Transcripts For MSNBC The Beat With Ari Melber 20241001 : vi

MSNBC The Beat With Ari Melber October 1, 2024

Their debate should not be the last word. Im trying to debate Donald Trump again, and i city he should debate again. And as you say ear in las vegas, im all in. Im alln. The Vice President seems almost thrilled about the reality that she is all in proposing another debate and he is running from it. But you know the big news if you follow politics, because Trump Wont do another debate usually theres more than one between the nominees i can tell you that tomorrow by the current schedule will mark the last debate of this whole president ial cycle. The Running Mates, of course, facing off for the first and only time in their debate tomorrow. Senator vance arrived in New York today. Governor walz is in michigan with his team. And we are told just like the nominee debate, the running Mate Debate also has weeks of Debate Prep. Transportation Secretary Buttigieg stood in for Vance And Walzs preparations while tom emmer, also a minnesotan played walz for vance. Now, Vice President ial debates are not known for deciding the race, but remember, these two campaigns are statistically tied in all the key Swing States, which means even small development, let alone a big gaffe, could still matter a lot tomorrow night. The Harris Campaign is riding on momentum from endorsements right now. Some are expected and simply useful for a democratic base like the New York times Editorial Board formally backing harris today, which you see along with the prestigious New Yorker magazine. Neither outlet was expected to go maga. Other endorsements for democrats, though, have come through the would have been unthinkable before the trump era. Top general crystal speaking out in support of harris today. Or those ebig bush republicans like Dick Cheney and former Attorney General gonzalez coming out for harris as well. Now, that tough and controversial general, you might recall, was removed from duty for criticism of biden in 2010. Hes not only endorsing harris but speaking out in articles and interviews about her, her character, and the stakes. When we look at Kamala Harris, we look at her history, she came up as a prosecutor, an Attorney General, into the senate. She has lived a number of experiences that i think build in someone the kind of character thats going to be necessary in the presidency. We should elect them for the character, because we dont know whats going to come up. You dont know whats going to come up. Thats a person whos definitely exercised command positions, life and death. And this wider embrace of harris by veterans of national security and conservative politics, these individuals, it is exactly what Vice President harris discussed and tried to highlight before that big audience at the debate. I actually have The Endorsement of 200 republicans who have formerly worked with president bush, mitt romney, and john mckaine. Including Dick Cheney and liz cheney. I have talked with military leaders, some of whom worked with you, and they say youre a disgrace. Now, that was just then. The endorsements now coming in. Early voting sundays way. And then as for the more traditional support i mentioned, that New Yorker cover, magazine calling harris the sensible, humane, and liberalminded choice. Saying much of this is beyond debate. The times endorsement notes that Kamala Harris is a contrast to trumps standing alone as a dedicated Public Servant whos demonstrated care, competence, and an unwavering commitment to the constitution. Harris is balancing campaigning with governing today. She took time off the Campaign Trail to meet with Ukraines Leader amidst that war over there. Today she canceled Campaign Events and is addressing the devastation from hurricane helene. Across the south at least 116 people are dead. Hundreds more missing. And you can see here just some of the thousands of destroyed homes and businesses that are visible here. The devastation, fema briefed the Vice President on the Recovery And Rescue efforts. This photo is courtesy of her office. She just late today spoke from fema headquarters. I have spoken with Governor Kemp of georgia, Governor Cooper of North Carolina, and many local officials. I have shared with them that we will do everything in our power to help communities respond and recover, and i have shared with them that i plan to be on the ground as soon as possible. But as soon as possible without disrupting any Emergency Response operations, because that must be the highest priority. The Vice President there discussing the priorities, what she learned in the briefing. For his part, Donald Trump visited Southern Georgia in response to the storm and has addressed it. He also head held rallies in wisconsin, pennsylvania over the weekend. While trumps aides and allies say there are many things to be running on, Donald Trump is doubling down on the Rhetoric And Conspiracy theories he has long used as a political and Pr Kind of ploy to try to hijack political attention via outrage. This is an old playbook. Sometimes what were seeing over this weekend involves a more extreme version that we shouldnt normalize, but a more extreme version of what is fundamentally the same playbook. That does present now familiar challenges. This is true for citizens, for people in politics, for people in the press, when youre faced with this, when do you confront and fact check these kind of claims and when do you decide, again, as a citizen or whatever role you see yourself, to decline a temptation of Outrage Driving Overreaction to this individual. I can tell you the New York times reports that trumps Weekend Addresses were notably escalating the attacks. They were dark and often rambling. Other Outlets Fact checking false claims and lies by trump about his opponent and about immigrant communities. Trump also openly vowing to abuse government power. Something weve reported on many times here, including evidence of how hes done so in the past. Sometimes rising to crimes, sometimes not. He darkly suggested that Kamala Harris should be impeached and prosecuted. So trump is now having crossed this next line about harris, hes now publicly, loudly agitated for the prosecution of every democratic nominee hes ever faced. The first one, clinton, who drew more votes in 2016 but did not win the Electoral College. The second one he faced, current president who beat him handily. Donald trumps first impeachment was over his convoluted and failed foreign plot seeking the prosecution of the bidens in ukraine. A place that has much bigger problems than Donald Trumps attempted bribery shakedowns. And now completing this is harris. And this part of what i mentioned is this tendency he has, it is larger than rhetoric. Donald trumps plans to wield power in the second term are available for scrutiny. They are more extreme than the first term with whatever you already think of the first term and know about the first term. And so it goes beyond rhetoric to his attempt to normalize what he would really do. But while i am being careful to mention these things and not treat them as just ignorable or normalized, im not playing clips or footage of the lies. One of the reasons you have to be careful with taking Donald Trump live is to review what is worth airing and what im showing you to know about is not something we think rises to the standards that we are choosing to air it. There are also politically and this is a political race signs that what i just referred to is not working anymore for Donald Trump the way it used to. Its possible politically that it helped trump somehow in that very first time that he tried the move of vowing the prosecution of then hillary clinton, his nominee democratic nominee. That was back in 2016. Some real, much of it exaggerated, especially with regard to her. But now were in the third installment of this. And if it is politically failing, which is a separate point from whether sit valid, acceptable, consistent with democracy or law, that brings us to how Donald Trumps own allies and other concerned parties in the gop are knocking this. They dont think this is working. They think just about anything would be better. I think we should stick to the issues. I just think the better course to take is to prosecute the case that her policies are destroying the country. I have said for years that trumps divisive rhetoric is something that we could do without. Thats just a smattering of the reaction to the most recent. And so we are witnessing something here that is familiar, and for some people might be fatiguing. Of course, a lot of important things can be tiring but also has notes of a different possible outcome. That always depends on everybody, you watching or listen to this, everyone else in the country who has a role to play, but it does have signs of something different. There is not a complete Meltdown Overreaction to every single thing he says or lies about. Nor should there be. Thats a journalistic assessment. And there is more of a concern creeping, growing in public among people who still want republicans to win in 36 days that this might not be it. Now, what about those very close Swing State polls . What about where were headed . What about the latest numbers . As we get this close, a little over a month out from the race, we are going to start bringing you our expert at the big board. You know what it is, you know what hes probably wearing, and you know what he has a handle on. 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This is the average of all the major national polls that are out there right now. You do see harris three points ahead of trump in the average, 49 , 46 . But i think you were mentioning this last segment, trump has lost the Popular Vote the last two elections. He lost it by 4. 5 points to Joe Biden last time around. This would be tighter, closer to what we saw in 2016 when trump was able to stitch together just enough states in the Electoral College to get elected. Take a look at where the Battleground States stand. You see trump ahead. These are very small numbers, the overall story here, slightly ahead in arizona. A state that went for Joe Biden four years ago that trump carried in 2016. Georgia trump by 1. 1 on average there. Trump lost georgia in 2020 after winning in 2016. You do see harris with the advantage in those three Rust Belt state, midwest state, Big Ten states, whatever you want to call them. Michigan, pennsylvania, wisconsin, harris with advantages there. All three won by biden last time around. And in nevada for harris. Notably this one in North Carolina Kamala Harris is ahead here. Its 0. 2 of one point on average, but the significance of income from an electoral College Standpoint is this. All of these states except North Carolina went democratic. They went for biden in 2020. Trump is trying to play offense in those states. Anything he wins here are additional electoral votes that he did not get in 2020. North carolina is the one state here he did win in 2020. The its one state where the democrats are playing offense. And its got 16 electoral votes. Georgia and North Carolina have the same number of electoral votes. If this were to be what happened on Election Night, and thats a massive, massive if, but if trump were to get georgia, he would pick up 16 electoral votes which he would then lose by losing North Carolina. One basically wipes out the other if theres a Split Verdict there. The overall picture you see here, extremely tight in these states. And the question i think that hovers over all of this is we saw polling misses at the State Level in 2016 and in 2020. They were really kind of similar where we saw them and among which group of voters we saw them. Michigan and wisconsin, last time around the poll misses were significant there. You had sizable mid to high single Digit Biden leads in those states coming into election day. And they ended up being razor thin, especially wisconsin. Wisconsin was just 20,000 votes in 2020. Pennsylvania, some issues there as well in the polling. So if that miss happens again the same way, these become very encouraging numbers for Donald Trump, but we wont know, obviously, until Election Night if thats happened once again. Makes sense, steve, and puts it in context because we hear so much about those states in isolation, youre reminding everyone what the winning coalition was last time. You have a breakdown on a Brand New Nbc Poll of latino voters, tell us about that. Another major questions hovering over this election, and one that was posed four years ago, trump lost in 2020 but made gains with hispanic voters. A Big Question has been would he lock those gains in and is there any chance he could actually build on those gains. That would shake up potentially the electoral map. Heres our poll, nbc news, cnbc, telemundo. A 14point Lead for harris. But the context is this. What were showing you here, these are the Exit Polls from the three previous elections. 2012, Obamas Reelection in the Exit Polls he won the latino vote by 44 points. Hillary clinton by 38 in 2016. Joe biden by 33 in 2020. Now you see how much lower than all these other numbers that 14point harris advantage in our poll is. So it does suggest that trump has continued to make gains with hispanic voters, even after improving in 2020. Whats behind this . Theres a gender gap, its sizable, among hispanic men, tie race, among women, large Harris Lead right there. Theres an Age Gap among hispanics under 50, the race is almost a tie, harris ahead by three points. Its hispanics over 50, she leads that group. We asked hispanic voters on these particular issues and characteristics which candidate do you think is better. Harris gets her biggest score on abortion. We see this in polls of the entire electorate too. And that question of being competent and effective as president , harris with a sizable lead there. Then it flips over, Economy And Inflation, at or near the top when you ask voter what is their major concern is in this election, and trump with the advantage. Nine points on inflation. Then theres this one on securing the boarder and immigration. Asked in our poll which candidate is better on that, hispanic voters by a doubledigit margin, 13 points, saying Donald Trump is better on that. And that part in part, i think, may reflect a bit of a shift in attitudes among hispanic voters, overall attitudes, towards immigration. We asked this Question Eeight years ago and we easked it again just now. On the whole, do you consider Immigration Something that helps the United States more than it hurts it or hurts more than it helps . Hispanic voters in 2016, 69 said helps more. 16 prosecute said hurt. Eight years later that has come down. Its more than doubled. Attitudes here have shifted to some degree over the last eight years. And i think that is the one other thing here in this trump era, well call it. Trump comes on the scene in 2016. Still here in 2024. This is a massive change. And im showing you what it is right now. You ask latino voters which party do you more identify with. The democrats do have the advantage. 49 to 37 points. But look how this has tightened. The last three elections before this. Look, in

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