbs but in wisconsin, trump is upset a lot of that. The offset all of it in 2016 and he one the state. He nearly offset it in the rest of the state in 2020. Democrats have to worry when you look at the bowling,s clothes in these battlegrounds but it was true biden and true of harris. Her best numbers tend to be coming from wisconsin, michigan, pennsylvania, lets see more polls, but we so with biden in 2020 and receiving it with harris now. It has been with noncollege white voters and they are in abundance in those states. Theres a Question of whether they adjusted properly. Everyone has been doing a lot of work on this. There is a Question. s payment you cant adjust for nonresponse bias. You can take every precaution to say we need the right number of noncollege white folks in the survey did be representative but there are noncollege white voters who will vote democratic. At the republican ones arent answering the phone, you will get the democratic ones. If youre selecting the variable, i dont want to talk to you because im talking voting for Donald Trump. Its difficult to model. Thats the asterisk that comes with every poll, particularly those states. If you look at 2020 georgia looks incredibly good. About georgia pooling, in races that were close, Georgia Polling held up pretty well. Wisconsin there was the famous pull in October 2020 that had biden up by 17 points and he wins the point by a fraction of a point in the end. Is every poll you see from those states, thats the asterisk that comes with it and we wont know until election night. Its great to have you here. Will do this more. Pull show Kamala Harris gaining Ground Son trumps go to issue. Safe steps best offer, just got better now, when you purchase your brand new Safe Step walkin tub, youll receive a free Shower Package. Yes, a free Shower Package and if you call today, youll also receive 15 off your entire order. Now you can enjoy the best of both worlds the therapeutic benefits of a warm, soothing bath that can help increase mobility, relieve pain, boost energy, and even improve sleep or, if you prefer, you can take a refreshing shower. Allinone Product Call now to receive a free Shower Package Plus 15 off your brand new Safe Step walkin tub. The border, the actual the border, the actual physical place, thousands of 9[f [5vll the obsessively about that might be starting to shift. In april, poll showed Donald Trump Clobbering Biden on the issue of immigration which has collapsed. Voters say they trusted the Ex President more by 17 points. The latest edition of the same poll released on sunday, trumps advantage has eroded considerably. He leads harris by s Nine Point on immigration. Theres a few things at play. Remember, members of senate worked with republican senators to hammer out a bipartisan Bill But Trump ordered senate republicans to abandon their own bill to kill it out of cynicism hoping the problem would get worse so it could benefit him so he could have the Headlines T about chaos at the border. The fact that trump ordered republicans to abandon their own bill was mentioned just about every 20 minutes and the democratic national convention including in Kamala Harris is t exempt in speech. Theres something else at play. This stunned me when i saw the data. This chart shows apprehensions by u. S. Border patrol at the u. S. Mexico Border October 2020, still in the thick of covid, until july 2024. Okay . You can see it start slow. The pandemic. Not a lot of people crossing. I want to bring your attention to it started in january of this year. Look at that, the numbers fall sharply. Then continue to trend down. The latest data from July Show Border Encounters were at their lowest erpoint since September 2020 in the teeth of the pandemic. I think thats notable. No one is ringing the bell about that. We oonly hear about the border when crossing several. The underpinnings have changed. I think it created different terrain for this issue. The one Issue Trump wants to nt run on. The one hes confident enough wants to talk about all the time. Part of what shifted the issue was that bill. The negotiator was Chris Murphy of connecticut who joins me now. Senator, we talked a bunch through the negotiations of the deal. The Announcement And Trump killing it. Throughout the time you said we have to tell the american people what we have done here. Did you have the same impression i had at the dnc which in the list that whoever wrote in a Cue Card for top five messages of the dnc, the Border Bill was in the top five. Yeah, for once weve been good and consistent about a message and its a simple message that is true. Republicans talked about the border but didnt care about it in fact they wanted it to be a mess because it was their oxygen. The way in which they convince be scared. Of folks who came from a different country or spoke a different language. When they were presented with this bill that would have dramatically declined the number of people arriving at the border, they panicked. They realize they might lose this issue electoral he. Donald Trump Toll his pals in the senate to vote against it. We called their bluff. They said they wanted to fix the border and we gave them the bill that wouldve done it and they voted against it and it exposed to the country the real agenda which is to complain about immigration and complain about the border trying to divide americans. The message is really simple. You can tell the story and 15 seconds. Democrats and republicans wrote the toughest Villain Decades and Donald Trump killed it because he wants the border to be a mess. It speaks to the underlying insincerity people believe is at the heart of Donald Trump. Its not a hard story to sell. The convenience of being true as well. Ie 100 true. Devils advocate Question. Republicans will make this argument. One of the arguments during negotiations was the president unilateral power. Legislation as a crutch and after that trump killed the bipartisan legislation and the president did take some Executive Action at the Border And Weve seen this huge drop. Everyone wanted to because of affect, you press a button, tens of thousands of disparate Human Beings making decisions under calculated decisions. What do you say to people who say we didnt need a bill . The president Push The Button and the numbers go down . It is true that actions of o the Biden Harris Legislation have crossed of it being lower today than at Cthe End of the trump administration. The combination of good and smart diplomacy with mexico. Diplomacy that wont be available to Donald Trump. He will have an antagonistic relationship. Due to the fact the biden administration ended up implementing through Executive Order on sections of t